Would have been Brexit 1.0 B+27 or Brexit 2.0 B+13 now Hallowexit B-189
Also 45th Anniversary of the Portuguese Carnation Revolution
and the Johnston Brothers' birthday
Edited 26 April to include results from just published Scottish poll from Survation
Battle Lines 🔊
With the Westminster powerplay resuming after the Bunny Recess, predictable headlines soon to be: 'Labour still refuses to back Withdrawal Agreement' and '1922 Committee urges May to quit while 17 Tory MPs line up for a leadership contest'. Bottom line: the Conservatives are up Shite Creek without a paddle and pissing upwind. Not that Labour are in a really better shape. They too have shown real expertise in upwind pissing contests, and while they might have the paddle I'm not totally sure they have the canoe. So let's just see what polls had to say over the last month, which is baddish for Labour and worstest for Conservatives as both plunge to around or below 30%.
The last ORB poll for the Telegraph also had full crosstabs across all twelve nations and regions that shed an interesting light on what's happening. Bear in mind that Labour in 2017 bagged a majority of the popular vote in the two Northern regions and London and a strong plurality in Wales and Yorkshire-Humber. While the Conservatives bagged a majority in the three Southern regions and East Midlands, and came close to it in West Midlands. And look at what have now with all these majorities and near-majorities blown to shreds by massive hard-right votes and in a few cases an emerging Change UK on top of LibDems holding their ground.
It is worth noting that, unlike the two main English parties, support for the SNP has increased in both EU election and GE polls. While Nicola Sturgeon's net approval is the highest of all major party leaders even among English voters, and the SNP do better in Council by-elections than any other party. England is succumbing to the deceiving appeal of parochial single-issue parties but Scotland remains faithful to an open-minded and progressive approach. Not that I expect Unionists to sit back, watch and learn even when their claims of SNP being 'out of touch' are proved wrong day after day.
The Die Is Cast 🔊
My current Poll'O'Polls delivers a disturbingly unappealing picture of public opinion's current state of mind. Super-sample is based on the six most recently published polls, fielded between 10 and 21 April, with 10,157 respondents overall and a theoretical 0.94% margin of error. Major lesson here is the combined forces of the New Model Blackshirts surging to a level unseen since 2015. And the weighted average probably underestimates the Brexit Party if the most recent polls are any indication. Also bear in mind that a 5% Labour lead is still far short from what they need for an outright majority under current boundaries and voting patterns, as a double-digit lead would be necessary.
Combined support for the two traditional major parties has sunk to its lowest in living memory, and the two most recent polls have it even lower than my weighted average, at an unheard of 55-56%. I have already stated that I think EU elections are not a predictor of what would happen at the next GE. EU elections tends to maximize the 'protest vote' factor while GEs tend to see people rallying around parties they see fit to govern. But you can't escape noticing the disturbing similarity between 2014 EU election vs 2015 GE on one side, and current EU polling vs current GE polling on the other. If we actually see the same GE pattern repeated with one extremist party bagging 10-15% of the vote or above, and no seats, this will lead to renewed claims that the Westminster System is past its shelf date and that changes to the electoral law are a priority. Only problem here of course being that Alternative Voting has already been defeated and nobody proposes to put it to a popular vote again. And nobody so far has laid out a credible plan for electoral reform. Such a plan would imply replacing FPTP with a different system that would be both more representative of the popular vote and able to deliver a workable government majority. Good luck with that unless we go for a true Mixed Member System such as I advocated for Scotland aeons ago.
One of my Twitter mates correctly pointed out you don't get support for radical change on such tiny voting intentions. Of course we know that Tories' post-Brexit radical change would be turning the UK into one huge tax haven while clampdowning 🔊 on everything with the word 'rights' in it, be it human, workers', women's or LGBT 🔊. So we're better off with them being unable to implement it. Then you might ask what Labour's vision of radical change is now. I don't think unmitigated support for increasing defence spending and renewing Trident counts here. Neither does the fuzzy commitment to some sort of unidentified 'progressive Brexit' when they are unable to agree on any specific definition anyway. Guess then all that we have is Labour stealing the SNP's flagship policies when they realize they work and are popular. While at same time wanting to hold the SNP accountable for the effects of failed Tory policies that had Labour support in Commons by explicit vote or abstention, or events that happened before devolution. Don't look for consistency or a firm and credible direction on their side either. And their Scottish Branch Office Manager might want to look up 'reserved' and 'devolved' to avoid having his ass handed to him on a silver platter weekly at FMQs.
As Long As You Want Me Here 🔊
Current polling would again deliver a hung Parliament where nobody would be a real winner though LibDems and the SNP would again increase their representation and be handed the opportunity to be the kingmakers. This configuration would again be the awkward one where an anti-Tory majority can easily be assembled but a Labour-supporting one is much trickier. PM Corbyn could obviously try a Lab-SDLP-Lib formal coalition resulting in a minority government just one seat shy of a majority. Or even an extended quasi-coalition with Greens and Plaid Cymru that would have a fourteen-seat majority. But both would obviously have a price, probably Corbyn's commitment to a true second EU referendum as the original terms of People's Vote (Yes or No to a Brexit deal) are obviously irrelevant now. Undoubtedly this would cause major turmoil among Labour backbenchers still committed to 'respecting the will of the people' no matter how out of touch it is with the altered state of mind of public opinion.
