House Of Cards: To Play The People

There are a few of us who are unwilling to just troop along
A few of us who are clever enough to see that there is more to be done
Than just live the small complacent lives of the great masses, the moron millions
A few of us who desire a more profitable type of government
When you think of it, the competence of totalitarian nations is much higher than ours
They get things done
(Charles Tobin, Alfred Hitchcock’s Saboteur, 1942)

© Ben Jennings, The Guardian, 2020

The few are those men of such intellectual and cultural superiority
That they’re above the traditional moral concepts
Good and evil, right and wrong, were invented for the ordinary average man
The inferior man, because he needs them and what is called “civilisation” is hypocrisy
The lives of inferior beings are unimportant
Moral concepts of good and evil and right and wrong don’t hold for the intellectually superior
I’d hang all incompetents and fools, there are far too many in the world
(Brandon Shaw, Alfred Hitchcock’s Rope, 1948)

There's definitely a continuity in general election polls these days, inasmuch as they're continuously contradicting one another, and thusly we ain't none the wiser after scrolling through the latest batch that says the Conservatives could win the popular vote on anything from fuck all, which would be a considerable setback, to a 6% margin, which would still deliver a slimmed-down majority. Meanwhile Boris has come up with the brilliant idea that the best way to respect the people's will is to make breaking the law the Law Of The Realm. Which will pass Commons no matter how loud the outrage. Let's pause the polls for a wee while and do some basic math. When divisions are called in Commons, 637 votes are counted (650 MPs minus Sinn Féin, the Speaker, Deputy Speakers and Tellers), meaning the actual magic number is 319. The Conservatives account for 362 of these 637, so you would need at least 44 Tory MPs not just grumbling and moaning at the Strangers Bar, but actually voting with the opposition, and all opposition MPs also present and voting en masse against the Government. And we all know the probability of that actually happening is somewhere south of fuck all, as the second reading of the Internal Market Bill has shown, so any bills will pass, even the most fucked up ones. But don't think it won't leave lasting stains even if people are more concerned with the incoming second wave of Covid-19 right now, the one Johnson saw coming two weeks after everybody in Europe started mentioning it. One thing on top of the other certainly lays the groundwork for Winter Of Discontent 2.0. Polls are not quite there yet, even with two recent ones predicting a tie between Conservatives and Labour on 40% each, as the overall trend still has the Conservatives leading by a wee nose.

Some of us had great hopes after Bernard 'Mark-Francois-By-Proxy' Jenkin confessed the European Research Group voted for the Withdrawal Agreement only because Boris Johnson promised them he would renege on it, and minutes later soon-to-be-sacked Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis admitted the English Government would not shy away from breaking international law in a 'specific and limited way', if not in a sensible and convincing way. Then the next day's sensation at PMQs was not Steer Calmer, as Diane Abbott had called him the Sunday before on live TV, grilling Boris Johnson about it, but Keir not grilling Boris about it. Which came as no surprise to those who paid attention and noticed Sly Keir rebranding himself as 'the competent Leaver' in an artfully timed interview with Sky News. So a Classic American TV reference still works, but we've shifted from 'Keirry Mason' to 'Leave It To Leaver'. Perhaps Keir thought it was a good idea not to mention Northern Ireland at PMQs, as it would have opened the door to Boris waffling about the IRA, but it was definitely a letdown as it allowed Lindsay Hoyle, of all people, to steal the show with his crucifixion of Tigger Matty Hancock, who had the sad puppy face of the lad who already knows he's going to be sacked for failing at things he never imagined were his responsibility, like... err... uuh... managing public health operations in England. Instead of devolving them to the Jockey Club. Too bad for Keir he then had to self-isolate, as it was up to Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner to shred Johnson to mincemeat, though one could argue Angela needs one more rehearsal before being fully up to the task. But the looks of despair on Johnson's face when Ed delivered blow after blow were pure gold. Notwithstanding, Keir's performance in the Preferred Prime Minister polling has improved as the penis-shaped trendlines show. Though they are a wee smitch misleading as only YouGov and Opinium have Starmer steadily in the lead, but being the two most frequent pollsters, they definitely set the tone.

