There is no terror in a bang, only in the anticipation of it
(Alfred Hitchcock)
© Gary Brooker, Matthew Fisher, Keith Reid, 1967
It's like driving at night in the fog, you can only see as far
as your headlights, but you can make the whole trip that way
(Edgar Lawrence Doctorow)
I have often wondered, if I was English, would I vote for Labour? And I'm not really sure about it. After all, they are the party of David Lammy and Nadia Whittome. If anyone had said that Black people have been 'hoarding rights', there would have been massive, and justified, outrage. Yet David could say the same disgusting thing about women and get away with it. And Wee Nadia, a typical Zoomer, ventured that people had to be 'educated or expelled' from Labour. Which is the same frame of mind as the Red Guards, the Khmer Rouge or, let's not be coy about it, the Hitlerjugend. That one is a Blairite and the other a Corbynite says a lot about what plagues Labour from one corner of the spectrum to the other. Which is ditching Marxist and truly socialist thinking in favour of intersectional thinking, and failing to see that intersectionalism is not just the polar opposite, but the complete negation, of socialism. When socialism is about uniting people towards a common goal, as in 'Proletarier aller Länder, vereinigt Euch!', intersectionalism is all about dividing and opposing, where people play a toxic game of 'who is the most oppressed?' against 'who is the least privileged?', each and every one of them lost and alone in their little box. Tis this time of year when I sadly have to agree with Tory ectoplasm Oliver Dowden that this ideology is 'obsessed by what divides us rather than what unites us', the erasure of Jo Cox's legacy by her own party.
Whichever angle I look at it from, intersectional thinking is a major regression of human intelligence. One of the major steps in the progress of humanity was the ability to define and use abstract concepts, while intersectionalism is only about attaching pre-formatted labels to people, without unifying abstract concepts above them. Abstraction requires the ability to understand and use complex reasoning with all the shades of black and white woven into the fabric of reality. Intersectionalism shifts your brain to a simplistic approach based on pre-defined boxes and the same divisive 'us and them' approach as the right, combined with the absurd and deluded tenet that feelings and perception trump facts and hard evidence. The core of intersectionalism is the hive mind and the lack of forward thinking, combined with total historical and political illiteracy, that led Whoopi Goldberg to say that the Holocaust was not about race, because it happened between two groups of white people. That's why the right love intersectionalism, despite their claims to the contrary, because it divides the left and makes them look like fucking morons, making intersectionalists another variant of the useful idiots of conservatism. Because the major, and most damaging, 'culture war' is not where you think it is, it is actually within the left.
The key to progressive politics has always been unifying concepts that serve as umbrellas for the diverse concerns and interests of different groups within society, that may seem conflicting at first glance, but are not when you consider the bigger picture. That's how universalism, liberalism and socialism were born, the steps in the development of progressive political philosophy across the ages. Intersectionalism wants to erase four centuries of intellectual progress, and is a death threat for the social-democrats, because it erases the class politics that are at the core of socialism. It also negates the notion of solidarity between diverse communities from the Isle of Dogs to Durham, also a cornerstone of socialism and the trade union movement, as it is as deeply individualistic as right-wing libertarianism. As long as intersectionalism is the centre of gravity of debates on the left, the right will play the 'common sense' card against 'extreme wokeism', and prevail. But true social-democrats fighting an election on genuine social-democratic values can win in a landslide, despite the poisonous growth of the far-right, as the Portuguese Socialist Party proved last month, and there is a lot Labour could learn from it. Labour's socialist manifesto of 1983 might have been the longest suicide note in history, in the context of the day, but New New Labour's for the next election could well be both the most long-winded and the most predictable. But let's not be too philosophical for now, and turn to the practical side of politics: what do the fucking polls tell us this week?
The more society drifts from the truth, the more they will hate those who speak it
(George Orwell)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 1975
Don’t you see that the whole aim of Newspeak is to narrow the range of thought?
In the end we shall make thoughtcrime literally impossible
Because there will be no words in which to express it
(George Orwell)
At the end of January, YouGov have updated their Favourability Tracker, which is actually more of an Unfavourability Tracker, and for some a WhoTheFuckIsThat Tracker. They have extended the cast, compared to earlier versions, as they definitely have to poll some of the Conservative PM wannabes. So we have the usual suspects (Conservative Party, Labour Party, Johnson, Starmer, Patel, Sunak, Truss, Gove, Javid, Raab) plus five new entrants (Jeremy Hunt, Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat, David Davis and Douglas Ross). Some of the newbies may want to have their name removed when they see the results. The top rungs of the list are held by the main English parties, and those YouGov obviously considers the Top Dogs in this race. First expected result is that Priti Patel once again holds her title as the Most Hated Woman In SW1, though Liz Truss also has unexpectedly low positives and is saved by the high proportion of people who have no opinion of her. Which, when you think of it, is quite a liability for someone who aspires to become the next Big Canine within the year. And I had to resort to the gender-neutral term here because the female term would have been construed as abhorrently offensive and trussphobic, and the Scottish-themed replacement Big Willow just didn't cut it. Darth Patel also has the biggest net negative on -50, though Boris Johnson has more negatives, but he also has many more people who love him. Well, many-ish.
