The Scottish Play - Act II of MMXX

The Declaration of Arbroath from Charlie Stuart on Vimeo.

McVitie: It might have been an internecine feud
Taggart: Aye, that or a fight among themselves
(Taggart: Death Call, 1986)

Weird times indeed, and Covid-19 is just part of it. So now it looks like Alex Salmond is determined to live up to the Stuarts' motto, Nemo Me Impune Lacessit, which translates more or less to Don't Fuck With Me Or Else... And we're told to just wait for Big Eck's Book Of Revelations, which rumour says will be something like invoking Den'Sha on anyone who, ye ken, fucked with him. Book hits the shelves, shitload of shit hits the fannies. Now let's just expect Big Eck will be wise enough not to trigger an all-out SNP civil war, as these sort of fights generally don't end well for anyone. Interestingly the fault lines within the SNP, and the root of all their current woes, basically overlap: Eckites vs Nicolistas, TERF vs Woke, New Fundamentalists vs Gradualists. You name it, you got it. Let's just hope now that some modicum of sanity will prevail on both sides of the Great Divide, and that the selection of Holyrood candidates will not turn into a massive cats-in-a-bar-brawl. We already have one in Edinburgh Central and we definitely don't need others, especially in the SNP's open seats and in the current Labour-held seats that are ready to fall. A truce is the price for victory.

If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of you enemies will float by
(Sun Tzu and Gil Grissom, CSI: Homebodies, 2003)

© Anonymous, 1745 or aboot

No invader can hold an imprisoned population by force of arms forever
There is no greater power in the universe than the need for freedom
Against that power, governments and tyrants and armies cannot stand
(Ambassador G'Kar, Babylon 5: The Long Twilight Struggle, 2259)

Few new IndyRef2 polls lately, but they all say the same thing. The good news is that we have reached a plateau for some time now, with Yes and No statistically tied. The bad news is that we have reached a plateau for some time now, with Yes and No statistically tied. Whatever each camp says or does it's No 50.5% / Yes 49.5% and stuck there. Of course Kenny Farquharson's prophecy that Covid-19 would hurt Independence because the English government would handle it so well has fallen flat on its face in a pool of chemical waste. But day after day of gloomy news means the public have no reason to be overly rejoiced with the Scottish Government's response here either, no matter how consistent and efficient press briefings made it sound in the early stages. Then you can't dismiss the idea that the Calderwood fiasco, which is much more than just a PR disaster, will also shake some 'soft Yes' voters. Because even unrelated events can influence the answer to a straight Yes-Or-No question, just ask anyone who ever held an unlosable referendum and flunked it. Anyway here's what the trend of IndyRef2 polling over the last five years and some says: better now than ever but still not good enough.

The most recent polls totally point in that direction with one tie, two No victories and two Yes victories in 2020 polling. Now the Scottish Government and the SNP must really up their game as their Plan A is only bound to fail again and again. In this scenario there is only ONE No vote that matters: the one from Number Ten. And don't even think that would change in the unlikely event Keir Starmer ever becomes Prime Minister, as he and his sidekick Ian Murray now have the magic word that will allow them to paint the Yes Movement as doctrinaire naysayers: federalism. Don't even try to argue that it would never work in an England-dominated United Kingdom, they just won't listen. Remember this is the party that allowed the first devolution referendum to be deliberately sabotaged from their own ranks, and then passed only a weak devolution settlement as distant from federalism as can be. So it's definitely time to switch to Plan B, the Cherry option, which would certainly already have been endorsed by the First Minister if it did not come from the Eckite-TERF corner of the field. Fortunately the SNP will have plenty of time to refine their strategy, as there is a reality that I find self-evident while many others don't: IndyRef2 won't happen until 2022 no matter what path the Scottish Government chooses. And that also gives the SNP all the time they need to hone their campaign soundbites and remember that managerial proficiency might win a Scottish Parliament election, but it won't win independence. Just sayin'

