Westminster Projection and then some - 25 April 2019 Update

Would have been Brexit 1.0 B+27 or Brexit 2.0 B+13 now Hallowexit B-189
Also 45th Anniversary of the Portuguese Carnation Revolution
and the Johnston Brothers' birthday


Edited 26 April to include results from just published Scottish poll from Survation 

Battle Lines 🔊

With the Westminster powerplay resuming after the Bunny Recess, predictable headlines soon to be: 'Labour still refuses to back Withdrawal Agreement' and '1922 Committee urges May to quit while 17 Tory MPs line up for a leadership contest'. Bottom line: the Conservatives are up Shite Creek without a paddle and pissing upwind. Not that Labour are in a really better shape. They too have shown real expertise in upwind pissing contests, and while they might have the paddle I'm not totally sure they have the canoe. So let's just see what polls had to say over the last month, which is baddish for Labour and worstest for Conservatives as both plunge to around or below 30%.

The last ORB poll for the Telegraph also had full crosstabs across all twelve nations and regions that shed an interesting light on what's happening. Bear in mind that Labour in 2017 bagged a majority of the popular vote in the two Northern regions and London and a strong plurality in Wales and Yorkshire-Humber. While the Conservatives bagged a majority in the three Southern regions and East Midlands, and came close to it in West Midlands. And look at what have now with all these majorities and near-majorities blown to shreds by massive hard-right votes and in a few cases an emerging Change UK on top of LibDems holding their ground.

It is worth noting that, unlike the two main English parties, support for the SNP has increased in both EU election and GE polls. While Nicola Sturgeon's net approval is the highest of all major party leaders even among English voters, and the SNP do better in Council by-elections than any other party. England is succumbing to the deceiving appeal of parochial single-issue parties but Scotland remains faithful to an open-minded and progressive approach. Not that I expect Unionists to sit back, watch and learn even when their claims of SNP being 'out of touch' are proved wrong day after day.

The Die Is Cast 🔊

My current Poll'O'Polls delivers a disturbingly unappealing picture of public opinion's current state of mind. Super-sample is based on the six most recently published polls, fielded between 10 and 21 April, with 10,157 respondents overall and a theoretical 0.94% margin of error. Major lesson here is the combined forces of the New Model Blackshirts surging to a level unseen since 2015. And the weighted average probably underestimates the Brexit Party if the most recent polls are any indication. Also bear in mind that a 5% Labour lead is still far short from what they need for an outright majority under current boundaries and voting patterns, as a double-digit lead would be necessary.

Combined support for the two traditional major parties has sunk to its lowest in living memory, and the two most recent polls have it even lower than my weighted average, at an unheard of 55-56%. I have already stated that I think EU elections are not a predictor of what would happen at the next GE. EU elections tends to maximize the 'protest vote' factor while GEs tend to see people rallying around parties they see fit to govern. But you can't escape noticing the disturbing similarity between 2014 EU election vs 2015 GE on one side, and current EU polling vs current GE polling on the other. If we actually see the same GE pattern repeated with one extremist party bagging 10-15% of the vote or above, and no seats, this will lead to renewed claims that the Westminster System is past its shelf date and that changes to the electoral law are a priority. Only problem here of course being that Alternative Voting has already been defeated and nobody proposes to put it to a popular vote again. And nobody so far has laid out a credible plan for electoral reform. Such a plan would imply replacing FPTP with a different system that would be both more representative of the popular vote and able to deliver a workable government majority. Good luck with that unless we go for a true Mixed Member System such as I advocated for Scotland aeons ago.

One of my Twitter mates correctly pointed out you don't get support for radical change on such tiny voting intentions. Of course we know that Tories' post-Brexit radical change would be turning the UK into one huge tax haven while clampdowning 🔊 on everything with the word 'rights' in it, be it human, workers', women's or LGBT 🔊. So we're better off with them being unable to implement it. Then you might ask what Labour's vision of radical change is now. I don't think unmitigated support for increasing defence spending and renewing Trident counts here. Neither does the fuzzy commitment to some sort of unidentified 'progressive Brexit' when they are unable to agree on any specific definition anyway. Guess then all that we have is Labour stealing the SNP's flagship policies when they realize they work and are popular. While at same time wanting to hold the SNP accountable for the effects of failed Tory policies that had Labour support in Commons by explicit vote or abstention, or events that happened before devolution. Don't look for consistency or a firm and credible direction on their side either. And their Scottish Branch Office Manager might want to look up 'reserved' and 'devolved' to avoid having his ass handed to him on a silver platter weekly at FMQs.

As Long As You Want Me Here 🔊

Current polling would again deliver a hung Parliament where nobody would be a real winner though LibDems and the SNP would again increase their representation and be handed the opportunity to be the kingmakers. This configuration would again be the awkward one where an anti-Tory majority can easily be assembled but a Labour-supporting one is much trickier. PM Corbyn could obviously try a Lab-SDLP-Lib formal coalition resulting in a minority government just one seat shy of a majority. Or even an extended quasi-coalition with Greens and Plaid Cymru that would have a fourteen-seat majority. But both would obviously have a price, probably Corbyn's commitment to a true second EU referendum as the original terms of People's Vote (Yes or No to a Brexit deal) are obviously irrelevant now. Undoubtedly this would cause major turmoil among Labour backbenchers still committed to 'respecting the will of the people' no matter how out of touch it is with the altered state of mind of public opinion.

