Jeremy's Den: A Summer Solstice's Scottish Play

Roll on, deep and dark blue ocean, roll
Ten thousand fleets sweep over thee in vain
Man marks the earth with ruin
But his control stops with the shore.
(Lord Byron, Childe Harold’s Pilgrimage, 1818)

It’s the law of inverse relevance
The less you intend to do about something, the more you keep talking about it
(Sir Arnold Robinson, Yes Minister: Open Government, 1980)

There was a Great Disturbance In the Force from Gretna to Baltasound when James Kelly published Episode One of his new Panelbase poll of Scotland two weeks ago, like billions of souls screaming: WE MADE IT!. Or wasn't there? Well possibly not in Baltasound, where they are likely to understand Independence for Shetland Party when they hear ISP. Anyway let's slow down here before we get carried away to the next galaxy. There was some over-reacting as the headline result was actually not that much of game-changer. The previous Panelbase poll in early May generated headlines going 'Yes and No tied 50-50'. Which was not the case, it was actually 46-46. Same here as we don't actually have Yes winning 52-48, but just Yes ahead 48-45. Without further information, this might have been considered as just some unavoidable random variation, and we had seen 52-48 already, hadn't we? But of course we all had a hunch that there was more to it, and dissection of the poll's other findings proved that there indeed is. First let's just pause for a moment and look at what the trend of IndyRef polling since 2014 says:

But the trendlines here are just one angle, as they factor out the undecideds and the raw data paint a less encouraging picture. In plain English: Yes does not have a majority, yet, because there are still thousands of undecideds. Which indicates a somewhat different direction for the future Yes campaign: don't go after the 2014 Noes who are still Noes, try instead to convince the undecideds. If it works, Yes wins with just as convincing a margin as No enjoyed in 2014. This might prove the path of least resistance for the SNP and the Scottish Government as they have repeatedly shied away from any radical approach to secure additional Yes votes. Going after the undecideds makes even more sense when you factor in where they stand on the key factors that boost the Yes vote. The handling of Covid makes 70% of the undecideds more confident Scotland would be well-governed as an independent country, compared to 59% of all respondents. 68% are less convinced that Scotland would be safer as part of the UK, compared to 59% average. 63% think Scotland would be safer if decision-making powers over lockdown were transferred to the Scottish Government, compared to 58% average. 61% of the undecideds also think Scotland should rejoin the EU, but this is a tricky one for the SNP as there is definitely less enthusiasm for rejoining than there was for remaining. Only 52% overall support it, 10% down on the Remain vote, which kind of vindicates my hunch that other options should be explored after Independence. But that's a wholly different story. The Yes camp also have a lot of food for thought in the demographics and politics of Independence, as depicted by the poll's crosstabs.

I left the undecideds in the chart to be consistent with my earlier point and show the kind of wiggle room the Yes camp have in some categories. Or where they can find the basis for some Blairish triangulation or Cummingsian creatively targeted campaigning. But the Yes movement definitely don't need Toxic Dom's beloved focus groups. They certainly have enough data from publicly available polls and Progress Scotland's research to know what to focus on, and enough grassrooters involved to feel the real mood of the people. Now James Kelly's poll highlights an interesting situation: 35% of Labour voters support Independence while only 51% definitely oppose it. So we have more Labour Yessers now than in any earlier poll and it only confirms how far Labour in Scotland are from really understanding the people's mood, even their own people's. But that's the price to pay when you allow dunces like Jackie Baillie and Ian Murray into positions of power. We all remember that Jeremy Corbyn did not have the fuckiest scoobie what actually happened with Scottish public opinion, but at least he grudgingly admitted that IndyRef2 should happen some time before the melting polar icecap floods Glasgow. But now Keir Starmer sounds worse than a repeat offender with his insistence on a 'radical federalism' that has Gordon Brown's prints all over it and was already a dead duck six years ago. Then, as Napoleon Bonaparte more or less said, never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Especially when this mistake has the potential to make things better for the Yes camp. The current weighted average of IndyRef2 voting intentions is still uncomfortably close to 50-50 and anything that might improve on this is welcome. Even if it includes the third and final death of Labour in Scotland. And this time the electorate might well choose to make sure that what is dead stays dead, to borrow a line from 'Supernatural'.