We are star stuff, we are the universe made manifest, trying to figure itself out
And, as we have learned, sometimes the universe requires a change of perspective
It broke itself into pieces to examine every aspect of its being
We are the universe trying to understand itself
(Satai Delenn, Babylon 5: A Distant Star, 2259)

© James MacLean, 1970

It's not about the size of the dog in the fight
It's about the size of the fight in the dog
(Officer Andy Renko, Hill Street Blues: El Capitan, 1985)

We haven't had a real general election poll for Scotland since 11 December on Election's Eve, which doesn't mean we don't have clues on how Scotland would vote now. There have been 22 GB-wide polls since the December election, 20 of them with subsamples for Scotland totalling 2,676 respondents. Even if subsamples are less reliable than real polls and subject to random variation, this batch nevertheless paints a rather constant picture of Scottish public opinion. We also have three recent Holyrood polls and, even if it's a different election with different voting patterns, they also shed an interesting light on Scotland's current state of mind. Below are my seat projections based on what would happen if Westminster voting intentions duplicated current Holyrood constituency voting intentions (more on this below), which might be irrelevant, or might not. Just note that the Scotland subsample of the last general election poll from Opinium would deliver the same seat projection as the Holyrood polls. Then we have what the subsamples of GB-wide polls predict, month by month and globally. And it's only getting better for the SNP as time goes by. Make sure you never mention that to Jackson Carlaw, as it is his strongly held belief that Covid-19, and the masterful way the English Government handles it, hurts the case for Independence. Just let Jackson be a good Tory, the kind that would never let facts get in the way of a good soundbite. Or would he?

Of course nothing is carved in stone and we definitely need a full Scottish poll soon. Though it is already safe to predict that the main battleground will be the closest Con-SNP marginals (West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway) and the Conservatives might even have a shot at taking back Gordon. Then the major casualties would be the Liberal Democrats with their predicted vote share plummeting in Scotland just as polls say it would all over Great Britain. This is obviously the direct backlash of Brexit falling off the radars for now, and center-right Europhiles switching back to the Conservatives to show unquestioning support for The Precious Union. Which would only marginally help the Conservatives in Scotland, but wreak havoc on the LibDems. Jamie Stone, Christine Jardine and Wendy Chamberlain are definitely toast, and even Alistair Carmichael could be endangered, just as he was in 2015 when he held his seat by just 817 votes. But let's just be Curticely cautious here, as once again the next general election in Scotland might not be the Conservatives' to win, but the SNP's to lose. Just remember 2017.

One more bud to blossom and then you'll sing
One more fear to sting, love is what the victors bring
(Ichabod Crane, Sleepy Hollow: Dead Men Tell No Tales, 2015)

© Martin Gillespie, 2020

Buy and donate on Skerryvore's website

If you do the right thing for the wrong reasons
The work becomes corrupted, impure and ultimately self-destructive
We need the right people in the right place at the right time
(Lennier, Babylon 5: Comes The Inquisitor, 2259)

Now we also have the third Holyrood poll of 2020, conducted by Panelbase on 24-26 March. That is more than three weeks after the first case of Covid-19 was reported in Scotland and 11-13 days after the first reported deaths. So if there is any early Covid-19 effect influencing voting intentions, it was surely there already. There is also no Salmond Effect visible here after the verdict, and the next poll will tell us is there's any Calderwood Effect after the well-publicized fiasco. The new poll we have now is interesting because Panelbase were the least SNP-friendly pollster in 2018 and 2019, but their two 2020 polls have taken a very different direction. Since their methodology has not changed, we can safely assume that voting intentions have quite convincingly moved in the SNP's direction. And again this last poll does not show the Unionist vote coalescing around the New Great Leader Jackson Carlaw, but just the Holyrood Conservative vote aligning with their Westminster vote. The same trends are seen here as in Westminster polling. First the end of the Brexit Effect with right-wing Europhiles switching back from the LibDems to the Conservatives. Second a steady flow of pro-independence left-wingers switching from Labour to the SNP. On 13-14% Labour would have their worst performance outside European Parliament elections since the First World War while the SNP's voting intentions on the constituencies would be their best result ever in any election. So here are the voting intentions and my seat projection:

Early projections based on the rounded voting intentions in the press release delivered 'only' 70 SNP seats and 3 Greens. Then I got the complete crosstabs from Panelbase, that allow vote shares to be recalculated with decimal places and the headcount rose to 71 SNP and 4 Green seats. What a difference a decimal place makes..... And it only shows how close some of the list seats would be. Compared to the earlier headline-based projection, the Conservatives would lose one list seat to the SNP in North East, and another to the Greens in Mid and Fife. The reassessed allocation of list seats by region includes some interesting effects of AMS's quirks. Mostly that the SNP's voting intentions are high enough to get them list seats even in regions where they already bag all or almost all constituencies. In the constituencies the SNP would unseat all three remaining Labour MSPs though all three would probably hold on to a list seat. Which would be easier for Daniel Johnson and Iain Gray as both sitting Labour list MSPs in Lothian are standing down. Will be just as easy for Jackie Baillie in the West as two-term Labour list MSP Mary Fee has indicated she's standing down too. So we'll miss the fun of seeing Labour's Depute Leader out of Holyrood and a job. The SNP would also kick out Alex Cole-Hamilton in Edinburgh, which would be mechanically compensated by the LibDems gaining one list seat in Lothian, so all Alex has to do is to also top the list.

Of course, and as I pointed out in my previous article about future Scottish elections, every new poll is ground to reassess tactical voting. Again Both Votes Or Not Both Votes for the SNP. The projection of this poll's voting intentions by region shows that the seventh list seat could be a close call between the SNP and the Conservatives in Central, Glasgow, North East, South and West, with the Conservatives bagging only the West Scotland Seventh by a projected 350 votes. Greens would not even be truly competitive for any of these seventh seats. So it definitely makes sense to stay with an SNP list vote in all regions where the SNP would bag the seventh seat by a narrow margin, and switch it from the Greens to the SNP in West to secure an additional pro-Indy seat. Even in Lothian the Greens would come third behind the LibDems and Conservatives for the seventh seat and miss it by nearly 4,000 votes, so there is really no chance that even a massive switch of SNP voters would save their second seat there. The only region where shifting the list vote from the SNP to the Greens makes sense is Mid and Fife, where the SNP would not be competitive for a list seat and the Greens would win theirs by an uncomfortably close margin of only about 250 votes. Obviously this might change again after the next poll, especially if list voting intentions are less favourable for the SNP and better for the Greens. Finally here is the full projected breakdown of seats by region:

Just bear in mind that this poll is the best for the SNP since October 2016 and the second best since the last election, actually among the top five best since the Scottish Parliament was re-established and much better than any polling prior to the so far most exceptional 2011 election. Future ones might not be so good, especially if the election is postponed. Which looks like just a distant prospect right now, but you never know... It ain't over till it's over, so stay tuned for further updates and upsets

Adventurers strike at the heart of the bear
But first seek the entrance to its lair
Yesterday returneth not
Today is thine, misuse it not
Tomorrow perchance cometh not
(Taggart: Flesh And Blood, 1989)

© Colin Maxwell, 2013

Sing A Song Of America

© Paul Kantner, Marty Balin, 1986

If the primates that we came from had known
That some day politicians would come out of the gene pool
They'd have stayed up in the trees
And written off evolution as a bad idea
Hell, I always thought the opposable thumb was overrated
(John Sheridan, Babylon 5: A Distant Star, 2259)

