Jeremy's Den: April 2022

My friends, as I discovered myself, there are no disasters

Only opportunities and, indeed, opportunities for fresh disasters

(Boris Johnson)

It’s tricky when you’ve made a career out of complaining about everything

And saying everything is going to turn to shit

When there’s a year when everything globally turns to shit

(Jon Richardson, Meet The Richardsons, 2021)

Wee technical note for a start: as of now, I keep all the images within the articles to their original size, and they are just automatically adjusted to fit the layout of the page. Just click on any image to get the full-size and more readable version of the chart.

Early this month, the UK seemed bound for a Spring Of Discontent over soaring energy prices and the worst cost-of-living crisis since double-digit inflation in the 1970s. Odds are it will only get worse, as the Bank of England warned that inflation at the end of 2022 could actually rise to double-digits again, and the UK is facing the real risk of a stagflation. The public also expressed serious doubts about the English Government's ability to tackle crime and improve policing, an issue that regularly comes up in their top three concerns, and was supposed be a strong talking point for the Conservatives. This created an atmosphere where public opinion would dismiss 2020 as the year when everything turned to shit, and select 2022 instead. And they could be right, as Rishi Sunak's dismal Spring Statement is bound to do jack shit to improve the UK's economic situation, when many key sectors are under pressure after the double whammy of Brexit and Covid. Of course, it's not necessarily all bad news, if it also in some way reduces the intake of cheap junk food. Every cloud... In the meanwhile, the general trends of election polls have become much less Tory-friendly over the last two weeks.

As usual, it's not always easy to keep track of the ever changing states of British public opinion, which are an endless enigma even for seasoned psephologists. Right now, the Conservatives are down, after flatlining on 35% for a wee while. Labour are still somewhat ebbing and flowing, but now many points ahead. It is indeed quite amazing that Labour haven't managed to secure a stronger lead over a long period, seeing how so many of the current government's policies look like hasty amateurish improvisations, that would have put their predecessors to shame. Trends also show the Liberal Democrats and Greens losing some momentum, meaning they will have less traction in any future government formation, if Labour manage to come out as the first party in a hung Parliament. As for the SNP... err... we'll come to that later.

Funny thing about getting older, your eyesight starts getting weaker

But your ability to see through people's bullshit gets much better

(Morgan Freeman)

Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge

It is those who know little, not those who know much, who so positively

Assert that this or that problem will never be solved by science

(Charles Darwin)

PartyGate has become juicy headline material again, despite Boris Johnson still being in denial about it, which is quite bad news for everyone who thought it was a good idea to go on a bender on government property during lockdown. With the first batch of £50 fines handed to some of the participants, Boris Johnson surely feels this thing is starting to get uncomfortably close to home. It was to be expected, and Tory candidates at the incoming local elections realise that he might again be more of a liability than an asset with voters. But public opinion seems to be going in a wholly different direction, if you believe the 'Preferred First Minister Of England' polls. Johnson has not yet caught up with Starmer here, but it's fucking close. The flag-shagging reflex after the invasion of Ukraine is still paying dividends. His impromptu one-day trip to Kyiv, and the mandatory photo-op with Volodymyr Zelenskyy, definitely looked like a good idea that couldn't possibly backfire. British public opinion still massively supports Ukraine, and delivering modern weaponry to their army is also seen as a reasonable option. This, against all odds, is probably what made Bozo's ratings improve beyond the believable, but it probably won't last that long, now that Bozo had slung more shit into the fan himself.

For the brighter side of things, Savanta Comres have just published the April update of their Political Tracker, including what you might call the Buddy Index. That's the same array of items they have used earlier, where you find out people would definitely pick Boris over Keir for partying. Which might not be Boris' favourite option these days, but never mind. But people would also pick Keir every time you mention some serious and possibly life-changing issue. Like assembling anything with a manual in Swedish or Korean. Of course, here as in other instances, many a true word is spoken in jest. And some of the items here definitely take a more ominous meaning when you link them to current major real-world issues. Like the cost-of-living crisis, protecting the people in time of crisis, upholding the rule of law and then some. Just try it and you will see that Keir definitely wins on all. But we still do not know who the public would select as their pub quiz team captain.

Of course, a better stand in real ratings or mock ratings doesn't mean the multiple law-breaking hoedowns, or other stories that have acquired a life of their own, won't come back to bite Bozo in the arse and finish him in due course. If they do, bear in mind what I said from the beginning when a vote of no-confidence was a genuine plausibility already: don't underestimate Sajid Javid. That's the mistake Dominic Cummings made when he picked a fight with the then-Chancellor and pretty much lost, at least in the public's eye, when Javid chose to resign rather than submit to the diktats of an unelected adviser. I still think The Saj, whatever his current ratings, is the clearest and presentest danger for Bozo, and also has all it takes to become a consensus candidate for the Anyone-But-Truss faction within the Conservative Party. You also have to admire the very smart way Javid made his own tax status a complete non-issue, by divulging all the gory details himself before anyone else mentioned it. If this is not evidence of someone ready to compete for the Big Dog spot, I don't know what is. Just watch this space.