Incidentally Labour have a strong reason to wish for a snap GE besides favourable polling. There would be no time to even table the infamous 600-seat Great Gerrymander if a snap GE happens sometime this year. But a Tory government on life support would have a powerful incentive and plenty of time to pass it before a 2022 GE. Which would make matters much worse for Labour who would still be the first party, but would lose thirty-one seats while Conservatives would lose only eight. Which fits the pattern described long ago by Electoral Calculus' Martin Baxter.

Right now the main obstacle on Corbyn's road to Number Ten might not be any controversial choice of coalition partners but the fact that people still don't see him a truly PMable. Notwithstanding 'None Of The Above' still being the preferred PM pretty much like 'Any But The Above' is the preferred party, May still leads by some 10%. Even with Theresa May's popularity reaching an all time low with her own party, Corbyn still has a lot to prove. Showing decisive leadership might be a start.

Corbyn has a golden opportunity to show that kind of leadership: serious talks with the devil 🔊 aka the SNP. Looks like Nicola Sturgeon's speech yesterday (teaser, more on this later) has opened quite a few new doors. If Corbyn is ready for any serious discussion on a confidence and supply deal, agreement should be easily reached on symbolic issues like a UK-wide ban on fracking, abolition of the House of Lords and some form of electoral reform, which would be only the entrées. When it comes to the main course Sturgeon would most certainly have leverage for more substantial concessions from Corbyn.

What should be on the table after a snap GE that would see Labour performing only mediocrely is not a Section 30 Order, which Sturgeon implied is no longer the one and only goal, but full devolution of constitutional powers following primary legislation being passed by Scottish Parliament during its current term. Quite a challenge but Corbyn must be driven to understand this is now the key to him becoming the next tenant at Number Ten. Besides PM Corbyn and Deputy PM Starmer (and aye, I'm making that up because naw, I don't have any insider information) might want to have a closer look at the numbers and let sink in what a Scotland-less Rump Commons would mean.

Just factor in that a theoretical 591-seat Scotland-less Commons means 585 actual seats with Sinn Féin still sitting out. With Labour losing just one wee Scottish seat, whose MP might very well have switched to Change UK by then, 294 means a three-seat majority and no need for further boring 1997ish talks with LibDems. So Scottish Independence serves Labour's parochial short-term interests. QED. And not to be brushed aside lightly, or should it? Simples.

The Smile Has Left Your Eyes 🔊

My assessment of current polling is that a massive 93 seats would change hands from their current holders, which means only 87 from the previous election as Change UK has added a new variable to the game (more on them later). As expected Tories would lose big including the frontbench and government payroll with one Secretary of State (aye richt, Cruella De Rudd), the Solicitor General for England and Wales, three Ministers of State, eight Junior Ministers, three Parliamentary Private Secretaries, four Whips and two Conservative Party Vice-Chairs losing their seats. Full casualty list here:

All would not be milk and honey to Corbyn's ears though (can't escape mixed metaphors) despite the new trophies hanging on his office walls. The balance of gains and losses show only a lacklustre Labour performance with many competitive Tory seats still not falling though they may be within reach. Unseating most of the ChUKers including the ex-Tory ones would be just a consolation prize though one that would undoubtedly make Corbyn's day. Sweet revenge 🔊. Neither would such results be a complete disaster for the Conservatives like 1997 and 2001 and Theresa May's successor would have a fair shot at surviving the day to lead the next fight. But of course media would most certainly make headlines out of the SNP's projected performance, clearing 50 for the first time since the last GE with 16 gains and no losses. Or wouldn't they?

I have now added the current eleven Change UK seats to my projection. It is still difficult to predict them by math only, so my projection is a mix of math and educated guess. Right now it says Umunna and Gapes would survive while eight of the other nine seats would go to Labour and one to the Conservatives. From the formerly Labour seats Penistone and Stockbridge (Angela Smith) was a marginal in 2017 and even a smallish Change UK vote would be enough to hand it to the Tories. From the three formerly Conservative seats Broxtowe (Anna Soubry) is the most exposed with Labour projected to gain it anyway in a 'standard' context. South Cambridgeshire (Heidi Allen) would now be a four-way marginal with Labour having a headstart over the LibDems to switch it. Finally Totnes (Sarah Wollaston) would be a three-way marginal with Change UK scraping away enough Tory votes to make it a Labour gain by a donkey's hair.

Caught In The Crossfire 🔊

Current polling would leave us with 51 technically marginal seats, which is actually not that much. But we would still have about 150 potentially competitive seats (Marginal and Lean ratings), pretty much the same as in 2017 or in earlier projections. With the battleground significantly shifting into Little England Tory territory, which is just what Labour need to both win the election and stop whining about the long lost Scottish seats, only one of which would still be possibly within their reach besides Ian Murray's People's Republic of Morningside.