Unsurprisingly, Labour and Keir Starmer are more popular than the Conservative Party and Boris Johnson. Again Rishi Sunak is Big Dog In Waiting here, and again the only one getting higher positives than Conservative voting intentions in YouGov's poll released around the same time. Which makes it even more embarrassing for Labour and Keir Starmer, that they have lower positives than their own voting intentions. Wunderkind might actually gain some more points if he listens to fellow MPs and does something to tackle the UK's massive 'fraud epidemic', which is of course all about corporate fraud and not benefits fraud. Something Tory MPs have known all along just like the rest of us, but were not allowed to say because it might have killed one of Boris's after-dinner soundbites. Or if he is sincere, and successful too, in containing the worst cost-of-living crisis since the Thatcher days. Rishi might even get some extra points from opposition voters for distancing himself from Boris Johnson in the Savile Row. Sorry, couldn't resist and I'm truly ashamed of that abhorrent joke. Or not, because that opportunity was really tailored for Rishi, wasn't it? The bottom part of YouGov's list includes mostly the new entrants, though Sajid Javid and Dominic Raab have been demoted some notches down and among them, for whatever reason.
Now we've reached the point where Penny 'Who? Mordor? Really?' and Tom 'Who? The Great Twat? Seriously?' reach for their phones and call YouGov, demanding to be removed from the next poll. Or call the BBC, Channel 4, Sky News; ITV and even GB News, and volunteer to make the rounds on breakfast TV twice a week. Because that's basically the only two options you have left when more than two thirds of the general population don't have the fuckiest scoobie who you are. For Oor Doogie Ross, I have included the results for both the GB-wide sample and the Scottish subsample. Because Doogie would gloat about having a net of 'only' -15 GB-wide, which is better than any of the Conservative really big names except Rishi Sunak. While a net -31 on his home turf is more realistic and drags him down below Liz Truss and Sajid Javid too. Now the real lesson from this episode of the beauty pageant is that nobody gets a clean bill of health from the public. Even the most popular, Rishi Sunak, still bags a net negative on -8. The Labour Party and Keir Starmer, though more popular than the Conservatives, bag double-digit negatives on -17 for both. Guess Fox Mulder was right after all, and the British public have adopted his catchphrase: Trust No One.
I’m quite happy with the vocabulary created before the year 2000
But I’ll see if I can pick up an urban dictionary on my way
(DCI John Barnaby, Midsomer Murders, 2021)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 2003
We’re fighting an algorithm, a spreadsheet
Like every worker everywhere, we’re fighting the suits
(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Oxygen, 2017)
YouGov did not test all these new faces, and then drop them at the next rotation, just out of the kindness of their heart. They certainly believe that every Dog will have his day at the Blue Kennel, or at least try, once Big Dog is out of the way. So they offered them a trial run of the public's choice of whom they would pick as the next Conservative leader and Prime Minister. Other than the cast proposed by YouGov, 28% of the full panel, and 26% of Conservative voters, said they don't know, or possibly know and won't tell. 17% of the panel and 11% of Conservative voters said they'd choose someone else, though they would probably be at a loss saying exactly whom. Or they would chose Priti Patel, who had her popularity tested in the first part of the poll, and then mysteriously vanished when people had to pick the best possible successor for Boris Johnson. Unsurprisingly, Rishi Sunak emerges as the Best In Show here, though this has all the ingredients of a self-fulfilling prophecy. After dozens of mentions of him as the most likely successor, and indeed the only one worthy of it, the public are certainly ready to endorse that view. But the real game hasn't yet begun, and YouGov's list is not even state-of-the-art. Michael Gove has already said he will not stand again, and others could very well be convinced not to, if they were facing the prospect of getting just their own vote in the first round. Like Oor Doogie Ross, who was probably tested just to show him what an irrelevance he is.
