Jeremy's Den: June 2020

20/06/2020

A Summer Solstice's Scottish Play - Act IV of MMXX

Roll on, deep and dark blue ocean, roll
Ten thousand fleets sweep over thee in vain
Man marks the earth with ruin
But his control stops with the shore.
(Lord Byron, Childe Harold’s Pilgrimage, 1818)

It’s the law of inverse relevance
The less you intend to do about something, the more you keep talking about it
(Sir Arnold Robinson, Yes Minister: Open Government, 1980)

There was a Great Disturbance In the Force from Gretna to Baltasound when James Kelly published Episode One of his new Panelbase poll of Scotland two weeks ago, like billions of souls screaming: WE MADE IT!. Or wasn't there? Well possibly not in Baltasound, where they are likely to understand Independence for Shetland Party when they hear ISP. Anyway let's slow down here before we get carried away to the next galaxy. There was some over-reacting as the headline result was actually not that much of game-changer. The previous Panelbase poll in early May generated headlines going 'Yes and No tied 50-50'. Which was not the case, it was actually 46-46. Same here as we don't actually have Yes winning 52-48, but just Yes ahead 48-45. Without further information, this might have been considered as just some unavoidable random variation, and we had seen 52-48 already, hadn't we? But of course we all had a hunch that there was more to it, and dissection of the poll's other findings proved that there indeed is. First let's just pause for a moment and look at what the trend of IndyRef polling since 2014 says:

But the trendlines here are just one angle, as they factor out the undecideds and the raw data paint a less encouraging picture. In plain English: Yes does not have a majority, yet, because there are still thousands of undecideds. Which indicates a somewhat different direction for the future Yes campaign: don't go after the 2014 Noes who are still Noes, try instead to convince the undecideds. If it works, Yes wins with just as convincing a margin as No enjoyed in 2014. This might prove the path of least resistance for the SNP and the Scottish Government as they have repeatedly shied away from any radical approach to secure additional Yes votes. Going after the undecideds makes even more sense when you factor in where they stand on the key factors that boost the Yes vote. The handling of Covid makes 70% of the undecideds more confident Scotland would be well-governed as an independent country, compared to 59% of all respondents. 68% are less convinced that Scotland would be safer as part of the UK, compared to 59% average. 63% think Scotland would be safer if decision-making powers over lockdown were transferred to the Scottish Government, compared to 58% average. 61% of the undecideds also think Scotland should rejoin the EU, but this is a tricky one for the SNP as there is definitely less enthusiasm for rejoining than there was for remaining. Only 52% overall support it, 10% down on the Remain vote, which kind of vindicates my hunch that other options should be explored after Independence. But that's a wholly different story. The Yes camp also have a lot of food for thought in the demographics and politics of Independence, as depicted by the poll's crosstabs.

I left the undecideds in the chart to be consistent with my earlier point and show the kind of wiggle room the Yes camp have in some categories. Or where they can find the basis for some Blairish triangulation or Cummingsian creatively targeted campaigning. But the Yes movement definitely don't need Toxic Dom's beloved focus groups. They certainly have enough data from publicly available polls and Progress Scotland's research to know what to focus on, and enough grassrooters involved to feel the real mood of the people. Now James Kelly's poll highlights an interesting situation: 35% of Labour voters support Independence while only 51% definitely oppose it. So we have more Labour Yessers now than in any earlier poll and it only confirms how far Labour in Scotland are from really understanding the people's mood, even their own people's. But that's the price to pay when you allow dunces like Jackie Baillie and Ian Murray into positions of power. We all remember that Jeremy Corbyn did not have the fuckiest scoobie what actually happened with Scottish public opinion, but at least he grudgingly admitted that IndyRef2 should happen some time before the melting polar icecap floods Glasgow. But now Keir Starmer sounds worse than a repeat offender with his insistence on a 'radical federalism' that has Gordon Brown's prints all over it and was already a dead duck six years ago. Then, as Napoleon Bonaparte more or less said, never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Especially when this mistake has the potential to make things better for the Yes camp. The current weighted average of IndyRef2 voting intentions is still uncomfortably close to 50-50 and anything that might improve on this is welcome. Even if it includes the third and final death of Labour in Scotland. And this time the electorate might well choose to make sure that what is dead stays dead, to borrow a line from 'Supernatural'.

Then James Kelly saved the best question for last. The one asking people, in his own words, if they think "pro-Independence parties should consider including an outright promise of independence in their manifestos for a future election". Which I guess could be construed as "enough of the waffle-piffling about mandates and referendums and Section 30, let's just start the independence negotiations after the next Holyrood election". Kind of a Plan C, and 49% of the respondents approve it, with 29% opposing it and 22% on the fence. Not saying Nicola Sturgeon would or even should go for it, but Patrick Harvie certainly would, just for the added fun of putting some pressure on the Yellow Bellies. So let's fancy it does happen, and the trickiest part would come The Day After the Holyrood election: negotiating the severance package with the English Government. Which might very well end up like in this hilariously surreal scene in the 2013 reboot of Yes, Prime Minister, when James Hacker enumerates all that an Independent Scotland would 'owe' rUK, from the well-rehearsed population-based share of the UK debt to absorbing all of Royal Bank of Scotland's toxic assets, and the tab skyrockets to a whopping £387 billion. As Hacker says as a conclusion, "it's all just simple arithmetic". Definitely not saying the current English Government would be that harsh and greedy, or have that much imagination for detail. They would probably settle for a mere 300.