What we have here is basically a level playing field with 15 Conservative-Labour marginals and 14 Labour-Conservative marginals at stake. LibDems would be of help though with an additional four Tory-held seats squarely within their reach. Then if current polling is any indication and Labour do have the strongest momentum (pun not intended at first but fine with me anyway) then they're the ones likely to make further inroads into Tory territory whatever LibDems manage to achieve. Only time will tell 🔊.

One Step Closer 🔊

The alternate scenarios after reallocating marginals to the runner-up remain very favourable to Labour. Worst case scenario for them would be a stalemate when it was a 'back to 2015' Tory victory not so long ago.The hypothetical Lab-SDLP-Lib coalition would remain a viable option on 308 seats, ahead of the alternate Tory-DUP coalition on only 285. Jeremy Corbyn could probably also count on some of the smaller parties helping pass his Queen's Speech only to make absolutely sure they would keep the Tories out. SNP's neutrality would be enough for Corbyn to bag a majority of votes cast, which would in fact be only a plurality of sitting MPs. And of course the SNP would still retain enough leverage for some 'constructive exchanges' with PM Corbyn even with Conservatives managing to unexpectedly hold a handful more of their current Scottish seats.

Of course Labour have to wish for the best case scenario that current polling predicts. With Labour plus SDLP bagging 311 seats overall PM Corbyn would be a better position to negotiate a good deal with the LibDems and secure a 40-seat majority. And possibly avoid having to deal with the Pesky Jock's demands even with a substantially strengthened SNP coming close to their record number of seats. Unless of course yesterday's events in Holyrood signal the opening of a whole new chapter in Scottish politics which even the most pig-headed Unionist can't ignore.

Nothing To Lose 🔊

Now Our Fearless Leader has unveiled Her Long Term Plan for The Great Leap Forward. As I see it she always had fewer options than The National described. Either kick the can down the timeline again until the end of the current Brextension, while desperately hoping Donald Tusk would not be so gullible again as to put pressure on EU governments for yet another Brextension into 2020. Which would basically defeat the whole purpose of the triple-lock mandate on Independence as by then the clock would be ticking ahead of the next Holyrood election. Or don't submit to existing circumstances and take a bold step to change circumstances substantially enough, using the loopholes in the Scotland Act 1998 to argue that a Section 30 Order is not the only legally sustainable path to Independence. Which were uncoincidentally the two most likely (or least unlikely) options in The National's list. And now how it happened:

I trust you will believe me when I tell you I actually wrote the above paragraph before the First Minster's address and without the slightest clue what she might actually say. Anyway I have already shared my thoughts on The When and The How of Independence, so I just hope I won't contradict myself now. Though it is a risk I'm willing to take in the light of the proverbial 'changed circumstances'. Let's just say I was pleasantly surprised to hear the First Minister distance herself from the traditional 'Section 30 or bust' approach and support it with harsher words than ever aimed at the English Government. Loved the parts about the 'toxic combination of dishonesty and incompetence' and 'not squandering valuable time in a stand-off with a UK government that may soon be out of office'. No wonder Tories hated it but David Lidington mantraing 'now is not the time' is certainly not the most appropriate answer when the First Minister extends a hand to opposition parties to come up with their best ideas for Scotland's future.

Then the new proposals (Scottish Parliament passing framework primary legislation before the end of the year and the Citizens' Assembly) are quite the gamechangers. This is not yet 100% the bold step I envisioned earlier but is certainly as far as the First Minister will go and we did not expect her to shout 'UDI' right away, or did we? Nobody can seriously argue that the framework legislation requires a Section 30 Order though the Tories will try (and fail in any Court) and the First Minister was right (and canny, though not necessarily the way The National sees it) to include an explicit reference to the Claim of Right in her address, in addition to subtle hints that Section 30 can be bypassed though we're not quite there just yet, as this is the strongest foundation of Scotland's inalienable right to decide our own future.

The establishment of a Citizen's Assembly is a also a smart move, and Adam Tomkins' claim that 'we already have one and it is the Scottish Parliament' sounds like the elitist pish it is. Tomkins will surely have to explain why he fears giving the real people a voice so much. Could it be that he doesn't want to hear that 10% of Scottish Tory voters would choose Independence over staying in a post-Brexit UK as one recent poll showed? Richard Leonard and Willie Rennie are in for a stunning discovery too by the way, as the same poll found that half or more of their respective voters would choose Independence over post-Brexitocalypse UK. And many other 'inconvenient' truths will also undoubtedly surface. Some inconvenient ones even for the SNP, I imagine, but once you set this in motion you can't complain about what it delivers.

Just last week it looked like nobody would derail from the usual well-rehearsed talking points. But, after yesterday, who knows what tomorrow may bring? 🔊

So expect more upsets and twists and turns shortly and just stay tuned.

Soon these burning miseries will be extinct
I shall ascend my funeral pyre triumphantly

© John Wetton, Edwin Jobson 1978

RIP John Wetton (1949-2017)

European Parliament Election - A Gamechanger?

Easter 🔊 Sunday also 2772th Anniversary of the Foundation of Rome, or so the story goes, and quite definitely James McAvoy's birthday

The Road So Far 🔊

Elections for the European Parliament are to be held in the UK on 23 May 2019 for the last time 🔊. Or not. Holding them is part of the UK's commitments in the latest Brextension deal but they could be cancelled at the last moment, if Commons miraculously pass Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement they have already rejected thrice. It would have to happen before 22 May anyway, which not coincidentally was the backstop deadline in the Brexit 2.0 arrangement. Otherwise the vote goes on come what May wants or doesn't.

