Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow
Creeps in this petty pace from day to day,
To the last syllable of recorded time.
And all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death.
Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow.
A poor player that struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more.
It is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
© Calum MacDonald, Roderick MacDonald, 1987
A lot of this article will be devoted to the post-mortem of the General Election in Scotland. Which fits the Shakespearian title as there is always someone dying at some point and the other characters spend the best part of the last act commenting on it. An aside first about the Neale Hanvey situation, which is quite tricky for the SNP, so let's get it out of the way and move on. His past posts were really shameful and offensive and the SNP's vetting process was definitely at fault here, but he looks sincerely contrite and has made what look like genuine amends. Of course the SNP is not the Roman Catholic Church and contrition does not grant absolution. But I have no doubt he will and indeed should be reinstated after a reasonably long period in the decompression chamber. And, before they even start howling at the moon about it, Scottish Tories are the least legitimate to take shots at the SNP about this when their own revered UK leader is an unrepentant racist white supremacist, the only trait he actually shares with his idol Winston Churchill, and CCHQ steadily ignored all calls to tackle racism, antisemitism and islamophobia in their own ranks and are in total denial about it.
One obvious lesson from the Christmas Shopping Spree Election is that Scottish polling was much better this year than it had been 30 months ago. This was also the case for GB-wide polling but that's another story that will be told later. Our problem, mine anyway, was that the traumatic experience of 2017 led us to believe that polls could only overestimate the SNP vote, and that we should be ready for an even worse result than the very last poll predicted. Only it absolutely did not work that way this time. In fact the very last poll, conducted by Survation in the last two days of the campaign, was quite close to the result and slightly underestimated the SNP. And the one that had the closest seat projection to the actual result was Ipsos-MORI's, conducted almost three weeks before the election. Then it takes a combination of both to actually see what I believe are the two main lessons from this election. First the Unionist vote failed to coalesce around the Conservatives, contrary to what many including myself expected, as they actually lost a fair number of center-right Europhile votes to the Liberal Democrats. The few cases where the Conservatives gained votes (7 seats out of 59) probably have more to do with the Brexit factor in Leave-heavy areas than the Union factor, and anti-SNP tactical voting too in a handful of seats. Best example of the Brexit factor is Banff and Buchan, where the Conservative vote increased by 2.2% and is now the only Scottish seat with a Conservative majority of the popular vote, and was also the only Scottish constituency with a Leave majority in 2016. Best, or worst, example of Unionist tactical voting is of course North East Fife with its 10% swing from the Conservatives to the LibDems, which you can't possibly explain by the Brexit factor alone.
Labour's campaign fell mostly on deaf Scottish ears, as is exemplified by the number of seats with a 7% to 10% swing from Labour to the SNP. I see this as evidence that independence-leaning center-left voters got the SNP's message loud and clear and voted both for the party most able to defend Scotland's best interests against a hard-right Tory government, and to strengthen the mandate for Independence. One striking example is Edinburgh South West which turned from a SNP-Con marginal to a strong SNP hold, with a 12% swing from Labour to the SNP. Another is Ochil and South Perthshire where the Conservatives lost though bagging the same number of votes as in 2017, but there Labour lost 6k votes while the SNP gained almost 8k. You can also see a revealing pattern in Glasgow where the SNP (+26k votes) benefited from both the increased turnout (+16k) and Labour's slump (-9k votes). Also ten SNP MPs were elected with an outright majority of the popular vote two weeks ago compared to none in 2017. Best case here being probably Pete Wishart holding his seat on 50.6% of the popular vote, symbolically 0.1% higher than in 2015, when he nearly lost it 30 months ago. Yet another striking example is Alyn Smith gaining back Stirling on 51.1% of the vote when Steven Paterson had gained it for the SNP in 2015 on 'only' 45.6%. But there you can probably also factor in a very personal judgment on Stephen Kerr's subpar performance as constituency MP.
