Jeremy's Den: Goodbye To The Past

It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness,

it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of

Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had

nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way.

(Charles Dickens, A Tale Of Two Cities, 1859)

Truth is that when we’re remembering something, we’re not actually recalling the actual event.

What we’re doing is remembering the last time we remembered it.

(Sonia Woodley QC, Quiz, 2020)

Remember to click on the images for larger pop-up versions.

It's been 562 days now and 577 consecutive polls since the last time the Conservatives bagged higher voting intentions than Labour. Boris Johnson was Prime Minister, and Rishi Sunak was Chancellor of the Exchequer. In these 562 days, the Conservatives have lost three Commons seats at by-elections, 63 seats on Scottish Councils, 86 seats on Welsh Councils, 104 seats on London Borough Councils and 1,265 seats on Councils across the rest of England. In the meanwhile, the trends of general election polls have remained hugely favourable to the Labour Party. If you take a sherlockian look at the tail ends of the trendlines, you will even notice that there has been a wee dip for the Conservatives and a wee surge for Labour in the last week. Obviously because of the last episodes of the Boris Johnson Show, and the way its fallout has splashed all over the rest of the Conservative Party. We'll see more of that pretty much everywhere later.

People who don't like polls, or rather what the polls say, like to argue that polls don't tell us what the people think, but tell the people what they should say they think. As if it was a perpetual feedback loop of confirmation bias. But couldn't it be more of a chicken-and-egg situation? Or a ripple effect? Anyway, the ripples are more like tsunami waves right now, and you have to feel sorry for poor Rishi Sunak. He's more damaged goods than ever, through no fault of his own. He must feel like the sad wee abandoned dog, sitting with his face to the wall at the far end of the kennel, and still not understanding why the world has been so unfair to him. Should Rishi really take the full brunt of the blame when he has done nothing? Or, rather, should he be apportioned his fair share of the blame because he has done nothing while the whole clown show was unfolding? Looks like the good people of These Isles have chosen. The shit has hit the fan and it will stick to the bitter end.

So we are constantly wiping our pasts and editing together a new one.

One that makes sense to us now, in the present. All memories are therefore, by definition, a lie.

They change. We change them. Which isn’t a crime, a conspiracy, just human nature.

(Sonia Woodley QC, Quiz, 2020)

The Privileges Committee have found that Boris Johnson did deliberately lie. He lied at the

time to the Commons, he lied about lying later, he lied about whether he lied about the lying.

(Ian Hislop, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

On Wednesday The Fourteenth, Savanta released the latest iteration of their monthly Political Attitudes Poll, and there are some gems in it. Some of them might even provide some sort of explanation for what voting intentions polls are currently delivering. And most of them are definitely alarming for the British political establishment, whatever side they're on. There's an intriguing bias in that poll though, as it includes only two opposition politicians, side by side with a bunch of Conservatives. Some of whom are no longer part of the government, but just blurs on our long-term memories. Though it's a good thing, in a way, to be reminded that the have-beens are just as despised now as when they were on the frontbench.

To be honest, these polls have become quite boring, as we always find out they found out the exact same things as last month, and the month before that, and... Rishi Sunak is more popular than the generic Conservative brand. Keir Starmer is more popular than Rishi Sunak, but not by much. Boris Johnson is more popular than any other Conservative politician but Rishi. Sue-Ellen Braverman and James Cleverly, the man who makes a fucking joke of nominative determinism, are the least popular Conservatives. Definitely an overwhelming sense of déjà vu here. The next question in Savanta's poll was more fun as they pitted the three wannabe Prime Ministers against each other. Well, the current Prime Minister, the wannabe Prime Minister and Jo Swinson's replacement. Who has been clever enough so far to avoid bragging he could be the next Prime Minister, probably out of fear that would bring him back luck too. And next time, Savanta will need to add Wes Streeting to the list.

Here again, Keir beats Rishi, but not by much, and even comes second on two out of seven items. The results are also quite harsh, and probably unfair, for Ed Davey. But that's just what you should expect when most people's first reaction is 'Ed who?', innit? Savanta concluded this sequence of questions by going a wee smitch more conceptual, and pitting the parties against each other rather than the men. Which is certainly a better indicator of where the election may go than the personal ratings. And the results here are better news for Labour, who come first on 11 out of 12 items. And the Conservatives win just the one they wanted to lose, being rated as the most divided party of the three. Maybe it would have been different if Savanta had included the SNP too.