Let's just see first who the current UK MEPs are. Which, believe it or not, is not the same as they were after the last election in 2014. And it changed again a few days ago when two former Tory MEPs switched to Change UK. Guess they wanted to play it safe and waited to be sure the TigChukers were actually registered as a real party by the Electoral Commission. The 73 MEPs are grouped by national party and by European Parliament group (which are somewhat different from, though mostly overlapping with, European parties but never mind as we're bordering on nerdy TMI here). Unlabelled denotes just one MEP to avoid cluttering the graph. One UK seat is currently vacant (formerly a Labour seat in Scotland held by Catherine Stihler).

I have tracked the changes in a 'where they were and where they are now' chart. Hope it's not too confusing. Same colour code as above and again unlabelled means one MEP in category. Note that the left-wing parties and the Northern Ireland representation have not changed either their national party or their parliamentary group affiliations. Only UKIP and the Conservatives have gone through some kind of more or less intense musical chairs.

And that's all the changes we'll see as the 2018-2019 season has come to an end. Right now MEPs no longer have the opportunity to carry on with the noise and confusion 🔊 as the European Parliament is in recess and will not reconvene until 2 July with the new intake of MEPs.

Can EU election polls be trusted?

British pollsters have become quite of a laughing stock since they failed so dismally to predict the results of the 2016 EU referendum and the 2017 snap GE. Whatever the changes in their methodologies, there is still an ominous cloud of distrust hanging over their heads. But their performance back in 2014 was not that bad. I managed to retrieve six EU election polls from the pollsters' sites, all ten days or less away from the election. There were other polls fielded in that timeframe but they seem to have been woodchiporized into some cyber-bin since. Anyway here's what the six polls I have and their weighted average said, and it's not really far from the actual GB-wide results (Northern Ireland was not polled back then just as it is not right now).

Scottish polls on the other hand are a different kind of a strange beast. Contrary to popular belief they did not miss the Independence Referendum by much, with the trend over the last week being a steady 47-53 No victory despite a handful of outliers predicting a Yes victory. They weren't that bad either at the 2015 GE but that was the easy one when the only doubt was about SNP bagging 'only' 54 seats or going all the way to 59. Then they totally fucked up the 2016 Holyrood election, the 2017 Council elections and the 2017 snap GE, all the time wildly overestimating the SNP vote and the 2014 EU election was no exception. Below are the results of seven Scotland-only polls fielded back then and the weighted average of the last two fielded just before the election.

If these polls had been right the result would have been three SNP MEPs, two Labour and one Conservative with SNP snatching the sixth seat from UKIP by quite a wide margin. Marco Biagi (formerly the SNP MSP for Edinburgh Central) recently published a witty and informative article about the forthcoming EU election, warning everyone to 'be more wary of polls than normal'. And of course he is totally right and we should bear this in mind when assessing current polling.

So then what do current polls say?

Before you ask (again) all the polls I use are listed here with links to the source data on the pollsters' sites that include regional crosstabs. Nine polls have been fielded so far, starting in January when holding EU elections was nothing more than a fantasy scenario and until this week with three polls in close succession. There is little to no consistency in these polls and nothing so far looking like a reliable trend. The press will of course be looking for a winner in a context that could eventually deliver only losers. Only sure thing is that the Conservatives will not be the winners as their choice of options has narrowed down to walloping and clobbering, until voters go one step further and hand them a quartering. So here is what all these polls say:

Saying that there is some fluidity in EU election polling would be quite an understatement as volatility might indeed be the word we're looking for. So I have restricted my EU Poll'O'Polls to just the three most recent ones, all fielded less than a week ago. But even polls fielded literally on the same day show quite interesting discrepancies so the usual caveats strongly apply, and then to the power of 73. So here is the current weighted average of voting intentions, supposed to be as faithful a snapshot of public opinion as pollsterly possible. Followed by its breakdown by electoral regions, based on what regional crosstabs pollsters see fit to provide. Northern Ireland is excluded here as they have not been polled so far.

These numbers clearly demonstrate that nobody has any reason to feel safe in the current political climate. UKIP would be irrevocably replaced by the Brexit Party as the Poster Boys for the New Model Blackshirts. Though voters choosing borderline-batshit-crazy over terminally-batshit-crazy is not a sign of sanity from any perspective. Conservatives are predicted to take a massive bashing especially in the traditional Southern Little England heartlands. And it can only get worse as more and more Tory grassrooters refuse to campaign in the name of 'Brexit betrayal'. Labour have no reason to be feasting either as EU polls show the same symptoms as GE polls: Labour looking goodish only because Conservatives are nosediving into a crashlanding. Even their results in the Northern Powerhouse heartlands and in London are alarming, notwithstanding an unexpected resilience in the North East.

What kind of representation would this deliver?

