© Bruce Hornsby, 1986
But after a couple of bevvies, we become maudlin romantics.
(Willy Kinross, Lovejoy: The Colour Of Mary, 1993)
Since the December snap election, we have become accustomed to a monthly dose of Scottish polling, with thirteen IdyRef2 polls, ten Holyrood polls and seven Westminster polls conducted in 2020 already. This is just the beginning as we can expect weekly doses shortly, probably after everybody has recovered from the Hogmanay hangovers. All these polls have delivered a continuously favorable trend both for Yes to Independence and for the SNP. But there are also many reasons why the SNP should stay alert and not indulge in the sort of complacency that undid the SNP majority in 2016 and delivered some unexpected upsets in 2017. The Holyrood election is still seven months away and the second Independence referendum... err... uhhh... let's settle on 'some time later' for now. Of course the overall trend of Independence polling is now strongly favourable to Yes, but we've seen support for Yes nosedive already, not surprisingly because of some SNP fuckup that could still happen again. There is one clear way out of this: the SNP conference supporting the 'Plan B motion' proposed by Angus MacNeil and Chris McEleny. We know that the Unionists need only one No vote to defeat Nicola Sturgeon's Plan A: Boris Johnson's, and that vote has already been cast. So the SNP definitely do need a Plan B, even if that infuriates Serial Blocker Pipe'N'Slippers Wishart. There is no doubt Scottish Independence is now on the winning side, as Yes has come to be dubbed 'the default option' by some pundits. The arguments against Independence become weaker by the day and will be further weakened by the Full Brexit, and right now Boris Johnson is unable to make a case for the Union when faced with the reality of his government's incompetence. It is quite revealing that the last Attack Of The Yoons is not targeting the drive to Independence as such, but the very foundations of devolution. Fortunately the Internal Market Bill is likely to be challenged in British courts now that the EU has threatened legal action of their own. So now is not the time for the SNP to procrasturbate again and again. Only decisive action on their part can strengthen the trend of polls that show a strong and unprecedented shift towards Yes.
Then I fear that SNP HQ is going for some smoke-and-mirrors game and will do all they can to have Plan B rejected by the conference. Which would be a dick move, especially as more and more voice suspicion about the party's actual commitment to Independence, after it emerged that some in the party's NEC are actually content with devolution. There is also a truckload of circumstantial evidence that some SNP MPs feel really comfy aboard the Westminster gravy train and would be reluctant to do anything that could jeopardise their position there, which can only fuel doubt in many people's minds. Of course I am ready to be on the optimistic side, as nine of the thirteen IndyRef polls held this year have Yes ahead, including a continuous winning streak in the seven most recent ones, so this might be an incentive for SNP HQ to act more boldly and more swiftly. The weighted average of the last four shows a convincing Yes lead, though not quite completely overturning the 2014 result just yet, but only after undecideds are counted out. It's also worth remembering that only one poll actually delivered an outright majority for Yes before undecideds were factored out, and that the number of undecideds has doubled over the last six months. So I can only repeat what I already said: the best strategy is to go after the undecideds rather than after the 2014 Noes who are still hypothetical 'soft Noes' today. Just saying, and oddly now Angus Robertson agrees with me. Then Douglas Ross' bizarre outburst at the Zoomed Conservative Conference might help more than you imagine. If even the Tory Branch Office Manager for Scotland says that English Unionists don't actually give a rat's fuck about the Union, it may be one of those light-bulb 'what the fuck?' moments for some undecideds and switch them to a 'soft Yes' next time somebody polls them.
