Falsehood, having won the day, now made boldly wherever light, when poor truth must sneak away, slyly skulking in the night. Yet, to have eyes by night, you’ll find is better than by day be blind.
(Mercurius Pragmaticus, January 1649)
© Peter Gabriel, Steve Hackett, Tony Banks, Mike Rutherford, Phil Collins, 1973
I see the universe. I see the patterns. I see the foreshadowing that precedes every moment of every day. It’s all there. I see it. And you don’t. And I have a surprise for you. I have something to tell you about the future. It is so. But we have to see this through till the end.
(Leoben Conoy, Battlestar Galactica: Flesh And Bone, 2004)
Some more accessible, yet still adventurous classic prog rock this time, with Genesis's Selling England By The Pound, released on 5 October 1973. If you agree with me that The Lamb Lies Down On Broadway is the odd one out, and in a special league of its own, this one is the best of the whole Gabriel era. And the second best of their whole career after Wind And Wuthering, but that's just my opinion. Bonus tracks are embedded in the middle. First the single version of "Watcher Of The Skies", released in February 1973 and quite different from the earlier album version on Foxtrot. Then "Twilight Alehouse", also recorded during the Foxtrot sessions (not live at the Rainbow Theatre, as the video's title says), but left out of it and released only as the B-side of the "I Know What I Like" single in February 1974. Selling England By The Pound is the most quintessentially English of all Genesis albums, and thusly the perfect soundtrack for some thoughts on Brexit's Fifth.
As usual. Images. Click. Bigger. You know the drill. And here is your starter for ten.
We've got five years, my brain hurts a lot, sang David Bowie fifty-three years ago, and lots of Brits probably feel the same as we have now reached the fifth anniversary of Brexit. Boris Johnson's magnum opus, which he would probably have celebrated for months if Covid-19 had not blown away all his best laid plans. So, five years on, now is the time for introspection, buyer's remorse and reframing our trauma. Obviously, there is plenty of that in the polls that probed our brains and guts around this fateful anniversary. One of our existential questions about Brexit is whether it was the right or wrong decision. YouGov and Ipsos both probed the Great British Public about this, just a few days apart and with very similar results. So I did what Richard Osman asks contenders to do on a classic round of House Of Games, and I took the average as my answer, It clearly says Brits now conclusively think that Brexit was a fucking wrong idea, There is no way to go against this conclusion when even Jeremy Clarkson turns on you, bites your fucking head off, and ditches your fuming entrails in a swamp.
Of course, that's just the classic 20/20 hindsight we all get from looking in the rear-view mirror, or summat. There are clearly generational and political divides here. It's also interesting to see that the Welsh have massive buyer's remorse, even if we Scots remain the most likely to say Brexit was a fucking mistake. We always told you so, mates, didn't we? Now, if we switch from the rear-view mirror to looking down the road, an even more massive majority think that Brexit was a failure. Oddly, some Brits think that it was both a success and a failure, and as many think it was neither. Which is fucking odd, because that can't happen in real life: It's binary, mates, there's no such thing as Brexitfluid. Here we see why the Welsh are so massively thinking Brexit was the wrong choice, that's because they massively think it was a failure. Which was quite inevitable, because that's what happens when deprived communities are manipulated by unscrupulous politicians, and realise the magic 'remedy' has hurt them even more. No such thing in Scotland, we are totally consistent. We voted against it, know it was the wrong choice, and know it failed. End of.
It is quite sad to see that the English politicariat have now traded one delusion for another. The delusion of Brexit's sunlit uplands against the delusion of doing just as well all by ourselves. It's quite ridiculous to see Keir Starmer turning all Basil Fawlty, and ordering us to not mention Brexit, as if anyone would listen. Keir Starmer lacking the baws to reopen the Brexit debate, because he is feart of a dozen bozos on his own backbenches, doesn't mean it should never be reopened. Not working for closer ties with the European Union, and sticking to the toxic fairy tale of a 'special relationship' with the USA, as David Lammy did in a desperate effort to get their attention, only means that we are surrendering our destiny to the 200,000 or so illiterate rednecks in the backwaters of Georgia and Pennsylvania, who actually choose the President of the United States. Obviously, you can't have an 'all of the above' approach to this, but that's what Starmer has just done. It's already his fucking stupidest move of the year, and we're barely two months into it. Perhaps he should listen to the people, who have a strong opinion now about what should have been and what should be.