Events, the politicians' greatest enemy, they say

Plan till you're blue in the face, then things just happen, events take over

(Francis Urquhart, House Of Cards: To Play The King, 1993)

Some days you're the dog and some days you're the hydrant

(Detective Stella Bonasera, CSI NY: Recycling, 2005)

Panelbase also polled voting intentions for the next Commons election, then one that will never happen because we will of course be independent long before that. Or not. So, for argument's sake, let's say we would be in something of a 2019ish twilight zone that justified holding the European Parliament election: no longer quite in but not yet quite out, so entitled to representation for the few months before we are quite totally out. Here it is appropriate to remember the full sequence of real Scottish polls fielded since the December election. Only four of these so they're quite easy to keep track of. And they show incremental progress for the SNP and a definitely decremental trend for the other parties. Then the last Panelbase poll shows an intriguing phenomenon we hadn't witnessed before: a smallish swing from the Conservatives to Labour. I guess there is a combination of factors at work here. First of course is that the Conservative brand has become too toxic for centrist Unionists to support. Then a number of these same voters might have been seduced by Keir Starmer's masterplan for 'radical federalism', whatever that actually means, and are willing to give it a chance. Not that actually helps Labour in Scotland, as they would need a lot more than a 2% surge to reclaim any seats, let alone meet Ian Murray's dreamland target of 16 seats. But a little hope never hurts, or does it?

Key point here is that the very last poll hints that all the toom tabards could be lyed, drowned and woodchipped, except the MP for Morningside Polo Club who would be that tiny Red Rock amidst the Yellow Sea. Which of course will last only as long as Murray benefits from Tory tactical voting and Tory dark money. And that will certainly end some day when the Conservatives decide to have a go at what is actually a three-way marginal, and have found a better candidate than Miles Briggs. We can also safely bet that, even if the SNP scored an almost full slate, all shades of English Unionist Branch Offices would predictably deny that the SNP have got a mandate for anything because, ye ken, they can't have a mandate unless they bag 60 seats. Anyone ready to stand in Berwick? Then we have further evidence that the Conservatives in Scotland are way past the tipping point to zugzwang, and have only themselves to blame for this. Factor in Jackson Carlaw's lame leadership of the Branch Office and Boris Johnson's inept handling of the Covid-19 crisis and you have it. Even if Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the health emergency had been just average, she would still have the upper hand, and we know she did way better than that even with a few noticeable bumps along the way. But even what could have been PR disasters for the Scottish Government was handled skilfully. When the English Government, under similar circumstances, only compounded incompetence with arrogance and the stupidity of denial. Just insert Calderwood and Cummings here. So we have proof, if we ever needed any, that Boris has the Magic Touch for Scotland. Everything he touches with those blue gloves on turns to yellow. Awesome.

Even if you factor in the worst case scenario for the SNP, based on James Kelly's Panelbase poll, you still get a whopping 54 seats. LibDems would at best save only Alistair Carmichael who, for Boris Johnson's information, does not support Scottish Independence. Conservatives in Scotland would at best save David Duguid, John Lamont and David Mundell as even the Master of Courance is now beyond salvaging. From the Supine Six to the Terrible Three. Guess that would secure Iain Stewart's position as the next Secretary of State for Scotland, as he would be the closest approximation left to 'Proud Scot But...', which definitely sounds more heartfelt when told from Milton Keynes. So when you start doubting this last Panelbase poll because, ye ken, it can't happen because it has never happened, you remember that the SNP bagged an unprecedented 56 seats in 2015 on 50% of the popular vote and a 25% lead over the second party. So why couldn't they bag 58 seats on 51% and a 30% lead? Then you remember the SNP are genetically engineered to totally fuck up every other election campaign, and then you think: now why could they? But we shall not be defeatist, shall we?

Send two hundred wolves against ten thousand sheep, and see what happens

(Thoren Smallwood, A Song Of Fire And Ice: A Clash Of Kings, 1999)

Do you know how to outrun an alligator? Swim faster than the guy next to you.

(Detective Timothy Speedle, CSI: Cross Jurisdictions, 2002)

The best, and certainly the most relevant part of the Panelbase poll is its survey of voting intentions for the next Scottish Parliament election. Not that it said anything we did not know already, like the SNP's complete dominance on both votes. A 32% lead on the constituency vote, up from 24% in 2016. A 29% lead on the list vote, up from 19% in 2016. This only confirms what was already seen in three earlier polls fielded since Jackson Carlaw became leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party in Scotland: the SNP on their way to a fourth term eleven months out, and on vote shares every ruling party worldwide could only dream of after thirteen years in power. Which of course is also the point where the SNP get all woozy with patting themselves on the back and kind of lose focus on the prize. Just remember that five years ago, the last published Holyrood poll had the SNP on 60% of the constituency vote and 50% of the list vote, which would have delivered 74 SNP seats on the voting patterns that prevailed back then, and we all remember how it ended. But let's not be defeatist (again) and just enjoy what our last poll predicts. The numbers are slightly different from what I tweeted after reading James Kelly's post that included rounded vote shares, as we now have Panelbase's full report that lets us have unrounded vote shares. And, as you know, the devil is in the decimal places. Again. So here's my final say: an outright and unprecedented 17-seat majority for the SNP. No more need to indulge the Little Green Men's every whim, just have to deal with the familiar internecine feuds. That, or fights among themselves, in Jim Taggart's immortal words. Happy now?