The result, therefore, of our present enquiry is that we find

No vestige of a beginning and no prospect of an end

(James Hutton)

When small men begin to cast big shadows, it means that the sun is about to set

(Lin Yutang)

YouGov have also delivered an update of their favourability polling of 'senior' politicians. There is no seismic change here on last month's rating, except for one. Before we come to The One, Ben Wallace makes his first cameo here and will probably be relieved that a massive majority of the public have no opinion of him, because it could only be bad if they had. Quite reassuringly, Boris Johnson is still the Most Hated Man in SW1A, and Priti Patel the Most Hated Woman there, and I won't say sorry for 'gendering' them. Of course, the one tectonic shift here, as you probably expected, is in Rishi Sunak's ratings. Wunderkind now has a net rating of -29, down from -8 a month ago and -15 two weeks ago. This spells doom and gloom for him on many fronts. It's worse than Keir Starmer and as bad as Liz Truss. It's also Rishi's worst rating ever. Remember this is the man who bagged net positives for 14 months after he was appointed Chancellor, and very mild negatives for another 4 months after that. He used to be the most popular, or the least unpopular, in the Cabinet before it all started going down the drain with his botched Spring Statement, and only got worse with the revelations about his wife's tax-avoider status.

It definitely looks like the Chancellor in the long black coat is no longer the People's Chancellor, or the people's darling if he ever was, or the media darling he undoubtedly was. But it was all of his own doing, wasn't it? And watching the story unfold is closer to 'Dallas' than 'EastEnders'. Mind you, I'm not saying there's anything untoward in Akshata Murty's non-dom status or that it was fair to try and link Rishi Sunak to some massive tax evasion scheme. Unless I actually am, who knows? But Murty's change of mind about it all, just hours after Labour made the whole thing a political albatross, is quite close to admitting it was indeed fishy. I definitely can't help thinking that anything that has even distant ties with Russian businesses these days had the unholy scent of blood money, and surely Rishi and Akshata still have a lot of explaining to do. Rishi will certainly have plenty of time to do that from the backbenches, while he reflects on how stupidly he spaffed his political capital and scuppered his chances of becoming Big Dog. Then it got even worse with the PartyGate fines. Savanta Comres and YouGov have both polled their panels about these, and the verdicts are merciless.

Both polls deliver pretty much the same results. A strong majority of both panels say that Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak should resign, but the Savanta Comres panel, when asked an additional question, didn't believe that either will. Which is pretty consistent with what we know of their reactions so far. But public opinion clearly doesn't think an apology is enough, or that there are any extenuating circumstances here. Quite the opposite in fact, as the massively shared belief that Boris Johnson knowingly misled Parliament is an aggravating circumstance that should lead to resignation or demotion. Another YouGov poll shows that the public don't buy the Conservatives' excuse that we can't change Prime Minister for the duration of the Ukraine crisis. After all, H.H. Asquith and Neville Chamberlain were both sacked for incompetence in the middle of world wars, more serious crises by several orders of magnitude than what the UK is going through right now. And Margaret Thatcher was deposed while the UK was already preparing to get directly involved in the Gulf War. So there are probably fewer options left for Johnson and Sunak than they'd like you to think. Obviously, a lot of people across the Four Nations feel they have been badly let down by a government that should have been watching over them through the crises of the last decade and their fallouts, and never has. A shitshow of entitled arrogance now might be the last straw and the end of the line for both Johnson and Sunak.

A man who dares to waste one hour of time has not discovered the value of life

(Charles Darwin)

Totalitarianism in power invariably replaces all first-rate talents

Regardless of their sympathies, with those crackpots and fools

Whose lack of intelligence and creativity is the best guarantee of their loyalty

(Hannah Arendt)

It's been 54 days now since Vladimir Putin sent his mercenaries and his tanks into Ukraine on a rampage. The early part of this month was dominated by information about the atrocious war crimes committed by the Russian Army in Northern Ukraine. Massive backlash, from all corners of the political compass, has seen some of Putin's earlier apologists, like Nigel Farage or Marine Le Pen, backpedaling at flank speed and becoming harsh critics. Unsurprisingly, only Viktor Orban was unfazed, basking in the glory of his election victory, and even offered to pay Russian gas in rubles, a move that had been rejected already by the European Union. But one of the major unknowns is the attitude of the Russian people themselves, who are steadily described by Russian media as massively supportive of Putin and the 'special military operation'. I have found just one poll of the Russian public, conducted by Survation in late March. Of course, it needs to be taken with a whole barrel of salt and massive caveats, but it's all we have from non-Russian sources so far. The first question is one you also find in British polls: is the country going in the right direction or the wrong direction?

I included the crosstabs with the respondents' affiliation to one of the main Russian political parties, based on their remembered vote at the last general election for the State Duma, held in 2021. So, apparently the sole organised hub of opposition to Putin is the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which strikes me as a bit odd. The Communists are indeed part of the Putin System, and endorsed some of his policies like cooperation between the state and the Russian Orthodox Church, a state-approved view of Russian history and homophobic legislation. Basically, the Communist Party is something of an official opposition tolerated by the Putin clan, and also has some well-advertised porosity with Putin's party United Russia and far-right nationalists Rodina. A fair share of Communist voters are also probably seduced by Putin's appropriation of the legacy of Stalin and his conduct of the 'Great Patriotic War' in 1941-1945, in addition to the iconic Russian historical figures, Peter the Great and Catherine the Great. Overall, the current Communist Manifesto is an odd mix of traditional Marxism-Leninism, Russian nationalism, business-friendly policies and social conservatism. Which definitely makes them look more like a token opposition that a real force for reform. Survation also tested their panel's level of support for a number of institutions and personalities, on the same five-level scale commonly used in British polls.