So now the big question is: what Scottish Labour will say next year about IndyRef2. And don't tell me they will do as Keir Starmer says, as I would ask 'which Starmer?'. So far he decided he would allow policies into the Labour manifesto only if they contribute to strengthening the union, strongly opposed holding IndyRef2, said that the SNP winning the next Holyrood election will give them a mandate to hold it, and that the issue 'needed looking into'. Just wait until the campaign starts and Sly Keir will have more U-turns on this than Boris Johnson on Covid regulations, and more positions on it than the SNP has mandates. And by the time he's sorted it out, over 50% of Labour voters in Scotland will also be Yes voters, only boosted by STUC's support for holding IndyRef2 as an act of resistance to Boris Johnson's Power Grab Bill. But of course Not-So-Hardy Keir always zigzags with barristerish dignity and no comical side-effect, unlike Ed Davey when he lectures Scots on how to secure a mandate for Independence, which is a bit like the lamppost trying to teach the dog to pee. Then of course the most serious threat to the Yes Camp is now the Dream Team of Neil Oliver and Kevin Hague, ready to unleash a whole shitload of blue-only Excel charts on an unsuspecting Scotland. No shit. Would I pull your leg over such clear and imminent danger? But of course the SNP might also find it clever to adopt a more Cummingsian data-based approach to targeted campaigning. Coatbridge Analytica, anyone?
Where do I belong? Where do I fit? Who are my people? Where do my loyalties lie?
We all choose our tribe, it’s that need to belong, to live within boundaries
Cause it’s scary on the outside, on the fringes.
Some labels are forced on us, they mark us and set us apart till we’re like ghosts
Just drifting through other peoples’ lives, but only if we let the labels hold.
You can piss your whole life away trying out who you might be.
It’s when you’ve worked out who you are that you can really start to live.
(John Mitchell, Being Human: Episode Four, 2009)
© Roderick MacDonald, Calum MacDonald, 1987
When the carpets start leaving the bedroom, stay clear of the… um…
Removal men? Husbands? Parquet floor? Well, whatever…
(Eric Catchpole and Tinker Dill, Lovejoy: Loveknots, 1992)
Survation's last big tent poll also surveyed the Commons voting intentions, and I have already mentioned and discussed this part in my last article about Westminster polling. So now let's have a look at what the seven Scottish polls conducted this year have to say, and how they would translate into seats. I don't rule out a minimal Conservative revival all over the UK if Boris Johnson is kicked out in a very Thatcherite and ruthless way early next year, and Rishi Sunak is anointed as the next First Minister of England. Keir Starmer and Labour HQ obviously see this as a plausible scenario and have started targeting 'Brand Rishi' accordingly. If this happens, it would certainly have some fallout in Scotland. Just remember the PR around Ruth Davidson and how it revived the Conservatives, and picture this to the power of a-lot, centered around Rishi as The People's PM, and Oor Doogie Ross relegated to the sidelines he is so familiar with. The very last poll should also ring an alarm at SNP HQ, as it shows the SNP down 3% on the previous poll and these 'lost votes' obviously going to Labour who would come back to second place by a nose. Bear in mind too that the voting patterns inherited from the 2019 election mean that the SNP don't even need a majority of the popular vote to bag 55 seats or above. So even a relatively underwhelming performance, compared to current polls, would still deliver a massive majority of seats and strengthen the PR about 'yet another mandate', no matter how many are already collecting dust on the highest shelf at Bute House. As long as it is not too underwhelming, and of course we're not there yet. But SNP HQ should stay alert and remember that complacency always come with a high price. Consider yourselves warned.
So, for now at least, Ian Murray would again be the sole survivor of all Unionist MPs after another SNP tsunami. The same Ian Murray who reneged at the last minute on his pledge to join the British Union of Macronists as it would have endangered his position as MP for Morningside Polo Club, and cut him off from both fat expenses claims and Tory dark money. Now Ian is probably firmly entrenched as a New New Labour enthusiast, no matter what the SNP throw at him, and a further Labour surge might put a few other SNP seats in jeopardy. Neale Hanvey in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath is probably immune to a challenge if he stands as a bona fide SNP candidate with full support from SNP HQ. But Labour may find it a good idea to stage a full-blown attack against Kenny MacAskill in East Lothian. Kenny's maverick ways, though they were to be expected, have definitely not made him a favourite son in Nicola Sturgeon's eyes and those of her Ninth Circle. Don't rule out them triggering a selection challenge from a more compliant candidate and, if that fails, offering only lukewarm support that could endanger Kenny. Labour might also choose to campaign strongly in seats that were once part of their heartlands, and where they overperformed in 2019. First obvious choice is Glasgow North East, Willie Bain's seat in the olden days, and where Paul Sweeney still bagged almost 40% of the vote amidst Labour's December trainwreck. Next in line would be.... come on.... try a wild guess.... aye, you got it... Rutherglen and Hamilton West. Which might turn into a suspense story long before the next general election if Margaret Ferrier 'does the right thing', as the saying goes, and resigns her seat after her Cummingsian Homecoming that made her the SNPBad Icon Of The Week. I must confess I have mixed feelings here. On one hand, once a bit of the dust had settled down, I found myself ready to lend an understanding, if not wholly sympathetic, ear to Kevin McKenna's take on the situation. On the other hand, one wrong can't make another wrong right or be used as an ex post facto excuse for it, and I still think Margaret should resign without waiting for a recall petition that would be an even more hurtful career-ender, especially now that her constituency association has urged her to do just that. So let's just try and see how an hypothetical by-election could turn out, once the Conservatives find out that Rutherglen and Hamilton are not in Glasgow, no matter what it looks like from Ettrick. Some numbers first and full decoding after the break.