Now one of Not-Too-Hardy Keir's problems, and there are many, might be that a lot of voters in The Area Formerly Known As The Red Wall may have detected that Boris is a fucking chancer, but are still willing to give him a second chance at proving he's not the worst First Minister of England ever but just the second worst after Chamberlain. Besides, even the ambiguously Starmer-friendly Guardian has some doubts about what the stripped-down Labour Conference can possibly deliver. Another likely stumbling block is Keir's obsession with sounding more Unionist than the Conservatives, and his unchallenged decision to filter all policy proposals at the Labour Conference on three criteria, the second one being how they contribute to strengthening the Precious Union. The United Kingdom now is beyond dysfunctional and broken, it's somewhere between unfunctional and afunctional, and definitely falling apart. The big question about Scottish Independence, Irish Reunification and Welsh Independence is no longer 'if?' but 'when?', and Scotland will most probably be the first to go her own way. And, to paraphrase Rent Boy, all the huff and puff in the world won't make a fucking difference. That's something Keir will definitely fail to realise as long as he thinks Ian Murray is a reliable source about Scotland's mood and part of the solution, instead of being the problem all by himself. Aye, THE Ian Murray who dropped out of Change UK minutes after the last rehearsal of their Big Announcement on 18 February 2019, the one where Luciana Berger made Chuka Umunna's jaw drop to the floor when she introduced herself as a 'Labour MP'. Of course the antics of the Honourable Member for Morningside Polo Club might be Keir's least worry when Johnson again resorts to his oven-ready populist rhetoric, playing the people against whatever elite he made up over breakfast, and making the oiks believe the world-leading empire can strike back. It might work again and help the Conservatives rebound in polls, or it might not when people will take the full measure of the double whammy of a second major health emergency the English Government is unprepared to deal with, and the most massive economic downturn since the UK defaulted on its foreign debt in 1932. Quite a gamble but I have a wee hunch it will actually be up to the next First Minister of England to deal with all the incoming bùrach. More on this later.

No Tory MP wants to go back and face the local sharks saying he voted with his social conscience
(Patrick Woolton, House Of Cards, 1990)

© Chris Riddell, The Guardian, 2020

We do seem to be learning by trial and error, mostly error
(Doctor Lee Rosen, Alphas: Blind Spot, 2011)

Since my last post we have had another London poll, coupling Westminster voting intentions with those for the mayoral race, and another Scotland poll. Neither was a big surprise and neither shed any new light on the situation as both are roughly duplicates of the ones we had a month ago. Voting intentions and seat projections below, with London on top and Scotland next. In London we still have Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Felicity Buchan unseated by Labour. But Stephen Hammond and Elliot Colburn could save their asses against under-performing LibDems, though just barely. But of course the best part for Labour is the one about the mayoral election. Sadiq Khan would shred Conservative born-again nyaff Shaun Bailey to mincemeat and is predicted just inches away from winning his second term on first preferences only, a feat no directly elected Mayor of London ever achieved. The Scotland poll is again bad news for Oor Doogie Ross as the Conservatives would again be wiped out for the first time since 1997. But last month they had a marginal chance at holding three seats, though not Doogie's own, and now they're down to two at best and again just by the skin of their teeth on a bad day for the SNP. And the worst part for Doogie is of course the Conservatives being relegated to third place in the popular vote by an unexpected Labour resurgence. Though of course Labour are so far behind in their target seats that it would again get them just the Tory-sponsored seat for the People's Republic of Morningside, the one Ian Murray loves so much, at least for the expenses, he wouldn't leave Labour in 2019, though he was really tempted, as he knew he wouldn't have stood any chance as a Change UK or LibDem candidate against an official Labour candidate. Of course Ian did not stay with Labour out of principle as he has none, but you already knew that.