The four people tested alongside Putin are the main key players in the Putin System, from left to right the Prime Minister of Russia, the Defence Secretary, the Chief of the General Staff and the Foreign Secretary. I think it would be short-sighted to explain the exceptionally high levels of support only by the effect of massive state propaganda, taken up a few notches since the invasion of Ukraine. Russian patriotism, quick to morph into unquestioning nationalism, has been part of the Russian psyche for centuries. While Tolstoy was pretty much a Christian anarchist, Dostoevsky was a shameless conservative nationalist who embraced the ideal of a Great Russia, as embodied by Peter the Great. More recently, Solzhenitsyn was an advocate of an ethnic Russian version of pan-Slavism, and supported a new Russia also incorporating Belarus and Ukraine. He also dismissed the Ukrainian view of Holodomor as extreme anti-Russian nationalism. Today's massive support for institutions and people who embody Russian national pride should thusly not come as a surprise, as it has deeper roots than just decades of indoctrination by the Soviet, and then the Putinist propaganda. Another key element in the Russian official talking points is the fight against Nazism, which was made part of the Russian national mythology by Stalin, and fully endorsed by later leaders. Putin using it now against Ukraine, despite its lack of credibility in the current context, is also a key factor in popular support for both the state and the 'special military operation' in Ukraine.

When you are dead, you do not know you are dead.

It's only painful and difficult for others.

The same applies when you are stupid

(Ricky Gervais)

I believe in everything until it’s disproved. So I believe in fairies, myths, dragons.

It all exists, even if it’s in your mind. Who’s to say that dreams and nightmares

aren’t as real as the here and now?

(John Lennon)

Survation also asked their Russian panel about the impact of sanctions on their everyday life. Only a tiny minority think that they will have no impact at all, or even a moderate impact. Significant majorities have no illusion at all, and agree that the sanctions will jeopardise their way of life. It is not just about inflation and shortages of imported goods. Their answers also point to a fear of isolation and anticipation of a financial crisis. The genuine recovery of the ruble, which has come back to roughly its pre-war exchange rates against the pound, is not enough to rule out a financial collapse in the coming months. First, we don't know how much of its foreign currency reserves Russia has spaffed to support the ruble. Second, the exclusion of Russian banks from the international financial system was slow to unfold, so the worst fallout is yet to come. Support from 'allies' like India and China is certainly not the panacea here. And, if they help, there will be a price to pay that could prove more detrimental to the Russian economy than the sanctions themselves. There is an interesting subplot here, about what could be the fallout of Putin's threat to cut gas supply to Europe before they decide to embargo it. Putin has quoted alternate customers to the East and the South, so obviously India and China. Which could massively backfire as China has already made it clear they will never pay for Russian gas at current market prices, but would demand bargain prices. So Putin's strategy looked like a good idea at the time, until it didn't.

Another important question was about whether or not the Russian public believe in their government's talking points about the invasion of Ukraine. As simple Yes-or-No on some salient catchphrases used by Putin and his Ninth Circle. Surprisingly, more than a third think that the 'special military operation' is not worth the price to pay, that it is indeed a war, and that Ukraine is a sovereign country. The last two hint that the poll might be fully kosher after all, as such opinions are punishable by 15 years in jail under Putin's new dissent-crushing legislation. Clearly, these contradict the majority opinions that Russia is a liberator and a peacekeeper here. This is probably linked to the Russian public's views of the 'independent' republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, who don't have international recognition and don't even cover the whole area of the disputed Donbas region. Of course Putin's goal has never been to see both operating as independent states, but to annex them, and at least one of the local separatist leaders has already admitted it. If and when genuine negotiations start, Putin's opening gambit will most certainly be Russian annexation of the whole Donbas region, and at least part of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, needed to secure territorial continuity with Crimea. Which is bound never to happen, as both the Ukrainian government and their European allies unambiguously demand a return to the pre-2014 borders. Which compromise, if any, Putin would accept to save face is a matter of conjecture.

One of the key issues for the next weeks is whether support for Putin will remain as high, now that the Kremlin has acknowledged 'significant losses', after earlier American and Ukrainian reports were dismissed. The death toll obviously exceeds an earlier estimate of about 10,000 and could be as high as 20,000. This was already an major issue in earlier Russian military operations, with the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers being a major component of the opposition to the regime and its violations of human rights, both within and by the military. The sinking of the cruiser Moskva has also been a major blow to Russian pride, besides being militarily very significant and warranting retaliation attacks. Support to the war will also certainly be eroded by skyrocketing inflation, already at 17% and rising, and a major recession, with GDP predicted to fall by 15 to 20% this year. It is also quite probable that the Russian financial institutions will soon run out of resources to support the ruble, and its value will not stay at an artificially high level for very long. The total collapse of the Russian economy, which was mentioned by French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire as the main objective of the sanctions, could be a crucial step in ending the war, and possibly accelerating Putin's demise. Which is again a very strong reason to make our sanctions permanent, beyond the end of the war.

If an elephant has its foot on the tail of a mouse and you say that you are neutral

The mouse will not appreciate your neutrality

(Desmond Tutu)

If your actions create a legacy that inspires others to dream more

Learn more, do more and become more, then you are an excellent leader

(Dolly Parton)

Recent news have been dominated by accusations, and significant verified evidence, of Russian war crimes in Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelenskyy has gone one step further and described Russian actions in Ukraine as genocide. He even picked a low-intensity fight with Emmanuel Macron about it, when Macron refused to use the same qualification. There is indeed a legitimate debate about whether or not the atrocious Russian war crimes meet the criteria for genocide as defined in the United Nations' Genocide Convention of 1951. The oddest part here is that the main argument against acknowledging Russian war crimes in Ukraine as genocide comes from Russian pre-war propaganda itself, which claimed that Russians and Ukrainians are one and the same people, and one and the same nation, and of course you can't commit genocide on yourself. But this was two months ago, before the Ukrainian national spirit proved to be a powerful reality, and current evidence points to a dramatic shift towards what we call now 'ethnic cleansing', a term the United Nations did not use 70 years ago. Coupled with massive evidence of crimes of retribution, savage revenge on civilians for Russia's failure to achieve their war objectives. Wherever this debate may lead us, YouGov have polled their panel with a simple and direct question: do you think Vladimir Putin is a war criminal? The verdict is massive and unequivocal across all possible crosstabs. He is.