I'm quite sure we will witness some unlikely alliances once the contest starts. Which leads me to think that Sajid Javid has better chances than the poll says, as the alternate choice for those who want Boris out, but don't want Rishi or Liz in. I can even easily imagine Jeremy Hunt, who had his chance but fucked it up, sitting the next one out and supporting The Saj instead. With a return to one of the best seats in Cabinet attached. The Saj would certainly have a lot to say for himself, like being the only one who stood up to Dominic Cummings when Evil Dom was actually a Big Dog himself, while Rishi didn't and got the job as a reward for his subservience. And of course everyone is wondering what Iain Duncan Smith will do. Or Not. There's also one name missing in YouGov's cast: Ruth Davidson, who was once such a media darling. Of course it's been an established tradition for 60 years that you can't rule the Realm from the Lords, as it had been an established tradition before that you could not rule the Realm from anywhere but the Lords, but never mind. Oor Ruth's comeback to dirty-ass politics won't happen anytime soon, as it would require someone in a supposedly safe seat resigning from Commons, to allow her to stand at a by-election. The scenario absofucking nobody wants at Tory Central, feart as they are that any by-election would turn into another epic debacle like Chesham and Amersham or North Shropshire.
No one knows what happens next, that’s why it’s called the future
(Cully Barnaby, Midsomer Murders, 2005)
© Gary Brooker, Josh Phillips, Peter Brown, 2017
The great thing about Sainsbury’s, it keeps the scum out of Waitrose
(Stephen Fry)
I have a hunch Boris Johnson now wishes he had avoided ever mentioning Jimmy Savile in Commons, seeing how it now has massively backfired and backlashed, from resignations at Big Dog's Kennel to genuine embarrassment on the Tory backbenches. The mob assaulting Keir Starmer just outside Parliament certainly drove the point home, as Boris still refused to apologise for his Carr-sized blunder. A point, among others, that was painfully driven home by John Major's finely chiseled backstabbing. Which is actually more like backstabbing from the front, delivered with a style the progressive media can only love. But Major's influence within the Conservative Party is certainly limited at best, and public opinion definitely don't need him to express distrust in Boris Johnson in growing numbers, poll after poll. But a third of Brits are still on the fence when asked who would be their Preferred First Minister Of England, and the trend shows that Keir Starmer's rating has been progressing more slowly than Boris Johnson's was declining. Keir Starmer is also still facing the ambiguities of his politics, when he seems unable to choose between the various intersections within the political compass, that he has to cuddle to deliver a convincing election victory. This week's choice is the Atlanticist saber-rattling faction, with a renewed commitment to NATO, now sold as a major achievement of the British left. Tony Blair and Gordon Brown will certainly approve, but the ghosts of Michael Foot and Tony Benn might disagree here, especially with the aggressively patronising bit about the Stop The War coalition.
Keir Starmer nevertheless has an advantage here. Labour might be a part-time shitshow, but the Conservatives are a full-time one, and play the part more convincingly week after week. Of course the two funniest moments in that absolute shambles were Guto Harri claiming that Boris is not a complete clown. You're the fucking communication director, mate, and that's all you could come up with? Fucking tragic. Which nevertheless came second, on the mad laughter scale, to Boris claiming he has no doubt about Rishi Sunak's loyalty. Let's just hope Boris has also rehearsed his Shakespeare and honed his rendition of 'Et tu, Rishe!', as he might need it soon. So far Wunderkind Rishi has remained faithful to his commitment to being non-committal on everything, including the Treasury's business. Which made his "oh, I wouldn't have said that" comment on Boris's Savile jibe sound like the harshest dressing down he was capable of. But the undeniable fact is that he's doing a fucking lot better than Boris Johnson in the 'Preferred First Minister Of England' polling against Keir Starmer, even if Starmer bagged a teeny weeny lead in a few recent polls.
The only problem for Rishi now is that he has always careful avoided being in anyone's direct line of fire, and has actually never been really tested on his own merits only. Then you can also wonder what the true story is behind Jacob Rees-Mogg's promotion to Minister for Jack Shit and Fuck All... oops, sorry... Brexit Opportunities and Government Efficiency. Which could be allowing him fuckloads of free time he can use to gut Rishi's ambitions from the inside. The promotion of Mark Spencer to Leader of the House of Commons, and Chris Heaton-Harris as Chief Whip, are also clear signs of increased febrility at The Kennel, with key positions allotted to known Johnson cultists. Clearly there is a plan here to wrestle the Parliamentary Conservative Party into subservience, first and foremost by avoiding a leadership contest that could prove fatal for Big Dog. And probably end in victory for Wunderkind, now that his main prospective rival has made a disgrace of herself in Moscow, which was actually quite predictable as Cheesy Lizzie has never been the sharpest tool in the box. Being baited into giving the fucking stupidest answer, to what was in fact not even a trick question, can't make anyone look good, now matter how you try and spin it afterwards. Amusingly, this would leave Sajid Javid as the most serious contender against Rishi Sunak. Chancellor On Chancellor would be fun, wouldn't it?