If 2016 was replayed, the Great British Public would vote to remain. If they were asked to choose between the options that are now possible, they would choose to rejoin. There is no real surprise here, and both options are predictably supported by massive majorities. If you remove undecided and abstainers, the current projected result of a rebooted EU Referendum would be 58% to rejoin against 42% to stay out. A fucking lot more conclusive than the 2016 vote. Of course, I am not the EU's Number One Fan, and there would be many major issues to solve, first and foremost the Euro. But it is quite obvious now, after Donald Trump's abject betrayal of Ukraine, that rejoining the EU is not just a smart move, but a vital and pressing necessity, Our duty to ourselves, our allies and our descendants. All pros and cons properly considered, Starmer must do the unthinkable. Set up a referendum about rejoining, and make sure the authorising Act of Parliament explicitly says it will be binding, which is totally allowed constitutionally. And let Nigel Farage mansplain us we would be better off as the 51st state, or more likely the Londongrad Oblast, considering where his real allegiance is.
For the charge, I value it not a rush. It is the liberty of the people of England that I stand for.
(Charles I, 23 January 1649)
© Peter Gabriel, Steve Hackett, Tony Banks, 1973
You claim to be looking out for the people, to be protecting their liberties. But actions speak louder than words, you have written your meaning in bloody characters throughout the realm.
(John Bradshaw, 23 January 1649)
Nine years ago, the now massively discredited Leave Campaign kept telling us that Brexit was the key to a new Golden Age, better than the Elizabethan Age and the Victorian Age combined, better even than the Post-War Dream. The Great British Public fell for it, but the hard truth and the indisputable facts have now given hindsight to the blind. A massive majority say that Brexit was bound to fail, no matter what. Even Conservative voters agree, albeit narrowly. Nigel Farage's British Union of Putinists are the only ones left thinking it had all the ingredients of a success, and only the way successive governments handled it turned it into a failure. Because, ye ken, it was all an Establishment conspiracy all along. Nothing to do with the whole fucking thing being a totally rotten ideological construct right from the start, of course.
YouGov had to pursue this matter further and added a follow-up question in their bespoke Brexit poll, about where the Great British Public feel a positive impact of Brexit, or a negative one. To be totally fair and balanced, they picked a laundry list of 18 topics, covering pretty much all the domains of politics and the people's concerns. Clearly the Great British Public think there is barely anything to salvage from the field of smoking ruins left behind by Brexit. They even credit Brexit with an extremely low positive impact on immigration and the NHS, which you might remember were two of the key talking points of the Leave Campaign. There is also a consensus that Brexit massively hurt our economy, our influence and our living standards. Everything that the Leave Campaign said were immense benefits waiting to be reaped on the sunlit uplands of Brexit. But they knew all the time they were just talking bullshit, didn't they? Obviously, Boris did and didn't care. Because it was never about making the UK freer and stronger, it was always about scoring cheap points in a Tory Civil War and securing his path to Number Ten.
The Great British Public are even not convinced that Brexit made us stronger when facing Covid-19, which also was one of Bozo's favourite fairy tales. Surely he doesn't want anyone to remember that he would have gambled om herd immunity, and never enforced the First Great Lockdown nearly five years ago, if both the President and the Prime Minister of France had not threatened to close the border if he didn't. Or that he once ranted aloud about staging a military raid on vaccine warehouses in the Netherlands, because the production of his beloved home-made Oxford vaccine was not gaining momentum fast enough. The second half of YouGov's laundry lists elicited little more Brexit-friendly replies, as Brits correctly assess that Brexit has toxified British politics, weakened Bozo's sacrosanct Union and endangered our public finances. We have the receipts for all of this, but there also is an unexpected odd one out in there.
The surprising, and actually quite shocking, finding here is that a third of Brits think that Brexit gave us more control over our own laws. It is actually a matter for debate, as there seems to be some misunderstanding about what Theresa May's Great Repeal Bill of 2018 actually said. Probably because the Act itself was ambiguous and even contradictory. Of course, it did say that EU legislation and directives would no longer be taken into account in new Acts of Parliament, which supports the view that we took back control. But it also said that all the EU legislation and directives already embedded in existing Acts would remain in place in the name of legal continuity. Only Boris Johnson's Brexit Freedoms Bill of 2023 can actually be described as taking back control of our laws, though its scope was massively reduced by the parliamentary debate. The already massively overhyped Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch had to concede that only a fifth of Jacob Rees-Mogg's pet hate, the so-called 'Retained EU Law', was actually repealed. Which is not taking back lots of control, but never mind, all that mattered was that Bozo got some juicy soundbites anyway.