I honestly can't see which other answer could be expected after all that was discovered in Ukrainian towns evacuated by the Russian Army. Before you object, I'm not one-sided here, unlike many. Human Rights Watch has also found conclusive evidence that the Ukrainian Army committed war crimes, namely the summary execution of Russian prisoners of war. There is clearly no justification or excuse for this, whatever the context. The difference is that Ukraine did not go into full denial. An independent investigation in underway, conducted by the Ukrainian equivalent of the Director of Public Prosecutions, and a spokesperson for Volodymyr Zelenskyy has made it clear that any Ukrainian involved will be brought to justice. Which brings me to the second question asked by YouGov: do you think Vladimir Putin will be brought to justice at the International Criminal Court? The verdict here is massively that he will not, again pretty much across all demographics and politics. The main problem here is that neither the United States nor Russia recognise the authority of the ICC and, oddly, Ukraine doesn't either as they have signed the treaty establishing the ICC, but never ratified it. And, even if all three had ratified the treaty, it wouldn't mean that it would actually work. Other powerful countries, like China, Turkey and India are not part of it and never will, so could be some sort of refuge for Russian war criminals, just like South America was for Nazis in the 1950s. So there is, sadly, every reason to share the British public's scepticism here.

Then what might be Putin's ultimate fate now? There is already some speculation about that, and I have come up with four scenarios. The most radical would be a 'Gaddafi scenario', but I don't see it as plausible. It would require both a massive popular revolt and a complete disintegration of the state apparatus, neither of which I see happening in Russia in the foreseeable future. Then you have a variant of this as the 'Nicholas II scenario'. First removal from power in the aftermath of a military defeat, with physical elimination some time later. I would not put this one past some in Putin's Ninth Circle. But the major argument against it is that it would also require purges within the political and military establishment all across Russia. Probably nobody in the current Russian leadership is enough of a gambler to take that risk, for fear of failing. Then you have an 'Edward VIII scenario', soft removal from power followed by a lavish taxpayer-funded exile. A risky one as Putin would still face being extradited by his country of residence and sent to the International Criminal Court. Of course, there's always China. But they might find it expedient to use Putin as a bargaining chip in some 'normalisation' with the West further down the road, you never know. Finally there is still a 'Gorbachev scenario'. Not-so-soft removal from power, and finishing his life discredited and mostly forgotten. Which one, or any other one, is the most plausible, is just a matter of speculation. And your guess is as good as mine, as usual.

Never be cruel, never be cowardly and never, ever eat pears!

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Twice Upon A Time, 2017)

Always try to be nice, but never fail to be kind, and you mustn’t tell anyone your name

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Twice Upon A Time, 2017)

Back in England's green and pleasant land, the current rolling average of general election polls has again taken quite a turn to the left. Can you imagine that it's been 132 days since the last poll that showed the Conservatives leading? And that an interrupted string of 112 polls have shown Labour leading? So you have to wonder why it has all been just ebbs and flows, and never a conclusive swing to a massive, sustained and unquestionable Labour domination. Labour's lead has only rarely and exceptionally cleared the 10% hurdle, which is what they need to bag an outright majority. The average of these 112 polls is 39.6% for Labour and 33.3% for the Conservatives, of course much better for Keir Starmer than he could imagine just a year ago, but still just a wee 6.3% lead. My current Poll'O'Polls is better than that for Labour, and falls squarely at the upper edge of the twilight zone where the most likely outcome is a hung Parliament. It's based on the weighted average of the last three polls, conducted by YouGov, Deltapoll and Redfield & Wilton between 13 and 17 April. Super-sample is 5,510, with a theoretical margin of error of 1.3%.

Notwithstanding all the uncertainty in voting intentions, the Conservatives look less likely than ever to regain a position where they can even the score with Labour. They now have quite an existential problem, as they thought for a long time that Big Dog was their Best In Show to win a general election. But odds are now that he will be forced to step aside long before that, and their most obvious choice as a successor has successfully charcoaled himself out of consideration. With the party in such disarray, it's quite flabbergasting that a third of the electorate freely admit that the Conservatives still turn them on. The local elections in England and Wales will undoubtedly shed some light on this. The political parties are sending massively contradictory messages about these, which is what parties usually do when they feel the elections could go in several different directions at once. 146 councils in England and 22 in Wales are at stake, and each is pretty much its own microcosm. Unless enough voters choose to turn these into a referendum on Boris, the looming fuel poverty, and the Conservatives' disregard for the environment and lack of a plan to switch to a genuine green agenda. Scottish council elections are again a different sort of beast, and we'll come to that later.

