Brexitocalypse B-10 also 370th Anniversary of the Abolition of the House of Lords (no kidding) and Mike Crockart's birthday
And here is the latest about Scotland's State Of Play 🔊
The big picture
Last time we had comprehensive Scottish polling was early December last year. Plus a substantial and statistically relevant subsample in one of YouGov's GE polls in early January. And now we have two new polls, one by Survation for the Scottish Daily Mail (fielded from 1 to 4 March) and one by Panelbase for Wings Over Scotland (fielded from 26 February to 6 March). Which give us a clearer view of where Scotland stands right now. Except when they don't.
Westminster polls
These results clearly show that Scotland is strongly in opposition to the English GINO (Government In Name Only as our First Minister called them) but also distrusts the shambolic and discredited Scottish Branch Office of the English Labour Party. Only constant surprise is how well Scottish LibDems do despite their obvious irrelevancy, probably just the odd side effect of the combination of pro-Union and pro-EU sentiments.
Here are the voting intentions based on the weighted average of the last three full Scottish polls, all fielded in 2019. Super-sample size is 4,209 for a theoretical 1.46% margin of error. UKIP's and Greens' vote shares are largely hypothetical as such results assume they both would stand in all Scottish constituencies, which won't happen if previous elections are any indication. So in a real election you should expect Conservatives benefiting from a smaller UKIP vote, while Labour and the SNP would both gain some votes from the hypothetical Green vote share.
The SNP up by 'only' 2.5% from 2017 might not look that good at first glance but remember the first party's vote share is not always the main factor. By how much they lead is usually much more significant. And here we have a larger lead for the SNP over both Conservatives and Labour than we had two years ago, with a direct strong impact on the seat projection. With 20 marginal seats and another 26 competitive ones at the last GE, even relatively small changes in the popular vote can have devastating effects.
Right now the basic projection from current polling has the SNP up 10 seats, their best result in a long time as recent polls show a noticeable improvement over what we had last year.
Even when the margin of error is factored in and marginal seats reallocated to the runner-up, worst case scenario for the SNP is still a net gain of five seats (six gained and one lost) while the best case scenario is an impressive gain of fourteen seats with no losses. Scottish Labour is definitely on a downward spiral again with only Ian Murray definitely sure to hold his seat, while Conservatives are likely to be hit by a yellow wave endangering a fair share of their 2017 gains. Only LibDems show some sort of resilience unless the tactical voting they benefited from in 2017 melts away next time.
And here is the full breakdown of the seat projections from worst to best case for the SNP.
The 'SNP Maximum' scenario shows how deep into current Tory territory the SNP could progress. And even this one could be an understatement as I wouldn't bet my shirt on Ross Thomson in Aberdeen South even if the math has him holding his seat by some 2k votes. I have a hunch his good friends in his own party will either deselect him outright, or let him stand and underhandedly undermine his candidacy. Both ways Boaby Snatcher is a goner.
Holyrood polls
Obviously there is a lot of uncertainty about a future Scottish Parliament election, and the very real possibility it might completely reverse the 2016 result and annul the current mandate to seek a second Independence referendum. Which explains why the Scottish Branch Office of the English Conservative Party find it's the right moment to challenge the First Minister to hold a snap Holyrood election. While Tories may be emboldened by the 2018 polls that constantly delivered an Unionist majority even when the SNP remained by far the first party, the last two polls are more confusing as they massively contradict each other. Here are the voting intentions from both polls and the seat projections based on these.
It is obviously quite disturbing that two polls fielded almost simultaneously and with almost the same sample size deliver such amazingly different results: a 15-seat pro-Independence majority on one side and a 9-seat Unionist majority on the other. This can only cast doubt again on the reliability of polls in general, and Scottish ones especially as they failed to predict the actual results three times already. Holyrood 2016, Councils 2017, Westminster 2017. But I will go on a limb here and assume the weighted average of these two polls is somewhere near the electorate's actual state of mind. Based on this bold assumption, here are the voting intentions and seat projection I get:
The constituency seats projection show a number of current Scottish Government Ministers squarely in the danger zone or close to it. At face value Richard Lochhead, Roseanna Cunningham and Mairi Gougeon are projected to lose their seats while John Swinney would be just a few hundred votes away from losing it. Of the SNP's list MSPs currently in Government, only Paul Wheelhouse would possibly be threatened. Of course this is just the math and the personal factor in a real campaign has often gone against the math.
This result would be mildly disappointing for the SNP with a net loss of five seats but they would remain the first party and still the only one seriously able to form a government. The obvious downside would be having the pro-Independence majority saved by the Greens doing better than at the last election and also better than previous polls predicted. Obvious fallout would be the Greens feeling empowered to exert more pressure on the SNP on key votes and we already know this has not always produced positive results. On the other hand the silver lining would certainly be pushing the SNP to be bolder on Independence and the timing of the second referendum.
Finally here is the breakdown of seats by region this scenario would deliver. Some of the list results might appear counter-intuitive at first but that's what the math says. Only the messenger…..