There is not much happening on the polling front in the UK right now, and what little happens is pretty depressing anyway, so this is as good a time as any to take a look at the events in the Former Colonies Of The Crown. 'Tis this time again, like every leap year, when the world braces itself for the Big American Election Circus, the one where everyone's fate is at stake from the White House's tenant to Daly City's dogcatchers. This year's Election Day is Tuesday, November 3rd (that's American for 3 November). All 435 seats of the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats so far are up for election, providing no more Senate special elections (that's American for by-elections) are triggered before Election Day. Gubernatorial elections will be held in 11 states and elections for the state legislature in 44 states. The latter are especially significant this year as the 2020 census is the start of the next redistricting cycle (that's American for Boundary Review). Redistricting is mandated by law to happen every ten years on the basis of census data and to be completed for the next elections, this time the 2022 midterms. All districts (that's American for constituencies) for the House of Representatives and state legislatures are to be redrawn, the sole obvious exception being the at-large seats for the six states that are entitled to only one Representative (and you already got it, that one is American for MP). In the USA this is a highly sensitive and politicized issue as redistricting is devolved to the states. In 36 states redistricting is processed by the state legislature and more often than not this results in heavy-handed gerrymandering. Two states use a 'political commission' outside the legislature and only six use a totally independent commission. So this year's elections will decide what the electoral maps for 2022-2030 look like.

There is no speculation in the USA about Covid-19 leading to rescheduling the elections, because it won't happen. Only the primaries and special elections due to be held before Election Day will possibly be impacted. Contrary to popular belief the date of the presidential election is not enshrined in the Constitution, only the process is. Article Two, Section 1, Clause 4 of the Constitution devolves the responsibility of setting the date for Election Day to Congress and the famous 'Tuesday next after the first Monday in the month of November' (in plainer English, that's first Tuesday of November unless it also happens to be 1 November, in which case Election Day is moved to 8 November) is stipulated by law only since 1845. Before that it was pretty much a free for all with each state choosing their own dates as the election was held over a long period of time like in Medieval England, pre-1918. This law (Title 3, Chapter 1, Section 1 of the United States Code) has never been amended since and has fuck all chances of being amended any time soon as Inauguration Day, the day the President-elect assumes power (20 January since 1937, was 4 March before), is enshrined in the Constitution and can be changed only by a constitutional amendment that typically takes a year or more to ratify. A classic American legal oddity. More importantly the Constitution also states that the outgoing President's powers cease to exist at noon on 20 January. So it's pretty much loophole-proof and if everything goes tits up they would most probably resort to mandatory postal vote, as setting up a secure nationwide electronic voting system would take more than the few months remaining between an hypothetical full lockdown and Election Day. Postal voting is already fairly common and three states have already made it the only legal way to vote, to avoid the cost and bother of having to set up proper polling stations.

Before I start with the heavy stuff and all the charts, remember that colours are reversed in the Former Colonies Of The Crown, which is one of the lesser quirks of a country that uses 'short' tons that are neither tonnes nor tons and would be more appropriately called 'light' tons, if that makes any sense at all. And it's also the country where not just streets have no names, but districts don't have any either but just numbers. Anyway Republicans are red and Democrats are blue. Libertarians are yellow and Greens are surprisingly green, though it does not matter as neither bag enough votes to deserve their own line items in my stats. So they and the myriad of fringe candidates will be bundled as 'Others' and grey, because, ye ken, there are fifty shades of it.

Intelligence has nothing to do with politics
(Londo Mollari, Babylon 5: Point Of No Return, 2260)

© Jim Morrison, 1971

You seek meaning? Then listen to the music, not the song
(Kosh Naranek, Babylon 5: Deathwalker, 2258)