Then James Kelly saved the best question for last. The one asking people, in his own words, if they think "pro-Independence parties should consider including an outright promise of independence in their manifestos for a future election". Which I guess could be construed as "enough of the waffle-piffling about mandates and referendums and Section 30, let's just start the independence negotiations after the next Holyrood election". Kind of a Plan C, and 49% of the respondents approve it, with 29% opposing it and 22% on the fence. Not saying Nicola Sturgeon would or even should go for it, but Patrick Harvie certainly would, just for the added fun of putting some pressure on the Yellow Bellies. So let's fancy it does happen, and the trickiest part would come The Day After the Holyrood election: negotiating the severance package with the English Government. Which might very well end up like in this hilariously surreal scene in the 2013 reboot of Yes, Prime Minister, when James Hacker enumerates all that an Independent Scotland would 'owe' rUK, from the well-rehearsed population-based share of the UK debt to absorbing all of Royal Bank of Scotland's toxic assets, and the tab skyrockets to a whopping £387 billion. As Hacker says as a conclusion, "it's all just simple arithmetic". Definitely not saying the current English Government would be that harsh and greedy, or have that much imagination for detail. They would probably settle for a mere 300.

Events, the politicians' greatest enemy, they say

Plan till you're blue in the face, then things just happen, events take over

(Francis Urquhart, House Of Cards: To Play The King, 1993)

Some days you're the dog and some days you're the hydrant

(Detective Stella Bonasera, CSI NY: Recycling, 2005)

Panelbase also polled voting intentions for the next Commons election, then one that will never happen because we will of course be independent long before that. Or not. So, for argument's sake, let's say we would be in something of a 2019ish twilight zone that justified holding the European Parliament election: no longer quite in but not yet quite out, so entitled to representation for the few months before we are quite totally out. Here it is appropriate to remember the full sequence of real Scottish polls fielded since the December election. Only four of these so they're quite easy to keep track of. And they show incremental progress for the SNP and a definitely decremental trend for the other parties. Then the last Panelbase poll shows an intriguing phenomenon we hadn't witnessed before: a smallish swing from the Conservatives to Labour. I guess there is a combination of factors at work here. First of course is that the Conservative brand has become too toxic for centrist Unionists to support. Then a number of these same voters might have been seduced by Keir Starmer's masterplan for 'radical federalism', whatever that actually means, and are willing to give it a chance. Not that actually helps Labour in Scotland, as they would need a lot more than a 2% surge to reclaim any seats, let alone meet Ian Murray's dreamland target of 16 seats. But a little hope never hurts, or does it?

Key point here is that the very last poll hints that all the toom tabards could be lyed, drowned and woodchipped, except the MP for Morningside Polo Club who would be that tiny Red Rock amidst the Yellow Sea. Which of course will last only as long as Murray benefits from Tory tactical voting and Tory dark money. And that will certainly end some day when the Conservatives decide to have a go at what is actually a three-way marginal, and have found a better candidate than Miles Briggs. We can also safely bet that, even if the SNP scored an almost full slate, all shades of English Unionist Branch Offices would predictably deny that the SNP have got a mandate for anything because, ye ken, they can't have a mandate unless they bag 60 seats. Anyone ready to stand in Berwick? Then we have further evidence that the Conservatives in Scotland are way past the tipping point to zugzwang, and have only themselves to blame for this. Factor in Jackson Carlaw's lame leadership of the Branch Office and Boris Johnson's inept handling of the Covid-19 crisis and you have it. Even if Nicola Sturgeon's handling of the health emergency had been just average, she would still have the upper hand, and we know she did way better than that even with a few noticeable bumps along the way. But even what could have been PR disasters for the Scottish Government was handled skilfully. When the English Government, under similar circumstances, only compounded incompetence with arrogance and the stupidity of denial. Just insert Calderwood and Cummings here. So we have proof, if we ever needed any, that Boris has the Magic Touch for Scotland. Everything he touches with those blue gloves on turns to yellow. Awesome.