We fought for the public good and would have enfranchised the people and secured the welfare of the whole groaning creation, if the nation had not more delighted in servitude than in freedom.
(John Cook, October 1660)
© Tony Banks, Mike Rutherford, 1973
If you ever do that again, I’ll cut off your balls and feed them to you. Trust me, I’ve done worse.
(Michaela Pratt, How To Get Away With Murder, 2017)
Elon Musk is now flooding us with bullshit propaganda, especially targeting Germany to convince them that electing Putin-cocksucking neo-Nazis is the only way to Make Europe Great Again. I have a feeling this will backfire as Europeans won't be lectured by an opportunistic shit-stirrer whose main interest is to make more dosh off the worldwide pillaging of natural resources. His second obsession is to get rid of regulation everywhere it exists, and that's why he has this compulsive fixation on weakening the European Union by any means he can afford. This inspired YouGov to offer us a side-dish of Elmo-specific polling as part of their monthly Eurotrack omnibus poll. I have extracted only the results from the UK, as they're the only ones that really matter to us, and it's safe to assume Elmo will absolutely hate it.
So Brits think Elon Musk knows jack shit about our politics and Europe's, doesn't have much influence either here and there, and should stay the fuck out of our business anyway. We don't even credit him with much knowledge of American politics, which is fucking hilarious, and think he shouldn't meddle with that either. Interestingly, the poll reveals that Germans have an even greater dislike of Elmo's interference in their politics, which is now facing a successful legal challenge. Cuddling neo-Nazis isn't such a brilliant idea after all, mate. The Great British Public will obviously reject any attempt from Musk to interfere in our elections, as he is already trying to do, as we know what the ultimate goal is. Not the promotion of free speech, but the promotion of Russian interests through their agents in our far-right parties. Musk's strategy, and Donald Trump's too, includes blocking any attempt to strengthen European unity. But YouGov has found that British public opinion has radically different options in mind.
A substantial majority reject loosening our ties with the European Union any further, and even the post-Brexit status quo is no longer seen as a valid option. We already have seen that a majority of Brits are ready for the most ambitious option, repealing Brexit completely. But Keir Starmer still has fallback options for a lesser kind of rapprochement with the EU, if he is too feart of vociferous Brexiteers. The Great British Public will buy anything that is not the continuation of the present state of our relationship with the EU. But, if Starmer had any real political flair, he would seize the opportunity to do something bolder than just a token move towards the EU. YouGov, in another flash poll, have even identified a significant area of cooperation that the British public would strongly support. And they certainly did not randomly pick which option to survey, as it is one that makes massive sense in the current international context, closer military cooperation.
This would definitely be complete anathema to Nigel Farage, but even a majority of his own voters support it. Quite remarkably, Scots support increased military cooperation with the EU more strongly than the rest of the UK, despite the efforts of our Putin-enabling faux pacifists still pushing simplistic narratives from epochs long past. I'm not usually one to advocate governing by polls, but this is just the situation where Keir Starmer should do it, even against his own basic instinct to never shake the tree. The price to pay for doing it would be insignificant, just some performative squealing from the far-left and the far-right, and meaningless in comparison of the price to pay for not doing it. This should be a self-evident truth when the nominally Vice-President of the United States is on record stating that the Trumpistas would prioritise the business interests of their biggest donor over the defence of the Free World™ against an invasion by the New Model Soviet Reich. Then our only option is not just some basic military agreement with the EU, which the British public already support, but integration into a Common European Defence, which the British public will support when facing the alternative of no defence at all. Only Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage could find fault with that, couldn't they?
The demons on our shoulders whisper in our ears, and we dance to their tune.
(Lee Knight, Dalziel & Pascoe, 2006)
© Mike Rutherford, Phil Collins, 1973
We must act today in order to preserve tomorrow. And let there be no misunderstanding, we are going to begin to act, beginning today.
(Ronald Reagan, Inaugural address, 20 January 1981)
BMG Research also added some Brexit-related stuff to the last iteration of their monthly omnibus poll for The Independent. This one also highlights the very sad state of British politics, as Keir Starmer has made indecisiveness a way of life, while public opinion is ready for radical action to unseat the hold of defeatist mind. Surely Starmer knows he can't spend the next four years tiptoeing around the elephant in the bush, the Ghost of Brexit Past. Or is he under the lethal delusion that he can? But he will have to do better than that, as the BMG poll proves that the Great British Public don't think that our relationship with the EU is a settled matter. Quite the opposite actually, as the poll clearly says that we have wasted enough tine already, and this relationship should be reset.
