House Of Cards: To Play The People

There are a few of us who are unwilling to just troop along
A few of us who are clever enough to see that there is more to be done
Than just live the small complacent lives of the great masses, the moron millions
A few of us who desire a more profitable type of government
When you think of it, the competence of totalitarian nations is much higher than ours
They get things done
(Charles Tobin, Alfred Hitchcock’s Saboteur, 1942)

© Ben Jennings, The Guardian, 2020

The few are those men of such intellectual and cultural superiority
That they’re above the traditional moral concepts
Good and evil, right and wrong, were invented for the ordinary average man
The inferior man, because he needs them and what is called “civilisation” is hypocrisy
The lives of inferior beings are unimportant
Moral concepts of good and evil and right and wrong don’t hold for the intellectually superior
I’d hang all incompetents and fools, there are far too many in the world
(Brandon Shaw, Alfred Hitchcock’s Rope, 1948)

There's definitely a continuity in general election polls these days, inasmuch as they're continuously contradicting one another, and thusly we ain't none the wiser after scrolling through the latest batch that says the Conservatives could win the popular vote on anything from fuck all, which would be a considerable setback, to a 6% margin, which would still deliver a slimmed-down majority. Meanwhile Boris has come up with the brilliant idea that the best way to respect the people's will is to make breaking the law the Law Of The Realm. Which will pass Commons no matter how loud the outrage. Let's pause the polls for a wee while and do some basic math. When divisions are called in Commons, 637 votes are counted (650 MPs minus Sinn Féin, the Speaker, Deputy Speakers and Tellers), meaning the actual magic number is 319. The Conservatives account for 362 of these 637, so you would need at least 44 Tory MPs not just grumbling and moaning at the Strangers Bar, but actually voting with the opposition, and all opposition MPs also present and voting en masse against the Government. And we all know the probability of that actually happening is somewhere south of fuck all, as the second reading of the Internal Market Bill has shown, so any bills will pass, even the most fucked up ones. But don't think it won't leave lasting stains even if people are more concerned with the incoming second wave of Covid-19 right now, the one Johnson saw coming two weeks after everybody in Europe started mentioning it. One thing on top of the other certainly lays the groundwork for Winter Of Discontent 2.0. Polls are not quite there yet, even with two recent ones predicting a tie between Conservatives and Labour on 40% each, as the overall trend still has the Conservatives leading by a wee nose.

Some of us had great hopes after Bernard 'Mark-Francois-By-Proxy' Jenkin confessed the European Research Group voted for the Withdrawal Agreement only because Boris Johnson promised them he would renege on it, and minutes later soon-to-be-sacked Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis admitted the English Government would not shy away from breaking international law in a 'specific and limited way', if not in a sensible and convincing way. Then the next day's sensation at PMQs was not Steer Calmer, as Diane Abbott had called him the Sunday before on live TV, grilling Boris Johnson about it, but Keir not grilling Boris about it. Which came as no surprise to those who paid attention and noticed Sly Keir rebranding himself as 'the competent Leaver' in an artfully timed interview with Sky News. So a Classic American TV reference still works, but we've shifted from 'Keirry Mason' to 'Leave It To Leaver'. Perhaps Keir thought it was a good idea not to mention Northern Ireland at PMQs, as it would have opened the door to Boris waffling about the IRA, but it was definitely a letdown as it allowed Lindsay Hoyle, of all people, to steal the show with his crucifixion of Tigger Matty Hancock, who had the sad puppy face of the lad who already knows he's going to be sacked for failing at things he never imagined were his responsibility, like... err... uuh... managing public health operations in England. Instead of devolving them to the Jockey Club. Too bad for Keir he then had to self-isolate, as it was up to Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner to shred Johnson to mincemeat, though one could argue Angela needs one more rehearsal before being fully up to the task. But the looks of despair on Johnson's face when Ed delivered blow after blow were pure gold. Notwithstanding, Keir's performance in the Preferred Prime Minister polling has improved as the penis-shaped trendlines show. Though they are a wee smitch misleading as only YouGov and Opinium have Starmer steadily in the lead, but being the two most frequent pollsters, they definitely set the tone.