Even if you factor in the worst case scenario for the SNP, based on James Kelly's Panelbase poll, you still get a whopping 54 seats. LibDems would at best save only Alistair Carmichael who, for Boris Johnson's information, does not support Scottish Independence. Conservatives in Scotland would at best save David Duguid, John Lamont and David Mundell as even the Master of Courance is now beyond salvaging. From the Supine Six to the Terrible Three. Guess that would secure Iain Stewart's position as the next Secretary of State for Scotland, as he would be the closest approximation left to 'Proud Scot But...', which definitely sounds more heartfelt when told from Milton Keynes. So when you start doubting this last Panelbase poll because, ye ken, it can't happen because it has never happened, you remember that the SNP bagged an unprecedented 56 seats in 2015 on 50% of the popular vote and a 25% lead over the second party. So why couldn't they bag 58 seats on 51% and a 30% lead? Then you remember the SNP are genetically engineered to totally fuck up every other election campaign, and then you think: now why could they? But we shall not be defeatist, shall we?

Send two hundred wolves against ten thousand sheep, and see what happens

(Thoren Smallwood, A Song Of Fire And Ice: A Clash Of Kings, 1999)

Do you know how to outrun an alligator? Swim faster than the guy next to you.

(Detective Timothy Speedle, CSI: Cross Jurisdictions, 2002)

The best, and certainly the most relevant part of the Panelbase poll is its survey of voting intentions for the next Scottish Parliament election. Not that it said anything we did not know already, like the SNP's complete dominance on both votes. A 32% lead on the constituency vote, up from 24% in 2016. A 29% lead on the list vote, up from 19% in 2016. This only confirms what was already seen in three earlier polls fielded since Jackson Carlaw became leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party in Scotland: the SNP on their way to a fourth term eleven months out, and on vote shares every ruling party worldwide could only dream of after thirteen years in power. Which of course is also the point where the SNP get all woozy with patting themselves on the back and kind of lose focus on the prize. Just remember that five years ago, the last published Holyrood poll had the SNP on 60% of the constituency vote and 50% of the list vote, which would have delivered 74 SNP seats on the voting patterns that prevailed back then, and we all remember how it ended. But let's not be defeatist (again) and just enjoy what our last poll predicts. The numbers are slightly different from what I tweeted after reading James Kelly's post that included rounded vote shares, as we now have Panelbase's full report that lets us have unrounded vote shares. And, as you know, the devil is in the decimal places. Again. So here's my final say: an outright and unprecedented 17-seat majority for the SNP. No more need to indulge the Little Green Men's every whim, just have to deal with the familiar internecine feuds. That, or fights among themselves, in Jim Taggart's immortal words. Happy now?