Now we’re left holding a sprat when we should have landed a mackerel
(Ted Hastings, Line Of Duty, 2021)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 1974
Maybe there are some people out there who always tell the truth
And ones who always lie, the rest of us choose our moments
(Steve Arnott, Line Of Duty, 2014)
Earlier this month, YouGov also released a poll about Boris Johnson's resignation, one about the Metropolitan Police and one again about Bozo's resignation. Then what looked like a compilation of the three, but giving slightly different results and... surprise, surprise... a wee smitch better for Bozo and Cressida, though all were allegedly fielded at the same time. It's a bit like Ed Sheeran releasing singles, and then an album with remixes of the same songs on it, so fans will buy the same shit twice. Anyway, here's what the album version, oops... final version, of those three-polls-in-one says. And even with the overdubs, it's still pretty damning for Boris Johnson and the Met. The first question was pretty much a Yes-Or-No question, or the Clash Question: should he stay or should he go? Even in the slightly diluted version, an overwhelming majority say Boris should go, including a third of Conservative voters. It doesn't actually matter if the real number of Leave voters here is 62 or 63%, as other polls have said. What matters is that such polls create a climate in which Conservative MPs, who would be hard-pressed to name just one genuine Brexit benefit, can now feel the benefits of Borxit. It had even reached the absurd point where some can be baited into thinking that Dehenna Davison is the future of the Conservative Party. Aye, right, there definitely is a bright future ahead for Emma Peel impersonators, innit?
This was fielded before Commons went into recess, and there was a lot of media activity centered on PartyGate and CakeGate and BubblyGate and whatnot. Of course there was massive comical value in Nadine Dorries making the rounds to support Johnson, and doing more harm than good after a couple of pink gins. It says a lot about Boris Johnson's lack of true supporters, when he has to send one on the kamikaze run, who couldn't help a dug find a lamppost. Then I guess he did ask and they all told him to fuck off, because they were already booked for a day at the races or a night at the opera with Rishi Sunak. The natural follow-up question in the YouGov poll was how likely people think Bozo will actually resign because of the fallout of his various Gates. A convincing majority are ready for A Very British Reboot of Downfall, or at least of Trump's Last Stand. But, when the poll was fielded, the very plausible scenario that Bozo might be fined by the Met, over multiple violations of Covid rules, was not yet explicitly on the table. In the meanwhile, Cressida Dick's resignation, plus MPs overcoming their boredom by coming up with new scenarios during recess, have raised awareness of that option. Would it be enough to Get Borxit Done? Your guess is as good as mine here, probably depending on our level of confidence in the reliability of the oddly-named Operation Hillman.
Lastly, YouGov's panel were asked to what extent they trust the Metropolitan Police to conduct a full and meaningful investigation into the multiple PartyGates, or don't. And they overwhelmingly don't. Even worse for Bozo, not even Conservative voters do. Of course, this was before Cressida Dick's resignation and the 'fine option' being conspicuously on the table, but I doubt the public's dim view of the Met's performance has changed since. Another road is open now, a full investigation into FlatGate, as requested by Labour. This could prove more damaging for Bozo and Carrie-Antoinette, if serious charges are brought up. Part of the public might feel some tolerance for breaking Covid regulations, and be ready to fall for some excuses, but allegations of bribery would take the matter to a wholly different level. If such accusations were made and substantiated, this could very well be the final thrust needed to propel Bozo, Carrie and Dilyn out of Number Ten.
Lack of public confidence in the senior police force in England is obviously a major political problem, and would be for any government. Which has taken an unexpected turn now, with Sadiq Khan ruthlessly throwing Cressida Dick under the bikes, apparently without even bothering to inform Priti Patel beforehand, so the Home Office pretty much had to say they agreed, even if they actually did not. For some reason, politicians of all sheds thought for years that they had to protect Cressida's reputation as a spotless Dick. Sorry, couldn't resist... again. But now Dame Dick's time is over, as she has dug her own grave by refusing to acknowledge the urgent need for massive roots-to-branches reform of the Metropolitan Police. Her general attitude was also widely perceived by the public as protecting officers whose actions drifted way beyond the pale, and it also contributed to her demise. Now a massive majority think she was right to resign, even among Conservative voters. There's an added bonus for Labour in there: Sadiq Kahn has firmly established himself as the Big Dog in that game and it's hard to imagine that Priti Patel could now appoint a new Commissioner of the Met who wouldn't actually be the Mayor's choice. Since Kahn has no leadership ambition, at least for now, any point he scores against the Government goes directly into Labour's collective pot and benefits Starmer. Let's just hope the next Commissioner will make it their main task to clean the Cressidan Stables, while restoring public confidence with a full and uncompromising investigation into the various episodes of PartyGate.