Of course in the grand scheme of things the most important result is that this polling would confirm the triple-lock mandate on Independence: a majority of Scottish MPs, a majority of MSPs, a renewed Scottish Parliament vote in support of Independence. Unionists are proved wrong on all counts: the SNP are not bound to lose their dominant position and the next First Minister will be neither Ruth Davidson nor Richard Leonard. And there is still appetite for Independence, even inconclusive IndyRef polls show it.
Independence polls
The last true IndyRef poll was Panelbase's in December that delivered 47% Yes / 53% No to the standard question (Should Scotland be an independent country?) that was used in 2014 and the only one that can reliably measure changes in public opinion over time. We're none the wiser now than we were then as the latest Panelbase poll for Wings Over Scotland did not include this question. Nice and easy explanation is that Stuart Campbell did not instruct Panelbase to poll it, which is in itself quite amazing. But I have good reasons to suspect that it was in fact the other way round and that he instructed them NOT to poll it and substitute a qualitative question that says nothing about actual voting intentions.
When I questioned him on this Stuart Campbell offered only specious arguments like 'I asked what I am interested in and I have the answers' explicitely implying he is not interested in voting intentions for an hypothetical future Independence referendum. I am quoting from memory as he has since blocked me on Twitter as he can't stand contradiction or being challenged. But nuff said about Bathman and let's focus on what his £10k poll says or fails to say.
What Panelbase asked in March reads: Which do you believe would be better for Scotland? This is the exact same wording Panelbase used in December so it allows for a direct comparison. And the results are not really stellar as Independence vs No-deal Brexit went down from a commanding 18% lead to a meagre 4% while Independence vs Negotiated/May deal Brexit is stable on a less than impressive 6% lead.
Of course such a qualitative question has value on its own as an indication of public opinion's state of mind when faced with alternative scenarios, but unfortunately it says nothing about voting intentions. So the only valid assessment of voting intentions has to be based on earlier polls fielded between October and December 2018 which is like an eternity in a rapidly moving context. Here is what we had back then based on the weighted average of the last six polls:
Even if I considered Wings' Brexit options to be legit estimates of voting intentions, which I don't because they aren't, we still wouldn't have anything remotely like a Yesnami, with Yes still trailing by about 4% on the tweaked weighted average of the last six polls.
So my best educated guess is that we're still roughly where we were at the end of last year, with the 47% Yes found by Panelbase back then a credible basepoint. Which is a good result as we started the first referendum campaign with Yes trailing by 32% and shrunk that to 11% in two years. So just imagine what another powerful and inventive campaign might achieve when we start it trailing by just 6%. The future is in our hands. Let's just make sure there are no missed opportunities and no wasted time. Now is not the time…. to procrastinate.
And now what's next?
The only thing I take for granted is that nothing should be taken for granted. Until yesterday the Prime Minister of England was headed for a Third Meaningful Vote (MV3) that was widely known be illegal even under the loosest interpretation of generally accepted Parliamentary Conventions. Until John Bercow shot it down. Or not now that Steve Barclay argues that the vote should go ahead anyway because of changed circumstances and MPs having the unalienable right to change their votes. Wait wait wait…. aren't these just the arguments in favour of a second Independence referendum?
So the unlikely combination of May stubbornly pushing for a vote she would have lost and did not want in the first place until strongarmed into it by Commons last year, Bercow relishing in adding chaos to shambles using a four-centuries old rule and Barclay totally fumbling his arguments adds fuel to the case for a second Scottish Independence referendum. Did not see that one coming, I must confess. Let's hope this will make Keith Brown's prediction come true, though at the moment I don't totally share his optimism.
The weirdest part in the whole farce is of course May and Leadsom whining all over the place about Bercow blocking their Groundhog Vote that would have led to Groundhog Clobbering, when neither of them wanted a Meaningful Vote in the first place, did all they could to have Commons reject the concept and failed, and then postponed the first vote for a month without any substantially valid reason. Second most farcical aspect is that, despite multiple warnings, nobody in Government seemed to have the slightest clue what Erskine May wrote on the issue, only 175 years ago after all. While the whole of the UK should thank Bercow for preventing this:
© Drunk Wolf @DrunkWolfArt, 2019
So maybe we should wish the whole clusterfuck goes on for a while. At least that would keep the European Union amused at the sheer sight of the Westminster System collapsing and strongly boost England's position as the Number One Laughing Stock of the Civilized World.
With just ten days left before Brexit Day and neither a deal nor an Article 50 extension in sight, a snap GE might be the Conservatives' only way out, especially if the 1922 Committee moves the goalposts and kicks May out despite her 12-month stay of execution from last December. Another unlikely yet possible option is May losing a no-confidence vote, which might happen if the 21 Brexiteer-To-The-End Tory MPs go all the way down the road of their logic and abstain. They would not even need to vote No, their abstention would be enough to woodchip May by a handful of votes. Must be a real concern if even Laura Kuenssberg tweets about such an outcome. One can dream. Or can't he?
So stay tuned for further upsets and the next act of the Bercow Comedy Show.
There is no such uncertainty as a sure thing
© Rory MacDonald, Calum MacDonald 1987
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