Let's just say now that I do believe, with all the necessary yet non-Curticean caveats, that the SNP vote will not fall as dramatically as it did between mid-2015 polling and the 2016 election. There are three strong factors at work here that weren't there five years ago, and all definitely boost the SNP: Brexit, Boris Johnson, Jackson Carlaw. And I'm quite sure the SNP's spads have all the oven-ready stunts to keep all three firmly in the public's mind over the next ten-and-a-half months. Quite sure too those in the SNP's Ninth Circle also have enough oven-ready dead-cat material to keep Big Eck out of the news cycles by any means and for as long as necessary. The SNP can of course also rely on Nicola Sturgeon's popularity and credibility being at an unprecedented all-time high, notwithstanding what some of us might consider faults in her leadership. And never mind the redundantly tautological phrasing, 'unprecedented' is definitely the 'in' word these days. I must also confess that one of the best moments in the poll's aftermath was Angus Robertson's shameless, and just one wee smitch heavy-handed, hagiography of Nicola Sturgeon. Certainly has nothing to do with Angus's own plans for 2021, or has it? Never mind, let's just move on and have a look at the full breakdown of seats as predicted by the last poll. Don't be too surprised at the SNP bagging list seats in Central and Glasgow, where they already bag all the constituency seats. This is just the combination of how the PR part of AMS and my model work. I don't allocate the list seats on some sort of universal swing across the nation. I first calculate projected vote shares individually for each region, based on the 2016 vote shares and where national trends are projected to take them. So the SNP on 48.5% of the list vote nationwide takes them to 54% in Central and 53% in Glasgow, enough for one list seat in each on top of the constituencies. The projections also make the case for Both Votes SNP in Glasgow, where the seventh seat would go yellow by just about 700 votes, and also in Highlands and Islands, where the seventh and SNP's second list seat would be won by some 1,000 votes.

As you might expect this new poll triggered a fuckload of tweets about the various ways to fuck the SNP on the list vote because, ye ken, what better way to achieve Independence than fucking the SNP? For the record, no matter how strongly I feel the 'Women Are Men' act should be dumped with all the other toxic stuff to the bottom of Beaufort's Dyke neatly wrapped in concrete, it will still be pretty low on my list of priorities come Election Day and the real issue is securing a stronger pro-Indy majority. Center-stage was of course Colette Walker's Independence for Scotland Party (ISP) which, if you've watched all episodes, weighs about fuck all in current polls. So let's assume again that the ISP is actually a thing and not just one of The National's clickbait stunts and they have a possible baseline vote of 1%, and then gnaw their way up step by step until the have diverted 1/4 of the projected SNP list vote and reach a whopping 13%. And before you object we've been down that road already, of course we have but this is more of a reboot than a replay, as each new poll moves the goalposts a wee smitch and I haven't upgraded my model to deal with such scenarios for nothing. So, up to 5% of the vote, the ISP don't increase the number of pro-Indy seats, with their first two seats snatched away from the SNP. Then on 6%, which is already beyond what they can realistically expect, they increase the pro-Indy majority by one seat, but four out of their projected five come from the SNP or the Greens. Then if I stretch the outer limits of plausibility and credit them with 13%, they bag fifteen seats with 40% of these snatched away from the historic Indy parties and only 60% from the Unionist parties. Not really putting all the 'wasted votes' to optimum use. Or is it?

I guess the results here speak for themselves, as they did twice earlier already. In the likely range of votes, ISP do not get seats on top of the other pro-Indy parties, they get them instead of the other pro-Indy parties. Been there, done that, case closed. But of course the ISP cultists don't have the fuckiest scoobie how AMS actually works as their mantra is "it's so fucking complicated, mate". Well it's not. The basic math at work here is the highest averages method, which is in fact the second simplest after the largest remainders method. But of course whining about the alleged complexity saves you admitting that it does not work the way you claim it does. Then there must be some tinge of madness in Colette Walker's fanbase as they kind of expect that repeating the same moves over and over again, as in repeating the same simulation on each and every poll's data, will lead to different results. They also have a lot in common with climate change deniers. No matter how often you rub their nose in it with the science, which is this case is just basic math anyone can check by typing the right numbers in the right boxes on Election Polling and then clicking 'Submit', they're back at it like the neighbour's shag-deprived mutt humping your leg. Which once again proves that delusion is just like global warming: man-made.

Let us hold fast the mortal sword and, like good men, bestride our downfall'n birthdom

Each new morn, new widows howl, new orphans cry, new sorrows strike Heaven on the face

That it resounds as if it felt with Scotland, and yell'd out like syllable of dolour

(Macduff, Macbeth: Act IV, Scene III)

Jeremy's Den

20/06/2020

A Summer Solstice's Scottish Play - Act IV of MMXX

No comments:

Post a Comment

In Every New Poll A Headache