Jeremy's Den: From The Circle Jerk To The Circular Firing Squad

Will humanity ever be more than this, glimpsing an eye-rendingly complex

Universe and shying away baffled, afraid, trembling and myopic?

(Victoria Coren-Mitchell)

My brain is incredibly quick but there’s nothing in it, that’s my challenge

(Rory Reid)

Not so long ago, even if it seems like a lifetime ago now, the Conservative Party under Boris Johnson's rule looked like a Band Of Brothers heading for the sunlit uplands of the Post-Brexit Dream. Or rather like a circle jerk, as most of them are wankers. This was just two years ago, when polls credited the Conservatives with 55% of the popular vote and double Labour's vote share. Those were the days... but where have all the good times gone now? The overlapping of Operation Save Big Dog, Operation Rinka and the Pork Pie Plot have turned the game into a circular firing squad, even more so with a juicy leadership contest looming on the horizon. Obviously these are the last days of Johnson, but many in the Conservative Party certainly wish he had reached the end of the line sooner. The trend of the general election polls is quite revealing here. The first wave of PartyGate propelled Labour to a peak 9% lead then it died down a bit, and plateaued on 4% for a wee while. Then the second wave propelled Labour to a peak 14% lead until it died down a bit again, and it's now plateauing around 6-7%. Just have to wonder where the third, fourth and fifth waves will take us, and what new variant of PartyGate will feed them. Right now we have GrayGate, which might actually be the last one that Gets Boris Done. Which is what Labour probably need, as the trends of recent polls have not been kind to them.

One of the upsides of the multiple plotlines of scandals is that they have shed some light on these mysterious creatures who usually dwell in the shadows: The Whips. Who are basically what The Guardian says they are: The Enforcers. Which is also the title you would choose for a Star Trek spin-off dedicated to Section 31, as their part in the plot is pretty much the same: protect the interests of their Highers and Betters. But some are probably reconsidering their position now that the most likely finale of the current plotline is Johnson's downfall, after he transmogrified into his worst persona as Mr Byobby. Now Bozo's last line of defence is made of Grant Shapps, Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and Conor Burns, which is evidence enough that he's in deeper shit than he thinks, no matter who or what ambushed him. So Bozo's ratings in the various beauty pageant polls don't really matter any more, as he will soon be gone, leaving behind just a box set of blooper reels as his legacy. Rishi Sunak's ratings are more relevant, especially as he's doing better than Bozo in the 'Preferred First Minister Of England' polling against Keir Starmer. But in the end, he too loses by a hare's breadth, and there are some scratches on his public persona, hinting that Wunderkind might no be such a wonder after all.

For a while, there was some polling of Boris Johnson vs Andy Burnham, though the likelihood of Burnham standing for Commons again and actually becoming Labour's leader was in the same range as Nicola Sturgeon making amends to Alex Salmond. But it was fun while it lasted, and perhaps pollsters should try Gary Neville too. But none of them could ever be arsed to test Liz Truss vs anyone in Labour, so there is no history of her possible performance, which would probably be a disgrace anyway. Of course, anyone who leaked Liz's £500k flight to Australia, which is only 125 times the going rate for a regular Qantas flight, was only motivated by a deep sense of duty to the public. What else? The absolute wonder is, of course, that Rishi Sunak remains the general public's and the Conservative rank and file's darling (more on that later), despite his commitment to taxing the poor to fund the rich. What was that soundbite again about 'leveling up'?

I win naturally, so I don’t need to be competitive

(James Acaster)

Some ideas are so stupid that only intellectuals believe them

(George Orwell)

In November, Survation conducted a poll, on behalf of 38 Degrees, about the Nolan Principles. This was designed to assess the public's view on how a number of organisations or people uphold, or do not uphold, these principles. I discussed their findings at length in a previous article, and they were damning for pretty much everyone, but especially for Boris Johnson, the English Government and the Conservative Party. Survation conducted the same survey in January, after the public had been exposed to various stages of SleazeGate, PartyGate, CakeGate and WhatTheFuckThisTimeGate, and their updated findings are bad news indeed for the Conservatives. I won't discuss all the gory details this time, but the poll is the very first of this year on Survation's archive page, if you want to enjoy them. Now I will focus only on the two major organisations surveyed in both polls, the Conservative Party and the Labour Party, and how recent events have influenced the public's view of both. The aggregation of the results for the seven items delivers the public's average assessment of the party's compliance with the principles, which you can compare with the average assessment back in November. Not unexpectedly, it looks pretty bad for the Conservatives.

