The Scottish Play - Act IV of MMXIX

© Dougie MacLean 1977

Scotland had not been comprehensively polled since the end of June. Now YouGov have just released the full data and crosstabs for their 'Scotland only' poll conducted between 30 August and 3 September. Sample size is 1,059 which is quite similar to regular UK-wide polls and enough to deliver a fairly accurate snapshot of where Scotland stands on the next General Election, the next Scottish Parliament election and Independence. The poll was conducted after Boris Johnson's prorogation of Commons, Ruth Davidson's resignation as leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party and the Shetland by-election. So we can assume the impact of all three is taken into account in the poll's results. To cut a long story short: massively good for the SNP in Westminster and Holyrood, moderately good for Scottish Independence.

Now are our brows bound with victorious wreaths
Our bruised arms hung up for monuments
Our stern alarums changed to merry meetings
Our dreadful marches to delightful measures

The Westminster Snapshot

YouGov's results about Westminster voting intentions are quite stunning with the SNP up 6% on their 2017 results and LibDems up 5% while Tories go down by 8% and Labour by a flabbergasting 12%. But of course this comes as no surprise if you have followed all previous episodes. YouGov's findings just confirm the trends seen recently in the Scottish subsamples of UK-wide polls and are even slightly less good for the SNP than some of the recent subsamples. Then we all know subsamples must always be used with the strongest caveats, especially when they deliver favourable results. So it's a good thing we now have a full real poll showing the SNP on their way to a 2015ish landslide.

On these voting intentions, the SNP would bag 51 seats, gaining back 17 seats lost in 2017 and predicted to lose just one, North East Fife, that was an extreme marginal two years ago. Though this is only what the math says and I would not take is for granted as Stephen Gethins has an excellent record, both as the SNP's spokesman for International Affairs and as a constituency MP who is well liked by his constituents. Bear in mind too that the LibDems' main talking point (We are the only anti-Brexit Party) would not work in Scotland overall and especially not against Stephen who has a consistent and impeccable Europhile background. So I rate his unseating as highly unlikely whatever the math says. Alternate scenarios factoring in the very few marginals left on such voting intentions (three now instead of twenty after the 2017 GE) confirm the SNP as the massive winner even in the worst case scenario with their range of seats being 50-53. If the Scottish Branch Office of the English Labour Party was a fully functional entity, such results would mean endgame for Richard Leonard but, being what they are and don't even get me started on what this 'what' is, they will probably keep him on life-support for some more months so that they can also pin the incoming Holyrood debacle (see below) on him and purge him out only then; 

On the current projection Scottish Labour would hold just one seat, Ian Murray's Edinburgh South, but with only a single-digit margin instead of the outright majority he bagged in 2017. And this probably only works as long as Tory voters massively vote tactically for him, which is no longer a done deal and if they won't the seat would easily switch to the SNP. Scottish Conservatives would hold only two MPs, John Lamont (Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk) and David Mundell (Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale). There is also a remote possibility that Andrew Bowie could hold West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine by a hair. Conversely, on a good day for the SNP, David Mundell would be unseated too. Note that in all scenarios current Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack would go down with the SNP gaining back the seat on a 5% lead. And this is only what the main YouGov poll says, as another stunning one focused on Tory-held seats only predicts the SNP would gain back all thirteen, raising the likely SNP result to 54, almost matching the 2015 upset. Whatever actually happens and even on the SNP's worst case scenario, here we have a strong and convincing confirmation of the first lock in the triple-lock mandate to seek Independence.

As usual turnout will be one of the main keys to the result, especially differential turnout. YouGov asked respondents to rate themselves on a scale from 0 (absolutely sure not to vote) to 10 (absolutely sure to fucking vote even if there's a snowstorm) which I summed up into four categories from Abstainers to Solid Voters for easier reading. As in previous YouGov polls the number of solid voters is higher than the actual turnout at the most recent elections, but never mind. What matters most is that Conservatives voters are the most likely to show up at the polling place, which is hardly a surprise. But SNP voters are close seconds, which is good news but should not be taken for granted as we know SNP voters have this uncanny habit of staying reesmogged in the fucking couch gulping fucking IrnBru when they think it's in the bag. Now higher turnout among 2016 Remainers is good news for the SNP and sadly for the LibDems too, but higher turnout among Yessers is definitely good for the SNP. Even so stay ready for a massive GOTV drive some day soon. 