Now one of Not-Too-Hardy Keir's problems, and there are many, might be that a lot of voters in The Area Formerly Known As The Red Wall may have detected that Boris is a fucking chancer, but are still willing to give him a second chance at proving he's not the worst First Minister of England ever but just the second worst after Chamberlain. Besides, even the ambiguously Starmer-friendly Guardian has some doubts about what the stripped-down Labour Conference can possibly deliver. Another likely stumbling block is Keir's obsession with sounding more Unionist than the Conservatives, and his unchallenged decision to filter all policy proposals at the Labour Conference on three criteria, the second one being how they contribute to strengthening the Precious Union. The United Kingdom now is beyond dysfunctional and broken, it's somewhere between unfunctional and afunctional, and definitely falling apart. The big question about Scottish Independence, Irish Reunification and Welsh Independence is no longer 'if?' but 'when?', and Scotland will most probably be the first to go her own way. And, to paraphrase Rent Boy, all the huff and puff in the world won't make a fucking difference. That's something Keir will definitely fail to realise as long as he thinks Ian Murray is a reliable source about Scotland's mood and part of the solution, instead of being the problem all by himself. Aye, THE Ian Murray who dropped out of Change UK minutes after the last rehearsal of their Big Announcement on 18 February 2019, the one where Luciana Berger made Chuka Umunna's jaw drop to the floor when she introduced herself as a 'Labour MP'. Of course the antics of the Honourable Member for Morningside Polo Club might be Keir's least worry when Johnson again resorts to his oven-ready populist rhetoric, playing the people against whatever elite he made up over breakfast, and making the oiks believe the world-leading empire can strike back. It might work again and help the Conservatives rebound in polls, or it might not when people will take the full measure of the double whammy of a second major health emergency the English Government is unprepared to deal with, and the most massive economic downturn since the UK defaulted on its foreign debt in 1932. Quite a gamble but I have a wee hunch it will actually be up to the next First Minister of England to deal with all the incoming bùrach. More on this later.

No Tory MP wants to go back and face the local sharks saying he voted with his social conscience
(Patrick Woolton, House Of Cards, 1990)

© Chris Riddell, The Guardian, 2020

We do seem to be learning by trial and error, mostly error
(Doctor Lee Rosen, Alphas: Blind Spot, 2011)

Since my last post we have had another London poll, coupling Westminster voting intentions with those for the mayoral race, and another Scotland poll. Neither was a big surprise and neither shed any new light on the situation as both are roughly duplicates of the ones we had a month ago. Voting intentions and seat projections below, with London on top and Scotland next. In London we still have Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and Felicity Buchan unseated by Labour. But Stephen Hammond and Elliot Colburn could save their asses against under-performing LibDems, though just barely. But of course the best part for Labour is the one about the mayoral election. Sadiq Khan would shred Conservative born-again nyaff Shaun Bailey to mincemeat and is predicted just inches away from winning his second term on first preferences only, a feat no directly elected Mayor of London ever achieved. The Scotland poll is again bad news for Oor Doogie Ross as the Conservatives would again be wiped out for the first time since 1997. But last month they had a marginal chance at holding three seats, though not Doogie's own, and now they're down to two at best and again just by the skin of their teeth on a bad day for the SNP. And the worst part for Doogie is of course the Conservatives being relegated to third place in the popular vote by an unexpected Labour resurgence. Though of course Labour are so far behind in their target seats that it would again get them just the Tory-sponsored seat for the People's Republic of Morningside, the one Ian Murray loves so much, at least for the expenses, he wouldn't leave Labour in 2019, though he was really tempted, as he knew he wouldn't have stood any chance as a Change UK or LibDem candidate against an official Labour candidate. Of course Ian did not stay with Labour out of principle as he has none, but you already knew that.

Then we also have had some real new news with a Full Welsh poll by YouGov. Oddly it was conducted between 28 August and 4 September but released for public consumption only on 15 September. Quite possibly YouGov's Conservative shareholders needed all that time to let the true meaning of their findings sink in, and asked nicely for it to be released at an appropriate time, when it would be drowned in all the noise from other quarters. Miss. The paradox here is that the results are actually not that good for Labour who would crawl back to just their 2019 vote share, which was a serious setback compared to 2017 and well below the level of support they enjoyed in Wales during the Blair years. Anyway this is one of these situations where Labour shouldn't look the gift horse in the mouth as it would allow them to reclaim Bridgend and Delyn, two of the six Welsh Red Wall seats they lost to the Conservatives last December. The poll's results are more convincingly bad for the Liberal Democrats, who find themselves too far down the drain to entertain any hope of gaining back a Welsh seat in the foreseeable future. And also for the Conservatives, who would not only lose two seats, but find themselves squarely in the danger zone in another five (Aberconwy, Clwyd South, Vale of Clwyd, Vale of Glamorgan, Wrexham). The results are also encouraging for Plaid Cymru, who would skyrocket from 10% to 15% of the popular vote. But the oddities of Welsh electoral geography mean they would bag just one extra seat, Ynys Môn, once a solidly Red seat though Outside The Wall, and now a three-way marginal. Unfortunately even this excellent result would still leave Plaid Cymru's next two target seats, Caerphilly and Llanelli, well outwith reach.