The Conservative Party already had a strongly negative image in the public's eye in November, and it has become even worse over the last two months. The differences between the two averages are big enough, and beyond the polls' margin of error, to be considered significant. This is definitely a vote of no-confidence in the Conservative Part as a whole, not just Boris Johnson. The public have absolutely no problem delivering it even if the party won't. This only hammers the point home again, that Boris Johnson and his Ninth Circle are taking the party down with them. It could, and should, be a warning for all the unquestioning sycophants who still blindly support and defend Johnson, but it probably won't. Maybe they are just feart of the prospect of a snap election they would lose, and believe Jacob Rees-Mogg's claim that a new Prime Minister would have to call one to assert a personal mandate. Which of course is fucking bullshit as there is fuck all to the power of jack shit precedent for that. Even if there was, precedent is not even convention. And even if it was, convention is not a legal constraint, even if the Westminster system works as if it were. But it was still fun to hear Jake arguing that the Westminster system has turned into a presidential system. Which is also absolute fucking bullshit, even if some in the political biosphere would love it to become true. Anyway, the Conservatives haven't found themselves in a weaker position for a long time, and the public's assessment of Labour's compliance with the Nolan Principles just makes it a wee smitch clearer why.

The results for Labour are admittedly less conclusive and borderline ambiguous, as the public's assessment in November was quite a mixed bag with a high proportion of Don't Knows, and it has remained so. Nevertheless, the average of the seven items shows a slight improvement. Though it might not be totally statistically significant and doesn't really look like a heartfelt endorsement, it is in marked contrast to the Conservatives' declining credibility as upholders of standards in public life. In the current climate, this obviously influences voting intentions and Labour would be wrong not to use it. Even if it's always a weak campaigning point to stress that at least, you're not as bad as the other lot. Then I guess it's OK to rely on that as long as the public are buying it, innit?

Freedom is the freedom to say that two and two make four

If that is granted, all else follows

(George Orwell)

This version from Herbie Hancock's River: The Joni Letters album, 2007

It must be so difficult, particularly for younger people, to be constantly

told you’re wonderful, because you start to believe you might be

(Jackie Weaver)

The polling frenzy we have seen in the immediate aftermath of the first instalments of PartyGate has quietly died down now, from 10 polls in one week three weeks ago to a more manageable 4 per week more recently. Of course there could still be a surge in the near future if pollsters want to assess the fallout of redacting the Gray Report to offer a discredited Johnson his last lifeline. Or they might want to be the first to include Tom Tugendhat in their 'Preferred First Minister Of England' polling, just to check if has progressed from 'Tom who?' status to 'Oh yes, that Tom'. The most unexpected part of WhatTheFuckNowGate is the media bringing back the tired PetsGate narrative from the shambolic evacuation of Kabul. While questions should be raised about the English Government's failure to act swiftly enough so that they could use Pen Farthing's chartered plane to evacuate civilians, when it left with some 250 empty seats, just days after the MoD had authorised the priority evacuation of a car. Just saying. Or they might ask for details of the investigation into massive corporate fraud over Rishi Sunak's CBILS scheme, that cost the taxpayers some £5bn, up from an initial estimate of £4bn. Or the lack of any investigation, that is. Maybe Keir Starmer should really switch from bark to bite now, as Labour voting intentions look like they need a booster jag.