No one wants to lie, but part of our duty is to uphold public trust
Sometimes that means having a non-exclusive relationship with the truth
(Gill Biggeloe, Line Of Duty, 2019)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 1974
This version from In Concert with the Danish National Concert Orchestra and Choir, 2006
There’s always a fact where you might want to put a joke
(Jon Richardson)
Right now we have an uninterrupted string of 60 GB-wide polls predicting Labour would win the popular vote at an hypothetical general election held next Thursday, with the average Labour lead in this hyper-sample of 139k respondents being 7.2%. Nevertheless, the trend of voting intentions show that the electorate are still volatile, even if they have deserted the Conservatives in droves. The Conservatives may not have registered a lead in any poll since 6 December, but the Labour lead this year has fluctuated wildly between 3% and 14%, so there is no telling where it will go next. This kind of lead means the number of Labour seats could be anywhere between 280ish and 340ish, or anywhere between seeking an impossible coalition and bagging a good enough majority. Exactly the kind of situation the bookies love and hate. Love it because most punters would clutter somewhere around the median on near even odds, so little, if any, dosh would be at risk. Hate it because just one winning bet on the implausible 5000/1 option could wipe them clean. Which is what the lucky punter would have bagged, who would have bet on a hung Parliament in 2017. But the sad truth is that Brits are more likely to fall in love with a boisterous plonker who reminds them of Benny Hill, than with a boring forensic lawyer. So Sly Keir definitely has to up his game and become more exciting or, if I may dare it, sexier. That's the only way these trends will stop looking like a rollercoaster and more like a losing slide for the Conservatives.
Labour might also still be hampered by the neverending story of anti-Semitism in the party, which in many ways has reached the outer limits of absurd. Keir Starmer has the power to make it stop, simply by ordering all internal disciplinary action to be dropped, and that would definitely be the wisest choice if he wants Labour to move on and away from divisive feuds, and focus on the prize instead. That wee prize of kicking Johnson out of Number Ten. I have this lingering suspicion that, deep down, Starmer might be trying to rebrand himself as England's Macron, the same way Nicola Sturgeon is trying to rebrand herself as Scotland's. Which is a crass misinterpretation of what happened in France, as Macronism, in its first stages, grew out of the ruins of social-democracy. But social-democracy is far from dead in England or in Scotland, mostly because the local populist far-right is far less attractive for the working class than in France, and trying social liberalism as some sort of unavoidable 'modern' alternative is bound to fail. Keir should remember that Gordon Brown tried to revive Labour's traditions with a turn to the left away from Tony Blair's Third Way antics. That he did not have enough time to make it work does not prove he was wrong. Nicola should remember that the SNP became a full success story only after Alex Salmond and the 79 Group turned it into a genuine social-democratic party. But today's line is to deny the legacy even exist, rather than try and learn from it. Their mistakes, and time will tell how big they are.
From existence to existence he came to many and was as one received
Existence with existence he was with any as any with any
From existence to nonexistence gone he would by all as none perceived
(James Joyce, Ulysses)
© Mick Grabham, Keith Reid, 1977
We can't direct the wind, but we can adjust the sails
(Dolly Parton)
One of the upsides of current British politics is that the Conservatives have developed expertise at offering comic relief to their own tragic mismanagement of government. Liz Truss is only the tip of the iceberg, and Environment Secretary George Eustice is a worthy contributor too, with the rent for his constituency office going to Extinction Rebellion's legal fund. Can't make that shit up, can we? But, before we move on to my current Poll'O'Polls, I must mention that I was a bit puzzled by the latest Opinium poll, fielded between 9 and 11 February, because of their sudden change of methodology. They are totally right when they say that self-declared likelihood to vote is highly misleading, and I have already made that point about the over-representation of the Scottish subsamples in GB-wide polls. But I am still not totally convinced by the rest of their rather long-winded explanation, and how it supports their claim that a change in the classic turnout weighting can shrink a 10% lead for Labour to 3%. But it's their choice and they've been good at their job in the past, so I suppose I have to live with it. Today's snapshot includes the last three polls, conducted between 9 and 14 February. Super-sample is 5,754, with a theoretical margin of error of 1.29%.