One of the keys to the SNP's success was increased turnout. The sharp drop of the SNP vote in 2017 was for the most part the consequence of SNP voters not showing up then because the SNP's campaign was shambolic and unconvincing, the main black spot being the lack of conviction about Independence. It worked the other way round this time despite some embarrassing statements in the later stages of the campaign, notably Nicola Sturgeon stating that a vote for the SNP 'need not be a vote for Independence'. Which may have been a good way to attract a number of former Labour voters but totally contradicts later statements that the results strengthen the mandate for Independence. Another interesting point is how the votes evolved from 2017 to 2019. Of course we don't have stats based on the actual results and probably will never have. But Ipsos MORI and Survation crosstabbed 2019 voting intentions with the 2017 votes. Below is the chart of transfers based on the average of the two polls, which is of course only an approximate picture, but probably the best we have and will ever have. Major points here are that the SNP had the most faithful electorate of all, and also scored big among 2017 non-voters, which covers both genuine new voters who were not eligible in 2017 and 2017 abstainers who came back to the polling place on 12 December.
There were lots of good moments during Election night so it's kind of hard to select one in particular. Let's just say that the second best moment was probably the mildly embarrassing one when John Curtice 'mummified himself with caveats' (BBC One Scotland's comment, not mine). It's true that we have gotten used now to Curtice laboriously waffle-piffling his way through several minutes of bumblingly non-committal gobbledygook that he could sum up with just "I don't have a fucking clue" and save everybody's time for more relevant comments. How a lad so obviously out of his depth can still pass as an authority and harvest hefty consultant fees for his every TV appearance is way beyond me. John Curtice, or the Boris Johnson of psephology. Or should it be the Russell Brand of psephology? Your move....Depending on whether you consider piffling waffles or gobbledygooking the worst offence. And the best moment of Election Night is definitely a tie between the look on Jo Swinson's face when it dawned on her she had just lost her seat for the second time, and her whole political career with it, by a squirrel's hair, and Nicola Sturgeon's reaction to the news, which Nigel Farage found 'graceless and nasty' because of course he has always been tasteful and kind in his comments about his adversaries. Not-PM Jo should definitely not have listened to Boris The Used Ministerial Cars Salesman. And it's not like she wasn't warned.
There is a lot to say about Scottish LibDems and none of it is good. Or did you really expect it to be? There was this running joke about Jo Swinson during the campaign: the more people see her, the less they like her. Now it turns out those who did not see that much of her, like her former constituents in Kirkintilloch and Milngavie, liked her even less so she became the shortest-lived LibDem leader of all time and the shortest-lived for any party except UKIP. Bye, bye, Jo. And of course this election was once again proof of the Scottish LibDems' hypocrisy and duplicity when they solicited tactical Brexiter Tory voting to unseat Stephen Gethins in North East Fife. So the LibDems are political whores? What a surprise indeed. And what a fucking shame when you remember Stephen was the first SNP MP to actively support the LibDem-sponsored People's Vote when other SNP MPs like Pete Wishart and Angus MacNeil expressed strong doubts about it, and he is the strongest Europhile of all SNP MPs of the Class of 2015. But don't expect any modicum of consistency or dignity from the LibDems, or did you? Seriously?
Common wisdom has it that we have never been so close to IndyRef2, then as I said already on a different matter, we have never been so close to the Sun turning supernova too. Of course things will be moving fast soon as the First Minister of Scotland has formally requested a Section 30 Order for the New Year. And just as with all New Year wishes, you may ask but you may never get. The bolder than expected request, for a permanent transfer of constitutional powers rather than a temporary one, definitely makes sense in the context of a framework legislation designed to cover all referendums and not just IndyRef2. I don't expect the First Minister of England to agree but another important part of Nicola Sturgeon's post-GE strategy is shifting the burden of proof. Meaning the Scottish Government does not have to prove they have a mandate but the English Government has to prove that they don't. Which of course will not change Boris Johnson's or Jackson Carlaw's talking points, but is a good way to attract 'soft No' voters who won't support Johnson's total disregard for democracy. Getting Indy Done has now become a case of 'an irrepressible force against an unmoveable object' as the soundbite went on Election Night. Bear in mind the support for Independence has not gone down despite some bumps during the campaign and the trend of polls shows that it's again a statistical tie, while polls as far back as last summer suggest that 'getting Brexit done' on Johnson's terms could shift enough voters to Yes to deliver a win. The whole point now is not to fall for the once-in-a-generation diatribes from the Unionist right, but to conclusively move the Overton window: the English Government has to justify why they are ready to trample democracy underfoot denying Scots the power to make their own decisions about their future, and even some Tories are now beginning to argue just that though of course none of the Scottish ones.