Today's Poll'O'Polls is smaller that last time, when we had more polls in a week than usually in a month. It includes the last four fully disclosed polls, conducted between 25 and 31 January. Super-sample size is 7,179 with a theoretical margin of error of 1.16%. We are far below the dizzying heights reached by Labour's voting intentions just a dozen days ago, probably reflecting the public's view that Labour should up their game and seek some positives of their own, instead of relying on the other lot's negatives. Which is of course the half-empty way of looking at it. So you might want to look at it the half-full way, that barely a third of the electorate would choose the Conservatives, so they definitely have outstayed their welcome. But there's also a part of the story that says Labour shouldn't really feel safe unless they stay on 40% or more for a significant length of time. We also know from earlier polling that a cornered and weakened Johnson is actually an asset for Labour, especially as the 1922 Committee now seems in no hurry to ditch him and pick a more convincing leader. Last week, Opinium also polled their panel about their assessment of some Conservative PM-wannabes, again ranking them from 'awesome' to 'fucking shit', and the results won't surprise you.

Rishi Sunak is the only one with a level of support higher than Conservative voting intentions in the same poll, and by double digits. Even The Saj, who would be a plausible establishment darling, doesn't come close. It is also quite fun and mildly reassuring to see Priti Patel still holding the title of Most Hated Woman In SW1, with massive negatives from both the general population and the Conservative rank and file. But it's quite a surprise to see Michael Gove doing almost well with Conservative voters, better than Jeremy Hunt, when the general public still can't take him seriously after his dancing clown impersonation in Aberdeen. The biggest unknown here is when the 1922 Committee will act and trigger a vote of no confidence in Johnson, which might not deliver the verdict everyone expects, if Conservative MPs listen to their constituents. As unbelievable as it looks, this week's poll from Redfield and Wilton says that 48% of Conservative voters approve of Johnson's performance as PM, compared to 28% of the public at large. Only 32% disapprove, against 55% of the general public. So, what many hope will be Boris's Last Stand might not be it after all. Watch this space.

Saying nothing is a choice, and a loud one, at that

(Vera Stanhope, Vera: As The Crow Flies, 2022)

This version recorded live at the Universal Amphitheatre, Los Angeles, August 1974

Our kids are inheriting an awful planet so let’s tone down their excitement

About what they might achieve or whether they might ever be happy

By the time you need to be saved, it’s already too late

(Jon Richardson)

There are several magic numbers for Labour in any future general election. The most obvious is 322, the number of seats they need for a majority in the likely scenario where Sinn Féin hold all their current seats and still don't take them. Next one is 316, the number of seats they need to match Tony Blair's result in England and Wales in 2005, with all Scottish seats but one written off. The last one is 300, pretty much the best educated wild guess of what they would need to form a majority coalition with the other centre-to-left parties currently in opposition, except the SNP, and also an easy to remember round number. Quite coincidentally, 300 Labour seats is just what my model predicts this time, against an equally round 250 Conservative seats. Which would take a Lab-Lib-SDLP Pact to 320 seats, and an Everything-But-Sturgeon coalition to 328. And, before you ask, I did not tweak the numbers here. The other projection models (Electoral Calculus, Election Polling, Flavible) are just a wee smitch better for Labour, with an average of 305 seats for Labour and 242 for the Conservatives.

There are many conflicting factors at work here. Both the SNP and Plaid Cymru are doing quite well, with the SNP pulling the rug from under the Conservatives in Scotland. This also helps Labour resist somewhat in Wales, though not as convincingly as they probably hoped, but does fuck all for them in Scotland. Oddly there seems to be a Slate Ceiling of five seats for Plaid Cymru, while the sky's the limit for the SNP. That is quite a change from what we had a dozen days ago, when the SNP were doing poorly and Labour better than expected in Scotland. No we're back to this rather puzzling situation where the SNP are predicted to bag an outright majority of the Scottish vote, while demonstrating every day that they have jack shit influence on anything that happens Sooth Of The Eyemouth Layby. Which only shows that the Scottish electorate is just as volatile as the English one, and just as irrational. The general trend of recent polls should also remind Labour that they're supposed to stand up for the common people, and not feel too comfy in the lobbies of SW1. Keir Starmer shouldn't have too high hopes either about the impact of the heavily redacted first variant of Sue Gray's report on PartyGate. Johnson has already proved his expertise in brushing aside such inconveniences, so perhaps Labour should focus now on everyday issues, like the fallout of Brexit that can no longer be hidden behind the fallout of Covid, or the various parts of the most serious cost-of-living crisis since the Winter Of Discontent. Just saying.