Then we also have had some real new news with a Full Welsh poll by YouGov. Oddly it was conducted between 28 August and 4 September but released for public consumption only on 15 September. Quite possibly YouGov's Conservative shareholders needed all that time to let the true meaning of their findings sink in, and asked nicely for it to be released at an appropriate time, when it would be drowned in all the noise from other quarters. Miss. The paradox here is that the results are actually not that good for Labour who would crawl back to just their 2019 vote share, which was a serious setback compared to 2017 and well below the level of support they enjoyed in Wales during the Blair years. Anyway this is one of these situations where Labour shouldn't look the gift horse in the mouth as it would allow them to reclaim Bridgend and Delyn, two of the six Welsh Red Wall seats they lost to the Conservatives last December. The poll's results are more convincingly bad for the Liberal Democrats, who find themselves too far down the drain to entertain any hope of gaining back a Welsh seat in the foreseeable future. And also for the Conservatives, who would not only lose two seats, but find themselves squarely in the danger zone in another five (Aberconwy, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham). The results are also encouraging for Plaid Cymru, who would skyrocket from 10% to 15% of the popular vote. But the oddities of Welsh electoral geography mean they would bag just one extra seat, Ynys Môn, once a solidly Red seat though Outside The Wall, and now a three-way marginal. Unfortunately even this excellent result would still leave Plaid Cymru's next two target seats, Caerphilly and Llanelli, well outwith reach.

Interestingly, the Senedd part of the YouGov poll is far better for Plaid Cymru who would bag 24% of the constituency vote and 23% of the list vote. Which is also quite close to the level of support for Welsh Independence, which an earlier poll had on 25%. Bear with me for just a wee moment as I digress from the article's main purpose of discussing mostly the Westminster polls. But I just want to stress the situation in Wales, as described by recent polls, has some striking similarities with the situation in Scotland fifteenish years ago. The SNP's surge also started with major gains at the devolved Parliament's elections and a weak support for Independence, and the rest is history. So there is definitely hope for Plaid Cymru to progress first from Labour's only possible choice for a coalition government to second party status, and then to first party and Wales' government while taking the support for Welsh Independence beyond 50%. Don't dismiss this as "can't happen there" just yet. Just consider how many Scots in 2005 would have wagered a fiver on the SNP becoming the governing party two years later and Independence the majority choice fifteen years later. Just sayin'.

My theory is the best so far because it is the only one we have
(Gary Bell, Alphas: The Devil Will Drag You Under, 2012)

© Chris Riddell, The Guardian, 2020

Blessed are they who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed
(Captain Albert Wiles, Alfred Hitchcock’s The Trouble With Harry, 1955)

Despite their predicted successes in London and Wales, the big picture remains unsatisfactory for Labour. With the English Government displaying just the finely tuned mix of incompetence, arrogance and corruption you usually expect to find only in third-rate banana republics or in Washington, D.C. but not in a moderately civilised country, you would have thunk it's Red Carpet on the Stairway to Heaven for Labour. But it isn't. Admittedly it took England 18 years to get rid of the Tories last time aboot, just as it took Chile 17 years to get rid of Thatcher's protégé Pinochet, but what we have now is Starmer doing a pretty good Kinnock 2.0 when what he needs is upgrade to Blair 2.0. I'm not trying to say today's politics are not complex. It would be easier for everyone if it was a clear-cut choice between Ashes and Paradise, but there are more shades of grey here than meet the eye. Unfortunately for Labour, it means public opinion is moving slow and drifting towards them in baby steps. So my Poll'O'Polls for this month includes the last six fielded between the 1st and the 17th of September. Which is quite a long timespan and not really an instant snapshot of public opinion, but blame that on the pollsters who have gone into some sort of part-time activity recently. The super-sample size is 10.667 with a highly theoretical 0.95% margin of error. Most important result is that it shows the Conservatives leading by just a measly 3% UK-wide, and by a not-really-much-better 5.5% in England outside London. Which means the Conservative vote has gone down faster in England than on average since December, and that might open new prospects for Labour, once they come to terms with the basic fact that the battleground is in England and not in the vain search for Scottish seats.

As usual, the models beg to differ somewhat as different algorithms imply different ways to process marginal seats. This is usually more visible when the projected shares of the popular vote are close, as we have here. But this time we are spared the rather confusing situation where some say Johnson would lose his majority by a few seats, while others say he would hold it by an equally wee number of seats. This time every model predicts he would lose it after totally losing it. The alternate extreme scenarios factoring in the marginals should also ring an alarm within the Tory ranks. Their best case scenario is pretty much a repeat 2015 and I guess they all remember how that one ended. More interesting is Labour's best case scenario where there would be a tie in seats. It becomes even more interesting if you do some math on top of that. An hypothetical Conservatives-DUP coalition, if that can still happen now, would bag 286 seats. While a Rainbow Coalition around Labour would bag 299 seats with the SDLP, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Alliance Party on board. Sly Keir could even argue that just Labour and SDLP together would bag four more seats than the Conservatives and that he should be granted the first shot at forming a government. And just don't rule out just yet Keir actually getting the broader coalition up and running. The key point here is that Labour would not need support from the SNP, as the headcount would still be 298 to 286 in Labour's favour if Scotland was independent by then. Which rules out any Project Fear involving the "Keir in Nicola's pocket" narrative, And again makes the point that the winning strategy for Labour is going after weak Tory seats in England and Wales, not tilting at Scottish windmills. Just a friendly advice.   