Here you first have the results of the last five elections, that is all held on the current boundaries. Then a projected result for the next general election, based on the national results from the Survation poll conducted 2-7 September. Finally two hypotheticals of what could happen if a by-election was held in the coming weeks. Just a reminder of how my projection model works: it is not based on uniform swing but a mix of 70% uniform swing and 30% proportional swing, as described on this Canadian site. I have also tweaked it to specify which candidates would stand in each constituency. Which I used here to rule out UKIP at the next election, and hypothetically reallocate half their potential votes to the Conservatives. Which is why my 2024 projection is different from what you would get from a basic calculation on uniform swing with the same candidates as the last time. For the record, Electoral Calculus predict it now as 50.0% SNP, 34.2% Labour and 10.7% Conservatives; and Flavible as 47-51% SNP, 34-37% Labour and 12-13% Conservatives. Conclusion: the SNP are highly unlikely to do as well in this constituency as in 2015, even if they do better nationally, and Labour are still a force to reckon with. Which says nothing about a possible by-election, which could deliver two scenarios, both including a significant drop in turnout and tactical voting for Labour. Which could result in a very close result if the SNP select a strong enough candidate to hold the seat by the hair of their teeth. Or you can have the SNP going down to their 2017 level of support while Labour go back up to their 2015 result and take back the seat. I think this second option is far from unlikely and is within the range of possibilities, and even quite plausible. Obviously Labour have done their homework and juggled with the numbers too, as Sly Keir appears confident they can win this one. Conclusion: nobody has the fuckiest scoobie how this would turn out and all we can do is random guesses. But, if this actually happens, expect it to be a tough one for the SNP. And if they lose, they will blame Margaret Ferrier for it, just as they blamed Michelle Thomson for the loss of one Holyrood seat and one Westminster seat in Edinburgh.
Every disaster is a photo opportunity in disguise
(Francis Urquhart, House Of Cards: To Play The King, 1993)
© Roderick MacDonald, Calum MacDonald, 1987
I believe in you, I just don’t believe in this version of you.
(Michelle Davis, The Stray, 2017)
Finally Survation also surveyed voting intentions for the next Scottish Parliament election and the results are a mixed bag for the SNP. Bottom line, or headline depending on your perspective, is that this poll would deliver a 25-seat majority for the pro-Independence camp, or a 9-seat majority for the SNP alone, achieved this time on the constituencies only. The SNP's constituency vote, up 6% on the 2016 election, is obviously a major success even if earlier polls predicted they would do better. But the list vote, level with the 2016 result, should trigger some alarms at Gordon Lamb House. Clearly the 'Both Votes SNP' talking point does not work and the gap between their constituency and their list votes has more than doubled since the 2016 election, a situation most of the earlier polls did not predict. Unsurprisingly, the ongoing debate about the wisdom of supporting alt-Yes regional lists, or lack thereof, has again become more heated. Which is exactly what you can expect after a poll predicting the SNP would bag fuck all list seats despite again bagging 1 million 'wasted votes', give or take. This time I won't even bother trying alternate scenarios including various levels of support for alt-Yes lists, but I will shed a light of what the exact opposite would deliver. With 'Both Votes SNP' across all regions, my model says that the SNP would win six list seats: one each snatched from the LibDems and the Conservatives, four from the Greens. The math usually don't lie, except when they do, so I can just ask you to trust me that 'Both Votes SNP' would actually increase the pro-Independence majority. Whether achieving this mostly by undermining the Greens is a blessing or a curse is just a matter of opinion, and you know which side I'm on on this one.