If the last couple of years have taught us anything

It’s that the way to get people’s attention is by making them worry

(Victoria Coren-Mitchell)

The problem is, I agree with everything Greta Thunberg says

But I don’t know what it is about her when she speaks

I’m like “Oh, fuck off a bit, will you? Fuck’s sake, I’m trying”

(Rob Beckett)

Let's play our usual little game now, taking a closer look at what the current polls predict by nation and region. And also assessing Labour's performance compared to my two favourite benchmarks: Corbyn 2017 and Blair 2005. I won't bother with 2019 right now, as Labour are predicted to do better now than then, with the unexpected exception of Wales. Where Labour would lose Alyn and Deeside to the Conservatives, who would then lose Ynys Môn to Plaid Cymru. Comparing this new projection with what we had two weeks ago is also quite irrelevant, as the ebbs and flows of polls are quite quirky sometimes. Unless it's to send a warning to Keir Starmer, that he may well run out of luck long before Boris Johnson genuinely runs out of road. What current polling says is that Starmer would do worse than both Corbyn and Blair in Wales and Scotland. The latter is obviously not a surprise, as Labour's fortunes in Scotland have been quite fluctuating, and recently relied on mediocre performances from the SNP, who now seem to be back to top shape, for whatever reasons. The situation in Wales is probably more worrying for Labour Central, but probably not totally unexpected, as the Conservatives there can still rely on the fallout of the strong Leave vote in rural areas.

England now, where Starmer does much better than Corbyn, 51 seats above the 2017 results, and almost as well as Blair, only 8 seats below the 2005 result. The key findings here are that Labour would be ten seats above 2005 in London, only one seat below in the rest of the South, four below in the Midlands and a massive thirteen seats below in the North. It does not necessarily mean a major shift in Labour's center of gravity. But there is some meaning in the fact that Labour are right now projected to gain 22 seats in the South outwith London, compared to 2017, but only 3 in the North. The current cartography of seats also highlights where Labour's problems might be, compared to the high tide we had two weeks ago. Euroscepticism, ironically fueled by some ideological purists among the metropolitan punditariat, who support the fairytale of a necessary and successful 'Lexit', is still a thing in working-class communities that used to be Labour heartlands. And the simple sad truth is that the Conservatives are better at cuddling it than Labour, which might explain strong fluctuations of voting intentions in the North. Otherwise, Labour are still successful with the younger generation of 'lockdown exiles' in London's Inner Commuter Belt. But they may well clash head on with the Liberal Democrats in the older and less 'progressive' seats of the Outer Commuter Belt, and that might be the unexpected spanner on Starmer's road to Number Ten.

There was no such thing as socks or smartphones and badgers

Until there suddenly were

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Under The Lake, 2015)

The way I see it, even a ghastly future is better than no future at all

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Before The Flood, 2015)

Savanta Comres have now released the latest instalment of their Scottish Political Tracker for The Scotsman, conducted between 14 and 18 January. As an appetiser, they also polled the public's opinion on the principle of holding a second independence referendum, but oddly included it in a 'topical poll' fielded across the whole of the UK. You wouldn't ask your neighbours about redecorating your home, would you? Anyway, the poll shows a weak plurality supporting holding IndyRef2 before 2024, as is supposedly Nicola Sturgeon's goal. And a lot also not giving a fucking fuck. A majority of Scots support the principle, more than would vote Yes in this hypothetical referendum. And I have a hunch we again have a tangled web of contradictory motivations behind these results. No voters supporting it because they think No would win, vs Yes voters opposing it because they think Yes would lose, plus all the possible combinations in between. The crosstabs with political affiliation are to be taken with a pinch of salt as they are, obviously except the SNP, based on UK-wide polling. Then it is quite interesting to see that a majority of Labour and LibDem voters support holding IndyRef2, while Green voters are more reluctant. And of course, the massive support from SNP voters is a clear message to Nicola Sturgeon: stop procrastinating and get it done, for fuck's sake.