Incidentally Labour have a strong reason to wish for a snap GE besides favourable polling. There would be no time to even table the infamous 600-seat Great Gerrymander if a snap GE happens sometime this year. But a Tory government on life support would have a powerful incentive and plenty of time to pass it before a 2022 GE. Which would make matters much worse for Labour who would still be the first party, but would lose thirty-one seats while Conservatives would lose only eight. Which fits the pattern described long ago by Electoral Calculus' Martin Baxter.
Right now the main obstacle on Corbyn's road to Number Ten might not be any controversial choice of coalition partners but the fact that people still don't see him a truly PMable. Notwithstanding 'None Of The Above' still being the preferred PM pretty much like 'Any But The Above' is the preferred party, May still leads by some 10%. Even with Theresa May's popularity reaching an all time low with her own party, Corbyn still has a lot to prove. Showing decisive leadership might be a start.
Corbyn has a golden opportunity to show that kind of leadership: serious talks with the devil 🔊 aka the SNP. Looks like Nicola Sturgeon's speech yesterday (teaser, more on this later) has opened quite a few new doors. If Corbyn is ready for any serious discussion on a confidence and supply deal, agreement should be easily reached on symbolic issues like a UK-wide ban on fracking, abolition of the House of Lords and some form of electoral reform, which would be only the entrées. When it comes to the main course Sturgeon would most certainly have leverage for more substantial concessions from Corbyn.
What should be on the table after a snap GE that would see Labour performing only mediocrely is not a Section 30 Order, which Sturgeon implied is no longer the one and only goal, but full devolution of constitutional powers following primary legislation being passed by Scottish Parliament during its current term. Quite a challenge but Corbyn must be driven to understand this is now the key to him becoming the next tenant at Number Ten. Besides PM Corbyn and Deputy PM Starmer (and aye, I'm making that up because naw, I don't have any insider information) might want to have a closer look at the numbers and let sink in what a Scotland-less Rump Commons would mean.
Just factor in that a theoretical 591-seat Scotland-less Commons means 585 actual seats with Sinn Féin still sitting out. With Labour losing just one wee Scottish seat, whose MP might very well have switched to Change UK by then, 294 means a three-seat majority and no need for further boring 1997ish talks with LibDems. So Scottish Independence serves Labour's parochial short-term interests. QED. And not to be brushed aside lightly, or should it? Simples.
The Smile Has Left Your Eyes 🔊
My assessment of current polling is that a massive 93 seats would change hands from their current holders, which means only 87 from the previous election as Change UK has added a new variable to the game (more on them later). As expected Tories would lose big including the frontbench and government payroll with one Secretary of State (aye richt, Cruella De Rudd), the Solicitor General for England and Wales, three Ministers of State, eight Junior Ministers, three Parliamentary Private Secretaries, four Whips and two Conservative Party Vice-Chairs losing their seats. Full casualty list here:
All would not be milk and honey to Corbyn's ears though (can't escape mixed metaphors) despite the new trophies hanging on his office walls. The balance of gains and losses show only a lacklustre Labour performance with many competitive Tory seats still not falling though they may be within reach. Unseating most of the ChUKers including the ex-Tory ones would be just a consolation prize though one that would undoubtedly make Corbyn's day. Sweet revenge 🔊. Neither would such results be a complete disaster for the Conservatives like 1997 and 2001 and Theresa May's successor would have a fair shot at surviving the day to lead the next fight. But of course media would most certainly make headlines out of the SNP's projected performance, clearing 50 for the first time since the last GE with 16 gains and no losses. Or wouldn't they?
I have now added the current eleven Change UK seats to my projection. It is still difficult to predict them by math only, so my projection is a mix of math and educated guess. Right now it says Umunna and Gapes would survive while eight of the other nine seats would go to Labour and one to the Conservatives. From the formerly Labour seats Penistone and Stockbridge (Angela Smith) was a marginal in 2017 and even a smallish Change UK vote would be enough to hand it to the Tories. From the three formerly Conservative seats Broxtowe (Anna Soubry) is the most exposed with Labour projected to gain it anyway in a 'standard' context. South Cambridgeshire (Heidi Allen) would now be a four-way marginal with Labour having a headstart over the LibDems to switch it. Finally Totnes (Sarah Wollaston) would be a three-way marginal with Change UK scraping away enough Tory votes to make it a Labour gain by a donkey's hair.
Caught In The Crossfire 🔊
Current polling would leave us with 51 technically marginal seats, which is actually not that much. But we would still have about 150 potentially competitive seats (Marginal and Lean ratings), pretty much the same as in 2017 or in earlier projections. With the battleground significantly shifting into Little England Tory territory, which is just what Labour need to both win the election and stop whining about the long lost Scottish seats, only one of which would still be possibly within their reach besides Ian Murray's People's Republic of Morningside.