The Yes movement now has some unexpected allies who have sensed the wind is shifting, so their political stance shifts too. We have former Labour First Minister Henry McLeish, former Labour Minister Malcolm Chisholm, COSLA President Alison Evison, Ged Killen and Monica Lennon openly supporting a second Independence referendum, while Paul Sweeney advocates federalism and Kezia Dugdale is just one dog's hair away from actually supporting independence. I venture we can expect a number of such conversions over the coming months. Just pay attention to the details of what Neil Findlay, a federalist too in the vast array of contradictory options within Labour, just said. Contrary to The National's caption, he did not say independence is wrong per se. He said that it would be wrong to hold IndyRef2 before Brexit, which leaves the door wide open to supporting it after Brexit without contradicting himself too obviously. Last upset is now Daniel Johnson calling for Labour to have 'more control over independence' whatever this actually means. Though I suspect this is just Tricky Danny launching a preemptive bid to become the next Branch Office Manager after the next Holyrood election. Richard Leonard needs some time to mull over his various options, and I feel he has little choice but reluctantly backing holding IndyRef2. Of course the real change would be allowing his MSPs and Councillors a 'free vote' and just sitting back while some of them come out as Yes supporters. Don't rush to the conclusion this won't happen as Red Dick backing IndyRef2 was a complete impossibility just two weeks ago and now it's on the table and I venture up to a fifth of Labour's current elected representatives will sooner or later join the Yes Camp. Just sit back and watch. And enjoy the massive irony in all these conversions, that make sense only if Labour in Scotland become independent first and cuts all ties with their Unionist Head Office.
Despite all the positive signs from various sources, I believe more than ever that there is little hope of IndyRef2 being held before the end of the current Holyrood term. Nicola Sturgeon obviously knows it too, she is too well versed in the antics of English politics to have missed this, and I have a hunch she is actually counting on it helping to build a stronger case for Independence in a future campaign after the next Holyrood election, as playing the long game while maintaining a strong stance looks like a smart strategy now. We have had two Holyrood polls in early December from Panelbase and YouGov, both also polling GE voting intentions in the same survey. So how they fared on the GE voting intentions is an indication of which one is the most likely to fairly represent current Holyrood voting intentions. Panelbase predicted the SNP on 39% at the GE, so 6% off and clearly outside margin of error, and YouGov had them on 44%, so just 1% off and within margin of error. Which is the reason why I will rely on the YouGov poll only. As you can see it projects into a 'renewed, refreshed and strengthened mandate', as Nicola Sturgeon phrased it on Election Night, with the pro-Independence majority on 71 seats against 58 for the Unionist parties, and the SNP remarkably bagging more seats than all Unionists combined. It also predicts another significant blow for Labour, returning one third fewer seats for these luminaries who couldn't find their own ass with both hands and a hunting dog. And this would benefit both the Liberal Democrats as the emerging junior partner of the United Unionist Front, and the Scottish Greens who must once again face the contradiction in gaining seats by attracting anti-SNP voters. Then the good news is of course that the SNP would be only one seat down, no mean feat after three consecutive election victories and twelve years in power. Many parties all over the world would welcome such results.