So what we have here today is a 3.7% lead for Labour, down 3.1% on two weeks ago. And I can't blame Opinium's change of methodology for that, as YouGov and Redfield and Wilton also found a significant drop in Labour's lead over the last two weeks. Which doesn't mean that the public are forgiving the Conservatives for all their much-publicised mischief, but doesn't either support David Michell's point of view that people are actually forgetful, and might be even more so as time goes by. It also doesn't fit with some sort of 'patriotic' knee-jerk reaction to the English Government's pitiful attempts to revive a Russian War Scare. In fact, Conservative voting intentions have barely changed, but Reform UK's have gone up by roughly the same amount Labour's have gone down. I'm not saying there was a direct transfer here, as the underlying currents are obviously more complex that this. But a surge in working class Euroscepticism can't be good news for Labour if it hampers their Reconquista of the North. Voting intentions have also undergone significant changes in Scotland and Wales, with the SNP going noticeably down and Plaid Cymru up by unprecedented amounts. Not sure either will last, as smaller subsamples are prone to random variations, but it will certainly be interesting to keep a close eye on the devolved nations in the run-up to local elections.
I have to pretend that I like arthouse cinema, but really what I like is farting cartoon dogs
(Jon Richardson)
© Gary Brooker, Matthew Fisher, Keith Reid, 1968
It would speed up all the interviews, wouldn’t it?
If all the interviewees were on wheelie chairs and the studio was on a ramp
And you’d just have to catch them as they go past
(Jon Richardson)
The Poll'O'Polls gives the big picture of what's happening with the electorate, but can be somewhat misleading. A similar level of voting intentions might actually deliver different seat projections, depending of what happens in different areas of Britain. The distribution of votes between the nations and regions does make a difference here. 200k votes going one way or the other all across England will shift only a couple of seats, and possibly even none, but 200k votes changing sides in Scotland will have a massive impact, as the SNP learned the hard way in 2017. As usual, my assessment of the distribution of votes is not just in comparison to 2019, but also to the 2017 Corbyn Surge and Blair's Last Stand in 2005. The latter being of course the benchmark for a convincing Labour performance at the next election. So let's have a look first at what happens in the devolved Nations and the Imperial Capital, which are quite often the outliers and prone to counter-intuitive variations away from the general trends.
As I mentioned earlier, recent polls have taken an interesting and unforeseen turn in Scotland and Wales. I don't know if either is plausible in the long run, or after a real full-blown election campaign, but it's still quite a snapshot. I'm honestly more ready to believe in a mediocre performance from the SNP than in an exceptionally good one from Plaid Cymru, but you never know. Labour's sub-par result in London is also quite unexpected, especially as they seem to be leaking from both ends to the Greens and the Liberal Democrats. The former is actually not that surprising, as the residual rainbow-socked quinoa-crunching hipsters, those who haven't fled to the Inner Commuter Belt because of the First Great Lockdown, certainly harbour only kind feelings for the Stonewallist Greens. But a revival of the London LibDems was definitely not on anyone's bingo card, unless it's fuelled by the anticipation of strong tactical voting in marginal Conservative seats that are within reach of the LibDems somewhere South West of Labourgravia. There's also a unique pattern in London, where LibDem voters did not switch in droves to the Conservatives in the early 21st century, but to Labour. And are now just coming back home while Labour also lose quite a few to the Greens. Then let's go to the rest of England, where recent polling has opened our eyes to new voting patterns, quite different from the past, that have silently tectonicified the political map.
Obviously the comparison with the 2005 votes can be weakened by the fact that, back then, the Liberal Democrats were still something of a thing, bagging 22% of the popular vote across the UK. But the relative strengths of the Conservatives and Labour are still hints to what shifts in voting patterns have happened over time. Especially when they show that, unlike London, the LibDem vote in the rest of England initially shifted more towards the Conservatives than towards Labour, before somewhat regenerating at the 2019 election and in current polls. There are also some intriguing patterns in the Reform UK vote. It is predicted to be double the Brexit Party vote in 2019, but this is mostly an issue of optics. They stood in less than half the constituencies in 2019, so you have to expect their apparent vote would more than double if they stood in all constituencies, as polls imply, and it's actually below this simplistic maths GB-wide. Which means they have actually lost votes if you reason ceteris paribus. The very noticeable exception is the North, where they would now do better than the LibDems. You certainly can link this to working-class Euroscepticism, which can also turn into working-class nationalism, and was fueled beyond expectations by the unfortunate chain of events of 2019, mostly the divisive and unnecessary last European Parliament election.