The current 73 MEPs are elected via proportional representation (the famous/infamous d'Hondt method) in twelve electoral regions that overlap the European Union's NUTS-1 regions. These have been designed by the EU for statistical purposes only, not electoral ones, which explains why the number of MEPs per region varies wildly from three to ten. There is in fact no strong and convincing rationale for the UK using NUTS-1s as electoral regions. France also used regional constituencies three times for EU elections before reverting to a single national list, but their constituencies did not overlap their NUTS-1s in any way.

But enough useless trivia for now. Here is the projected representation of the UK on the evening of 23 May, or more probably the wee hours of 24 May, based on the aggregation of seat projections by region. There is an example of how d'Hondt works just below in my Scotland section and it works the same way for all regions, you just have to adjust the number of seats. I have included Northern Ireland here hypothesizing their representation would be the same as in 2014. Best that can be done without any available polls, and the only reasonably expectable change would be one seat switching from UUP to DUP, and this would have no impact on the overall picture.

The seat projections show that Labour are indeed in a dangerous position even if they're on their way to gain a couple of seats. They certainly walk on thin ice in London where some of the most dedicated Remain voters would switch to Change UK on top of those who have already switched to the LibDems. And their smallish gains in the North definitely have more to do with Conservatives crashlanding than Labour conclusively winning back C2DE Leave voters. Ambiguity never wins. 

And what about Scotland then?

Scottish polling so far is just as inconsistent and puzzling as the GB-wide results. Furthermore we don't have real Scotland-only polls now as we had in 2014 but only subsamples from the GB-wide polls, which adds another level of uncertainty and calls for extra caution. With these caveats duly registered, the SNP is doing significantly better than their 2014 result and this is supported by other non-EU polls so we can accept the trend as valid, even if the precise numbers have to be subjected to reasonable questioning. Here is what we have now from all nine available EU polls and the weighted average of the last three.

To make it clearer here is the current weighted average of voting intentions we have for Scotland. Not outlandishly good for the SNP as some earlier polls were, but still some 10% above the 2014 vote. Unionist parties are not doing that well and most probably below their most pessimistic expectations. Greens and Brexit Party breathing down the neck of the Ruth Davidson Party should ring an alarm bell if only they ever listened to the people. Which they don't. And won't. And then will come whining about the walloping they took.

The volatility of polls is reflected in the seat projections (more on how the sausage is made right after this). Let's just say it's safe to conclude that the SNP can (and will) bag three seats (Alyn Smith, Margaret Ferrier and Christian Allard if the conference votes the way I would) while the other three would be kind of marginals if you can picture such a thing under PR. Labour probably have a head start and should bag one unless some kind of upset happens, while the remaining two could be decided by just a few votes between Greens, Conservatives and the Brexit Party. So SNP brace yourselves for gaining only one seat 😅😇🐶. But don't give up on the fourth just yet.

With only six seats at stake Scotland really pushes the highest averages method to its limits. Remember first that 'average' here does not mean 'average' as in [ Votes / Seats ] but 'what if average' as in [Votes / Seats+1 ]. What we're trying to do here is not statistics about the actual distribution of seats but allocating the next seat in a way that represents voters' choices best. This can be done only by simulating how many voters would be represented if all parties were allocated an extra seat and then giving it to the party with the highest calculated average of votes per seat. Just watch what we have on current weighted average and hypothetical turnout same as 2014. Of course it works just the same whatever the number of votes cast, as only the vote shares actually matter. On Round 1 all parties are allocated one virtual seat, then on Round 2 the winner of Round 1 gets two virtuals and all others one again, and so on…. Simples.

Also bear in mind that d'Hondt (and for that matter any PR method whatever the way they allocate seats) sets a de facto threshold for representation that is closely linked to the number of seats but also to the distribution of the popular vote. Highest averages method is known for (and indeed designed to) favouring larger parties while the concurrent largest remainders method favours smaller parties. Marco Biagi rightly points out in his article that the SNP missed a third seat (the controversial one that went to UKIP only because of anti-SNP tactical voting) in 2014 only by some 30k votes or 2% of all votes cast. If the SNP had had these extra votes, hypothetically from actual non-voters, they would have bagged 50% of the seats on 31% of the vote, clearly a counter-intuitive result and closer to FPTP than to what you would expect from PR.

We have a pretty similar situation on current polling. Only the SNP and the three next contenders (Labour, Conservatives, Greens right now with Brexit Party also a contender in an earlier poll) would clear the de facto threshold which is about 10-11% for Scotland on six seats. So if you recalculate vote shares for the four finalists only on a 100% basis, what you get right now is 51% for the SNP and about 15-18% each for the other three, simply because non-SNP vote is highly fragmented on current polling. Put it another way and what you get is roughly a 3-1-1-1 distribution, precisely what the seat projection says, and that makes d'Hondt truly proportional eventually no matter how it looks like at first glance. QED.

But what if Scottish polls are totally off again?

Just rewind to the part about 'can polls be trusted?' and look again at the numbers for Scotland. So in 2014 pollsters overestimated the SNP by almost 8% and underestimated Tories by about 4%. All other parties except Labour were underestimated too but in all cases the error was within the usual margin of such polls. Which does not mean it would not have mattered in a close election. So here you have a reminder of what current Scottish polling says and what it would be if the polls were off the same way they were in 2014:

This might look like not much of a big deal at first glance. After all the SNP would still be comfortably ahead of all other parties and up from 2014. But just remember d'Hondt's de facto threshold is 10.5% in Scotland and look at the Brexit Party's corrected vote share. The recalculated allocations of seats says it all: SNP 2, Conservatives 1, Labour 1, Greens 1, Brexit 1. And the SNP would lose the sixth seat by barely 2k votes or 0.1% of votes cast. Quite frightening, isn't it?