The poll's findings about IndyRef2 are another half-full-half-empty story. Its 50-50 headline result was of course celebrated as good news by the SNP-compliant punditariat. The same lot who were over the moon when another poll in late November had Yes leading by 10%. Which makes this one not so much good news after all. But even the Scottish Pravda is allowed to have short memory when it serves the narrative, innit? Then we must also look at the long-term trend of IndyRef2 polls, which still does not look good enough for comfort, even with three favourable polls in succession recently. Also bear in mind that the 2014 polls did predict a No victory, but by a narrower margin than actually happened. The very last batch, fielded in the last three days, had No leading by an average 6.5%, 4% lower than the actual result. So polls now predicting a tie is in no way really reassuring, and we definitely need much better predictions than that before feeling confident. Which requires that everybody gets their eyes back on the prize, instead of indulging in diversionary tactics, pursuing unpopular and harmful policies that could wait until after The Day, and fueling internecine feuds. There is no overstatement in saying that the Yes movement globally has lost a lot of momentum and credibility, and the bulk of the reasons for that is clearly on the SNP's lap. So, get focused now, for fuck's sake.

Of course the much-publicised headline result of the Savanta Comres poll has to be taken into perspective using the raw results. Which say 45.5% Yes and 45.1 % No, with 9.4% undecided, when predicted turnout in not factored in. And 45.6% Yes to 45.8% No, with 8.6% undecided when it is. It is of course mathematically correct to say that there is a tie among voters who do express a voting intention. But we shouldn't underestimate the weight of the undecideds. There is no way to reliably say they would split the same way as the already decideds. If past experience has any bearing here, they are actually more likely to favour the status quo, or what appears to be the least risky option. Which would favour No in a two-way referendum. And plausibly DevoMax in an hypothetical three-way referendum. So SNP Central would be extremely ill-advised to support a three-way vote in the belief Yes would prevail. Pre-2014 polling of a three-way vote mostly predicted that DevoMax would top the first preferences. Such a vote would obviously have to be conducted on STV, and I have a gut feeling that DevoMaw would beat both Yes and No, whichever comes second on firsts, with second preferences counted. Which would probably be an acceptable outcome for the current variant of SNP Central, but could also trigger their demise at the next Holyrood election. Just saying.

People talk about premonition as if it’s something strange

It’s not, it’s just remembering in the wrong direction

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: The Girl Who Died, 2015)

Every story ever told really happened

Stories are where memories go when they’re forgotten

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Hell Bent, 2015)

Savanta Comres also polled voting intentions for the next Scottish Parliament election. There's a mixed bag of good news and bad news here for the players in that game. The first obvious Big Thing is the unexpected rebirth of the Liberal Democrats, 1% up on the constituency vote and 4% up on the list vote, compared to the last election. This is something we have seen in several GB-wide polls of the next general election, and the most obvious explanation was the LibDems had gained back some appeal after their victories in two emblematic by-elections. Seeing this trend spreading now to Scotland is quite a surprise, when you consider the pish-poor performance of the Scottish LibDem leadership. The second Big Thing, which many would consider the first, is Labour overtaking the Conservatives as the second party. Which is obviously not as much of a surprise as the LibDems' resurrection. It can even be seen as the natural fallout of the various scandals hitting the Conservatives UK-wide, in combination with a particularly inept leadership from Douglas Ross. Then it's not all milk and roses for the SNP, who are here barely level with the last election on the constituency vote, and 2.5% down on the list vote. The seat projections show net gains for the SNP-Green Axis anyway, whether on uniform swing or using my model with the regional crosstabs of the poll factored in.

Interestingly, the regional crosstabs switch just one seat in the constituencies: East Lothian, which stays with the SNP on uniform swing, but switches back to Labour on the regional crosstabs. The most noticeable differences between the two methods are with the list vote, where the smaller parties benefit from the uneven distribution of both the Labour and Conservative votes. The projection can also be seen as another argument against the 'Both Votes SNP' strategy as the SNP would hold just one list seat in Highlands and Islands, and lose their last remaining one in South Scotland. The breakdown of projected seats by region, compared to the 2021 result, is quite clear. The only gains for the government coalition are the result of the Greens' increased vote share on the regional lists. They even save the day for the coalition in South Scotland, where the SNP are predicted to do quite poorly.