Madness is an unword, it does not exist

There are only varying degrees of sanity

Yours and mine just happen to be more varied than most

(Eleanor Bunsall, Midsomer Murders: Beyond The Grave, 2000)

We are all part of an endless saga

We fade, yes, but only to reappear in ever brighter colours

(Eleanor Bunsall, Midsomer Murders: Beyond The Grave, 2000)

Another indicator of how much you can trust peoples' voting intentions is how they feel about the near past and recent future, or the other way round, or whatever. And Savanta Comres tested just that in two other questions of their Tracker. With a wee smitch more info in another poll from Kantar a few days later. Savanta Comres used the familiar five-step scale, and Kantar only three levels, so their side is less diversely coloured. In both cases, the question was whether the panelists had found things getting better or getting worse over the last 12 months. And it's quite a mixed bag for the lot in charge. More people think that things have deteriorated than think they have improved, and even the two questions about the panel's health are a zero-sum game. Once again, we see that the public is deeply concerned about the economy and the cost of living. Though not mentioned in either poll, the fallout of the catastrophic handling of PartyGate also spells doom and gloom for the Conservatives. We have just two weeks to wait now and we'll see how all this influences the local elections in England, especially in some Red Wall councils where Labour expect to recoup earlier losses. Obviously not a reliable predictor of a future general election, but quite an adequate assessment of the public's mood, and that's always a factor in any election.

Savanta Comres also surveyed their panel's level of optimism about what they expect from 2022, or what's left of it. Again, the assessment of the economy is quite dark, or just realistic. This is what happens when serious economists start predicting that the UK's economy next year will be in no really better shape than Russia's. The latter because of sanctions. The former because of self-inflicted sanctions like the imaginary Brexit benefits. There is also clearly no real enthusiasm, and healthy levels of doubt, about any of the other issues. The most alarming, for a government who would actually pay attention, is that the public have a strikingly similar bleak view of how the NHS has evolved over the last year, and where it will likely go over the next. There is also little to justify optimism about your personal situation, when energy bills are predicted to skyrocket out of control for at least another year, and the rishiest (sorry for the miserable pun, couldn't resist) Chancellor since Dog domesticated Man can't be arsed to do anything serious about it. The collective mood is just buoyed by the prospect of at last going on holidays abroad, now that Covid has been told it no longer exists. Then you find out the most affordable country is Albania, where they think a pie is some sort of lasagna, and Lyme Regis returns as a viable alternative.

It's quite an intriguing situation when people agree that the last year hasn't been so good and the next one doesn't look conclusively better, yet are reluctant to go all the way and offer a massive mandate to the opposition to sort out all the shit. The Bozo variant of Conservatives have been burning bridges with whole swathes of the electorate for a long time, including among the least gullible and least ideology-driven of their own voters, those of the old-fashioned One Nation persuasion. Quite predictably, the English Government is again relying on the dirtiest trick in the book: scapegoating the most marginalised and vulnerable people. Not Owen Jones' crossdressing buddies, of course, but again refugees and asylum seekers. First they sign up for the vilest immigration policy since 1945, which is world-beating only in the level of disgust felt by millions of Brits. And they go full DARVO, not unlike the gender woo woo maniacs, when the evil scheme triggers legitimate criticism, promise of opposition in the House of Lords, and even the plausibility of a revolt within the Civil Service. Priti Patel has also failed to notice that more Brits oppose this awful policy than support it, including one in five Conservative voters, and chose the most inadequate moment to introduce it, when even a former Conservative Minister raised concerns about the already obscene mistreatment of Ukrainian refugees. Now we can only hope the Rwanda deal is solidly challenged in courts, and fails.

I need oil, water, tree bark, a saucepan, nine containers

An old newspaper, a touch of ox spit, a chicken poo and a biscuit

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Demons Of The Punjab, 2018)

Do you know what it means when something chases you really slowly?

It means there’s a reason that they don’t have to run

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Smile, 2017)

As you might expect from the snapshot of voting intentions, my seat projection has swung quite significantly towards Labour. Now they comfortably clear the first symbolic hurdle, the 300 seats needed to credibly assemble a governing coalition with smaller parties. And they just scrape past the second hurdle on Sly Keir's route to the Big Dog slot, the 316 seats that match Tony Blair's performance in 2005, just without the Scottish seats. Though that part of the story hasn't quite turned out this way, as we shall see in a wee while. Now the core coalition with the Liberal Democrats, the SDLP and the Alliance Party is predicted to bag 338 seats, more than David Cameron got in 2015. And the extended coalition including the Greens and Plaid Cymru would get 345 seats, or a 47-seat working majority, more than is needed for a safe complete term afterwards.

The added bonus for Labour is that the result would not be jeopardised if the election was fought on the new boundaries proposed by the 2023 Periodic Review. Labour would need the full coalition to bag a working majority and it would fall to just five seats. But it would still be better than Theresa May in 2017, and public opinion would surely be ready to forget the closeness of the result and remember just the massive losses for the Conservatives. A net loss of 122 under current boundaries, or 'only' 100 on the new boundaries, doesn't make much difference for the narrative.

If the next election was fought under the gerrymandered boundaries, the differences with the current boundaries would remain in the range predicted by the notional results of the 2019 election. Labour would lose 14 potential seats, and the Conservatives gain 22. Here we are at the lower edge of the spread of voting intentions that would make the fallout of the gerrymandering immaterial and irrelevant. The outcome also depends on the exact date the election is held. The Conservatives have no incentive to gamble it before the boundary changes are enforced, and also none to wait until the last possible date in January 2025. My best educated guess is still June or September 2024, after the public have digested the wee cut in the lower band of income tax. And I still don't think a change of Prime Minister would trigger an earlier election, unless polls swing back to a solid Conservative lead later this year or early in the next. Which is definitely not my most plausible scenario right now.