The biggest headline material is of course the presidential election and at this moment the Democratic Party's primaries.  The Republican primaries were just a formality as Donald Trump faced only token opposition and has already secured 94% of the primary vote and enough delegates to clinch the nomination at the Presidential Convention due to be held 24-27 August, Covid-19 permitting. The Democratic Party primary was a much more crowded affair with 29 candidates initially though only 11 ended up actually running (which, as you know, is American for standing). Then they fell like flies as the primaries went by until only two were left on 19 March: Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. A lot has been said about Sanders being a socialist, which in the USA is something akin to 'atheist communist traitor to be exorcised immediately', but remember this is the USofA where Nigel Farage is considered mainstream right-wing. The closest approximation to Bernie's actual platform (that's American for manifesto) would be the SNP. No shit, Sherlock, just compare the Political Compass charts behind the links. Sanders is not even as far to the left as Corbyn's Labour was. And Biden would be something like a past-sell-date Ed Davey, which is as far to the left as you can go to be deemed 'electable' by the American MSM. As a starter, here is where both candidates stand right now after 30 states have already held their primaries: 

Neither candidate has yet reached the 1,990 pledged delegates (those chosen in the primaries and committed to support a specific candidate) required to clinch the nomination on the Convention's first vote. But 1,677 pledged delegates remain to be chosen before primary season ends, so Biden needs less that half of these to get his majority. There is every indication he will get them and even more and will win the nomination on the Convention's first vote without any suspense. In the unlikely event of a massive Sanders surge that would deny Biden his majority, the Convention would go to a second vote where the pledged delegates for the other candidates are freed from their pledge and can switch to either of the finalists, and the superdelegates (the ex officio members selected from the Democratic Party's establishment) also get a vote. Both these categories would bring more support to Biden, so here it would end anyway. Forget what you saw in Season Six of The West Wing, you won't get a brokered convention as it would take at least three finalists anyway. So Biden will get to take on Trump head on, probably after also playing the 'Sanders unelectable' card during the last stages of the primary campaign. But nationwide polls paint a more nuanced picture, as the trends of the 2020 polling show:

Polls actually do show Biden doing better than Sanders but both still lead Trump by a significant enough margin, outside the polls' margin of error. But don't take that as a definitive prediction that Trump will bite the dust. Despite all what polls have to say now, the outcome of the election is a huge unknown. Will the divisive Democratic primary leave only some bruises or deep wounds? Will Biden's triangulation lead him to endorse some of Sanders's proposals? Will Trump's dismal handling of the Covid-19 emergency cost him votes in key states and key demographics? Knowing full well that the Christo-fascist demographic will support him no matter what because it's 'us and them' and 'them is unpatriotic'. Far-right propaganda blogs and Twitter trolls have already set the tone: Democrats are to blame for everything including Trump's U-turns and PR disasters. Won't end well. And even the current weighted average of the most recent polls is not that good for Democrats. Of course it shows both Biden and Sanders in the lead, but the projected results are definitely uncomfortably close to Clinton's performance in 2016, and anyway might move in unforeseen directions until early November.

Bear in mind too that nationwide presidential polls have to be taken with extreme caveats, even more than John Curtice can provide in his whole lifetime. The last batch of polls before the 2016 election credited Hillary Clinton with a 3%-4% lead over Donald Trump in the national popular vote and Democrats felt pretty confident she would win. In the end she won the popular vote by 2.1% and 2.9 million votes and lost the election. Because that's how this antique American invention known as the Electoral College works. Clinton actually lost the election by 77,744 votes out of nearly 137 million votes cast. That's Trump's total margin in three key states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) that Barack Obama had won in 2012 and would have taken Clinton just clear of the 270-vote hurdle in the Electoral College. The aggregate of state-level polls in the last week before the election had predicted that Clinton would win all three. Current state-level polling says only Michigan is realistically within reach of the Democrats but with only a tiny lead, with Sanders doing slightly better in Michigan and Wisconsin, and Biden doing slightly better in Pennsylvania. The massive paradox with the Electoral College is that Democrats could win the popular vote by a higher margin and still lose the election. Just imagine they increase their already solid margins in California, Illinois and New York and somewhat close the gap in Texas, Florida and Georgia but still lose them. Thus they could bag something like an extra 1.5 million votes and all these would be wasted votes as they would change fuck all in the Electoral College. Which is what projections based on state-by-state polling hint at right now:

The best extrapolation from state-level polls says that Biden would win, but not that convincingly, and Sanders would lose by a hair. But as usual there is more here than meets the eye at first glance. Biden would possibly gain Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio but lose New Hampshire. While Sanders would possibly gain only Michigan and Ohio and lose none. But all of Biden's possible gains definitely rate as Tossup (that's American for tied) so there is not yet a definitely clear path to victory for him. What Democrats actually need is to switch bigger key states like Florida and Pennsylvania, which Obama won twice and Clinton lost. But both now look like uphill battles and quite possibly totally out of reach. Even if Biden seems to have a stronger baseline and would destabilize Trump in more states than Sanders, odds still are he will fail in most if not all of the currently tied states and Trump will prevail pretty much the same way as four years ago.

The avalanche has already started
It is too late for the pebbles to vote
(Kosh Naranek, Babylon 5: Believers, 2258)

© Frank Zappa, 1977

Sometimes, before you deal with a problem, you have to redefine it
There's no need to embarrass our leaders by pointing out the flaws on our side
That they're aware of and dealing with in their own way
Some people just enjoy finding fault with pur leaders
They're anarchists, troublemakers, or they're simply just unpatriotic
(Political Officer Julie Musante, Babylon 5: Voices Of Authority, 2260)

This year's Big Thing, next to the presidential election, is the swarm of Senate elections. 35 seats are up (33 scheduled 'Class 2' seats and 2 special elections) with 23 Republican incumbents and 12 Democrats. These seats were last up in 2014 when the Democrats lost nine seats and control of the Senate. All this has led to wishful speculation that Democrats might retake the Senate this year. Of course there are limits to this line of reasoning. The most obvious one is that these same seats had been up for election earlier in 2008, the year of Obama's first election and an excellent one for Democrats down-ballot, even in notionally Republican-leaning states. So some sort of backlash was to be expected in 2014, though the actual results looked like overkill, and changes in voting patterns over the last six years make it likely that 2020 won't be another golden year for Democrats. Here is my current assessment of the 35 races, based in part on the punditry's views and in part on state-level polls. The nine seats lost by Democrats in 2014 are in bold italics:

It appears right now that only Colorado can realistically be gained back by Democrats, with North Carolina a more distant possibility. Democrats also have a few less obvious opportunities for pickups (that's American for gains, and also a variety of cars, but that's a different story). Arizona is the most likely, for the seat that was once held by the late John McCain. Here the evolving demographics favour Democrats but they will have to rely on a strong GOTV drive targeting Hispanic voters, usually a low-turnout category. Democrats are optimistic about this because that's how they already gained Arizona's other Senate seat in 2018, which had been in Republican hands since 1994. What will also help Democrats is that their candidate Mark Kelly has huge name recognition as a former astronaut and now a popular author, while Republican candidate and outgoing Senator Martha McSally was appointed to the seat after McCain's death, not elected, and has a history of losing elections more often than winning them. Four-term veteran Susan Collins of Maine is also in the danger zone in a Democrat-leaning state. Collins has a strong record as a 'moderate Republican', which is somewhat to the left of Gengis Khan, but her unwavering support for Trump during the impeachment proceedings might well seal her fate with a slightly left-of-center and independent-minded electorate. Another upset Democratic gain could happen in Kansas, allowing for a serious serendipity factor. Republicans lost the incumbency bonus here with four-term veteran Pat Roberts retiring. Republican candidate Kris Kobach is also kind of an extremist even by Trumpian standards and already lost the Governor's election to a Democrat in 2018. Moreover a Democrat-backed independent nearly caused an upset in this very same seat in 2014, cutting the Republican lead by more than half on the previous election in 2008. So here's my current take on the possible outcomes of these Senate elections:

The 'Democrats Max' option, though not the most likely outcome, would in fact mean Democrats taking back control of the Senate as the two Independent Senators caucus with the Democrats (that's 'take the Democratic whip' in Westminster English). Of course we also are on shifting ground here as Senate races are always highly personalized and a massive opportunity for candidates' past sins to come back and fuck them in the arse. There is also a massive downpour of corporate funding in these elections, especially as there is no such thing as dark money in American elections since the Supreme Court's Citizens United ruling. The 2018 Senate elections cost about 1.1 billion dollars, that's some 30.8 million dollars per seat or 24.9 million pounds at current exchange rate. The 2018 House of Representatives elections cost 1.7 billion dollars overall, 3.8 million dollars per seat or 3.1 million pounds. Just for comparison the full cost of the UK's 2019 general election was about 45 million pounds, or the equivalent of 1.8 US Senate seat or 14.4 US House seats. Also campaign spending in the UK is capped at £30k per candidate, and most candidates don't even use that much as actual spending is about £70k per constituency, while in the USA campaign money grows on magic corporate money trees and the floodgates are permanently open, you just have to ask. Quite mind boggling, isn't it? Finally there is one Senate race that isn't on the radars yet but could soon be: Texas. After all Biden-Democrat Beto O'Rourke came within 2.5% of unseating Christo-fascist Republican Ted Cruz for Texas's other Senate seat in 2018, and Texas's demographics are evolving in favour of Democrats just like Arizona's. So pundits will definitely be looking for advance warnings of a possible most unexpected upset there. Polls don't foresee it happening right now, but you never know....

With our basic freedoms at stake, no response can be too extreme
There may be some minor and temporary abridgments
In the traditionally protected areas of speech and association
But only until this crisis is over
It is going to take the efforts of every loyal citizen to keep us safe
Eternal vigilance is the price for freedom
(Political Officer Julie Musante, Babylon 5: Voices Of Authority, 2260)

© Paul Simon, 1968

Additional music: Tony Kaye, Chris Squire, 1971

The universe is run by the interweaving of three elements
Energy, matter and enlightened self-interest
(Ambassador G'Kar, Babylon 5: Survivors, 2258)

Last but not least, the House of Representatives elections for all 435 seats. Five seats are currently vacant and four special elections will be held in late April, May and June. Looks like a waste of taxpayers' money so close to the general election but, ye ken, no taxation without representation. And there has been worse some times in the past with both a special election and the regularly scheduled election for the same seat being held simultaneously on Election Day. Meaning the winner of the special election sat only on the proverbial lame-duck session between Election Day and the swearing in of the new Congress on 3 January, and the winner of the regular election sat on the next Congress. In most cases the same person won both elections but, believe it or not, it has happened, and not just once, that the two elections were won by different candidates. Last such case was in Michigan in 2018 when Democrats won both the special and the general in the 13th District, but oddly had selected different candidates for each election. But there also have been cases in the past were one party won the special and the other won the general in the same district. American logic. Right now, the trends of polls since the beginning of the year are definitely favourable to the Democrats, and the current weighted average of the six most recent polls confirms it.

Interestingly the current projection of voting intentions is strikingly similar to the result of the 2018 elections, pretty much the same situation we have with presidential polls. This is based on nationwide generic polls which have been criticized in some cases as unreliable because of regional discrepancies in voting patterns, but many pollsters rely on much larger samples that is usual in other countries, to account for the much larger electorate. Democrats might also benefit from a serendipity factor here as more Republican Congressmen-women (that's the other American wording for MPs) are standing down than Democratic ones, so Republicans lose the incumbency bonus in about three times as many seats as Democrats, many of them being fortuitously marginal seats in states where the demographics favour Democrats like Georgia or Texas. The seat projections, based on my usual mix of uniform and proportional swings, show very little change from the outgoing House. Democrats are predicted to gain four seats: one each in Georgia, Minnesota, New York and Texas. Republicans would gain only one seat, and this would be only a virtual gain, for a seat in Michigan currently held by an independent who was elected as a Republican and later left the party in opposition to Trump's policies. Even the lower end of the projections, which looks unlikely on the basis of current polling, would still deliver a Democratic majority. The solid Democratic lead in the popular vote also seriously dampens the effects of gerrymandering, which is much more common in Republican states, and in some cases would probably totally annul them. As I stressed in an earlier post about Boundary Reviews in the UK, gerrymandering is far from an exact science and even the most heavy-handed examples can backfire.