So what we have here could easily lead to an 'SNP 1, Greens 2' strategy at the next election, as there is obviously nothing to lose in boosting the coalition partner. Especially if that means diverting voters from other pro-independence alternatives, who still seem to trigger obsessive reactions at SNP Central. Seen from that angle, the poor performance of the Alba Party looks like a self-fulfilling prophecy based on circular reasoning. Which does not mean Alba will do better in the foreseeable future, as the relentless pounding from the SNP faithful has also resulted in awful ratings for Alex Salmond, 11% favourable vs 72% unfavourable. Then I guess one wise move for Big Eck would be to tell Chris McEleny to shut the fuck up, or lock him out of Twitter for the next ten years, as he clearly does more harm than good. Just saying. Then the next stop is 5 May with the Council elections, when hopefully the SNP will be judged on their actual performance, and not on some unrelated PR soundbites.

They’re not violent, they’re too cowardly, they wouldn’t say boo to a goose

They’re more likely to give the goose their car keys and bank details

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Under The Lake, 2015)

This version recorded live at the Santa Barbara Bowl, 9 September 1979

There’s a boom in Botox, is there?

It’s just what we need to reverse industrial decline

(DCI Vera Stanhope, Vera: Cold River, 2018)

As usual, we'll take a detour to some juicy election news abroad, this time to the United States. Midterm elections for the House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, State Legislatures in 46 states, and 38 Governors will be held on 8 November. And then the Full Monty with the presidential election will follow on 5 November 2024. Because, believe it or not, polling for the next presidential election has already started back in June 2021, and there are already as many presidential polls each month as general election polls in the UK. Losing the three most marginal states (Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin in that order) would deliver an exact tie in the Electoral College, with the election to be decided by Congress. Losing the fourth (Pennsylvania) would switch the election to the Republican candidate. All four, and more, are well within reach of the Republicans on current polling. The overall picture is definitely not good for the Democrats, even with a few more favourable polls recently, as a tie in the popular vote would deliver a Republican majority in the Electoral College. Even Kamala Harris has become something of a liability, receiving her fair (or unfair, you mileage may vary here) share of negative coverage in the media. The bulk of polls test a Biden-Trump rematch as this looks like the most plausible scenario thus far. But Democrats should be worried because Biden does better against Trump, who is still a major repellent for a significant number of voters, than against a 'generic' Republican. And Harris, the most likely candidate if Biden stands down, does worse than him.

The Biden-Harris administration is actually facing three problems. Joe Biden is not popular and his ratings have gone down sharply to an average 42% approval, which is really bad by American standards, while a massive 67% of Americans think their country is on the wrong track. Which is linked to Biden's second problem, the handling of the Covid pandemic. Opposition to any sort of restrictions and the anti-vaxx movement are stronger in the USA than in Europe, and the Republicans have been surfing the wave on the usual mix of defence of individual freedoms and State rights. The third problem, which actually is the whole Democratic Party's and not just Biden's, is their unconditional alignment with woke ideology and intersectional politics. Which does no go down well with Republican voters and socially conservative Democrats, so aboot two thirds of registered voters. As you might expect, the most contentious issue is the Democrats' support for critical race theory, obviously a hot issue in a country where everyday racism is still much more alive than in most of Europe, and not just in the rancid backwaters of the Redneck South. All this, and other factors of discontent such as cost of living, is reflected in polling for the House of Representatives elections. It tends to be volatile, and house effects are more obvious than in the UK, as a fair share of polls are conducted by firms openly associated with the two major parties. Then there is no mistaking the general trends, and they are not good for the Democrats.

The current rolling average of the most recent batch of polls is 51% for the Republicans and 48% for the Democrats, pretty much the mirror image of the 2020 elections. This means the Democrats would lose aboot 30-35 seats and control of the House of Representatives. The current round of redistricting (which, as you might remember, is American for boundary reviews) is not expected to have a massive impact as it will likely deliver only a minute bonus for the Democrats, at most 5 additional notional seats and far from enough to save them from a significant defeat. So far 28 states have completed the process, 16 still have it underway and 6 are not impacted as they return only one Representative (which, as you surely remember, is American for MP). But some plans may still be taken to court if there is enough evidence of blatant gerrymandering. It has already happened this year in Ohio and Alabama, both of which displayed an undeniable pro-Republican bias. Pennsylvania's yet-unannounced new map is also a likely contender for a court challenge, as it was already twice in recent years. But it would surely take more than a few upsets to save the Democratic majority in the House. I won't discuss the Senate elections just yet, as they are a state-by-state thing, with a strong personal factor and often disconnected from national trends, and we just don't have enough state-by-state polling this far for credible predictions. More to come later.