In chess, the properties and powers of a bishop are fixed

In poker, it’s all wobbled through the prism of personality

(Martin Amis)

Kooky is how you describe people who think a hat is the same as a personality

(Jon Richardson, Meet The Richardsons, 2021)

The Conservatives now face the real prospect of a risky by-election in Wakefield, after Imran Ahmad Khan has resigned, without waiting for mandatory expulsion from Commons, or a successful recall petition. Wakefield is one of those Red Wall seats that turned blue by surprise in 2019. Prior to that, it had elected Labour MPs continuously since a 1932 by-election. There is no doubt in my mind that another by-election in a few weeks will return it to Labour. Another Conservative MP is also clearly in the danger zone: David Warburton in Somerset and Frome, who is so far saved only by delaying tactics. Somerset and Frome is a former Liberal Democrat seat, and the odds of them gaining it back are pretty much just as good as earlier in Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire. That is jack shit until the actual by-election happens and then all hell breaks loose, and it's a farewell to arms for another Tory in a supposedly safe seat. And another lousy night for Boris Johnson, seeing his majority wither away one by one as John Major's did. Current voting intentions across England hint at something like a 6 on the Richter Scale, not yet the massive tectonic shifts that would bring back a 1997-like tsunami.

Of course, the only thing that matters, at the end of the day, is how many seats these votes can possibly spawn. As usual, we see here not just the mathematical outcome of today's voting intentions, that would be too easy and far less fun, but also the ripples of past voting patterns dating back to the beginning of the current Conservative Era. There is lots of evidence that the more recent strata from the Johnsonian could be wiped clean more easily than earlier ones from the Cameronian. This is especially the case in the Midlands, where Labour face quite an uphill battle to reclaim past strongholds, and many seats look pretty much out of reach now. Unlike the North, where Labour would wipe out the bad memories of 2017 and 2019, cruising back to a better result than in 2005. Or the South, where they would just match their 2005 result, even if the earlier boundary changes enforced in 2010, have made it a wee smitch harder to make inroads into Tory territory down there.

On this projection, four prominent members of Boris Johnson's Cabinet would bite the dust. George Eustice, Alok Sharma and Grant Shapps defeated by Labour. Dominic Raab by the Liberal Democrats. Enough for bigger shocks that the Portillo Moment or the Balls Moment at earlier elections. Some Lesser Dogs a notch down on the Government's food chain would also go: Alex Chalk, Michael Ellis, Chloe Smith, Conor Burns, Andrew Stephenson, Stuart Andrew, Robin Walker, Will Quince, Iain Stewart and Tom Pursglove among others. And finally some high up in the hierarchy of the Conservative Parliamentary Party in Commons: Graham Brady, Tobias Elwood, Amanda Solloway, William Wragg and perennial Chief Loony Steve Baker. All those plus 78 non-descript backbenchers, most from the 2019 intake who had little time to leave their mark on anything but the tables at the Strangers' Bar.

I loathe the idea of trendy London wankers coming to Blackpool for an ironic holiday

(Jon Richardson, Meet The Richardsons, 2021)

It’s always the same, we’re full of things we want

And none of them can happen for perfectly good, practical reasons

(Wyn Ryan, Silent Witness: Blood, Sweat And Tears, 1997)

An interesting development over the last few months, confirmed by poll after poll, is that La Reconquista De La Escocia has become a credible part of Keir Starmer's Road To Number Ten. First there were signs that some disgruntled SNP voters might be tempted to switch back to Labour. More recently, it has morphed into a zero-sum game within each camp, with the Greens snatching some votes from the SNP on one side, and Labour snatching a lot from Conservatives and Liberal Democrats on the other. I'll leave it at that for now, and will disclose all the gory details a wee smitch further down. Though just the sight of current voting intentions and projected seats is definitely quite a spoiler.

There are also interesting things happening in Wales from one poll to the next, which might be just random variations on wee subsamples. Or you might conclude that a fair share of left-wing voters there actually swing back and forth between Labour and Plaid Cymru. Which does not really help Plaid Cymru, as they seem unable to break their now usual Slate Ceiling of five seats. But it can hurt Labour, making competitive Lab-Con duels quite touch and go. Labour are also still doing really well in London, and it would be some kind of upset if they didn't. Then I have a hunch Labour have upset some in the metropolitan hipster-class electorate when they sided with the government to promote the extinction of rebellion, as if it was some sort of street war that had to be quashed. There are probably more lefties left in London that in any other Labour heartland, or Owen Jones followers who self-identify as The Left, so talking points that might appeal to centrists in the Outer Commuter Belt might also fall flat in many parts of the Imperial Capital.

Of course, the two devolved nations and London are definitely not bellwethers, or in any way representative of the whole UK. They could provide the tipping-point seats, but the bulk of the gains have to be made elsewhere, if Labour really want to be the next English Government. Nevertheless, the current seat projections point to more than just a handful of tipping-point gains, but something more significant. There's a potential wealth of 21 gains for Labour in those three areas combined: eight in Scotland, ten in Wales, three in London. There would be massive irony encapsulated in this, if the actual tipping-point seat on Election Night was somewhere North of the Gretna Green Services, something I'm not ready to rule out just yet.