What we have here is basically a level playing field with 15 Conservative-Labour marginals and 14 Labour-Conservative marginals at stake. LibDems would be of help though with an additional four Tory-held seats squarely within their reach. Then if current polling is any indication and Labour do have the strongest momentum (pun not intended at first but fine with me anyway) then they're the ones likely to make further inroads into Tory territory whatever LibDems manage to achieve. Only time will tell 🔊.
One Step Closer 🔊
The alternate scenarios after reallocating marginals to the runner-up remain very favourable to Labour. Worst case scenario for them would be a stalemate when it was a 'back to 2015' Tory victory not so long ago.The hypothetical Lab-SDLP-Lib coalition would remain a viable option on 308 seats, ahead of the alternate Tory-DUP coalition on only 285. Jeremy Corbyn could probably also count on some of the smaller parties helping pass his Queen's Speech only to make absolutely sure they would keep the Tories out. SNP's neutrality would be enough for Corbyn to bag a majority of votes cast, which would in fact be only a plurality of sitting MPs. And of course the SNP would still retain enough leverage for some 'constructive exchanges' with PM Corbyn even with Conservatives managing to unexpectedly hold a handful more of their current Scottish seats.
Of course Labour have to wish for the best case scenario that current polling predicts. With Labour plus SDLP bagging 311 seats overall PM Corbyn would be a better position to negotiate a good deal with the LibDems and secure a 40-seat majority. And possibly avoid having to deal with the Pesky Jock's demands even with a substantially strengthened SNP coming close to their record number of seats. Unless of course yesterday's events in Holyrood signal the opening of a whole new chapter in Scottish politics which even the most pig-headed Unionist can't ignore.
Nothing To Lose 🔊
Now Our Fearless Leader has unveiled Her Long Term Plan for The Great Leap Forward. As I see it she always had fewer options than The National described. Either kick the can down the timeline again until the end of the current Brextension, while desperately hoping Donald Tusk would not be so gullible again as to put pressure on EU governments for yet another Brextension into 2020. Which would basically defeat the whole purpose of the triple-lock mandate on Independence as by then the clock would be ticking ahead of the next Holyrood election. Or don't submit to existing circumstances and take a bold step to change circumstances substantially enough, using the loopholes in the Scotland Act 1998 to argue that a Section 30 Order is not the only legally sustainable path to Independence. Which were uncoincidentally the two most likely (or least unlikely) options in The National's list. And now how it happened:
I trust you will believe me when I tell you I actually wrote the above paragraph before the First Minster's address and without the slightest clue what she might actually say. Anyway I have already shared my thoughts on The When and The How of Independence, so I just hope I won't contradict myself now. Though it is a risk I'm willing to take in the light of the proverbial 'changed circumstances'. Let's just say I was pleasantly surprised to hear the First Minister distance herself from the traditional 'Section 30 or bust' approach and support it with harsher words than ever aimed at the English Government. Loved the parts about the 'toxic combination of dishonesty and incompetence' and 'not squandering valuable time in a stand-off with a UK government that may soon be out of office'. No wonder Tories hated it but David Lidington mantraing 'now is not the time' is certainly not the most appropriate answer when the First Minister extends a hand to opposition parties to come up with their best ideas for Scotland's future.
Then the new proposals (Scottish Parliament passing framework primary legislation before the end of the year and the Citizens' Assembly) are quite the gamechangers. This is not yet 100% the bold step I envisioned earlier but is certainly as far as the First Minister will go and we did not expect her to shout 'UDI' right away, or did we? Nobody can seriously argue that the framework legislation requires a Section 30 Order though the Tories will try (and fail in any Court) and the First Minister was right (and canny, though not necessarily the way The National sees it) to include an explicit reference to the Claim of Right in her address, in addition to subtle hints that Section 30 can be bypassed though we're not quite there just yet, as this is the strongest foundation of Scotland's inalienable right to decide our own future.
The establishment of a Citizen's Assembly is a also a smart move, and Adam Tomkins' claim that 'we already have one and it is the Scottish Parliament' sounds like the elitist pish it is. Tomkins will surely have to explain why he fears giving the real people a voice so much. Could it be that he doesn't want to hear that 10% of Scottish Tory voters would choose Independence over staying in a post-Brexit UK as one recent poll showed? Richard Leonard and Willie Rennie are in for a stunning discovery too by the way, as the same poll found that half or more of their respective voters would choose Independence over post-Brexitocalypse UK. And many other 'inconvenient' truths will also undoubtedly surface. Some inconvenient ones even for the SNP, I imagine, but once you set this in motion you can't complain about what it delivers.
Just last week it looked like nobody would derail from the usual well-rehearsed talking points. But, after yesterday, who knows what tomorrow may bring? 🔊
So expect more upsets and twists and turns shortly and just stay tuned.
Soon these burning miseries will be extinct
I shall ascend my funeral pyre triumphantly
© John Wetton, Edwin Jobson 1978
RIP John Wetton (1949-2017)
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