Of course things might change in the near future as public opinion is highly volatile, and a lot might depend on what happens with the Power Grab Bill, aka the Internal Market Bill, before it comes back to Commons for the third and final reading at the end of November. The English Government have not just driven the thin edge of the wedge between them and legality, them and the international community. They have shoved a king-size crowbar into the crack. The massive irony here is of course that the unelected House of Lords might be the best protection of the rule of law, even with Johnson invoking the Salisbury Convention that probably doesn't even apply here. Of course the Lords' votes don't matter technically as Commons will overturn all their amendments and restore the ideological purity of the original bill. But the main challenge for Johnson, and the most serious threat to his Presidency... oops... sorry.... Premiership, might come from a wholly different direction: massive popular disobedience to further Covid-linked regulations. Not because of a bunch of pound-shop libertarians whining that protection against a contagious and potentially lethal disease is an unacceptable breach of civil liberties. But because of massive loss of confidence in the English Government and all those associated with it, including the scientists who are definitely not immune to criticism over their contradictory and confusing messages over time. So bad PR over resistance in the Lords could be the least of Johnson's worries if he faced resistance from the people all across England and from the devolved governments protecting their constitutional prerogatives. This could only make matters worst at a point where the Conservatives are already predicted to bag their worst performance since the last election. They are projected 63 seats down on the election result and a massive 103 down on their peak performance during Johnson's 'Covid Honeymoon' earlier this year, when millions rallied around the flag without having the fuckiest scoobie about the incoming clusterfucked disaster.

So, with the Conservatives' predicted performance at an even lower point than in the immediate aftermath of Dominic's trip to Durham, we might have reached the moment of truth sooner than expected, when Tory backbenchers decide it's as good a time as any to kick Johnson out of the lifeboat, rather than waiting for him to paddle away after Getting Brexit Overdone. I have a hunch some kind of Withdrawal Agreement for Boris is imminent, if not quite impending, and that it would be more of an injunction that an actual agreement. For a lot of Tory MPs, this would go beyond loyalty, this would be about survival when even Tory devotees in the billionaire-owned fishwrappers can't miss an opportunity to go after Boris. And that might also be the reason why some 'sources at Number Ten' have leaked that Boris intends to stand down anyway early next year, in the vain hope it could soften some of the wannabe Bruti. Or should that be Brutuses? Anyway time is not on Johnson's side here and he will probably have to face a reboot of The Night Of The Long Knives sooner than later. Here enters the New Kid In Town, Wunderkind Rishi Sunak The People's Chancellor, dancing to his own song of ice and fire.

© Steve Bell, The Guardian, 2020

Unlike Boris Johnson, who is the Daenerys Targaryen of Prime Ministers, riding Drogon Cummings to wreak havoc on Queen's Landing, Sunak is more like Westminster's Petyr Baelish (minus the throat-slit-with-his-own-dagger bit), good at using the truth to tell lies. And of course the Conservative PR squad could have a field day for all of eternity bragging that the Conservatives are world-leading at promoting diversity as the first Asian PM would be a Conservative just as the first, and so far only, Jewish PM was a Conservative. You might and probably will argue that Michael Gove is just as likely and credible a candidate, but I think Sleekit is more of an ageing Joffrey Baratheon than the man for all seasons, and especially not fit for the post-Brexit season. Gove is too closely associated with the twists and turns of the Brexit omnishambles and definitely part of the Old World Order, when the Conservatives will need to put on a Brave New Face with enough visibility and popularity. Besides, Sunak is much better armed to take on New New Labour on their own turf, and could become Disraeli 2.0 with the proper balance of modernisation and tradition to revive the Conservatives' chances with the centrist electorate both parties need for a landslide. And I definitely can't see him playing the long game, allowing Gove to prevail and lead the party to an humiliating trainwreck at the next election, and then coming back as the salvator ex machina. Rishi is young enough he can afford to wait, but old enough to know missed opportunities never come back, so he won't wait. Mark my words.