Don't ever give anybody your best advice, because they're not going to follow it

(Jack Nicholson)

I live in a country full of people who can’t wait for a cup of tea

It’s the most depressed I get about humanity

When I hear someone say “Oh, I could murder a cup of tea”

I think “Oh, fucking just die”

(Jon Richardson, Meet The Richardsons, 2022)

We have had some more Full Scottish polls since my last update. This time by Survation on behalf of Ballot Box Scotland, conducted between 24 and 28 March, but made public only on 5 April. It looked pretty pointless at first, as the headline results about IndyRef2 and the next Scottish Parliament election delivered pretty much the same results as Savanta Comres' Scottish Tracker, conducted just two weeks earlier. But this one also included voting intentions for the next general election and the incoming Council elections, which Savanta Comres did not poll. Let's start with the Council elections, despite my sincerely held belief that such polling is irrelevant, as it fails to capture voting intentions for independent candidates, who are a real force in many councils. Notwithstanding, it's still fun to compare what polls predicted before the 2017 Council elections and what they say now. Just to prove how shit they are and that you shouldn't pay too much attention to them. But, if you do, bear in mind they don't really say what the SNP and Щотландская Правда, oops... sorry... The National, want you to believe they say. Or don't say, or might say but might not, depending on which paragraph of the article you read first.

I don't know if you remember the Council elections of 2017 and what I wrote about them at the time, based on these fantasy polls. To cut a long story short, if the polls had been accurate, the SNP would have bagged more Councillors than they fielded candidates. Which would have been quite an interesting situation. Then, after the elections and to hide a very mediocre result, the SNP picked a fight with BBC Scotland News about actual seats before changes in ward boundaries, and notional seats after these changes. Because one showed a wee net gain while the other showed a wee net loss, in both cases just a handful of seats. They also conveniently failed to acknowledge that the BBC always make comparisons based on notional seats after boundary changes, whatever the election and the result. That's how ridiculous it had become, and how defensive the SNP already were when faced with the reality of voters not really buying their campaign PR. Guess the next Election Night will be fun to watch too. Especially when we have seen the SNP campaigning on issues that are definitely not within the remit of any Council, but of the House of Commons, and reserved matters too. Maybe that's why Survation also polled Westminster voting intentions, and BMG Research did too a few days later. I've selected the BMG poll for further examination, genuinely because it's the most recent one, and not disingenuously because it's worse for the SNP, Would never do that, would I? Scot's Honour.

Interestingly this one predicts no leaks from the SNP to Labour, but mostly strong shifts within the unionist camp. First obvious thing is that the SNP have seen better days, and the Scottish subsamples of GB-wide polls have said that already for quite a while. This also fits with what we have in recent Holyrood polls, with the SNP either level with 2021 or slightly down on the constituency vote, and Labour steadily progressing. Here we have the SNP predicted to lose eight seats to Labour: Airdrie and Shotts, Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, East Lothian, Glasgow North East, Inverclyde, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Motherwell and Wishaw. Rutherglen and Hamilton West. But also East Renfrewshire to the Conservatives. The SNP would almost make up for that thanks to both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats losing ground in most regions, and would gain five seats from the Conservatives (Banff and Buchan, Dumfries and Galloway, Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale, Moray, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine) and three (Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, Edinburgh West, North East Fife) from the LibDems. Another four seats would be on a knife-edge and within reach of Labour (Glasgow East, Glasgow South West, Midlothian, West Dunbartonshire). This looks like Scottish voters calling Keir Starmer's bluff. 'You say you need Scottish seats to kick the Tories out, so here are some for you, and now what?'. So this could easily turn into a significant setback for the SNP, even if not of the same magnitude as the 2017 shambles. Don't say you haven't been warned.

There are some things that I’ve never seen

But that’s usually because I have chosen not to see them

Even my incredibly long life is too short for Les Misérables

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: In The Forest Of The Night, 2014)

Enjoying your bacon sandwich? It had a mummy and a daddy

Go tell a pig about your moral high ground

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: World Enough And Time, 2017)

As always, the best part of the BMG poll is what it says about the next Scottish Parliament election, and this part too is not a pretty sight for the SNP. They're losing ground quite significantly on both votes, with the Greens only compensating part of it on the list vote. Switches within the unionist camp are also on a smaller scale than in the Westminster part of the same poll. There are also some disturbing trends in the regional crosstabs here, the most obvious being a 10% swing from the SNP to Labour in Glasgow, something quite unusual in recent polls. Because of that, the SNP would lose three Glasgow seats to Labour: Anniesland, Kelvin and Pollok, Humza Yousaf's seat. All three by a bat's whisper, and the last two only because of the presence of Green candidates. Will be interesting to see if the SNP now demand that Patrick McCarthy... oops, sorry... Harvie gives up on his vanity candidacy in Kelvin and orders his team-mate in Pollok to stand down. The magic workings of AMS mean that the SNP would compensate that with two list seats in the Glasgow region, their only two under these voting intentions. Quite remarkably, the regional crosstabs of the list vote say that Reform UK would win their first 'real' seat, not a defection from the Tories, in Mid Scotland and Fife. The Alba Party would also win one in the North East, who could be Alex Salmond, or not.

Now, the long and tall of it is that the pro-independence parties don't have a majority of the popular vote. Not in Holyrood polls. Not in Westminster polls either. Not in the IndyRef part of the BMG poll either, which goes 43% Yes to 49.4% No, or 47-53 if you prefer round numbers without undecideds. Of course this again weakens the case, if the SNP and Greens ever genuinely wanted to make it, for a referendum next year. But obviously nobody in Scotland is closer to believing we will have a referendum during the current Holyrood term, than they were six months ago. If the Scottish Parliament pass a Referendum Act, the English Government will challenge it in court and we will lose. Because the proceedings will drag on long enough for Commons to legislate and make a referendum bill explicitly off-limits for Holyrood. Been there, done that, haven't we? There was a time and a place to make that very case with better odds: when Martin Keatings took his People's Action against Section 30 to the Court of Session. But the Scottish Government chose to sabotage it because it did not come from their think tanks and they would have been compelled to act if it had succeeded. So now the opportunity's gone and the trend of polls is not on our side.