For some unfathomable reason, Nicola Sturgeon chose last month to revive one of many SNP Civil Wars by taking on 'cybernat keyboard warriors' and offering unquestioning support to Rhiannon Spear on Twitter. Not surprisingly The National tell only one side of the story here, forgetting the 400ish replies to that last tweet, most of them reminding the party's leader of the obnoxious and degrading smear campaigns waged by the SNP's Woko Cult against bona fide Yessers whose sole fault is disagreeing with a fringe extremist agenda that the party has come to embrace. There is some some sort of deluded defiance here as the Scottish Government announced plans to bring back the unpopular GRA reform just days after the English Government dropped the English version and rolled back the use of 'educational' material promoting the extreme version of the Woko ideology. Then Nicola has obviously underestimated the amount of negative coverage this would trigger, especially about the part where she implicitly endorses a double standard on online abuse, depending on who is the target: one rule for those who support her and another for those who don't. Nicola can't avoid criticism too on the time and energy spent on attempting to deliver on divisive side issues, while Holyrood could have worked on more pressing and popular issues like full use of the devolved part of fiscal powers, land reform, stronger incentives for the transition to a green economy in deprived rural areas and post-industrial cities, etc.. I also have a hunch that Peter Murrell pretty much admitting to foul play in the handling of the Alex Salmond case and Nicola's own not too convincing submission about it won't help, and neither will her account of what she does remember and what she does not of her talks with Big Eck two years ago. Now there's a good angle of attack handed to the Unionists on a silver platter. But surely some damage has already been done and I can only advise SNP HQ to not just gloat at each poll predicting a win at the next election, but also to factor in the whole sequence of seat projections from all the Holyrood polls fielded this year. Which is not all milk and honey to their ears recently.
In this context, Martin Keatings announcing he intends to stand for Alliance For Independence in the Mid-Scotland and Fife region is not good news for the SNP. Martin has gained name recognition with his 'People's Action On Section 30' crowdfunder, which uncoincidentally pursues the same goals as the SNP's 'Plan B Motion' I mentioned earlier. A wee smitch of math helps here too: Mid and Fife has the de facto lowest threshold for a list seat, on 5.6% of votes cast. So Martin would need about 16k votes to snatch the seventh list seat there, or 14% of the predicted SNP list vote, and the added bonus is that he would take that seat from the LibDems. I'm not saying Martin could be 2021's Margo MacDonald, but he surely looks like a serious contender for the analogy. Then we heard the very sad news of Jo Swinson's passing.... on a Holyrood candidacy. I guess that, after a thorough study of the electorate, she found out she had as many chances of becoming First Minister if she did not stand as she had if she stood. Fuck all. And of course not standing saves her the bother of campaigning and the humiliation of having to watch somebody else deliver a victory speech at the proclamation. Again. Of course this is incredibly sad news for the SNP as the probability of the LibDems holding North East Fife has now significantly increased. There is another interesting finding in the Survation poll: Labour are up again, gaining 6% on the constituency vote and 4% on the list vote, compared to their all-time low two months ago. Which puts them just one seat away from the Conservatives and two down on the 2016 result, a much better performance than the Tories. A new scenario, in which Labour come back from the grave to become the second party again, is not as far-fetched as some may think and shouldn't be dismissed with condescending irony. Oor Doogie Ross could be of considerable help here, seeing how he has made it a habit of falling flat on his face after making a complete arse of himself, no matter how anatomically challenging that might sound. Now there would be some delicious irony if Labour could dig themselves out of their hole by becoming both the acceptable face of Unionism and a credible center-left alternative to the SNP for a number of Yes-supporting voters, proving the common wisdom wrong that says you can't have it both ways.
How do you make a rat look less threatening? You put it next to a shark.
(Nick Cutler, Being Human: Making History, 2012)
© Roderick MacDonald, Calum MacDonald, 1987