What this tells us is not just that we should take all polls with a muckle smitch of salt, much more importantly this tells us strong campaigning and a massive GOTV drive are of the essence for this election even more than for previous ones. Bear in mind that this time Scotland is ONE constituency, not 59 or 73, so all votes have the exact same weight no matter where they're cast. The SNP definitely needs all these votes to be cast. And above all the SNP should not take anything for granted, especially not the people's votes. Not now. Not ever.

And now what comes next?

As usual what happens next is anybody's guess and yours is as good as mine. The only thing I'm certain of is that EU elections are not predictors of what might happen at the next GE as results over the last twenty years show. Past elections show that EU elections are the perfect outlet for venting frustrations and casting a protest vote, whatever the protest is actually about. And don't think it's just a UK thing, it works pretty much the same way all over the EU. Quite simply because most people don't have the slightest clue about what the European Parliament does and the EU election results don't change the national balance of power in any way.

Which does not mean we should all abide by common popular wisdom especially when it is plainly and demonstrably wrong. Even the strongest believer in democracy must admit it: yes the people can be wrong especially when the people's vote turns into mob's vote. Which has been a constant factor in past EU elections and goes a long way explaining why far-right and narrow-brained nationalism are so heavily represented in the European Parliament.

But closer to home our main concern should probably be that the likely result of next month's EU election will project the worst possible image of the UK in the current context. Just look at who the two most likely front-runners are. Labour who haven't yet sorted out what species of Brexit, not-totally-Brexit or almost-Brexit-but-not-quite they actually support and are ready to send Remainer MEPs to Strasbourg/Brussels while still fantasizing about some incarnation of 'progressive Brexit' in London. And Brexit Party who's only clear goal is to get elected to destroy the institution from the inside while still cashing in lofty expenses.

Once again Scotland will have to set the tone. I obviously wish for us returning four SNP MEPs but three SNP and one Green would be the second best option and I could live with that. As long as the message is clear: a majority of pro-Independence MEPs and a strong commitment to having Scotland's voice heard loud and clear both in the UK and abroad. We can do it so let's do this. A month left to win. Fingers crossed.

We have helped to write European history and Europe has helped write ours (David Cameron)

© Jean-Jacques Burnel, 1979

Westminster Projection - 13 April 2019 Update

Would have been Brexit 2.0 B+1 but now Hallowexit B-201 and John Swinney's birthday
Also 100th Anniversary of the Jallianwala Bagh massacre 

Getting Tighter 🔊 

Recent polls have been definitely unkind to the Conservative Party. Even usually Tory-leaning YouGov find the Conservatives only 1% ahead while they had them leading by 11% six weeks ago. The current Tory nosedive started about a month ago but has become clearly visible during the period Commons kept voting and voting on alternative Brexits in some newish dog-chasing-tail configuration. Something is happening but you don't know what it is, do you Ms May? 🔊. Only problem is that Labour are not decisively winning yet, Conservatives are just losing slow.

Trends definitely show we are light years away from the Blairite surge in 1997 that saw Tory voters massively switch to New Labour. We're not even close to the 2017 Corbyn surge as Labour have actually lost votes in the meantime and look goodish only because Tories have lost even more especially over the last few weeks. What polls show now is that the electorate is roughly divided into three thirds of unequal size, which are actually four quarters of equally unequal size: one for Labour, one for Conservatives, one for all other parties combined and one for abstention. Not really a sign of much public interest in the political powerplay, more like a sign of global dissatisfaction.

Another series of polls include The Independent Group (or Change UK or whatever already used name they plagiarized this week) and go pretty much in the same direction: Conservatives definitely down and Labour more or less recovering from previous self-inflicted wounds. I will not yet venture to try and predict how many seats TIG could possibly win. They need to properly register first, which is not a done deal even if they claim it is, and then we need to know how many candidates they would actually field and where.

Until further information is available I stick to my initial assessment of TIG's future: SDPish with a flamboyant start and a dismal crash landing at the next GE. In fact the only way they might have to prove themselves real players in the election game would be a good showing at the 23 May European Parliament election. EU election polls credit them with 4-7% of the vote which might be enough to bag a couple of MEPs. But that's another story and I will explore that one later.

Better Decide Which Side You're On 🔊 

My current Poll'O'Polls includes the last six ones fielded between 28 March and 8 April. Super-sample size is 9,475 with a theoretical 0.98% margin of error. And of course the weighted average reflects the recent trends with Labour leading by 2.4%, a mirror image of the 2017 GE when Conservatives led by 2.4% UK-wide and 2.5% in GB. But 20-25% of people polled still are undecided or potential abstainers so public opinion can't be said to have conclusively chosen a side yet.