It is also quite revealing that the Liberal Democrats also beat the Conservatives on half of the items on the list, though I am quite sure that nobody I know could name even just one LibDem policy. Other than their readiness to accommodate MAPs, the NewSpeak descriptor for Jimmy Savile and the like, as pillars of the Brave New Inclusive World. And that's only because I told them about it. The striking thing in that specific question is that we don't get the usual lukewarm half-baked levels of support for Labour. They do dominate the Conservatives quite significantly on most items. This is not the result of a pro-Labour bias, as the Savanta polls are quite similar to all others when it comes to voting intentions. I can only hypothesise that adding the Liberal Democrats as a third choice makes a difference, as it could make people think twice about choosing the Conservatives as the best on anything.

Boris lied at every point, and he ended up calling the Committee liars. And then he got in a terrific,

terrific tantrum, said it was a witch-hunt. Which it isn't if you are a witch, you know...

(Ian Hislop, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

If everybody’s this angry now, what must it have been like before air conditioning?

(Percy Fitzwallace, The West Wing: Gaza, 2004)

The outcome of an election is not determined only by what voters think of the directions proposed by the different parties for after the election, though they can tell the difference between the Yellow Brick Road and the Highway To Hell. Of equal weight is their assessment of what's on the table right now, or rather what isn't in these times of cost-of-living crisis and wage stagnation. You can approach an assessment of this by their levels of confidence in the future, or lack thereof. Savanta included questions about that in their monthly Political Attitudes survey, and the June results are a fucking disaster for whomever is in charge, as we have multiple hints it might not really be Rishi Sunak after all. Here's what the British people have to say when asked if they think some important elements of their lives will get better or worse over the next 12 months.

Basically, everything that is within the government's remit, and has already turned to absolute fucking shit, will get even shittier. Though there is still a remote chance that our collective health will not suffer too much. So long as we don't need the NHS, I guess. The deadline set in the question is 12 months, so plausibly before the snap general. That question sounds a lot like the Captain of the Titanic asking his bridge crew whether or not they will hit the iceberg if they don't change course. Which of course he won't, because that would be admitting being wrong. Which no Conservative can, following in David Cameron's and George Osborne's footsteps, who still try and convince us that austerity is the solution and not the problem. Savanta asked the same question from a different angle, asking their panel whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about the way some things will evolve in 2023. Different deadline, same issues and subtly different replies.

People have the right to contradict themselves, and feel optimistic about things they feel will not get better. Or it is just the admission that, in the fucking mess we're in, things not getting worse is already a ray of sunshine in itself. Then there is still the prospect of a weekend in Magaluf, provided you can stand seven hours in a Border Control queue both ways. Or the prospect of seeing the employment situation improve because jobless 60yr-olds will take the fruit-picker jobs available in Surrey. Of course there have been worse times to live in, like under postwar food-rationing or the three-day week in the 1970s. Already a Conservative 'innovation', by the way. But you can't just brush aside the feeling that this poll, and others before it, don't show a very confident or hopeful Britain. The combination of these two questions paints quite a bleak picture. Could it be summat like the return of the No Future Generation of the Callaghan years? Not quite there yet, mates. They had Johnny Rotten, we have Sam Smith.

We are here, we are demanding change, we refuse to be poor, and we will win for our people on our terms.

(Mick Lynch)

Well, you know, it started off really well and then ended up not. Suppose, like, someone who’s been in a car

crash. They got up in the morning, everything was fine. And then they were dead at the side of the road.

(Lucy Beaumont, Meet the Richardsons, 2023)

Today's Poll'O'Polls is transseptimanist. Which is not a new inclusive designator for lime-haired cephalofluids, it just means there's stuff in it from the other side of the weekend. Last Friday, if you prefer. As in the last Omnisis poll. Supplemented here by the last one from Redfield & Wilton, the last one from Savanta, a rare one from More In Common, the last one from Deltapoll, and finally the last one from Survation. So we have a super-sample of 9,978 with a theoretical margin of error of 0.98%. And we have Labour back to fine shape, with a lead of nearly 20% over the Conservatives GB-wide and across England. Oddly, Labour are again doing poorly in London, which will surely deserve some forensicising if it lasts. But they more than make up for that in Scotland, being now statistically level with the SNP.