What do the rich old men always do when the fighting starts?

They’ll find the safest place to hide themselves away

And send all their young people to die

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: The Return Of Doctor Mysterio, 2016)

I hate Health and Safety in all its many forms

I know there’ll be do-gooders that say

“Come on, we don’t want people being injured and it’s there to help”

No, the reason we have danger is to get rid of idiots

(Ross Noble, Room 101, 2012)

Back to this side of the ocean, when the media are not promoting Series 3 of PartyGate too heavy-handedly, the public's main concern is still Covid. And right now the predictable and predicted repeal of all regulations. Which does go down as well with the general population as Boris Johnson and Nicola Sturgeon expected. There is no massive celebration of Freedom Day this time, and the most notable incidents involved Boris Being Boris again, when it should have been Boris Not Speaking Out Of His Arse Again. Maye be Commons should pass a bill officially renaming Murphy's Law Johnson's Law in all lands of the Crown. Anyway, his initial attempt to strongarm English schools into submission about the wearing of masks wasn't a qualified success. First reason being that the governments, in England just as in Scotland, have no managerial authority over schools. Second reason being that saying 'Johnson' and 'authority' in the same sentence these days only triggers manic laughter. He has become Jackie Weaver without the 'switch off' button. Anyway, schools were quick to tell him to fuck off and that they would do what they wanted. Which was just one of the signs of some doubt and unease in the general public, which YouGov caught when they asked their panel whether they thought the lifting of Covid-related restrictions proceeded too quickly or too slowly.

With undecideds factored out, a strong plurality of the public think it's going too quickly. Even Conservative voters have some doubts and offer only lukewarm support to the government doing this at about the right pace. The uncertainty is widespread across all demographics and geographics. Even the Zoomers, who you'd think would be the most eager to go back to the old ways, getting blootered in night clubs and jumping into the mosh pit, are not massively convinced and err on the side of caution. A majority of Scots also think it's going too fast. Even if YouGov's question is about the UK government and a devolved matter, it's still relevant in Scotland, as the Scottish government is pretty much going down the same road, and even anticipating the moves in some cases. Another poll has also surveyed the public's opinion about a snap election, which is certainly influenced by an odd mix of factors. Including, but not limited to, their voting intentions and their assessment of the current government's policies.

There's definitely a strong consensus in favour of a snap election, and the sooner the better. Unsurprisingly, Labour and SNP voters are its stronger supporters, as they expect gains for their respective parties, while Conservative voters favour holding the election as scheduled in May 2024. LibDem voters also support a snap election, albeit less decisively than Labour and SNP voters, as their confidence is buoyed by two spectacular by-election gains. But they might want to be more cautious about this, as the 2019 snap election proved to be quite a letdown for the LibDems, who have quite a pattern of losing by-election gains at the next general. They should also remember that polls are volatile and can't predict the amount of tactical voting, which could result in a higher concentration of the votes on the two major parties than current polling predicts. Labour voters should also be more careful what they wish for, remembering that polls in the spring of 2019 predicted that Jeremy Corbyn would lead Labour to victory at the next general election. There would also probably be major differences between a snap election called by Boris Johnson in a desperate effort to save his arse, and one called by a new Conservative leader seeking a personal mandate on a revamped manifesto. Remember too that any plausible Conservative leader has a vested interest in holding the next election only after the current Boundary Review has been passed into law, and that's late 2023. At which point there would probably be no point in a snap election, and holding it as scheduled would be the natural choice.

If you have got any complaints, mail them to last Tuesday when I might have cared

(John Cooper-Clarke)

This version from Joni Mitchell's Both Sides Now album, 2000

Jeremy's Den

01/02/2022

From The Circle Jerk To The Circular Firing Squad

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