But dummymandering is not the only case where supposedly astute gerrymandering goes tits up. An ad absurdum case of gerrymandering led to an unprecedented situation in Pennsylvania in 2018. The Republican gerrymander of the state's districts was so atrocious that it was struck down by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court in January 2018 and a new more neutral map was drawn for use at the general election. And that's where the fun starts. Two special elections were held on Election Day and had by law to be fought on the old court-annulled map while the general election was fought on the new map. So two Representatives were elected in the specials for districts that de facto no longer existed except for the duration of the lame-duck session, and both were simultaneously elected for different districts based on the new map. Only in America..... 

But even stranger things can happen if one of the candidates dies before Election Day, which sadly cannot be ruled out this year. You'd think the obvious thing to do is for the deceased's party to select another candidate and move on. But it doesn't always happen that way. If the 'event' is too close to Election Day (within four weeks in most states, but can be up to six weeks, or more practically if the ballot papers have already been printed) then we get another Great American Success Story: the dead person is not replaced and their name stays on the ballot so the electorate can knowingly vote for a corpse, and sometimes elect them. Of course something has to be done then and you guessed it: a special election and the fun starts again..... The only case I haven't seen covered is one of the presidential candidates dying, but then I guess it would trigger the 25th Amendment. The Vice-President-elect would be sworn in as President and then nominate his own VP.  And here we land in the alternate reality where everybody would sorely miss Trump as Mike Pence would then become President and he is an even worse shithead.

But, as they say, God only knows....

The future is all around us
Waiting in moments of transition to be born in moments of revelation
No one knows the shape of that future or where it will take us
We know only that it is always born in pain
(Ambassador G'Kar, Babylon 5: The Hour Of The Wolf, 2261)

© Leonard Bernstein, Stephen Sondheim, 1957

Additional music: David O'List, Keith Emerson, 1968

Prophecy is a guess that comes true
When it doesn't, it's a metaphor
(Vir Cotto, Babylon 5: The Very Long Night of Londo Mollari, 2262)

So, to wrap it up, here's my prophecy for today: this year's elections will not alter the balance of power and will end up as an odd mix of the 2016 presidential election and the 2018 mid-terms for Congress. And of course I will have a different one next time I tell you something about the USA, as we get closer to Election Day and new batches of polls totally contradict the ones we have today.

Joe Biden wins the Democratic nomination hands down on the first ballot with about 2,300 delegates.

Joe Biden wins the popular vote by 3%, but gains only Arizona and Michigan while losing New Hampshire. Donald Trump gets re-elected 283-255 by the Electoral College.

Democrats over-perform polls and stage a few upsets in the House of Representatives elections. They keep control of the House with a slightly increased majority, 245-190.

Republicans succeed in mobilizing their base in Senate elections and lose only Arizona and Colorado, while taking back the Alabama seat they lost only by inadvertence in 2017. Senate stays under Republican control 52-48.

Be seeing you.....

Without the hope that things will get better
That our inheritors will know a world that is fuller and richer than our own
Life is pointless and evolution is vastly overrated
(Satai Delenn, Babylon 5: A Voice In The Wilderness, 2258)

© Francis Scott Key, John Stafford Smith, 1814

Woodstock arrangement by Jimi Hendrix, 1969