A few polls now include Nigel Farage's Brexit Party and their vote share here is possibly underestimated. Polls who include them credit them with 4-6%. This would still be far below what's needed to gain even a single Westminster seat but would see them switch a sizeable share of voters previously intending to support UKIP. The disturbing part is that the combined votes of the New Model Blackshirts could reach the same level as UKIP before the EU referendum. And that one is squarely on the Conservatives, thanks to their combination of anti-EU rhetoric and hostile environment policy.

Up Against The Wall 🔊 

On these numbers we would have the extremely awkward situation of a hung Parliament with neither of the two major parties anywhere near a workable majority. This time I also (reluctantly) factored in the one Northern Ireland poll we have in store. Projects DUP 9 seats, Sinn Féin 5, UUP 2, SDLP 1 and Sylvia Hermon 1. DUP would lose one to UUP (South Antrim). Sinn Féin would lose one to UUP (Fermanagh and South Tyrone) and one to SDLP (Foyle). Not sure it's totally reliable but it's the only one we have.

We have seen this kind of situation before when there were smallishy and shortishy Labour surges but it usually did not last. But current polling suggests we might be seeing just the beginning of a true reversal of fortunes. One recent poll even has Labour 9% ahead which would be just some thousands of votes away from granting them an outright majority. Future polls will show if the Conservative nosedive is here to stay but Labour's obvious weakness is that what we have now is much more of an anti-Tory protest vote than a strong agreement with Labour's proposals, especially as their stand on Brexit is as muddy as ever.

What polls project now would be the end for the Conservatives as even a Tory-DUP coalition would bag fewer seats than Labour. But it would be quite awkward for Labour too and kind of 1910ish. At the time H.H. Asquith sought and gained support from the Irish Parliamentary Party and a nascent Labour to pass his People's Budget and House of Lords' reform. But of course the Liberals back then were fully committed to delivering Irish Home Rule and support from IPP was kind of a given. PM Corbyn would face a trickier situation now. A Labour-SDLP-LibDem minority coalition would bag only 309 seats and even extending it to Plaid Cymru and the Greens would take it to only 316, still 7 seats shy of a majority.

With the SNP in a much stronger position after gaining 10 seats and woodchipping Scottish Labour, PM Corbyn would have to make the most difficult and most controversial decision of his career: trade SNP support to his Queen's Speech for a Section 30 Order. His only other option would be Groundhog 1974 in the hope the snap GE would take him past the majority line. Good luck with that as it might backfire and turn out to be a Groundhog 1910 with the second GE of the year delivering the same results as the first. And while the second 1910 GE was a victory for Asquith, a repeat hung Parliament would be a blow for Corbyn and wipe out all options but one: Section 30 Order in return for SNP's confidence and supply. Even if that means unleashing a shitestorm that would make the 1912 Home Rule Crisis look like a walk up Calton Hill on a taps-aff day.

Bully For You 🔊 

On current polling a massive 66 seats would change hands. In less complex times this would have been more than enough to deliver a clear change of majority provided the Loyal Opposition would have been in a position to snatch that many seats from the Government. The current situation is quite different with gains and losses spread all across the spectrum.

With fifty of their MPs going down, even the Tory frontbenches would be hit hard and provide Corbyn's office walls with a new collection of stuffed-head trophies. Which comes as no surprise at a time when half of Conservative MPs are on the government payroll. Bear in mind that current law allows 109 paid government positions (83 Ministers of any rank, the Chancellor, 3 Law Officers, 22 paid Whips). Up to 12 unpaid junior Ministers on top of this, as allowed by law, and an unlimited number of unpaid Whips and Parliamentary Private Secretaries (basically bag-carriers for a senior Minister and expected to rat on their colleagues). For some reason the full list of PPSs is a closely guarded State Secret but last time the Conservative Party themselves published one it had 45 names on it, and there is every reason to believe the current headcount is roughly the same.

Here Tories would lose one Secretary of State (Rudd), three Ministers of State (Lancaster, Sharma and Goodwill), seven Under-Secretaries, three PPSs and three Whips. On top of this eight former Government members who resigned over various Brexit-related issues would also lose their seats. Hardest hit would be DWP losing its Secretary of State (Rudd), the Minister of State for Universal Credit (Sharma) and Rudd's bag-carrier/rat (Scotland's very own Colin Clark). In contrast Labour would only lose their Shadow Scottish Office (Sweeney and Laird) which would not make much of a difference as they failed to demonstrate any usefulness anyway.

Don't Take No For An Answer 🔊 

Right now we would have 57 marginal seats, significantly fewer than after the 2017 GE that delivered 79. This would include only 16 of the seats projected to change hands, with 10 of these in England, meaning the swing in popular vote would be strong enough to put most switching seats out of the immediate Danger Zone.

This does not mean the battleground would have shrunk as it would in fact have grown slightly bigger with another 100 seats falling into the 'Lean' category, for a total of 157 competitive seats compared to 146 in 2017. With 134 fewer safe seats the next GE now has the potential to be more competitive overall, and obviously more hard-fought, than the previous one.