The GB-wide vote shares for Labour and the Conservatives are almost the same as we had at the end of January. Before the English local elections prompted fuckloads of wild speculation about Labour losing momentum and the possibility of a hung Parliament. Those were the days when Owen Jones proved himself worthy of his Tory-enabler credentials, ranting about a hung Parliament in the supposedly progressive Hipstershire Gazette. We obviously need some sort of constitutional reform, and a toothless House of Commons is certainly not the way to achieve it. That's where the arguments in favour of a hung Parliament come to die. If you rely on an alleged consensus, you don't have the means to enforce really bold reforms, Like Labour at last fulfilling a three-decades old promise to abolish the House of Lords. But I can really see how Keir Starmer's plan to stuff it with dozens of new Red Ermines is the obvious first step on the road to abolition. No shit. Back to Commons, the breakdown of voting intentions in the regions of England, still going strongly against Wee Owen's advice, is also quite telling.

What we have here is a significant swing towards Labour, even in the North, where they already were the dominant party, despite the narrative about the Fall Of The Red Wall. Besides their unexpected success in Scotland, the two major factors that help Labour are still present here. Reform UK still has a strong presence in the North, with no hope of ever gaining a seat, but perfectly fulfilling their purpose as wreckers of the Conservatives' chance. The Liberal Democrats are still doing really well in the South, partly because of finely targeted tactical voting. But it also helps Labour gaining Conservative seats in the unlikeliest necks of the woods. Many usually Conservative voters being in a foul mood also helps, especially when they vent it in a constituency where a by-election is to be held in four weeks. It's gonna spread like Wi-Fi, so get ready for the Summer Of Discontent.

People listened to Boris Johnson on the telly and took from him what the rules were, as the primary

message giver. So the idea he didn't understand the regulations... means he's either lying or he's thick.

Those two things are not mutually exclusive.

(Jess Phillips in Commons, 19 June 2023)

Nigel Farage has suggested teaming up with Boris Johnson to form a new party.

Farage claimed up to 10 sitting Tories could join them. "Wow!", said the LibDems.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

As you probably have guessed by now, the seat projection based on current polling delivers a massive majority for Labour. They would bag a 245-seat working majority on the current soon-to-be-past boundaries, and a just as impressive 243-seat working majority on the incoming new boundaries. As usual, I assumed the Northern Ireland seats unchanged from 2019, as we don't have any polls to support a different scenario. One salient feature is that Labour are doing so well in polls that they would bag an outright majority solely in England outwith London in both cases. Quite a feat as the 1997 Blairslide did not achieve an outright majority from England only, as they fell two seats short even with London included.

There are some interesting twists in the breakdown of seats by nation and the Imperial Capital. The first one is obviously Scotland. You may remember I identified the tipping point, Labour bagging one more seat than the SNP, as the moment where the SNP would lead by only 2% in the popular vote. We're there now, with the SNP 1% ahead in the popular vote and Labour 4 seats ahead on the current boundaries, and still 1 seat ahead on the future boundaries that have an embedded SNP Protection Mechanism. If the trends seen in recent Scottish polls continue, it might lead to a cataclysmic domino effect in all regions where SNP-Lab marginals exist, and we'll see more of that later. A far less happy sight for Labour is the situation in London. Obviously Keir Starmer always took the London seats for granted, as a setback in his own backyard is beyond imagination. Only it's happening now, with Labour predicted to lose one seat to the Conservatives. Adding insult to injury, that would also be a worse result than what Jeremy Corbyn achieved in 2017, in what is also his own backyard.

The only brick missing in the wall now is Northern Ireland polling. Unlike Scotland and Wales, England-based pollsters very rarely cross the sea to Belfast, and none has done so since the December 2019 general election. In the meanwhile, both the local parties and the local pollsters are far more interested in voting intentions for the Northern Ireland Assembly, because yet another dissolution and snap election can't be ruled out. It should actually have already happened... in November 2022. But the English Government kept moving the goalposts as they want to avoid another election at all costs, that would deliver a stronger Sinn Féin and a weaker DUP. Legally, a snap Assembly election is required if no Executive has been formed past a legally binding deadline. So the English Government just had legislation passed that moved the deadline. Four times. Now it's 18 January 2024, so there is a real possibility Northern Ireland will have an Assembly election before the snap general. And the natives will be proved right to not have given a fucking shit about the general.

My favourite of all the honours is the one for the parliamentary hairdresser, the one who did

Boris Johnson's hair. She got and MBE. Imagine what she could have got if she'd been any good.