On a related issue, a recent poll from YouGov proved that the wording of the question matters. Using the biased wording 'Should Scotland remain inside the UK or leave?', instead of the classic 2014 wording 'Should Scotland be an independent country?', results in a 6% swing from Yes to No. The irony is that the poll was commissioned by These Islands, a unionist think-tank who believe Kevin Hague is a actually an economist. Which is quite a lesser sin than the metropolitan hipsters who believe James Acaster is a comedian, and that painting zebra crossings pink-and-blue is a progressive idea. Of course, you can smell a rat here and an ulterior motive: convince the English Government that they have a vested interest in imposing the outrageously biased wording if they ever 'allow' another independence referendum some day before the Sun turns supernova. Which they could probably get away with, if they succeed with their plan to neuter the Electoral Commission into irrelevance. But the issue itself is probably irrelevant too as the prospects of a referendum are getting more and more distant.

I like double entendre because the people who get it enjoy it

And the people who don't get it don't know about it

(Betty White)

The girls is all salty, the boys is all sweet, the food ain't too shabby and they piss in the street

Down in France, way down in France

(Frank Zappa, In France, 1984)

Emmanuel Macron is a lucky man indeed. And if he doesn't believe in Father Christmas, he should consider it now. 27 months ago, after the massive and popular Yellow Vests protests and strong opposition to his botched and ill-prepared reform of state pensions, he was deep down in approval polls and his re-election appeared seriously in jeopardy. And now he has topped the first round of the presidential election, doing better than polls predicted, better than his own result in 2017, better than Nicolas Sarkozy in 2012, the last incumbent President who sought a second term. But a nearly 5% lead for Emmanuel Macron does not mean that victory at the second round is a shoe-in. The key here is how the other candidates' votes will transfer to either Macron and Le Pen. The only way Macron can safely win would be a revival of the proverbial Republican Front (sorry, there's no English Wiki for that one) against Le Pen. But polls surveying plausible transfers from the eliminated candidates definitely don't support this, but first and foremost a very high level of abstention. And also a high probability that 20 to 25% of radical left voters would choose Le Pen, as a 'lesser evil' compared to Macron's social liberalism. Some of Jean-Luc Mélenchon's supporters are clearly dismayed that he has come so far, only to fall at the last hurdle, 1% away from a second round slot, and are planning for a 'third round' to deprive Macron of a parliamentary majority after the incoming legislative election in June. The second round polls conducted just after the first round showed a high level of uncertainty, a thin line between success and failure for both candidates, but the gap has since widened way above the margin of error, so what promised to be a nail-biting campaign a week ago has become much safer for Macron with just five days left.

The breakdown of first round votes in 2017 was 27.8% for the various left-wing candidates, 48.2% for right-wing candidates, and 24% for Manny in the middle. This year we have 32% for the left, 40.2% for the right and 27.8% for Emmanuel Macron. Emmanuel Macron led Marine Le Pen by 2.7% in 2017, and 4.7% this year, which doesn't look like a really massive change. This election has nevertheless seen some more tectonic movement of the political fault lines, pretty much the end sequence of the realignment started in 2017. The main and most noticeable change is that far-right candidates got 26% in 2017, but 32.3% this year. This year has also seen what might be the final demise of the Socialist Party, beaten in the popular vote by the Greens and even a slightly resurgent Communist Party. The once dominant right-wing party Les Républicains is also in ruins, coming fifth after they bled voters from all sides, to Macron, Le Pen and Zemmour. The breakdown of votes at first rounds of the presidential elections over the last 50 years shows how the French political spectrum has evolved. My 'classic right' is pretty similar to our Conservative Party, though the French variant was always split between several parties. My 'classic left' includes the social-democrats and Greens, as the French variant are pretty much social-democrats with a coat of green paint. The other three categories are pretty much self-explanatory.

There are several interesting trends here. First, France always had a strong radical left vote, embodied earlier by the Communist Party, who did not field a candidate in 1974, hence the low radical left vote share then. Now the dominant party in that quarter of the compass is Jean-Luc Mélenchon's La France Insoumise, clearly a radical left party in the 21st century meaning. French modern centrism also predates Emmanuel Macron. It was first represented by the MoDem, a breakaway party from the then dominant right-wing party UMP, and now part of Macron's parliamentary majority since 2017. The evolution of the votes shows quite clearly that Macron first ate, digested and spat out half of the classic left, mostly the social-democratic Parti Socialiste, before his electorate shifted to the right when he also absorbed a third of the rump classic right. In the meanwhile, Le Pen's National Rally also snatched a third of these remains, which signals the real and final end of the Old World, as Macron dubbed it in 2017. Now the tectonic plates of French politics have probably settled down again around three poles: radical left, social-liberal centre, nationalist populist right. With this new Very French Paradox: the radical left holds the keys and will decide which of the other two prevails and rules the country for the next five years.

They got diseases like you never seen, got a mystery blow job turn your peter green

Down in France, way down in France

(Frank Zappa, In France, 1984)

In Memoriam

Keith Noel Emerson (2 November 1944 - 11 March 2016)

Gregory Stuart Lake (10 November 1947 - 7 December 2016)

Colin Trevor "Cozy" Powell (29 December 1947 - 5 April 1998)

Left to right: Keith Emerson, Greg Lake, Carl Palmer

Jeremy's Den

19/04/2022

Welcome Back My Friends To The Shitshow That Never Ends

We Must Be Dreaming