Interestingly, the Senedd part of the YouGov poll is far better for Plaid Cymru who would bag 24% of the constituency vote and 23% of the list vote. Which is also quite close to the level of support for Welsh Independence, which an earlier poll had on 25%. Bear with me for just a wee moment as I digress from the article's main purpose of discussing mostly the Westminster polls. But I just want to stress the situation in Wales, as described by recent polls, has some striking similarities with the situation in Scotland fifteenish years ago. The SNP's surge also started with major gains at the devolved Parliament's elections and a weak support for Independence, and the rest is history. So there is definitely hope for Plaid Cymru to progress first from Labour's only possible choice for a coalition government to second party status, and then to first party and Wales' government while taking the support for Welsh Independence beyond 50%. Don't dismiss this as "can't happen there" just yet. Just consider how many Scots in 2005 would have wagered a fiver on the SNP becoming the governing party two years later and Independence the majority choice fifteen years later. Just sayin'.

My theory is the best so far because it is the only one we have
(Gary Bell, Alphas: The Devil Will Drag You Under, 2012)

© Chris Riddell, The Guardian, 2020

Blessed are they who expect nothing, for they shall not be disappointed
(Captain Albert Wiles, Alfred Hitchcock’s The Trouble With Harry, 1955)

Despite their predicted successes in London and Wales, the big picture remains unsatisfactory for Labour. With the English Government displaying just the finely tuned mix of incompetence, arrogance and corruption you usually expect to find only in third-rate banana republics or in Washington, D.C. but not in a moderately civilised country, you would have thunk it's Red Carpet on the Stairway to Heaven for Labour. But it isn't. Admittedly it took England 18 years to get rid of the Tories last time aboot, just as it took Chile 17 years to get rid of Thatcher's protégé Pinochet, but what we have now is Starmer doing a pretty good Kinnock 2.0 when what he needs is upgrade to Blair 2.0. I'm not trying to say today's politics are not complex. It would be easier for everyone if it was a clear-cut choice between Ashes and Paradise, but there are more shades of grey here than meet the eye. Unfortunately for Labour, it means public opinion is moving slow and drifting towards them in baby steps. So my Poll'O'Polls for this month includes the last six fielded between the 1st and the 17th of September. Which is quite a long timespan and not really an instant snapshot of public opinion, but blame that on the pollsters who have gone into some sort of part-time activity recently. The super-sample size is 10.667 with a highly theoretical 0.95% margin of error. Most important result is that it shows the Conservatives leading by just a measly 3% UK-wide, and by a not-really-much-better 5.5% in England outside London. Which means the Conservative vote has gone down faster in England than on average since December, and that might open new prospects for Labour, once they come to terms with the basic fact that the battleground is in England and not in the vain search for Scottish seats.

As usual, the models beg to differ somewhat as different algorithms imply different ways to process marginal seats. This is usually more visible when the projected shares of the popular vote are close, as we have here. But this time we are spared the rather confusing situation where some say Johnson would lose his majority by a few seats, while others say he would hold it by an equally wee number of seats. This time every model predicts he would lose it after totally losing it. The alternate extreme scenarios factoring in the marginals should also ring an alarm within the Tory ranks. Their best case scenario is pretty much a repeat 2015 and I guess they all remember how that one ended. More interesting is Labour's best case scenario where there would be a tie in seats. It becomes even more interesting if you do some math on top of that. An hypothetical Conservatives-DUP coalition, if that can still happen now, would bag 286 seats. While a Rainbow Coalition around Labour would bag 299 seats with the SDLP, the Greens, the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Alliance Party on board. Sly Keir could even argue that just Labour and SDLP together would bag four more seats than the Conservatives and that he should be granted the first shot at forming a government. And just don't rule out just yet Keir actually getting the broader coalition up and running. The key point here is that Labour would not need support from the SNP, as the headcount would still be 298 to 286 in Labour's favour if Scotland was independent by then. Which rules out any Project Fear involving the "Keir in Nicola's pocket" narrative, And again makes the point that the winning strategy for Labour is going after weak Tory seats in England and Wales, not tilting at Scottish windmills. Just a friendly advice.   