BMG also surveyed which shape this reset should take. The options on the table are not the same as in the YouGov poll, and some of the replies even contradict it. But it's not the precise recipe that matters. but the general direction. It is also hugely disappointing that BMG got their wires crossed and included the European Convention on Human Rights in a poll about Brexit. Only the Brexit fanatics want to entertain the myth that the ECHR is in any way linked to the EU. It isn't and never was, as it is a creation of the Council of Europe and its main architect was Winston Churchill, years before the EU existed. But it has become a totem for the Brexiteers and the loony wing of the Conservative Party, which tends to include the whole of the Conservative Party these days, because they are obsessively illiberal and want to jeopardise all of our human rights. This is the exact same trajectory as Viktor Orban and Donald Trump, and obviously a cheap talking point that Elon Musk and his FSB handlers will use to undermine the foundations of our democracy.
It is reassuring to see that the Great British Public are wholly in favour of restoring the freedom of movement, not just for the TikTok Generation, but also for booze and grub. There is an underlying subtext here too, that we support every option that would reduce bureaucracy and rewind red tape, as there is now more of that to cross from Dover to Calais than from North Korea to South Korea. Which is fine by me, so long as it doesn't shapeshift into some Muskian monstrosity that would jeopardise health and safety, or necessary safeguards of workers' rights. All this polling looks like a paradise of milk and honey to the ears of those who always thought Brexit was the worst decision made by the Great People Of These Isles since the 1979 general election. But there is still a way the vestigial Brexiteers could spook us out of returning home to Europe. Ipsos have identified which variables could be the fatal clots in the works. The main stumbling block is, as you probably have guessed already, the Euro.
There is no doubt that the English have a quasi-mystical relationship with the Pound Sterling, which Scots mostly don't share. Though most of us will probably sympathise with the second main obstacle to perfect European bliss, the protection of our fishermen. Remember that the now-defunct Banff and Buchan, home to Fraserburgh and Peterhead, was the only Scottish constituency that voted Leave in 2016. So, if the debate was ever seriously reopened, the currency would be a tricky issue in England, and fishing rights would be in Scotland. Especially as current EU rules, that differ from those that existed in 2016, make it impossible to opt out of either. In a perfectly rational world, it would be easy to make the point that the pros of European integration far outweigh the cons. In our real world, dominated by the free movement of fake news and manipulation, I'm not so sure.
I mean, you want to be the best duck hunter, you go where the ducks are. And you take the hoisin sauce with you.
(Siobhan Sharpe, W1A, 2017)
© Peter Gabriel, Tony Banks, Mike Rutherford, Phil Collins, 1972
Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one. But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.
(Terry Pratchett)
When something has gone so abysmally wrong you haven't yet recovered from your hangover five years on, it's always tempting to name and shame the one who's to blame. Ipsos did just that for us, asking those who think Brexit was a success who was the main contributor to this success, and those who think Brexit was a failure who was mostly responsible for this failure. In a hilarious and quintessentially British way, our old mate Boris Johnson wins the BAFTA in both categories. The other usual suspects, from David Cameron to Theresa May, don't even come close in their share of the guilt for the failure. But how can the Great British Public choose who's to praise for the 'successes' of Brexit, when they can't name any? Maybe some day that mystery will be solved.
For the near future, BMG tested two options that are clearly mutually exclusive if you consider all the details, closer ties with the EU vs a free trade deal with the USA, which is definitely not the one I would recommend. I think we can trust Trump to hold up his end of bargain as much as Putin. Trump will renege as soon as he sees an opening for a better deal elsewhere. Putin will renege as soon as he sees an opportunity to chop your head off and get away with it. Different process, same result, you're fucked. But Labour will surely ignore the red flags, now that Peter Mandelson is on record channelling his inner Chamberlain, appeasing the Orange Baboon with the same tepid discourse Old Neville would have used about the Reichskanzler of 90 years ago. Wait until Trump puts a 25% tariff on guacamole, and we'll see who will be laughing then.