Alister: Boris, meet Keene The Bull, got baws THAT big. Boris: Not a Scottish Tory then.

The Holyrood Snapshot

YouGov's Holyrood voting intentions are also highly satisfying for the SNP though not without ambiguity. It's a fact that the SNP have lost ground in Holyrood polls since 2016 and are only slowly regaining the lost votes. As it is now they would only barely enjoy the same leads over the second party as in 2016 in both votes and only because the oppositions are not doing too well either. The most spectacular prediction here is Labour nearly tied with the LibDems on the constituency vote and finishing fourth on the list vote. But the strong LibDem surge on both votes would split the Unionist vote and help the SNP while fatally wounding Labour, and the small Green surge would definitely help the pro-Independence majority on the list vote. The oddities of both FPTP and AMS would also for once favour the pro-Independence parties and strengthen their position.

The most momentous result here is obviously the SNP projected to win back an outright majority, albeit by just one seat. And the projected result and the breakdown of gains and losses show a massive success for the pro-Independence parties with the Greens gaining four seats and the SNP gaining two. Which would deliver an unprecedented 21-seat majority for the pro-Independence parties. Even so be ready for some locking of horns between the SNP and the Greens about one seat in particular: Edinburgh Central. Ruth Davidson gained it by a measly 610 votes with the Greens bagging 4,644 votes. Of course the SNP would want to avoid a rerun especially if a heavyweight like Angus Robertson or Joanna Cherry chooses to stand there. It's likely either Angus or Joanna would gain back the seat on their own merits, but better safe than sorry. Only have to find what to offer the Greens in return, that is anything but a constituency seat for Patrick Harvie. Anyway the projected result immediately secures the second lock in the triple-lock mandate to seek Independence, and that's what matters most. Then we would get the third lock as soon as the Scottish Parliament reconvenes with Holyrood voting 75-54 to renew the Scottish Government's mandate for Independence.

© Roderick MacDonald, Calum MacDonald 1987

For completeness' sake the other Holyrood prediction models (Scotland Votes and Election Polling) have slightly different results with the SNP on 63 or 64 seats 'only', but both have the Greens on ten seats too so that would translate in either a 17-seat or a 19-seat pro-Independence majority 'only'. But still a massive and unprecedented one. I have also tried worst case and best case scenarios using my model. Worst would be 62 SNP and 8 Greens for an 11-seat majority, still an improvement on 2016. Best would be 67 SNP and 10 Greens for a 25-seat majority, but this one looks somewhat unlikely. Or doesn't it?

Of course the main upset on Election Night would be Scottish Labour descending even deeper into the abyss, losing half their seats (and the two other prediction models agree on that one), ending up with no MSPs at all in two regions for the first time ever (Highlands and Islands, North East Scotland) and losing third party status to the LibDems. And there goes Richard Leonard, derided by the many and missed by the few. The LibDems would more than treble their representation (again the other two prediction models agree with my projected 16 LibDems seats). This would be a tremendous and unexpected success for Willie Rennie and Jo Swinson, with the LibDems holding all their constituency seats while gaining six list seats from Labour and five from the Conservatives. The Greens too would have many reasons to celebrate, gaining three list seats from Labour and one from the SNP. The only other difference between my model and the other prediction models is that Scotland Votes predicts three list seats for the Brexit Party and Election Polling predicts one, while my model says they would not bag any. This is because my model uses individual vote share projections for each region instead of an Uniform National Swing across all regions, so an average 5% for the Brexit Party would not bag them any seat anywhere. Now the overall projected seat breakdown:

With Labour predicted to lose all their three remaining constituencies and nine list seats we're bound for some choice popcorn moments during their selection process. Expect a rough mix of many cats in many bags and a drunken sailors' bar brawl that will make Needful Things look like the series finale of Glee. Even after losing her seat, don't think we would have seen the last of Jackie Baillie as she would obviously manage to sneak in anyway as the top list candidate for West Scotland, which Ken Macintosh will also have in his sights as his own list seat would be threatened. South Scotland would be fun too with Iain Gray having to fight to the finish for the top list slot with Shadow Minister Claudia Beamish. It would be easier for Daniel Johnson in Lothian as he would have no serious competition for the top slot after Kezia Dugdale and Neil Findlay both chose to stand down. The SNP would have only one tough choice to make in South Scotland with their list seats there predicted to fall from three to two. I guess the SNP leadership would want Paul Wheelhouse to hold his seat so either Joan McAlpine or Emma Harper would have to go, though it is quite possible the political climate would have changed to such an extent by Election Day that some Tory constituency MSPs could be successfully challenged. Think Oliver Mundell in Dumfriesshire where Joan might consider a rematch as the seat was a marginal in 2016.