Let's just say now that I do believe, with all the necessary yet non-Curticean caveats, that the SNP vote will not fall as dramatically as it did between mid-2015 polling and the 2016 election. There are three strong factors at work here that weren't there five years ago, and all definitely boost the SNP: Brexit, Boris Johnson, Jackson Carlaw. And I'm quite sure the SNP's spads have all the oven-ready stunts to keep all three firmly in the public's mind over the next ten-and-a-half months. Quite sure too those in the SNP's Ninth Circle also have enough oven-ready dead-cat material to keep Big Eck out of the news cycles by any means and for as long as necessary. The SNP can of course also rely on Nicola Sturgeon's popularity and credibility being at an unprecedented all-time high, notwithstanding what some of us might consider faults in her leadership. And never mind the redundantly tautological phrasing, 'unprecedented' is definitely the 'in' word these days. I must also confess that one of the best moments in the poll's aftermath was Angus Robertson's shameless, and just one wee smitch heavy-handed, hagiography of Nicola Sturgeon. Certainly has nothing to do with Angus's own plans for 2021, or has it? Never mind, let's just move on and have a look at the full breakdown of seats as predicted by the last poll. Don't be too surprised at the SNP bagging list seats in Central and Glasgow, where they already bag all the constituency seats. This is just the combination of how the PR part of AMS and my model work. I don't allocate the list seats on some sort of universal swing across the nation. I first calculate projected vote shares individually for each region, based on the 2016 vote shares and where national trends are projected to take them. So the SNP on 48.5% of the list vote nationwide takes them to 54% in Central and 53% in Glasgow, enough for one list seat in each on top of the constituencies. The projections also make the case for Both Votes SNP in Glasgow, where the seventh seat would go yellow by just about 700 votes, and also in Highlands and Islands, where the seventh and SNP's second list seat would be won by some 1,000 votes.

As you might expect this new poll triggered a fuckload of tweets about the various ways to fuck the SNP on the list vote because, ye ken, what better way to achieve Independence than fucking the SNP? For the record, no matter how strongly I feel the 'Women Are Men' act should be dumped with all the other toxic stuff to the bottom of Beaufort's Dyke neatly wrapped in concrete, it will still be pretty low on my list of priorities come Election Day and the real issue is securing a stronger pro-Indy majority. Center-stage was of course Colette Walker's Independence for Scotland Party (ISP) which, if you've watched all episodes, weighs about fuck all in current polls. So let's assume again that the ISP is actually a thing and not just one of The National's clickbait stunts and they have a possible baseline vote of 1%, and then gnaw their way up step by step until the have diverted 1/4 of the projected SNP list vote and reach a whopping 13%. And before you object we've been down that road already, of course we have but this is more of a reboot than a replay, as each new poll moves the goalposts a wee smitch and I haven't upgraded my model to deal with such scenarios for nothing. So, up to 5% of the vote, the ISP don't increase the number of pro-Indy seats, with their first two seats snatched away from the SNP. Then on 6%, which is already beyond what they can realistically expect, they increase the pro-Indy majority by one seat, but four out of their projected five come from the SNP or the Greens. Then if I stretch the outer limits of plausibility and credit them with 13%, they bag fifteen seats with 40% of these snatched away from the historic Indy parties and only 60% from the Unionist parties. Not really putting all the 'wasted votes' to optimum use. Or is it?

I guess the results here speak for themselves, as they did twice earlier already. In the likely range of votes, ISP do not get seats on top of the other pro-Indy parties, they get them instead of the other pro-Indy parties. Been there, done that, case closed. But of course the ISP cultists don't have the fuckiest scoobie how AMS actually works as their mantra is "it's so fucking complicated, mate". Well it's not. The basic math at work here is the highest averages method, which is in fact the second simplest after the largest remainders method. But of course whining about the alleged complexity saves you admitting that it does not work the way you claim it does. Then there must be some tinge of madness in Colette Walker's fanbase as they kind of expect that repeating the same moves over and over again, as in repeating the same simulation on each and every poll's data, will lead to different results. They also have a lot in common with climate change deniers. No matter how often you rub their nose in it with the science, which is this case is just basic math anyone can check by typing the right numbers in the right boxes on Election Polling and then clicking 'Submit', they're back at it like the neighbour's shag-deprived mutt humping your leg. Which once again proves that delusion is just like global warming: man-made.

Let us hold fast the mortal sword and, like good men, bestride our downfall'n birthdom

Each new morn, new widows howl, new orphans cry, new sorrows strike Heaven on the face

That it resounds as if it felt with Scotland, and yell'd out like syllable of dolour

(Macduff, Macbeth: Act IV, Scene III)

11/06/2020

House Of Cards 2024 - JB's Birthday Update

Forsan et haec olim meminisse juvabit

(Virgil, Aeneid: Book I, Line 203)

Underpaid? Backbench MPs? Being an MP is a vast, subsidized ego trip

It’s a job in which you need no qualifications

Show them a map of the world and most have a job finding the Isle of Wight

There are no compulsory hours of work, no performance standards
You get a warm room and subsidized meals
For a bunch of self-opinionated windbags and busybodies
Who suddenly find people taking them seriously
Because they’ve got the letters “MP” after their name
How can they be underpaid when there’s about 200 applicants for every vacancy?
You could fill every seat 20 times over even if they had to pay to do the job!

(James Hacker, Yes, Prime Minister: A Real Partnership, 1986)

It's been six months since the General Election, and I will come back to this soon. It's also been twelve weeks today since Boris Johnson told us that the United Kingdom could turn the tide of coronavirus in twelve weeks, provided we had mass testing and strict social distancing. What actually happened is that the same Boris Johnson couldn't wait that long and decided, after only seven-and-a-half weeks, that it was time to turn the tide of health policy and end unbearable infringements on our basic freedoms, mostly the unalienable rights to get pissed in packs and be terminally daft for life, while of course staying alert as the new slogan goes. I guess the lookouts on the Titanic were also told to stay alert and it worked really well, didn't it? Fortunately, all of Boris's ramblings about schools, support bubbles and what-the-fuck are for England-only consumption, and North Of The Wall we know better. On top of that it's also my birthday, which I won't comment on as it does not involve psephology, and (surely coincidentally) also Peter Dinklage's and Hugh Laurie's. In the meantime and totally out of the blue for the common folk, though not for these in Johnson's Ninth Circle, came the Big Story Of Last Month, Dominic's Escapade To Sunny Barnard Castle. We will surely never know all the gory details of what actually happened as Government policy is to shamelessly lie about it, and they already have retconned it more often than the Star Trek Reboot writers. One of the best moments was of course when Toxic Bully Cummings delivered his Durham Defence from Number Ten's Rose Garden, with the looks of a grumpy mortician at the tail end of a double shift where he had to embalm himself. There is no doubt the major fiasco has seriously dented the Tories' credibility as seat projections from general election polls show.