I'm All Right Jack 🔊 

Reallocating the marginals to the runner-up confirms that this batch of poll opens new and fresh perspectives for Labour. On a good day and with an additional 2% swing in their direction, they would bag 298 seats and the potential Lab-Lib coalition would have a three-seat majority on 324 seats. A fairly close result that would probably have Labour again claiming that Scotland is the key to the election, as even their best possible result would be a meagre two seats North Of The Wall. Of course they would conveniently forget that the SNP's main achievement in the 'Con Min' scenario would be almost wiping out Scottish Tories and leaving them with just five seats. So 'Vote SNP Get Tories' does not really apply here, no more than it did in the past.

But a similar swing in the opposite direction (2% towards Tories) would see Labour gaining just one seat from their 2017 intake, while the Conservatives would still have a shot at a makeshift minority coalition. So as the saying goes it definitely looks like the election Conservatives can't win but Labour can still lose.

Suits Me Suits You 🔊 

The snap GE has now become everybody's favourite way out of the current Westminster clusterfuck. And one where Labour should be more than willing to help as they take the optimistic view of public opinion's state of mind. Question not being 'will snap GE happen?' but 'when at last?'. But getting there might be harder than some think. Bear in mind the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 requires 434 votes for Commons to dissolve themselves. It doesn't say that in as many words but the provision in Section 2, Subsection 1b reads 'if the number of members who vote in favour is equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House including vacant seats'. So it doesn't matter how many MPs would coincidentally be holidaying on D-Day to avoid casting a vote because they're still part of the total number of seats.

So the requirement is a solid two thirds of 650 no matter what, you get it: 434. And in this case abstaining is pretty much the same as voting against as only Aye votes count. Section 2, Subsection 1b of the Act was invoked only once to trigger the 2017 snap GE. Back then it passed 512-13 with 105 abstaining, most notably 48 Labour rebels and the SNP. It might not go down that easily this year with already 170 Tory hardliners pledged to vote against holding European Parliament elections, which are more than likely to happen anyway, because the Conservatives might face a heavy defeat. These 170 would probably also oppose a snap GE for the same reasons. Remember that only 635 votes can be cast in divisions (650 minus Sinn Féin, Speaker, Deputy Speakers and Tellers) so 170 against a dissolution would make it a tight vote with 32 abstentions enough to defeat the motion.

May's other choice then might be a self-inflicted vote of no confidence that would require only 318 votes to pass. The DUP could choose to pull the plug and May might go down by just one vote, allowing Dennis Skinner and Kenneth Clarke to share memories of the day James Callaghan went down the same way. Or ToryMax Rebels could turn against her in the name of ideological purity and she goes down by anything between eleven and twenty-seven votes. Then Labour might find it more convenient to avoid a close no confidence vote and instead mercilessly whip their MPs into supporting dissolution. Which would suit everybody: Corbyn would get his long awaited snap GE and May would go without the humiliation of being ousted by her own MPs or having to suffer through a long hot summer 🔊 of backbench rebellions and frontbench resignations. Ball's in their courts, definitely.

Let My People Be 🔊 

How long will it take? How long can we wait? Amidst all the Brexit chaos and speculation about either a snap GE or EU Parliament elections happening by accident, the when-and-how of Scottish Independence remains the elephant in the room and is indeed growing huger by the day. It has been established already that the Prime Minister of England demanded 'aggressive whipping' against Nick Boles' 'Common Market 2.0' motion because passing it would have strengthened the case for Scottish Independence. And nobody will believe the elephant walked out of the room when Corbyn and May discussed their failed Common Brexit Plan. So what next?

A lively conversation on Twitter was triggered by an article in The National showing some impatience from their readers at the SNP's perceived lack of action. Replies covered the whole spectrum from 'Patience' and 'Nicola knows what she is doing' to 'Too late' and 'Nicola must go'. Even factoring out the most extreme reactions cannot hide the fact that Yes-leaning people are expecting something solid and want it to happen soon, lest Nicola Sturgeon appears to be kicking the can down the timeline pretty much the same way Theresa May does with Brexit. Something definitely has to happen at the SNP conference next month. Activists can't wait for Brexit 3.0 before things get moving. Hallowexit is bad enough already, Hallowindy would be a fucking disaster.

I think the Leith Walk by-election on Thursday was sort of the sign of the times. You might want to downplay its significance as only 30% of the electorate saw fit to turn ou. But first preferences for pro-Independence parties rose from 54% to 62% in an iconic part of the National Capital, a city that voted 61% No overall at the first IndyRef. I try not to read too much into this but every positive sign, however smallishy, is good news anyway. And one that should be food for thought for Nicola Sturgeon when she makes her big announcement ahead of next month's SNP conference.

If there is no strong and decisive initiative at the conference, the SNP might well face a self-inflicted Spring Of Discontent that would jeopardize the party's electoral prospects. Obviously turning against the SNP now in the name of some make-it-up-off-your-ass-as-you-go ideological purity would be indefensible and irresponsible. But a true grassroot revolt would be a different beast altogether. Some 25k votes at the next Holyrood election will make the difference between a continued pro-Independence majority and an Unionist one. Whatever anyone's issues with the SNP procrastinating, and I do have some of my own, keeping the triple-lock mandate on seeking Independence is a must. Everything that needs sorting out will be sorted out in due course. After Independence.

Looks like things are gonna get more interesting now so stay tuned for further updates.

Let them cant about decorum who have characters to lose

© Tom Robinson, Mark Ambler 1977