There’s no such thing as a lie, there’s only expedient exaggeration, you should know that

(Roger Thornhill, Alfred Hitchcock’s North By Northwest, 1959)

© Ben Jennings, The Guardian, 2020

Sometimes the shortest distance between two points is a straight line

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity
(Jason Bull and Hanlon’s Razor, Bull: Split Hairs, 2019)

Knowledge is a deadly friend if no one sets the rules
The fate of all mankind I see is in the hands of fools
When every man is torn apart with nightmares and with dreams
Will no one lay the laurel wreath when silence drowns the screams?
Confusion will be my epitaph as I crawl a cracked and broken path

If we make it we can all sit back and laugh but I fear tomorrow I'll be crying
© Robert Fripp, Ian McDonald, Greg Lake, Michael Giles, Peter Sinfield, 1969
This version recorded live on 20 November 2015 at Queen Elizabeth Theatre, Toronto

A Tale Of Two Conventions. Almost.

Try not. Do. Or do not. There is no try.

(Master Yoda, Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back, 1980)

© Bob Weir, John Perry Barlow, 1987

There are only two seasons in Washington, lovers of liberty

Tax season, a shameful time when your nation’s leaders 

Rob you blind for their own amusement and unending sloth 

And election season, a shameful time when your nation’s leaders offer you

Empty platitudes in exchange for your votes and your hard-earned cash

I can smell the change in the air

It smells like hairspray and apple pie and fresh manure like America itself

So let’s rejoice, lovers of liberty, all the leaves are brown but the sun is out and the sky is blue

(Sally Langston, Scandal: Wild Card, 2016)

So it's this time of Election Year when American political parties have had their National Conventions. Or some version of them. As this year they have been mostly covided out and replaced by socially-distanced micro-events and Zoom sessions, which the punditariat will of course punditify about for days without end, just as they have done with the full-fledged conventions of years past. Of course the best moment of the Republican Convention was Donald Trump Junior telling his audience that Joe Biden is Nessie and Loch Ness is a swamp. Which would not have struck American audience as odd, as most of them probably think Loch Ness is an amusement park near London. Then we had the next news cycle totally hijacked by right-wingers outraged at Bette Midler's comments on Melania Trump's speech. Which were indeed unfair as Melania does speak better English than her husband.  Pundits will now keep a close watch on post-Convention polling, awaiting the proverbial Convention bounce that could benefit Trump. The last time the Republicans actually had a Convention bounce was in 2008. when they got Team Blue all sweaty for a few days as John McCain briefly overtook Barack Obama in national polls. Then Sarah Palin spoke and Obama cruised to victory. But this year Trump would need way more than a bouncelet to prevail, as the trend of national polls and the weighted average of the six most recent ones conclusively show Biden ahead by a safe margin, even with a few less good polls recently. And remember this is the USA, so Red is Blue and Blue is Red.

Now Biden's main problem will be to keep the momentum for the next two months and avoid any embarrassing gaffes. He still has a margin of progress in a few states if he wants to upgrade from 'convincing victory' to 'fucking Trump-woodchipping landslide', even if most of the South and Midwest look like lost causes. If you think Trump's core electorate in the backwaters of America, from Appalachia to Terrebonne Parish, are going to desert him because he went campaigning in 'Frorida' before discussing 'Yo-Semites' going on vacation (that's American for holiday) in 'Thighland', just bear in mind half of America can't even spell 'G8', and those who can think it's some sort of car engine. Never forget this is a country where a solid third of voters will never mind being ruled by an illiterate psychopathic moron because they are illiterate psychopathic morons themselves, who still think that Father Knows Best, there would be fewer deaths in school shootings if all the kids carried guns and universal publicly funded healthcare is a plot by Communist reptilian aliens hell-bent on removing God from the American Way Of Life. Or something like that involving France and North Korea. But right now even Trump calling Biden 'Joe Hiden' will misfire as most people are likely to conclude he was just mispronouncing and not trying to make a lame joke.