On the left is the seat projection I published here on 10 May, based on the last six polls available back then. Move to the right and you have the last three polls before the Cummings Asteroid hit SW1 and wrought havoc on Number Ten. Note that Boris Johnson and his assorted swarm of bumbling dimwits had already done a pretty good job at undermining themselves and lost a projected 38 seats over two weeks. But the juicy part was yet to come after PMQs and pressers turned into cheap sitcoms with the fake laughter track removed. First Tories lost another 32 seats basically overnight and again another 20 by the end of the week. That's the Cummings Effect for you: 90 perfectly viable virtual seats woodchipped down the pipes in a month. Not bad for a maverick spad whose lone previous achievement was funnelling massive amounts of dark money into a campaign to rig a referendum by all sleazy means necessary and beyond. Not even the Former Prince of Darkness Alistair Campbell did as well, as Tony Blair was wise enough for once to throw him under the bus before he could inflict terminal damage on the New Labour brand. Then of course you couldn't expect anything even remotely similar from Boris Johnson. The First Minister of England had no choice but squandering his already minute political capital on behalf of Cummings. Like it or not, Boris with Toxic Dom by his side is a blabbering buffoon with a script. Take away Dom and all that's left is the empty shell of the blabbering buffoon. And that was just the first week, it kept on getting worse. More on this after our break.

You don't plan sincerity, you have to make it up on the spot

(Alan Shore, Boston Legal: Fat Burner, 2007)

Morals? Invented by the power elite to keep the hoi polloi from enjoying themselves

(Denny Crane, Boston Legal: Chitty Chitty Bang Bang, 2006)

We know Boris Johnson loves his classics and he proved it again lately when he revisited almost the full "Tommy" album from "It's a Boy" to "We're Not Gonna Take It" but kind of skipped "Listening To You". Then Boris might want to rewrite part of the story, as he is prone to do when he doesn't like the memories, as I have the sensation that '21 is gonna be a shit year for him right from the start, anticipating the twists and turns in Pete Townshend's plotlines. Then it would be daft to conclude that the song is over for Johnson, as only a massive rebellion on the Tory backbenches could achieve that and we're definitely not there. Yet. Then Arch-Brexiteer and Friend Of Dom's Danny Kruger, MP for Devizes, did his best to trigger just such a rebellion with his idle threats and attempts at bullying Tory MPs who openly called for Toxic Dom to be sacked. Now 45 of them have done just that and another 55 have socially distanced themselves from Cummings, with the frequent caveat that they're only relaying their constituents' concerns. And you can't withdraw them all the whip, can you? As Blabbering Boris would then lose his hard-earned majority. All bark and no bite, in true Borista fashion. For the record Schemy Danny inherited his seat, a Tory heaven since 1784 save for some Whig/Liberal interludes, from Claire Perry in return for her appointment as President of the now-postponed 2020 Climate Change Conference. Only for her to be sacked six weeks after the election on a flimsy pretence to cuddle.... aye, you got it.... Cummings. Anything to please Dominic.

Now it's been almost three weeks since the Guardian and Mirror outed Cummings for his Durham Escapade, so public opinion have had time to process it, digest it and incorporate it in the never ending story where Boris doesn't look good. The current English Government is already filed under 'Stuff Legends Are Made Off', and not one of those with 'Happily Ever After' tagged at the end. Just remember that Jack the Ripper too is a legend, in his own special way. And what passes now for a Government is definitely one-of-a-kind in a history full of one-of-a-kinds: a motley crew of camel-hooved fly-by-nights and weasely chancers, who can't even get their cover-up stories straight and don't realize all they have left is deniable plausibility. So, twelve weeks after Boris said the story would be wrapped up in twelve weeks, the UK has the highest death toll in Europe, and England, Boris's exclusive responsibility, the highest death toll per capita in the world. That's what happens when you make up policy on the hoof and are better at gagging your own scientists than at listening to them. But of course it's still better than if it had been worse and we should all thank Boris and Dominic for falling short of 500,000 deaths. Then the polling debacle I mentioned earlier was just a part of a staged process, meaning of course 'happening in stages' and not 'faked' in the Michael Gove fashion. Consider that Tories, all by themselves and without Toxic Dom's help, had already managed to shrink their lead over Labour from 26% to a measly 12%, just the actual December result, in a month before their Septimana Horribilis. Then Toxic Dom brought it down to 5-7% and it slipped downhill again afterwards to 2-3%. Enough to make a hung Parliament a credible prospect again, and the possibility of a Labour minority government less of a drug-induced fairy tale than it looked just six weeks earlier.