The reason I’m talking like this is cos I’m having to think as I’m talking
(Gemma Collins, 8 Out Of 10 Cats, 2020)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 1973
They just seduce you with the Boots Meal Deal, you guys like a deal here
You see three things cost less than two things, you lose your shit
(Nigel Ng, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2022)
The current seat projection is kind of bad news for Labour, as it shows their peak to be behind them. This is not quite the worst version of all possible hung Parliaments, but it comes close. A minimal Lab-Lib coalition, with outside support from the SDLP and the Alliance Party, would be nine seats shy of a majority. And an extended coalition also including Plaid Cymru and the Greens would still be two seats shy. This is the weakest Labour has been since the PartyGate shit seriously hit the fans. It looks like Labour hasn't got the memos that warned them that Boris Johnson would wriggle his way out of the whole shitshow, as he usually does with some legerdemains and boisterous after-dinner waffling. They also probably failed to see that the narratives about The End Of Covid As We Know It and the Russian War Scare were lifelines for Bozo and that he would make the most of both, to try and overcome the public's loss of faith in him and his Cabinet.
The Conservatives have certainly made good use of the Commons' recess, which means less media coverage for the Opposition, and fewer opportunities to debunk Tory lies. This seems to have become John Bercow's full-time job now. But even this kind of scathing attacks, no matter how fun to watch they are, probably have jack shit influence on voting intentions. It's also quite weird that Keir Starmer thought that the recess was the right moment to revive attempts to deselect Jeremy Corbyn. Sly Keir might not have thought this one through, or else he would have noticed that Jezza will be just a few days shy of 75 when the next general election happens, and will have been an MP for 41 years. So it would have been a wise option to avoid poking him and his supporters, and just wait for him to announce his retirement. So you have to wonder what is Keir's real thinking behind his obsession with culling the Left. Is it a means to an end? And, if so, what end? Or is it an end in itself? Even Tony Blair tolerated the Socialist Left, to some extent, so it's hard to see what Keir exactly hopes to achieve by antagonising them. Or he might not have correctly assessed the risk of a mass defection of the Socialist Campaign Group, which would be fucking awful PR for Labour as a whole. Some day we will surely know.
I think the people who buy sushi from Boots
Are the same people who would buy a dildo from Poundland
(Nigel Ng, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2022)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 1973
Burgundy makes you think of silly things, Bordeaux makes
you talk about them, and Champagne makes you do them
(Anthelme Brillat-Savarin)
On current numbers, we have 98 Conservative MPs going down, with no loss to the democratic process as lots of them have behaved like bottom of the barrel was an aspirational target. So they shouldn't be amazed that the wheels came off the horse this time aboot. And, before you ask, 98 is the right number even if the seat projection seems to say 95. Because the Conservatives would also gain three seats, one from Labour in London and two from the SNP. Labour's three biggest trophies would be Medium Dogs who have become regulars of the fatality list: George Eustice, Alok Sharma and Grant Shapps. While the Liberal Democrats would get the heads of Dominic Raab and Solicitor General Alex Chalk. A dozen junior Ministers would also lose their seats, among them Stephen Hammond, Maggie Throup, Iain Stewart, Michael Ellis, Chloe Smith, Stuart Andrew, Lucy Frazer and Robin Walker. Plus some others of diverse status like Robert Buckland, Graham Brady, Tobias Elwood, Amanda Solloway, Andrea Jenkyns, Damien Moore, Lucy Allan and Steve Baker. And finally the usual cohort from the bottom ranks of the rank bottom-feeders, like Virginia Crosbie, Elliot Colburn, Gary Sambrook, Daniel Kawczynski, Craig Whittaker, Jack Lopresti, Philip Davies, Imran Ahmad-Khan and a Brexit-Busload of others who got their proverbial fifteen minutes for all the wrong reasons.
Interesting things have happened in Scotland, Wales and London over the last two weeks. It now looks like the Labour spikes we saw in Wales and London were the outliers after all, and we're back to something approaching a New Normal. Which is not terminally bad for London Labour, as they would lose only Dagenham and Rainham, a marginal seat with an unusually high Brexit Party vote in 2019. The situation is more awkward in Wales, where the unprecedented rise of Plaid Cymru actually works against Labour, as it allows the Conservatives to hold a handful of marginal seats by a hare's breath, where Plaid Cymru now reaches around 15% of the vote. We also have quite an embarrassing situation now for the SNP, as it is their lowest result in all my blog predictions since December 2019, though not the absolute worst on individual polls. Of course, if this came true, SNP Central could still claim it's three quarters of the Scottish seats and thusly the eighth or ninth mandate for whatthefuckever, and also the third best result in the party's history. And I could still joke it's more of a setback for the crossdressers than for independence. But it can also be read as another sign of the public's disenchantment with the SNP, which the recent freeports farce and its fallout can only make worse. Just have to wait another eleven weeks now for the people's verdict at the Council elections.