(Helen Lewis, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

I also feel a bit sorry for all the women on the list, because they're going to walk around

for the rest of their lives with everyone assuming that they shagged him.

(Helen Lewis, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

If Labour HQ have a team of geeks dissecting voting intentions polls and the kind of seat allocation they can deliver, they have certainly asked them to keep a sharp eye on the regions of England. Because a lot has been happening there since Boris Johnson reluctantly left Number Ten, and a lot of it looks like an ongoing reboot of Tales Of The Unexpected. Mostly the part where the South switch allegiance to Team Red and then resist any attempt by Team Blue to gain them back. Though, to be honest, it counted as unexpected six months ago but has become summat of a routine feature more recently. As exemplified by the current headcount on the current boundaries, while they still exist.

To sum things up, the current snapshot means 133 Labour seats out of 158 in the North, 85 out of 105 in the Midlands, and an unbelievable 116 out of 197 in the South. To put things in perspective, in 1997 and on slightly different boundaries, Labour bagged 139 seats out of 162 in the North, 73 out of 103 in the Midlands, and 59 out of 190 in the South. So the predicted Keirslide of '24 is similar to the Blairslide of '97 in the North, bigger in the Midlands and fucking huger in the South. The latter being the part the Conservatives least expected, but have learned to live with. The most unexpected and astonishing feature is that the new Southern battle lines have demonstrated the same kind of elasticity as your kitchen rubber bands. They have moved against Labour when Keir appeared to be losing the plot, and then snapped back into place when Boris fucked up his exit-stage-left and Rishi totally failed to capitalise on it. The future boundaries don't make it any better for the Conservatives.

Now we have 132 Labour seats of 154 in the New North, 83 out of 104 in the New Midlands, and 123 out of 210 in the New South. Better overall than the 2019 boundaries by a handful of seats, and most visibly in the South. But the Red Number Crunchers have certainly warned Sir Keir that there is inbuilt fragility in this, because of the very delicate recarving of many Southern seats. Smallish movements of the electorate can lead to bigger domino effects than in Scotland. We're not talking two or three seats here, but more like packs of 20 or 25. The other liability is that a lot depends on the Liberal Democrats, and their ability to lure Conservative voters away from their lifelong comfort zone, not just on Labour's own performance. So I wouldn't be surprised to see some Labour grandees shadowing Ed Davey on his tours of Middle England. Not necessarily to counter the LibDem's campaigning, but just to keep their ear to the ground and stay ahead of what's happening Doon Sooth. Just watch this space for further twists.

Boris Johnson has given a knighthood to his loyal supporter Jacob Rees-Mogg.

Usually the only gong he gets excited about is the one Nanny strikes to say his fish fingers are ready.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Boris Johnson's Resignation Honours List has caused massive controversy.

Could have been worse. His first draft included Lord Schofield.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Pollsters love to go digging in the dirt about anything, but sometimes it makes sense to go back to basics. Which are not about with whom you'd love to have a pint at the pub, though that does play its part in local politics. We should never forget that, at the end of the day, it has to be all about what is in the parties' manifestos. And also about what isn't. The only possible catch here is that there is but one Time Lord here, and it's not Peter Capaldi. It's Rishi Sunak. He has the final say about when the snap general will happen. The only certainty is that it will be after Commons approve the 2023 Boundary Review. Which the Conservatives will most certainly fast-track some time between the Summer Break and the Conference Recess. Then all bets are off, and the election may well happen before Labour expect it. Si it would be wise of them to adopt a manifesto at this year's conference, as the election could happen before the 2024 edition. Always willing to help, YouGov have surveyed their panel about a baker's dozen items that may appear in the Labour manifesto, and what level of support they draw.

It's reassuring to see that there is support for what you might call the last truly left-wing proposals still supported by New New Labour. The people are less keen on the residual pro-union measures and, more surprisingly, the banning of probation periods. I guess that Keir Starmer's spads and Peter Mandelson's focus groups will have an eye on this one, and especially the average level of support it has found. Overall, and including all 13 items, it's 52% supporting and 28% opposing. If you remove the three pro-union measures, it shifts to 53% supporting and 23% opposing. If you remove the probation period thing on top of that, you get a massive 60% supporting vs 20% opposing. So I guess we have a pretty clear idea of which commitments Wes Streeting will advise Keir Starmer to axe, to avoid frightening the floating voters in Surrey Heath who would have voted LibDem anyway. Then they still can send Peter Mandelson on a trip down Memory Lane to Hartlepool, as his chauffeur knows how to get there if Peter doesn't remember, and explain Andy Capp why it is a good idea to ditch the last pretense that Labour value and respect the unions. Can't wait for the real manifesto now.