The trends of polls definitely look like the Ghost Of Jeremy Corbyn and all his bad luck spells have now been exorcised, as New Militant has given way to New New Labour under Sir Keir Starmer, CPS, ME. Guess it's just time now for Please-Call-Me-Keir 2.0 to upgrade from forensics to badass politics, no matter how enjoyable his merciless CSIing of Blabbering Boris at PMQs is. Even the Guardian says so, more or less. Because, ye ken, even Boris bumbling like Laurel does not make Keir Hardie. Hardly. Then the weighted average of the last three published general election polls, fielded between 3 and 5 June, definitely looks good for Labour. I confess I was a wee smitch mischievous here as I selected only the last three instead of the usual last six, just for the fun of hammering home that the Conservatives have reached their peak bottom. For now. Labour trailing by barely 3% is similar to the 2017 popular vote and a timely reminder that Hardy Keir can do as well as Jeremy Corbyn at his first general election. Then the Conservatives in 2005 also came within some 3% of Labour, and Tony Blair still bagged a 64-seat majority, so the math is not always what it seems to be, depending of where you start from. Which does not change the fact that the Tories' prospects right now are somewhere between the shallow end and the deep end of the Marianas Trench.

But of course Sir Keir deserves fuck all credit for this miracle cure to Labour's travails. All he has actually done, if anything, is that Sun Tzu thing about "sitting on the dock of the bay, watching the corpses roll away" that Alex Salmond loves to quote too. We all know The Dom Did It and Sly Keir knows it too. Which is why he went all softie on Johnson here when others called for Cummings to be sacked on the spot, including even 45 Conservative MPs totally unimpressed by Danny Kruger's wooden-sabre-rattling. Because the longer Demonic Cummings stays, the more egg Johnson has on his face and the more time New New Labour have to come up with something akin to an actual New New Manifesto. Simples. But Keir should also let his Twitter followers remind him that the slogan is definitely not 'Black Lives Matter But', even if it's the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth that slave traders were once pillars of their communities. And aye, before anyone shouts it across the schoolyard, in Scotland too.

It begins with a blessing and it ends with a curse

Making life easy by making it worse

My mask is my Master, the trumpeter weeps

But his voice is so weak as he speaks from his sleep, saying

Why, why, why, why are we sleeping?

(Kevin Ayers, Why Are We Sleeping?, 1968)

"Thank God he didn't bring his brother"

Rome may have been built in a day
But it took only a trumpet to bring down the walls of Jericho
(Bernie Wooster, Jeeves And Wooster: The Ties That Bind, 1993)

Soon the English Government will be working triple shifts to Get No Deal Done, which has been the plan all along for Brexit Fundamentalists and their business associates eagerly waiting to cash in on their offshore tax-haven investments playing against the pound. And it's the moment Guardian chooses to publish as news something the lot of us have known for two full months already: that the English Government will use Covid-19 as a cover-up for the massive Brexit fallout. Of course the English Government will again spin their strategy, or utter lack thereof, into yet another fairy tale about Taking Back Control. Then how could they possibly take back control of the UK's fate when they have already lost control of the narrative?

Current polling shows that the electorate is definitely not moving on from the fallout of the Cummings cover-up, no matter how hard the First Minister of England wishes they would. And it might get even worse for him shortly as pressure mounts for a real investigation. Then Boris still has the option of using unrepented lockdown flouter and billionaire's crony Robert Jenrick as scapegoat, though that would probably neuter no more than a couple of news cycles before the people refocus on Toxic Dom. Right now the usual team of predictors reflect just that even if they vary on the extent of the damage. But even the least unfavourable projection is pretty damning for the English Conservative and Unionist Party and their Colonial Branch Offices. Then Tories have their heads buried so deep in the quicksand of denial they probably don't have the fuckiest scoobie what just hit them in the arse and how to actually move on from it. My own projection is quite amusingly close to what I had at the end of March 2019, which is an eternity, a Prime Minister and a Big Bang ago in British politics. Of course fifteen months ago the LibDems still showed up on the radars and not just on the sonars, and we had just a weeish SNP surge compared to the big one we have today. But the projected seats for Tories and Labour were quite similar, just two months before the totally unnecessary and avoidable European Parliament election of 2019 rocked the tables and turned the boat, its aftermath eventually sinking both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn. So here's what we have this week:

My own projection is a radical departure from the one I published a month ago, with Tories down a projected 95 seats from then. It relies on the last three UK-wide polls for the whole of England including London, as we haven't had a London-only poll in three months. On top of it I factored in no changes in Northern Ireland, as they haven't been polled at all since December, and the results of the most recent Welsh and Scottish national polls from YouGov and Panelbase respectively. For the Scottish seats I did not rely on the very last Panelbase poll only, the one that predicted 58 SNP seats. Instead I used the weighted average of the last two Panelbase polls and that's still a whopping 56 SNP seats, which is.... uh...… more realistic? Though you can argue that's me going down the "58 can't happen because it has never happened yet, but 56 can because it already has" road that is usually a trademark of the cautious punditariat, but I definitely can live with that. Anyway the overall result is disturbingly close to 2010, only with the Liberal Democrats' and the SNP's positions reversed in an almost perfect mirror image. Meaning there would be absolutely no way Boris Johnson could wriggle his way out of the debacle with a makeshift coalition, though that would not necessarily be the last we'd see of him before the Downing Street gates bump his arse on his way out.

Remember Edward Heath burrowed himself for four days at Number Ten in February 1974, and Gordon Brown for five days in May 2010, until they both had no choice but bowing to the inevitable. Guess Boris Johnson would definitely want to beat them at it, even if he had to commandeer the Cabinet War Rooms and a truckload of chlorinated chicken for sustenance. And Boris would probably be right to gamble for time as the former Director of Public Prosecutions for England and Wales wouldn't have that strong a case here. A hypothetical Labour-led Rainbow Min Coalition would bag only 269 seats, or at most 277 if the DUP supported it for the sheer pleasure of exacting revenge on Boris for his many betrayals. A Rainbow Max coalition including the SNP would definitely be a stronger and safer option on 325 seats and the weest of majorities, but I just can't hold my breath on it actually happening. Because Sir Keir would have to do the unthinkable, the only move that could make Ian Murray and Jackie Baillie formally defect to the Conservatives: strike a deal with the SNP for confidence and supply in return for IndyRef2 being held some time before the Sun turns supernova. Though the full extent and cartography of predicted gains and losses, and hopes for a few more, might incentivize him to do just that. On current polling numbers, the direct projection says 65 seats would change hands, which is in fact not that much for an election having the potential to dramatically change the direction of the country, and here we go with the full fatality list.