There's an odd situation in the Midlands, where Labour would stay far short of their 2005 intake, while bagging a higher share of the vote. This is surely the result of what happened in 2010, when Labour lost half of their Midlands seats overnight and never recovered, even with the Corbyn Surge in 2017. Some Conservative newbies of 2010 have thusly had more than a decade to entrench themselves in seats that were previously Labour, and even the kind of swing we have now is not enough to dislodge them. It visibly doesn't work the same way for the Tory Class of 2019 in the North, who haven't had time to dig their burrows deep enough. They are also not helped by the English Government's inept handling of the alleged 'leveling up' policies, and would be dismissed in one fell swoop. A sign of shifting voting patterns is now that Labour would only exceed their Corbyn Surge in the North by a handful of seats, and still fail to duplicate their 2005 performance, still the benchmark for a totally satisfactory performance. So the ebbs and flows of voting intentions in the Midlands have made them the weakest link on Labour's road to Number Ten, while the South remains the unexpectedly strongest one. With a winning combination of Labour doing well in the Inner Commuter Belt, and the LibDems reclaiming lost territory in the Outer Commuter Belt and all the way down in the nether regions of Cornwall.
There’s facts, and then there’s the truth
(ACC Derek Hilton, Line Of Duty, 2017)
© Gary Brooker, Keith Reid, 1973
This version from In Concert with the Danish National Concert Orchestra and Choir, 2006
Why do we think glasses make people look smarter?
When you have to fail a test to get them
(Jon Snow)
Today's detour abroad is about the Hungarian parliamentary election, that will be held on 3 April. It is going to be a head-on clash between the ruling coalition of the hardline conservative Fidesz and the Christian-democratic KDNP on one side, led by the infamous Prime Minister Orbán Viktor (aye, Hungarians always put family name first and given name second so, when in Budapest....) and Egységben Magyarországért (United For Hungary), a big tent coalition of all opposition parties from the nationalist right to the social-democrats, led by Márki-Zay Péter, a self-identifying right wing Christian who won the opposition primary in 2021, and also supports European integration and gay rights. I never said Hungarian politics were simple, did I? But the coalition holds tight so far, despite the obvious ideological differences between the member parties. Besides these two, a constellation of minor parties are also competing. The two most noticeable ones are the MKKP (Two-Tailed Dog Party) which is a bit like the local Monster Raving Loony Party, and the MHM (Our Homeland Movement) which a bit like the conspiracist right wing of Reform UK. Both have absolutely jack shit chance of ever getting an MP, but are nevertheless regularly included in voting intentions polls. Contrary to popular belief, Hungarian polls are just as reliable, or unreliable, as British ones, and they're all we have anyway. The trends show a rather close race between the united opposition and the ruling coalition, with a more favourable position for Fidesz since early December, plausibly linked to the current crisis with Russia, who might boost an odd combination of nationalist and pro-Russian, or possibly just anti-EU, feelings within the Hungarian public.
Not that these polls really help in predicting the number of seats for each party. The Hungarian Parliament has only one chamber, the Országgyűlés, with 199 MPs elected by a unique mixed-member system with a compensatory component. 106 MPs are elected in constituencies on first past the post. The other 93 are elected on a national list by the D'Hondt method with a 5% threshold. But with an odd compensatory component where the surplus votes of the constituency winners, and all votes of the constituency losers, are added to the list votes before the allocation of seats. All the gory details are better explained here, from a Hungarian source close to the opposition, who analysed the then-new rules when they were passed in 2012. Now you might think the Hungarian election has no relevance for the British people, and you might be right. But, as always, you might also want to look at the bigger picture. Hungary under Fidesz has become a hub of Euroscepticism and defiance to EU institutions, with a rhetoric that unsurprisingly mirrors Vote Leave's talking points. So their defeat would be a positive sign for Europhiles and a blow to Eurosceptics, which can only be a good thing in the long term. Hungary is also in some sort of loose low-signal 'special relationship' with Russia, mostly for economic reasons. It was also a factor in Hungary massively buying doses of the Russian Sputnik V Covid vaccine, outwith the EU's vaccine procurement process. They have become the weakest link in the EU's responses to Russia, and a political change there can only help anyone who is determined to stand up to Putin. So maybe, just maybe, Brits should show more interest. What will happen in Budapest might very well have a butterfly effect in London, and hopefully a positive one.
Sometimes you don’t lose, you just run out of time
(Ted Hastings, Line Of Duty, 2021)
© Gary Brooker, Matthew Fisher, Keith Reid, 1968
This version from Procol Harum Live: In Concert With The Edmonton Symphony Orchestra, 1972
In Memory Of Gary Brooker
Singer, pianist, songwriter
29 May 1945 - 19 February 2022