The UK government's attitude is hard to understand, when all of Trump's public statements point to a 'Me, me, me' vision of transactional diplomacy. Which is actually an oxymoron as there is nothing transactional in genuine diplomacy. It's the art of compromise, not the art of the deal. Especially when the essence of the thing is not about striking a deal, but about screwing the other party. Which is not just Trump's modus operandi, but also Putin's. Keir Starmer should also factor in the obvious change from Trump XLV to Trump XLVII, from a hexagonal number to a supersingular prime, under Elon Muck's influence. It's no longer even the pretence of a rational and codified Presidency. Now all the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players in a planetary reboot of The Apprentice. From which he was fired eventually, by the way. Let's not end that chapter on a gloomy note, though, as BMG has also asked their panel which kind of impact they would expect from the UK rejoining the EU, and most of it is positive.
It's mostly positive, but in cautiously shy way, as large numbers think it would have no impact at all on some issues. But I also feel that the underlying mood is that, if we were ballsy enough to take that bold step that the whole politicariat wants to be kept out of our minds for now, things would get better because we would have proven that we deserve it after all. There's a feeling of audentes deus ipse iuvat here, the EU helps those who help themselves. If it has a positive impact on our economy, our trade and makes our public services better, it will make life better for all of us. I probably wouldn't have said that so clearly just six months ago, but this is also the Trump Effect. Instead of sucking his dick, which we've been told by Stormy Daniels is quite tiny, like Starmer and Badenoch seem determined to do, the sane choice is to tell him to fuck off and go back to our natural family of nations we should never have left. Which would also shield us from the cold and bitter East wind coming all the same, and help us make sure that a cleaner, better, stronger land will lie in the sunshine when the storm has cleared.
We are no longer an empire. We’re not even part of a continent. We’re a small island nation with a great democracy. When the rest of the world stop believing our word, our might goes with it.
(Austin Dennison, The Diplomat, 2023)
© Peter Gabriel, Tony Banks, Anthony Phillips, Mike Rutherford, 1972
All this has happened before, and all of it will happen again. You can’t see that your destiny has already been written. Each of us plays a role, each time a different role. The players change, the story remains the same.
(Leoben Conoy, Battlestar Galactica: Flesh And Blood, 2004)
But Brexit is not the alpha and omega around which all revolves. Stuff has been happening close to home too. Hell hath no fury like a Scot scorned, and we have one more Full Scottish to prove it, fielded by Find Out Now while I was dissecting the last Ukraine polls. It shows that the Labour Branch Office in Scotland are again feeling the full force of the Wrath Of The Clans, and still haven't quite grasped what is coming to get them. It's worse than North Koreans at Kursk or Democrats in Washington DC. Going back in time to Election Day, we have had nine Full Scottish polls of Westminster voting intentions so far, and the trends are unmistakeable. It's a fucking disaster for Labour, with very little benefit for the SNP but a massive surge for Reform UK, who had previously been sort of persona non grata North Of Vallum Hadriani.
It's actually not as bad for Labour as in England, where Reform UK now have a credible claim at being the first party. But it is no longer unthinkable that the British Union of Putinists could become the second party in Scotland. It might just be the right time for Creative Scotland to fund a production of The Resistible Rise Of Arturo Ui in Gaelic, instead of cheap metropolitan middle-class queer porn. Now, Scotland falling out of love with Labour in a matter of weeks definitely has a flavour of More Fool Me, but that doesn't excuse 2 Out Of 10 Scots jumping into Nigel Farage's Death Hug. But, as in many other instances, Labour can blame only themselves for these omnishambles. A slightly earlier poll from Survation shows that the Great Scottish Public have a very dim view of Labour's performance in government.
Even Labour's own Scottish voters are dissatisfied with them, and that's surely why they are deserting them in droves. Of course, pretty much everyone has reasons to be dissatisfied, as pretty much every promise that could be broken has been. And stuff that wasn't in the manifesto and doesn't have popular approval, like Kim Leadbeater's assisted suicide bill, is being pushed against all semblance of political flair. Labour are making it worse by admitting that they were taking their cues from Farage when they decided to ditch gender self-identification, and I certainly won't blame them for that one even if the way it was achieved is quite grotesque, or when they very stupidly thought that some cheap deportation porn would make them look smart. The seat projections from the most recent Full Scottish predict something disturbingly reminiscent of the last general election. A party that is not really popular or really convincing bags a landslide by default just because the other lots are even worse and the opposition vote is lethally split between irreconcilable factions, A Scot Oddity on which my model and Electoral Calculus broadly agree.