Quite unsurprisingly almost two thirds of the changes would be former Red Wall seats in the North and Midlands switching back to Labour. It also looks like the Scotland Office is definitely cursed as the current Secretary of State Alister Jack, former Secretaries Alistair Carmichael and David Mundell, the current Minister Iain Stewart and the former Minister Douglas Ross would all lose their seats. Not a good day either for Boris Johnson's 'vision for the Union' as the newly-anointed Minister for the Constitution and Devolution Chloe Smith would also go down. Labour making most of their inroads outside Little England means that most of the fatalities would be rookie backbenchers from the Class of '19 who are probably considered expendable anyway. But Labour would still score a handful of noticeable hits on the Conservative frontbench with Business Secretary Alok Sharma, formerly Amber Rudd's sidekick at DWP, Science Minister Amanda Solloway and Deputy Chief Whip Stuart Andrew also kicked out. Unseating 1922 Committee Chairman Graham Brady and ERG Deputy Chair Steve Baker would be added unexpected bonuses. But of course Labour should certainly set their sights higher to make the most of what polls predict could happen in England, behind and beyond the Red Wall. More on this after our break.

Why is it that when one man builds a wall,

The next man immediately needs to know what's on the other side?
(Tyrion Lannister, A Song Of Ice And Fire: A Game Of Thrones, 1996)

No man chooses evil because it is evil, he only mistakes it for happiness
(Mary Wollstonecraft and Horatio Caine, CSI Miami: A Horrible Mind, 2006)

Now a closer look at what polls predict for England outside London gives clear hints about what Labour's strategy should be in the coming months. I have left London out here because, Keir, I've a feeling London is not in England anymore. The wizardry of voting patterns in the Imperial Capital has a life of its own, which is quite different from what you find even in the neighbouringest boroughs of Little England. But what polls show across the other three meta-regions of England is Labour on the way to recovery. They have already almost made up for lost blood in the North and Midlands, and even gone a wee smitch beyond that in the South. The LibDems holding their ground much better down there might be a factor, as it also deprives the Conservatives of much needed centrist voters who might also start to like Sir Keir.

My updated projection of English seats reflects just that, with Labour already reclaiming almost all the Red Wall seats lost six months ago, and even making some unexpected inroads in the South. Of course this is only the beginning and Labour must do much better to reclaim Number Ten. Keir Starmer might already be miles ahead of Neil Kinnock's 1992 result in the South, but he's still a far cry from what Tony Blair achieved even at low ebb in 2005. But getting the best of all worlds could be something of an ideological challenge, inasmuch as Hardy Keir actually has any ideology at all. Now he has to talk radical and internationalist enough to hold the youth vote, yet centrist enough to swing Little England's middle class and BritNat enough to consolidate New New Labour's restored grip on the Northern working class who voted for the Brexit Party in May and for the Conservatives in December last year. Now the lad who slyfoxed his way to the top rung of post-Momentum Labour probably has it in him to do just that. Provided the posh Surrey-raised Knight In Light Red Armour can motivate all the right foot-soldiers in all the right places.

Of course these projections show that Demonic Cummings has helped Labour only through the easy part, reclaiming the chunks of the Red Wall that crumbled down last December. And since Labour definitely can write off permanently these Feeble Forty Scottish seats lost in 2010, here comes the hardest part of the game: taking back at least the English seats they bagged in 2005 and lost later, which is 58 above their current prediction for 2024 and does the trick. Then, on a projected 312 seats UK-wide, Sly Keir could count on SDLP support and would just have to subjugate the remaining LibDems, the Greens, the Alliance and Plaid Cymru. Gathering this Rainbow Min Coalition could certainly be easily done, easier than for Gordon Brown in 2010 anyway, and spare Keir the awkward face-to-face moments with those pesky ScotNats. After all, if Labour can potentially bag an extra 51 seats on top of last December's result with outside help only, they certainly can bag another 58 and then some if they mobilize all their own resources. Or can't they? The English Government might not have sent coronavirus packing, but English voters might be in the mood to do just that to Boris Johnson, on a one-way ticket to Carrie's and Dilyn's £1.3 million mansion in Camberwell.

Forsan miseros meliora sequentur

(Virgil, Aeneid; Book XII, Line 153)

02/06/2020

America The Beautiful - An Election Update

The way I see it, if you want the rainbow, you gotta put up with the rain

(Dolly Parton)

Some people see things as they are and ask why
Others see things as they never were and claim mad cow
(Alan Shore, Boston Legal: Stick It, 2006)

The land of the free and the home of the brave, they say. This is the country where people are ready to accept a 60% pay cut because employers provide health insurance so you have to stay on the payroll at any cost or you lose all coverage in times of pandemic. The choice between poverty or death, that's the American Dream for you. Not that it could happen in the UK, or could it? And yet Donald Trump's electoral prospects have not sunk to the bottom of the Mariana Trench as the rally-around-the-flag Christo-fascist rhetoric still works with whole chunks of low-education Americans, and there are just enough of them to win an election. Biden has Silicon Valley, Martha's Vineyard and Bono. Trump has all the shiftless peckerwoods, so a winning hand in two dozen States as long as the Supreme Court upholds the ban on mandatory literacy tests to register to vote. Always bear in mind this is the country where Nazis are protected by the Constitution and anyone with enough dosh can buy themselves a seat in either House of Congress, or an acquittal at a multiple rape-murder trial, depending on which is most urgently needed. So the narrative some months ago was "don't believe what you see in the polls, Trump will pull a rabbit anyway" and it was pretty convincing during the primary season when the Generic Democrat's lead over Trump remained close to the 2016 result. Now, and one Covid crisis later, the picture has changed quite dramatically as the trendlines show.