Such polling will of course revive the old debate about Both Votes SNP, which is widely understood to mean the SNP going after Green list votes to switch Yellow-Green to Yellow-Yellow en masse. Of couse I would welcome Both Votes SNP. We almost got it in 2011 and it delivered the only SNP majority so far. But simulations from current voting intentions show that it could backfire, delivering only a tiny SNP majority and reducing the projected overall pro-Independence majority thanks to the twisted quirks of AMS. An alternate path is for the SNP to win a majority on the constituencies alone, which never happened. The path to 62 constituency seats looks rather easy at first glance as it entails only holding all current 59 seats and unseating all 3 Labour constituency MSPs. But even this is not as easy as it seems as current polling shows the SNP is in the danger zone in Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (Roseanna Cunningham's seat) and Edinburgh Southern (Labour Daniel Johnson's seat) might be a tougher nut to crack than expected. Then the road to 65 implies gaining Edinburgh Central, Aberdeenshire West and Ayr, the three most vulnerable Conservative seats, and this is far from a done deal. So the SNP might find it more convenient to choose a more diverse strategy, going after all the other parties in both the constituencies and the regional lists. That's my simulation in the chart below. The changes in the other parties' vote shares are all well within the margin of error of standard polls and the cumulative effect on the SNP vote would be like the best of both worlds: a one-seat SNP majority, as on current polling it's highly unlikely any scenario could get them past 65 seats, and no weakening of the overall pro-Independence majority.
Now it's up to the SNP to make it work, with this kind of strategy or another that would deliver similar results. Wiping out Labour from the constituencies is the easy part, though all three will probably come back in through the outdoor as list MSPs, and the SNP should also keep their eyes firmly on the most obvious prize: Edinburgh Central. Which is eminently doable if a major figure with strong ties to the Capital City stands; and aye I'm thinking Joanna Cherry here. Only bump on the road could be the Little Green Punks again fielding a vanity candidate in a seat where their only hope is to not lose their deposit. Unless of course they back down because they have learned the lesson from their massive and deserved failure at the general election: voters don't like backstabbers especially when they could jeopardize a shared goal that is much bigger than anyone's inflated egos. With the Scottish Tories in disarray after their massive general election defeat, gaining Colonel Ruth's seat would be a major step towards their demise and the Harvie Party should know better than to stand in the way.
Of course triple-locking the triple-lock is just one step and then the SNP must refine their strategy. Holding the predominantly Unionist media accountable for all falsehoods and misrepresentations is OK but telling them how to do their job is not the smartest trick in the book. Besides sounding patronizingly arrogant, just try to figure out how our very own John Nicolson would have reacted if he had received such summons from the Conservatives or Labour during his time at the BBC. Then don't make too much of the alleged similarity with Québec because there isn't one. Québec never was an independent nation for centuries before being annexed through fraud and deceit by a greedy colonial power. And Canada is a federal state, not a Union-cum-Devolution though their division of powers is arguably more favourable to the federal government than in the United States or even Germany. The SNP should also not rely too much on the well-rehearsed soundbite that 'Tories make the case for independence for us' as a number of voters might think otherwise, and it might even not always be true. I also think the SNP should avoid basing their campaign on the negatives of the Union as it would offer Unionists oven-ready counter-arguments. Concentrate instead on the positives of Independence and refine your talking points about the future currency and the future relation with Europe. And this is the moment when I wish to remind the SNP that rejoining the EU is not the one and only option. Joining EFTA should also be on the table as I strongly believe it would have as many upsides and fewer downsides than EU membership. And above all don't be distracted by Unionist stunts and win the fucking referendum. Or else the allegedly once-in-a-generation opportunity to achieve independence will become a very real once-in-a-lifetime.
My lifetime.
Hang out our banners on the outward walls.
The cry is still: "They come!".
Our castle's strength will laugh a siege to scorn.
Here let them lie till famine and the ague eat them up.
Were they not forc'd with those that should be ours,
We might have met them dareful, beard to beard,
And beat them backward home.
© Robert Burns, 1791
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