Of course things might change in the near future as public opinion is highly volatile, and a lot might depend on what happens with the Power Grab Bill, aka the Internal Market Bill, before it comes back to Commons for the third and final reading at the end of November. The English Government have not just driven the thin edge of the wedge between them and legality, them and the international community. They have shoved a king-size crowbar into the crack. The massive irony here is of course that the unelected House of Lords might be the best protection of the rule of law, even with Johnson invoking the Salisbury Convention that probably doesn't even apply here. Of course the Lords' votes don't matter technically as Commons will overturn all their amendments and restore the ideological purity of the original bill. But the main challenge for Johnson, and the most serious threat to his Presidency... oops... sorry.... Premiership, might come from a wholly different direction: massive popular disobedience to further Covid-linked regulations. Not because of a bunch of pound-shop libertarians whining that protection against a contagious and potentially lethal disease is an unacceptable breach of civil liberties. But because of massive loss of confidence in the English Government and all those associated with it, including the scientists who are definitely not immune to criticism over their contradictory and confusing messages over time. So bad PR over resistance in the Lords could be the least of Johnson's worries if he faced resistance from the people all across England and from the devolved governments protecting their constitutional prerogatives. This could only make matters worst at a point where the Conservatives are already predicted to bag their worst performance since the last election. They are projected 63 seats down on the election result and a massive 103 down on their peak performance during Johnson's 'Covid Honeymoon' earlier this year, when millions rallied around the flag without having the fuckiest scoobie about the incoming clusterfucked disaster.

So, with the Conservatives' predicted performance at an even lower point than in the immediate aftermath of Dominic's trip to Durham, we might have reached the moment of truth sooner than expected, when Tory backbenchers decide it's as good a time as any to kick Johnson out of the lifeboat, rather than waiting for him to paddle away after Getting Brexit Overdone. I have a hunch some kind of Withdrawal Agreement for Boris is imminent, if not quite impending, and that it would be more of an injunction that an actual agreement. For a lot of Tory MPs, this would go beyond loyalty, this would be about survival when even Tory devotees in the billionaire-owned fishwrappers can't miss an opportunity to go after Boris. And that might also be the reason why some 'sources at Number Ten' have leaked that Boris intends to stand down anyway early next year, in the vain hope it could soften some of the wannabe Bruti. Or should that be Brutuses? Anyway time is not on Johnson's side here and he will probably have to face a reboot of The Night Of The Long Knives sooner than later. Here enters the New Kid In Town, Wunderkind Rishi Sunak The People's Chancellor, dancing to his own song of ice and fire.

© Steve Bell, The Guardian, 2020

Unlike Boris Johnson, who is the Daenerys Targaryen of Prime Ministers, riding Drogon Cummings to wreak havoc on Queen's Landing, Sunak is more like Westminster's Petyr Baelish (minus the throat-slit-with-his-own-dagger bit), good at using the truth to tell lies. And of course the Conservative PR squad could have a field day for all of eternity bragging that the Conservatives are world-leading at promoting diversity as the first Asian PM would be a Conservative just as the first, and so far only, Jewish PM was a Conservative. You might and probably will argue that Michael Gove is just as likely and credible a candidate, but I think Sleekit is more of an ageing Joffrey Baratheon than the man for all seasons, and especially not fit for the post-Brexit season. Gove is too closely associated with the twists and turns of the Brexit omnishambles and definitely part of the Old World Order, when the Conservatives will need to put on a Brave New Face with enough visibility and popularity. Besides, Sunak is much better armed to take on New New Labour on their own turf, and could become Disraeli 2.0 with the proper balance of modernisation and tradition to revive the Conservatives' chances with the centrist electorate both parties need for a landslide. And I definitely can't see him playing the long game, allowing Gove to prevail and lead the party to an humiliating trainwreck at the next election, and then coming back as the salvator ex machina. Rishi is young enough he can afford to wait, but old enough to know missed opportunities never come back, so he won't wait. Mark my words.

There’s no such thing as a lie, there’s only expedient exaggeration, you should know that

(Roger Thornhill, Alfred Hitchcock’s North By Northwest, 1959)

© Ben Jennings, The Guardian, 2020

Sometimes the shortest distance between two points is a straight line

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity
(Jason Bull and Hanlon’s Razor, Bull: Split Hairs, 2019)

Knowledge is a deadly friend if no one sets the rules
The fate of all mankind I see is in the hands of fools
When every man is torn apart with nightmares and with dreams
Will no one lay the laurel wreath when silence drowns the screams?
Confusion will be my epitaph as I crawl a cracked and broken path

If we make it we can all sit back and laugh but I fear tomorrow I'll be crying
© Robert Fripp, Ian McDonald, Greg Lake, Michael Giles, Peter Sinfield, 1969
This version recorded live on 20 November 2015 at Queen Elizabeth Theatre, Toronto