As an aside to the more pressing issues of the day, there was also quite a kerfuffle lately about Rishi Sunak's decision to drop the so-called Kept Animals Bill, more appropriately called an animal welfare bill. It is a key commitment of the 2019 Conservative Manifesto, and there are no clear reasons to drop it. Other than pissing off Boris Johnson, that is. Then we had that odd episode, where Labour used their Opposition Day not to table an animal welfare motion of their own, but to bring back the government's own bill without changing a word in it. They surely hoped that it would pass, as enough Tory MPs had voiced their opposition to the government dropping it. But the government whips managed to have it voted down for the flimsiest of reasons, which makes nobody look good in the end. The ever-prescient YouGov definitely felt there was something of an issue here, and had already diligently surveyed their panel. Not on all the details of the original bill, but on specific provisions dealing with the importation of dogs into the UK. The results are quite clear cut.

Rishi Sunak should not ignore the demographics, that say Britain is more a nation of dog owners than of home owners. Or the fact that many Brits agree with the idea that the way we treat animals is a reflection on the way we treat fellow humans. Which may sound corny and snowflaky, but definitely has truth in it. I agree that YouGov may have been a wee smitch manipulative here, as they cherry-picked topics most likely to elicit high levels of support. This is one of these proverbial polls I mentioned earlier, that try and shape public opinion rather than report on its state. But that does not make the findings less true, or decisive action less necessary. What we need now is another poll with a wider scope, testing public opinion on aspects of animal welfare that are supposedly more 'controversial'. Like meat farming, dairy farming, animal experimentation or illegal fox hunting on government land. There is a self-evident need to legislate in these areas too, if only to close existing loopholes. Labour would definitely be on the right side of history, for once, if they included solid pledges about all these issues in their snap general manifesto.

Also receiving an honour is Tory MP Conor Burns, who famously walked in on Boris

in a compromising situation in the Foreign Office. He's now to receive a knighthood,

so will soon be adopting a similar position to the one he found Carrie in.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Nicola Sturgeon was arrested on Sunday and the best thing about that was on Saturday,

she passed her driving theory test. And she didn't get a very good score on hazard perception.

(Helen Lewis, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

I had barely posted my previous article, on my birthday, when the shocking news broke out that Nicola Sturgeon had been arrested. Followed, one hour later, by the intriguing news that she had in fact volunteered to meet the Polis, who questioned her 'as a suspect' (their words, not mine), and had been released without charge 'pending further investigation'. In the immortal words of Francis Urquhart, I can't possibly comment, as this is a live investigation with some variant of legal proceedings undoubtedly attached, and there are surely many cats still in the bag, patiently waiting for their turn for their sip of milk. Notwithstanding all precautions, this has undoubtedly had some impact on the Scottish public's mood. First hint was the Bellshill by-election, to fill a vacancy on North Lanarkshire Council. Labour gained the seat from the SNP directly on first preferences, with 51.8% of votes cast and a 13.5% swing from the SNP to Labour. That's one the SNP can blame only on themselves, for protecting sex offender Jordan Linden and hounding down the whistleblowers who exposed him. Which affords me the opportunity to have a look at how Scottish Councils have evolved over the last year.

Very little changed in our Councils last year. But this year was definitely bad for the SNP, now down 16 seats on the elections' results. Five former SNP Councillors now sitting as Independents, eight in the Progressive Change North Lanarkshire group founded to protest the SNP's cover-up of Jordan Linden's sexual offences, a net loss of three seats at by-elections. The biggest number of losses comes from defections, which should have been a warning sign already during the previous term, when the SNP lost 38 seats over five years to defections. Then Savanta published the new instalment of their Scottish Trackers for the Scotsman, there was another new Full Scottish from Panelbase for the Sunday Times, and many at SNP HQ must have gasped in horror reading them. Let's see first how the trendlines of IndyRef voting intentions look now.