© Paul Kantner, Marty Balin, 1969

Of course what really matters is what state-level polls say, and how many Electoral Votes (EV) they predict for each candidate. The punditariat are as always punditifyingly cautious but sill lean Biden's way, with the most recent 'pundit consensus' predicting 278 EVs for Biden, 169 EVs for Trumps and 91 tossups (which, as you remember, is American for marginals). This is already enough to take Biden to the White House as 270 EVs are needed, but I think the situation is actually worse for Trump as my own calculations have Biden with a more solid base of 302 EVs to Trump's 111 EVs and 125 possibly going either way. The most likely outcome is Biden winning with a projected 334 EVs and possibly more. Biden still hasn't gained back Iowa and Ohio, two swing states won by Obama and then by Trump but both are extremely close. It says a lot too that several states supposedly safe for Republicans are now close to a tie like Arkansas, Georgia and Texas. So a pro-Biden upset in the last stages of the campaign appears now more likely than a pro-Trump upset, and the map below shows what my calculations say, with thanks to 270ToWin for this and other templates.

Compared to the 2016 result, Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin are predicted to switch from Trump to Biden for a total of 101 EVs. No state this time is predicted to switch from Biden to Trump. Compared to Obama's winning map in 2012, Biden would add North Carolina (which Obama bagged just once in 2008) and Arizona (which Obama never won). But he would lose Iowa and Ohio, both of which Obama bagged in 2008 and 2012. That leaves out just one difference with Obama's 2008 map: Indiana, which Obama won then to everybody's surprise including his own as Democrats had not won it since Johnson in 1964, and before that Roosevelt in 1932 and 1936. The most interesting case here is Arizona, which voted for a Democratic candidate for the last time in 1996. Here the demographics have slowly changed the Democrats' way, with both the Latino population share and the Latino turnout increasing. These are the same trends that made New Mexico first and then Nevada and Southern California turn Blue, including Richard Nixon's home turf in Orange County, the affluent southern suburbs of Los Angeles. And might even switch Texas back to the Democrats for the first time since 1980, probably not at this election but quite possibly at the next one. The current projections have Biden in a very strong position anyway as even his worst case scenario would still have him winning by a convincing margin. What remains to be seen though is the impact of Trump's Project Fear, switching to a hawkish 'law and order' message and calling major unrest in a few cities the 'Biden riots'. It doesn't seem to have switched many voters so far, but of course the effect of deception and lies on swing voters should never be underestimated. 

© Chris Riddell, The Guardian, 2020

The main event since my last post has been of course Joe Biden choosing California Senator Kamala Harris as his running mate. Harris is a clever and yet safe choice for several reasons. The first and obvious one is that she is a woman, only the second time in US history a woman has an actual shot at becoming Vice-President. She is also of Indian and Jamaican ancestry, both her parents were immigrants to the USA in the 1960s and she self-identifies as African-American. Which ticks quite a number of boxes on the Democratic scorecard, though her background is definitely a privileged one, quite far away from the deprived inner cities. Then she has held elected office continuously since 2004, meaning she has been vetted often enough and under scrutiny for long enough to make any unpleasant surprise highly unlikely. In a country that loves nothing more than having all skeletons in the closets dusted off and lined up so they can have a good look at them, it's a safe bet that Republicans will not unearth any smoking turd from Harris's past. But paradoxically the main positive in selecting Harris is that she is ideologically ambiguous enough to be a difficult target for the Trump campaign. They will have a hard time making the 'radical left' label stick to either Biden or Harris (but bear in mind that, by American standards, the SNP would be radical left and Jeremy Corbyn totally off the chart), while the Democrats have plenty of ammunition to fire at Trump and his far-right nutcase of a Vice-President and running mate, Mike Pence (who, by British standards, would still be a far-right nutcase). Ironically the best weapons Trump would have come from disgruntled supporters of Bernie Sanders, but he can't use them as they hit at Biden-Harris for not being radical enough. So my best educated guess now is that Biden will win the Electoral College by at least the same margin Trump had in 2016, and probably by the same margin Obama had in 2012 when the Republican candidate was way saner and had a lot less baggage than Trump.