The big dots on the left show the 2016 vote shares and the trendlines factor in only the polls fielded in 2020, which is why they don't connect with the big dots as this year's polling has steadily been better for Biden than the last election was for Clinton. There has also been speculation about Bernie's People, those who supported Sanders in the Democratic primary, only reluctantly supporting Biden, or even deserting him, after Sanders dropped out of the race. There is no real evidence one way or the other in polls, as the variations in Biden's voting intentions have remained within +/-1% of the trend, though individual polls have shown larger variations. One of the factors here is that the sample sizes for individual polls (shown by the tiny dots in the chart) vary widely from some 800 to more than 30,000. This leaves the door open to more random variations than in British polls, especially with a probable turnout of 130 to 140 million. So the weighted average of the last six polls is just as good a clue of where the election might go. Right now it shows Biden leading by 5.6%, or 3.5% higher than Clinton in 2016. Which is good news for Biden as four of Trump's 2016 states were decided by a smaller margin (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Florida) and another two by a barely larger one (Arizona, North Carolina). These are just the battlegrounds where Biden needs a clean sweep for a convincing victory.

Then of course US-wide polls tell only part of the story, actually a rather minor one even if it makes for easy headlines. What truly matters is state-by-state polling and how it translates in the number of electoral votes (EVs) for each candidate when the Electoral College convenes in mid-December. The tables below shows what these polls predict this week. State names in bold red denote those predicted to switch from Trump to Biden. The resulting number of Biden's EVs would match Obama's in 2012 with a slightly different map. Compared to Obama's 2012 results, Biden would lose Iowa and Ohio but gain Arizona and North Carolina. Interestingly Obama had won North Carolina in 2008 but Arizona has a long history of supporting Republican candidates. The last time a Democrat won Arizona was Bill Clinton in 1996, and the last one before that Harry Truman in 1948. State-by-state polls also deliver some interesting results in supposedly strongly Republican states. A lot of pundits have a hard time admitting that Georgia and Texas, to name only two, could be too close to call on Election Night, as both have been solidly Republican for many years. But demographics in both are steadily moving the Democrats' way, just like in Arizona and Florida. Proof of this is that, two years ago, Democrats came within 1.4% of unseating Republican Governor Brian Kemp in Georgia, and 2.5% of unseating Republican Senator Ted Cruz in Texas. Though I wouldn't hold my breath for a presidential upset in either state this year.

It's interesting to see that American prognosticators and pundits have different views about this election. Roughly the split between a data-based approach (it can happen because the polls say so) and a precedent-based approach (it can't happen because it hasn't happened already). Of course the punditariat have something of a short-term tunnel vision here. After all they're the same who said Clinton would win in 2016 because Obama had won twice and are now doubting Biden because, ye ken, Trump won the last one. Right now prognosticators say it's Biden by 316 to 222, the only difference with my projection being that they allocate North Carolina to Trump. The punditariat have a more ultra-cautious approach with Biden on 222-268, Trump on 204-233 and a further 57-112 rated as 'tossups'. Their average now is Biden winning 290-248, which is my 'Biden Min' scenario with Florida and North Carolina staying in the Trump column. As usual, time will tell, but I have a hunch the changed context makes it more difficult for Trump to stage a Clintonian 'Comeback Kid' upset now.

If it is what it is, it ain't what it ain't. Don't make it what it isn't.

(Detective Sergeant Frank Tripp, CSI Miami: Sunblock, 2007)

When you fling enough crap into the universe, occasionally the breeze is going to blow your way.

(Captain Jim Brass, CSI: Torch Song, 2013)

This November's Senate elections might also deliver some upsets. Here only state-by-state polling matters and it is currently surprisingly favourable for Democrats. Below are the tables of projected results according to the most recent polls for each seat. Projected Democratic gains are in bold red and the lone projected Republican gain in bold blue. There is no doubt many Democratic candidates would be riding Biden's coattails as several of the predicted Democratic gains mirror their successes in the presidential polls. But polls also say that Democrats would harvest surprise gains beyond that, in complete reversal of the 2014 elections which saw Democrats lose the Senate when the same seats were last up for re-election. But the projected Senate map would be different from the pre-2014 one as Democrats would not recoup all their losses. Some of the seats lost in 2014 now look decisively out of reach (Arkansas, Louisiana, South Dakota, West Virginia). Only three of the Democratic losses of 2014 would turn blue again (Colorado, Montana, North Carolina) while the last two (Alaska, Iowa) would be weak Republican holds.

But there remains a certain amont of uncertainty as Senate elections tend to be highly personalized and skeletons in the closets have the nasty habit of surfacing late in the campaign. The Arizona seat looks like a sure gain for Democrats as they already gained the state's other seat in 2018 and demographics there favour them. But the predicted gains in Kansas and Maine definitely look more difficult to score, and some pundits even consider them quite far-fetched, as Democrats haven't held these seats since 1918 and 1978 respectively. But Democrats clearly hope that Trump cultist Kris Kobach will prove toxic even in Ruby Red Kansas as he was already decisively defeated at the gubernatorial election two years ago, and that this election will be the one too many for 'moderate' Republican four-term veteran Susan Collins in Maine. So the spread between the best case and the worst case scenarios for Democrats is quite large, and you can't rule out Republicans holding control of the Upper Chamber by the tiniest of margins.