Reform UK's best result in a Full Scottish poll so far is 17%, which means no seat so long as the SNP remains on 30% or a wee smitch above. But kick them to 20% and the first domino falls, Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, the Brexiteer hub of Scotland, that the SNP won in 2024 only because the natives hate triple-jobber Douglas Ross more than they hate the EU and wokeism. Make it 23% and that's a plausible six to eight more, all snatched from Labour. Unless some sort of emergency reaction puts the SNP up to 35% or so to block Reform gains, because there's really fuck all to expect here from either Labour or the Conservatives. Then it's a simple choice, one that other countries have had to face already. Do we want a Brandmauer within a cordon sanitaire or do we not? If you agree that the British Union of Putinists are not the good guys, though some lost souls will tell you they are because, ye ken, they know what a woman is, then there's only one possible choice. The SNP. Not because they're the good guys, we know they aren't. But because they're the strongest of all the other parties, have resisted pretty well in polls so far, and the alternative is so massively much worser that there is no debate. None at all. In the same way there was none between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Better woke than fascist. All we have to do is pinch our noses and get used to it.
If you keep running from the school bully, he keeps on chasing you. But when you turn around and stop and punch him really hard in a sensitive spot, he’ll think twice about coming back. Sometimes you have to roll the hard six.
(William Adama, Battlestar Galactica: The Hand Of God, 2005)
© Peter Gabriel, Steve Hackett, Tony Banks, Mike Rutherford, Phil Collins, 1973
This is Weirdos Go Wonky, not Hairy Pooter and The Chamber Pot of Doom. He’s followed the rabbit down the hole, and he’s stuck in Wonderland.
(Andy Dalziel, Dalziel & Pascoe, 2006)
There's one thing all political parties in Scotland should watch carefully. What the polls say about their popularity with the Scottish people. It does have an influence on how people vote, even if it is not the only factor that determines it. The most recent approval poll was conducted by Survation in January, and there are quite a few surprises in it, not all of them positive. The most worrying part is that Nigel Farage gets more votes of approval than anyone else except Ed Davey and the three selected SNP politicians. But the fun part amidst this gloom is that all Green zombies, English and Scottish alike, are less popular than Farage. Looks like the people don't want to be lectured on white privilege and queer equality by scions of the sanctimonious woke metropolitan middle-class who understand jack shit to the real life of real ordinary people, especially those from rural Scotland. Thank Dog for small mercies.
The governing SNP also get mediocre ratings, with more unfavourables than favourables. Surely we are not going to celebrate the people who needed more time to get a ferry up and running to the Isle of Arran than the US Navy needed to get a nuclear aircraft carrier thirty times its size commissioned. Ash Regan also has abysmal ratings, which doesn't actually come as a surprise. The Alba Party has been in turmoil since Alex Salmond's untimely death and seem to have difficulties defining what they really are and stand for now. Their headliners have been stubbornly silent, when asked a direct question, about Ukraine, and their is unambiguous evidence on social media that a majority of their grassroots activists support Russia. From where I'm sat, this has now become the defining litmus issue, a million times more important than kicking men-in-skirts out of women's loos, and I will never apologise for that. Survation also asked their panel about the Scottish Government's and the UK Government's performance, and both fall far short of full marks.
The context here is that the people's main concerns are still the state of the NHS and the cost of living. Economic growth clearly is not, especially when the UK Government seems to consider it as an end in itself, not means to more important ends, and the Scottish Government do not have a fully convincing alternative narrative. New Model Labour face a much harsher backlash here than the SNP, probably because lots of Scots had come to expect much more and much better from them that they are delivering. The SNP have net negatives on all issues, but still fare better than Labour, probably because they are the devil we know, and we are long past actually expecting anything from them. No expectations, no disappointment. QED. Survation then asked their panel if their assessment of the New Model Labour Government made them more or less likely to vote for the Scottish Branch Office at the next Holyrood election, and it reveals quite a ricochet effect from here to there.
What is bound to hurt the most, from Anas Sarwar's point of view, is that Labour voters of seven months ago are split down the middle here. But these are of course the same voters that are now running away from Labour faster than Stephen Fry from Stonewall, and crossing the aisle to the Putin-funded nostalgists of the British Empire. Besides, when you have a demographic that says they are more likely to vote Labour, it doesn't tell you that they actually will. And it's irrelevant anyway if you don't compare it with where you're starting from with that same demographic, which is probably pretty low if you consider what current voting intentions polls say. The Scottish electorate are clearly unwilling to make a difference between Labour in London and Labour in Edinburgh, probably because the locals are struggling between obedience to directives from the Centre and embracing a Scottish way of thinking, and it appears more and more likely to cost them dearly at the next Scottish Parliament election.