Hope is like the sun
If you only believe in it when you can see it, you’ll never make it through the night
(Leia Organa, Star Wars: Episode VIII – The Last Jedi, 2017)

© Seamus Jennings, The Guardian, 2020

The day we stop believing democracy can work is the day we lose it
(Queen Jamillia of Naboo, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack Of The Clones, 2002)

© Bob Dylan, 1974

The Senate is a gilded cage, a place of great comfort and wonderful perks

Where you think that you’re making a difference, but you’re not

It’s just you and 99 others grimly reminding yourselves every day

That the only way out of this, the only way to make your mark, is to be President

(Senate Majority Leader Edison Davis, Scandal: Pencils Down, 2016)

The second major battle is for control of the Senate, and the Democrats' prospects also look really good. 33 of the 35 seats up for re-election this year are the same that were up in 2014 when Democrats lost control of the Senate, so we have 23 Republican incumbents to only 12 Democrats. Republicans are clearly on the defence here and Democrats on the offence as several key seats are in states that are predicted to give a majority to Biden at the presidential election. Democrats now have 45 seats and need only 49 to take back control as the two Independent Senators (Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont) caucus with them. Which could be translated into English English as 'take the Democratic whip' if there was anything like a formal whip in the US Senate. But there isn't and Senators have voted outside of party lines multiple times without any consequences, even during the more ideologically polarised last four years. And technically the Democrats actually need only 48 seats as it would lead to a clean 50-50 split. If Joe Biden is elected, Kamala Harris, as Vice-President and ex officio President of the Senate, would have the 101st and tie-breaking vote. There is a distinct possibility of this happening as the current spread of projected seats is 48-53 Democrats and 45-50 Republicans. But polls actually predict 50 Democrats and 48 Republicans when you sort out the marginals, which would avoid any heart-attack-inducing suspense on key votes. And this result has also a direct impact on the United Kingdom as the Senate is constitutionally empowered to ratify international treaties, or not. Including.... aye.... you got it.... a US-UK trade deal. Not that Democrats in charge would necessarily make a bad deal less likely or less threatening to the food industry or the NHS, but there is definitely a slightly-larger-than-fuck-all probability that the worst could be avoided. So here is what we have now, with the grey states indicating no Senate election this year. Projected Democratic gains: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, North Carolina. Projected Republican gain: Alabama which Democrats won by serendipity at a 2017 by-election and don't really expect to hold. 

Democrats are unlikely now to stage an upset in Kansas, though the Republicans' position remains surprisingly weak in a state that has been represented by two Republican senators continuously since 1938. But it says a lot that polls suggest Iowa could kick out their incumbent Republican Senator after just one term and bring back a Democrat, even with presidential polls predicting the state's EVs will go to Trump. Or that 'moderate' Republican Susan Collins, who has an ambiguous record on alternating between opposition and support to Trump, would fight the one election too many and lose her seat after 24 years in the Senate. Another significant gain for the Democrats would be Arizona, both politically and symbolically. The Democratic candidate there is Mark Kelly, a retired Captain in the US Navy and astronaut who flew four Space Shuttle missions, two as Pilot and two as Commander. Kelly is also the husband of Gabrielle Giffords, a former Democratic Representative for the city of Tucson, who retired from politics after being severely wounded in an assassination attempt in 2011 and has since become an icon for the supporters of stronger gun control, which Kelly has also fully embraced during his campaign. Less emotionally charged but probably more politically significant would be a Democratic gain in Georgia. Atlanta, the state capital and largest city, is home to a successful, affluent and well-organised Black community who massively supports the Democrats. While the rural areas, once part of the historic Cotton Belt, are mostly Republican strongholds. Remember this is where Gone With The Wind was set and it was not all fantasy, though of course the Democrats were the evil slaveowners and the Republicans the progressive abolitionists back then. So now we have the perfect mirror image of that, with demographics again vastly favourable to the Democrats. 