YouGov also tested the likelihood to vote at the next Holyrood election and predicted turnout is only slightly lower than at the Westminster election. Then we see the same trends: Conservative voters the most likely to vote but closely followed by SNP voters, Remainers and Yessers more likely to vote. Again good news for the SNP and to a lesser extent for the LibDems. And obviously the same conclusion: never take any vote for granted and don't forget the massive GOTV drive in the run up to the election. But this election happening in 2021, after the snap GE of 2019 and (hopefully) the second Independence Referendum of 2020, might also benefit from a ripple effect from the two earlier votes. But you know, better safe than sorry….

Boris: Fucking Scottish bull, hasn't he heard about my powers of persuasion?

The Independence Snapshot

YouGov finds only 49% predicted to vote Yes when IndyRef2 happens. This looks disappointing after two previous polls predicting a Yes majority. Of course I count Panelbase's June poll as a Yes majority as it predicted 53% Yes if Boris Johnson became PM and it has happened, for worse or for worst. The oddity here is that YouGov find the same result as the last time they polled Scotland back in April. A lot has happened since and everything points to recent events boosting the support for Independence. Then you might endorse the glass-half-full approach and consider this is a good result as it is 4.3% up on the 2014 result, and also fits with the overall trend of IndyRef2 polling. And of course the poll was conducted before the English Labour Party once again tangoed on Scottish Independence. John McDonnell should have learned something from Boris Johnson's recent mishaps: pigheadedness and bullying no longer work and are now more likely to strengthen the resolve of those you try to intimidate. Too bad he did not actually listen.

The trendlines are clear: the support for Independence has steadily risen since early 2018 after a noticeable slump in the second half of 2017. A weak message on Independence during the 2017 GE campaign proved to be the SNP's kryptonite back then and would undoubtedly be so again in any upcoming election campaign. As the saying goes, those who ignore history are doomed to die by its bloody hideous claws. Or whatever. Then I guess the message has been heard as the SNP clearly intend to make the mandate for Independence a key component of any future campaign. I guess the provocative attitude of some Unionists, denying the mandate even already exists, also helped. Some in the Yes Movement are understandably impatient and don't approve Nicola Sturgeon's strategy. But even they must admit that Nicola has switched from overly cautious to cautiously bold with the Referendums framework bill fast-tracked in Holyrood and a clear commitment to requesting a Section 30 Order within this year. Which, like it or not, is the only way as long as we stick to this common Scottish trait of abiding by the rule of law, whether or not the law suits us. Now is not the time for UDI. Yet.

The weighted average of the last four IndyRef poll shows a near-tie, which is to be expected when you have two Yes majorities and two No majorities. Of course this is far from being carved in stone so the Yes camp definitely needs a powerful Project Hope campaign to counter a nasty Project Fear Reincarnate campaign. The actual result can still go either way as Unionists will definitely stop at nothing to secure a No vote. Even if that means changing the referendum question as the Electoral Commission is considering as a means to obfuscate the debate. The Yes campaign will need to be imaginative and proactive, making the case for how positive Independence can be rather than how destructive the Union is, even after Brexit. Then the current demographics of Independence might help choosing which buttons to push and which boxes to tick. 

YouGov did not poll the likelihood to vote at the independence referendum, so we can only hope it will be just as high as in 2014. But YouGov's crosstabs offer some interesting insights. For possibly the first time in their polls, Yes would win across all age brackets except 65+. But don't take that as a reason to delay IndyRef2 for another generation as you never know how the next batch of 16-24s might vote. If Labour and LibDems HQs were willing to listen to their own voters, they would take time to wonder why more than a third now support Independence, but of course they're too pigheaded to question their blind Unionism. Now the SNP and the Yes camp in general should also wonder why 12% of SNP voters and 18% of 2016 Yessers now choose No. Gaining back these 18% is more than enough to secure a Yes victory so don't give up on them just yet. The result will certainly be close so every vote will count, more than it ever did. You've been warned.

In other news, it's only Monday.

Cha Togar M'Fhearg Gun Dioladh

© Roderick MacDonald, Calum MacDonald 1987