When a man goes into a shop to ask for a quarter-inch drill bit, he doesn’t really want a quarter-inch drill bit, does he? What he actually wants is a quarter-inch hole.
(Mark Harper, Unforgotten, 2018)
© Steve Hackett, Mike Rutherford, 1973
Be careful. When a democracy is sick, fascism comes to its bedside, but it is not to inquire about its health.
(Albert Camus)
Scottish politicians of all shades can dismiss the Westminster voting intentions as irrelevant, as the next general is still four years and change away. It's difficult to do the same about the Holyrood voting intentions, as that one is only 15 months away, and the trends we see now look pretty solid. Labour are still on a downward spiral and Reform UK on the rise, in a way that makes it plausible that they are on a collision course, just like in GB-wide Westminster polls. This is a massive bonus for the SNP, even if they are still doing poorly in comparison to the 2021 election. Even with our faux-proportional Additional Members System, the SNP have everything to gain from a three-way split of the core Unionist vote, especially when all three parties are failing to deliver a credible alternative project for Scotland.
Once again, Find Out Now's most recent findings about our Holyrood voting intentions open quite a can of worms about what would happen next. At face value, we still have a pro-Independence majority. But the SNP would obviously ostracise the Alba Party and rule out any deal with them. That would leave them with the now perennial existential choice between the Greens and Labour as a junior partner in a government coalition. John Swinney may not be the sharpest bulb in the cupboard, but I'm confident he would think twice before signing up again with the Greens, even with Nicola Sturgeon looking over his shoulder and pushing that deal from the shadows. A weakened Labour would be a better option, more malleable on policies while avoiding the obvious pitfalls of extremist wokeism that always come with the Greens. This would work even better as the numbers bluntly say again that there would be no workable alternative coalition.
Now, something has happened in England that could open quite fascinating new avenues in Scotland. New Model Labour has given up on its asinine plan to bring gender self-ID to England through the backdoor of a badly drafted bill, reportedly feart that Reform UK would weaponise it against them. I totally agree here with the great Suzanne Moore, that it is a fucking shame that this happened for petty electoral motives and under pressure from the British Union of Putinists, when it should have happened in response to courageous women on the left like Rosie Duffield or Suzanne herself. But there's a silver lining to it too, that Labour have got and read the memo that the American Democrats still pretend was never sent, that submission to the kindergarten politics of absolutist wokeism is a vote-killer and only propels the authoritarian illiberal far-right to power. It has happened there, it can happen here. But I don't expect the SNP to be struck by grace in the same way, as they may also have dug themselves so deep down that rabbit hole that they are now stuck and can't reverse out, even if their life depended on it. Interestingly, and totally coincidentally, YouGov have just published an update of an earlier poll on 'transgender rights'. I will discuss it more at length later, and for now I have just extracted a few items that are relevant to Scottish politics.
The poll covers a truckload of issues that all have serious political meaning. They also offer a breakdown of the replies by nation. I have selected some of the most significant replies from England, which is always very close to the GB-wide average, and Scotland. So you instantly see that Scottish public opinion is strikingly similar to English public opinion on what are plausibly the defining issues of the 'trans rights' debate, They, and we, are tolerant of 'gender identity' as a private matter, but opposed to giving it any sort of legal recognition. Likewise, nobody wants 'gender affirmation' to be offered free at the point of delivery by the NHS. It's OK for yous to ask for it and get it, but pay for it with your own dosh, not the taxpayer's. There is also now renewed pressure for an outright repeal of the Gender Recognition Act 2004, which is seen by gender-critical feminists as the keystone upon which the roots of abusive transgenderism were founded. Petitions to legalise gender self-identification in England and recognise non-binary as a 'legal identity' have already been rejected during the 58th Parliament, and a new one is now underway for a full repeal of the GRA. It will be interesting to see how New Model Labour handle this one when it clears the thresholds for a mandatory Government response and a mandatory debate in Parliament. And just don't expect anything from the Conservatives here, whatever Kemi Badenoch gesticulates about, as they had 14 years to repeal it and did jack shit.
A part of me swims in the stream. But, in truth, I’m standing on the shore. The current never takes me downstream. The difference between you and me is, I know what that means and you don’t.
(Leoben Conoy, Battlestar Galactica: Flesh And Blood, 2004)
© Tony Banks, Mike Rutherford, Phil Collins, 1973
Russia will take us back to the Dark Ages and everyone knows that. And the Western world must make up its mind whether it wants to preserve what has been six thousand years of borning in civilisation.