American pundits are also quite divided about these elections. Their predictions credit Democrats with 45-50 seats (all including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats) and Republicans with 47-50 seats, with 2-6 seats rated as Tossups. Which covers pretty much all possible combinations between my 'Dem Max' and 'Rep Max' options and leaves nobody none the wiser, as they say. Then some among the punditariat are secretly dreaming these elections will deliver the rarely seen 50-50 split. In the current highly polarized climate, many votes would probably go 50-50, meaning the Vice-President would cast the tiebreaking vote. That would be Trump's Veep Mike Pence, himself quite a far-right fundamentalist, for the two weeks between the swearing-in of the new Senate and Inauguration Day, and then the next Veep, whoever that may be. I guess some pundits would love nothing more than Trump trying to pass some controversial legislation during that twilight zone session. Which would no doubt trigger a major uproar and just the kind of crisis that makes for juicy headlines.

Denny Crane: Say what you will about Republicans
We stick to our convictions even when we’re dead wrong
Alan Shore: Some might say especially then
(Boston Legal: Witches Of Mass Destruction, 2005)

Denny Crane: You Democrat! Protesting wars, banning guns.
If you nancies had your way, nobody would ever shoot anybody.
And then where would we be?
Alan Shore (shaking head): Where would we be?
(Boston Legal: Smile, 2006)

The House of Representatives elections are not predicted to deliver any stunning changes as Democrats have already scored a major success in 2018 when they took back control of the House with 10% of its seats changing hands. The general trend of recent polling has been less kind for Democrats than it was a few weeks back, without actually jeopardizing their dominant position. Even more caveats apply here though than for the presidential polls. Sample sizes here are routinely somewhere between 800 and 1,200 with the random one surveying about 2,000. So there is huge room for any kind of random variations, especially as American pollsters mix surveys of registered voters and likely voters, and their approach of 'likely voters' is generally less solid than the 'likelihood to vote' algorithms used by British pollsters. But that's all we have, so we have to live with it.

The current weighted average of voting intentions, based on the last six published polls, is also mildly worrying for Democrats as it shows basically the same vote shares as in 2018. It is nevertheless better than Biden's predicted presidential vote, probably because smaller left-leaning parties like the Greens are willing to field a presidential candidate even if they bag only 2% of the vote, but can't afford to stand for Congress except in a few select districts in the Pacific West or Atlantic Southeast. A lead of about 8% is anyway enough to preserve the current Democratic majority, even if it won't increase it. Then Democrats surely hope some downballot effect on Election Day will allow them to do better and bag some additional seats, mostly in Southern states. Main targets, consistent with evolving demographics and the presidential polling, are in heavily Hispanic districts in Texas as well as heavily African-American districts in Georgia and North Carolina. Republicans managed to hold some of these seats in 2018 only because minorities usually have a lower turnout, and Democrats hope to overcome this as they did successfully at previous elections in Nevada or Southern California, where they wiped out the last Republican stronghold in legendary Orange County two years ago.

Pundits are generally more optimistic for the Democrats than polls suggest, and agree that this election will deliver a wee batch of Democratic gains in marginal seats. But the absolute worstest case scenario for Democrats could be as close to a tie as an odd number of House seats will allow, something that has not happened since 1930. Oddly Democrats back then had won the popular vote 52.7% to 44.5%, almost the same as current polling predicts, and yet were outnumbered 218-217 by Republicans, though by-elections had turned this into 218-217 for Democrats by the end of 1931. But of course history exactly repeating itself after 90 years is quite a far-fetched prospect. Or isn't it? Then reaching a tie this year when Democrats would still get a majority of the popular vote, even in their worst case scenario, only highlights again the effects of aggressive gerrymandering in Republican states, which mean that Democrats need a 4% lead in the popular vote to bag just a tie in seats. This is obviously a strong incentive for Democrats to devote resources to the State Legislature elections that will be held in 44 states and the gubernatorial elections to be held in 11 states. The impact of these elections goes way beyond local, as who wins them in a majority of states will also have the upper hand in the next redistricting cycle, due to happen next year on the basis of the 2020 Census and be implemented for the 2022 mid-terms. A strong coattails effect from the expected good result in the presidential election could trigger just the sort of domino effect Democrats need in State Legislatures to deliver a less unbalanced playing field two years out. Time will tell.

The $64,000 question now if what impact, if any, current events will have on the campaign and the elections, and of course here I mean George Floyd's murder and the massive violent protests that followed. It is common knowledge that race is a key issue in American politics and even American everyday life, often in an obsessive way that Europeans can never fully comprehend, even in an ethnically diverse UK where we have our own issues with racism. It so happens that Democrats here are catch22ed between a rock and a hard place, as the events have already made Joe Biden's choice of a running mate more complicated, even if he doesn't have to make the final decision until August. On the one hand, Democrats can't afford to alienate minorities, specifically African-Americans, who are massively supporting them and whose turnout is a key to the elections in many states. On the other hand, they can't afford to look or sound weak on violence when major cities are rocked by riots and looting. From distant Europe, Trump might have sounded massively offensive when he tweeted that "when the looting starts, the shooting starts", or utterly ridiculous when he decided to treat Antifa as a terrorist organization, or ventured out of his bunker under live-ammunitioned guard for a Bible-thumping PR stunt. Yet all definitely struck a chord with his Christo-fascist gun-toting fanbase and might even have swayed some law-and-order cultists that might otherwise have ticked the Biden box. Remember this is America, where "shoot first, talk later" is a basic of social life and "go get 'em" is a valid foreign policy option. Things could definitely get much worse before they get marginally better, if ever.

I’m talking about the future, so what if I’m not up on recent history?
I’m prophetic, not infallible
(Morden, Babylon 5: Day Of The Dead, 2262)