It is my experience that senators focus only on pleasing those who fund their campaigns
And they’re in no means scared of forgetting the niceties of democracy in order to get those funds
(Obi-Wan Kenobi, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack Of The Clones, 2002)

© Bob Dylan, 1978

There’s no such thing as a clean campaign, it’s an oxymoron

(Fitzgerald Thomas Grant II, Scandal: A Criminal, A Whore, An Idiot And A Liar, 2013)

Current polling for the House of Representatives is also very favourable to the Democrats, though it is not much different from the 2018 result which was already a very good year as they took back control of the House after eight years of Republican majority. So this year's polls predict Democrats cruising towards a second consecutive victory at the House elections, something that has not happened in twelve years. The trend and the weighted average of the three most recent polls both point to a higher Democratic vote share than in 2006, the midterms of George W. Bush's second term, when they took back the House on 52.3% of the popular vote and 233 seats. Or 2008 when they rode Obama's coattails to 53.2% of the vote and 257 seats. The discrepancies between past results and today's projections show the impact of heavy-handed gerrymandering in states controlled by the Republicans during the redistricting cycle that followed the 2010 census. A rough estimate is that Democrats need a 5% lead in the popular vote nationwide to achieve a tie in seats, and beyond that the dominoes will only fall slowly as Republicans post-2010 mostly avoided the post-2000 dummymandering that cost them dearly in some states in 2006 and 2008.

The weeish swing in the popular vote would only switch a few swing seats from Marginal Red to Marginal Blue. The punditariat's expert opinion says five to ten and my model says seven. Enough anyway to solidify the Democratic majority in the House and turn the elections into the Magic Trifecta result every party wishes and doesn't always get even when they win the White House. And even a Trifecta in a presidential year can be overturned at the next midterms. Clinton, Bush Junior, Obama and Trump have all known this, not to mention all earlier Presidents who suffered the same fate. Now the seat projection is an exact mirror image of the 2010 midterms, when Republican took back the House in the middle of Obama's first term. But at these elections, the last held before the last redistricting, the Republicans needed only 51.7% of the popular vote for their 242 seats, which again illustrates how the post-2010 gerrymandering in Republican states was used to make a victory more difficult for the Democrats. The next redistricting cycle (what would be called a boundary review in the UK) will probably be less controversial than the last two as about a third of the states have now taken it out of hands of the state legislatures and devolved it to an independent commission without political interference. For now we have Democrats cruising to a 50ish-seat majority, give or take. And we can expect a stronger party loyalty in the current ideologically polarised context, with 'centrist' Democrats (who, in British terms, would be the left wing of the Conservatives) much less likely to vote with Republicans to defeat 'progressive' legislation (which, in British terms, would be the Liberal Democrat manifesto, no shit).

What matters most for the Democrats is that even their worst case scenario has them holding their majority in the House. But the bigger the majority, the better it is for the progressive wing of the party as the House has the final say on the federal budget and a stronger Democratic majority makes 'compromise deals' with 'moderate' Republicans less likely here. Another challenge for the Democrats is to take back control of state legislatures they have lost over the last ten years, especially in the now Republican states where redistricting is still under political control and produced obvious gerrymandering in the last cycle. Which is definitely a square-the-circle thing as the states the Democrats need to gain back the most are also the ones most heavily gerrymandered by the Republicans like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina and South Carolina, so a string of uphill battles even if some are projected to turn blue at presidential or senatorial level. Finally the major key to all of this year's elections in how much PAC money (which would be dark money in British terms) each party can inject into their campaigns. The Democrats certainly have an advantage here as unfavourable polling will force the Republicans to divert resources to some states that were supposedly safe for them, and don't look like it now like Texas, Florida, Pennsylvania or Georgia. The larger the state, the more money you need to pour into it and the less you have for competitive states, something Democrats don't really have to worry about as their own safe states like New York, Illinois, most of New England and the Pacific West, definitely look immune to any sort of Republican offensive and could even prove safer than expected. There is even a double-whammy against Republicans here as political advertising is already more expensive in large states with large cities, and the more competitive the state gets, the more the prices rise again and again. Still two months to go before we know how the whole circus ends....

We need a system where the politicians sit down and discuss the problem

Agree what's in the best interest of all the people and then do it
If the people don't agree, well, then they should be made to by someone wise
Might sound an awful lot like a dictatorship but, well, if it works...

(Anakin Skywalker, Star Wars: Episode II – Attack Of The Clones, 2002)

© Bob Weir, Eric Andersen, John Perry Barlow, 1973