(Ronald Reagan, Presidential campaign, 1980)
Of course I can't leave you today without some more words about Ukraine. First we have had Donald Trump talking to Vladimir Putin over everybody's heads and proposing a 'peace plan' that is actually the worst capitulation and the most abject betrayal of an ally since the Munich Agreement of 1938. Then we have had the 2025 episode of the yearly Munich Security Conference, which has 'Peace Through Dialogue' as its motto, not the most auspicious attitude when the actual situation is more like securing peace through strength. You don't dialogue with imperialist fascists, you do all that's necessary to woodchip them to mincemeat in the bins of history. But seeing the Orange Baboon becoming Vlad The Butcher's quockerwodger, after having hoped he was double-bluffing and trying to bait Vlad into doing summat really fucking stupid, has reopened some time-honoured debates. Like the one about the real solidity of NATO and the wisdom, or lack thereof, of counting on guaranteed protection under Big Brother Sam's military umbrella. YouGov were of course prompt to poll that even before JD Vance was back home from Munich, with quite surprising results.
A plurality of Brits now think that the Yanks have no obligation to protect us, or it might be just the translation of a belief that they won't. I am totally convinced it would have gone the other way just a year ago. But Trump's multiple threats to withdraw all sorts of American military presence in Europe, which was always smoke and mirrors anyway, as its current budget is barely $3bn or 4% of the UK's defence spending, and is sharply down from 2023 and 2024. This clearly proves, if it was ever needed, that Trump always planned on letting Europe down and fending for itself against Russian imperialism. His capitulation plan for Ukraine is just the first step in that direction, clearly signalling that the United States' official position is now to appease fascist Russia and reward Vlad The Butcher for his genocidal imperialist stance. It is even worse than Chamberlain's version of appeasement, as it is not just submitting to fascism, it's actively helping them destroy a democratic ally fighting for its freedom, While trying to extort an extravagant amount of protection racket from the ally they just threw under the bus. YouGov's snap polling shows that a majority of Brits don't buy Trump's fake peace deal, but barely.
It's really sad that one out of six Brits think we should coerce Ukraine into capitulation and enslavement. Of course the British Union of Putinists' voters think we should do that, to nobody's surprise. But there have also been calls from the loony faux-pacifist radical left to 'celebrate peace' when Trump's plan to Make Russia Great Again was unveiled. I guess we see the same patterns at work in YouGov's other snap poll, about how the Great British Public assess Donald Trump's 'peace plan'. It's truly depressing that a third refuse to see it for what it is, a trap designed to work in favour of Russia's interests. Calling it a compromise for both sides, as a majority of British Putinist voters do, is a particularly dangerous delusion, giving in to combined Russian and Trumpist propaganda. All relevant information is on the table now, so you can no longer blame stupidity and ignorance for this kind of attitude. It is clearly complicity, rooted in a combination of excessive permeability to fake news and crass hatred for democracy. That's the sorry state of Britain today, and it's only a small consolation to see Scotland still resisting it. For now.
Then there is the subplot of JD Vance coming to Munich to lecture us on free speech, which is quite outrageous just days after the White House banned Associated Press for refusing to call the Gulf of Mexico 'Gulf of America'. And quite rich coming from the nation ranked 55th out of 180 on the World Press Freedom Index, between Belize and Gabon. Of course JD doesn't really care about free speech, it was just a scripted pre-emptive strike against the regulation of Elon Musk's business in Europe. Or the foreplay to a narrative about neo-Nazis being an 'oppressed and marginalised community' in Europe, co-written with the AfD's leader Vance went out of his way to hug, openly interfering in Germany's incoming general election. The sad part is that Europe, including the UK, didn't instantly tell Vance to fuck off and mind his own fucking business. Diplomacy and civility will be the end of us. Because this pre-scripted offensive against Europe serves only one purpose, coercing us into accepting neo-Nazis and Putinists as a natural part of our political landscape, and the forced capitulation of Ukraine as summat of an acceptable and necessary compromise for peace. Both of which are fucking bullshit. United European Resistance must start now, from London to Kyiv, if it's not already too late. This takes us back full circle where we started, Brexit and what to make of it, or rather dispose of it. We could start by following Volodymyr Zelenskyy's advice after he had recovered from the shock of Trump's treason, and lay the foundations for the Armed Forces of Europe.
Imagine that Hitler wasn’t destroyed. Imagine that after everything he did to the Jews, people said, okay, let’s look for a compromise.
(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)
© Peter Gabriel, 1973