It's improving, but we're not there yet. It's daft and careless to say otherwise, as the SNP and the Alba Party have done recently, both on the basis of just one fucking poll. Remember that Jack Sparrow doth not a summer make, or summat, and No is still leading by 4%. For now. But poll after poll also confirms something I mentioned already some months ago, and some like The Scottish Pravda are pretending to only discover now, that the Yes vote is definitively disconnected from the SNP vote. The sad part is that many at SNP HQ are still in denial about that, and keep monstering the other pro-Independence parties. Other than the Greens, that is, as the only glue that holds the Yellow-Green Axis together is ideological exclusion of everyone who does not kowtow to the dogma and doxa of extremist Wokeism. This a terminal case of student politics, and can only jeopardise the prospect of Independence itself. But they probably don't give a fucking shit, do they?

The ex-SNP communications chief Murray Foote said he was so certain there would be no charges

after the investigation, that he was "prepared to bet £5 on it". Don't spend it all at once, Murray.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Following their former leader's arrest, the SNP agreed to send Nicola Sturgeon some flowers.

Eyebrows were raised when the new party treasurer produced a hand-written florist receipt for £600,000.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

The main difference between the two new polls is that Savanta's was fielded partly before and partly after Nicola Sturgeon's arrest and release, and Panelbase's was conducted wholly after. Then I guess we will now need a third poll to assess the effect of Nicola's doorstep press conference, where she repeatedly adopted what is alternatively called the Boris Johnson Defence or the Guilty Dog Defence. The latter usually features a "Don't look at me!" moment, which is just what Nicola asked the press to do. As if. But we can already see a difference between the polls' results, before and after. My model tends to maximise Labour's gains at the incoming snap general, as the regional crosstabs show them overperforming across the Central Belt, where the bulk of the SNP-Lab marginals are located, and thusly become easy preys. The massive Lurch To The Red, in the projections from the Panelbase poll, also shows how fragile a lot of SNP seats are, when a tie in the popular vote toggles two thirds of them.

In the SNP's nightmare scenario, we have an example of how a just small swing in voting intentions can cause a major earthquake. Here we're talking complete eradication in Glasgow and almost complete in Edinburgh, with only Joanna Cherry in South West surviving the debacle. Then I guess the SNP's leadership would still find a way to lipstick that pig. After all, they could still claim it's the third best Westminster result in the party's history. One of the keys to the SNP's current woes might be in another question in Savanta's last Scottish Tracker. It went 'To what extent would you consider voting for each of the following parties in your constituency at the next General Election, either as your preferred party, or by voting tactically to stop another party from winning?', which is a bit long-winded, but covers all bases. And here's what the panel replied.

Savanta asked their panel to rank themselves from 0 to 10. So, for easier reading, I translated 0 into 'not at all', 5 into 'neutral', 10 into 'very strongly' and the intermediate rankings into 'likely' and 'unlikely'. But, whichever way you translate the raw data, one thing remains. Labour are more attractive than the SNP. Not because they are the preferred party per se, but because they are the most credible fallback option for voters ready to indulge in tactical voting. As we know, tactical voting can mean one of two things in Scotland, or a mash of both. Either it's about kicking the SNP in the baws. Or it's about maximising the chances of a massive Conservative defeat by increasing the size of the predicted Labour majority. The former makes sense from an Unionist perspective, the latter makes sense from a left-wing perspective. Labour are obviously the only ones who can play on both, and do. Polls show that it works, as they are close to doubling their vote share, and this can happen only by draining extra votes from both sides of the compass. Something the SNP faithful tell you is not happening. But we already know what happens with things that can't happen, don't we?

You’re top of the tree, then you’re nothing, it’s happening everywhere. And nobody cares.

(Hartley Culpepper, Dalziel & Pascoe: Ruling Passion, 1997)

On Sunday, Nicola Sturgeon was questioned by police for seven hours. Presumably as she refused to give

a straight answer to the question, "How will an independent Scotland fund itself when the oil runs out?"

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

The Holyrood polling from our last two polls also shows quite interesting differences between the Before and the After. I'm not convinced it will have much of an impact on the long-term trends of voting intentions, but it has again made the current ones worse for the SNP and better for Labour. The SNP's and Labour's constituency vote trendlines have followed an almost parallel course for a wee while. And are now ever so slightly closing on each other again. Which definitely sounds like a bad omen for at least one of the sides involved. We all know what happens when ships sailing on parallel courses turn towards each other, don't we? Which, in case you find that far-fetched, is based on a totally true story.

Here's what the Savanta poll found, and how it translates into seats, from my model and on uniform national swing (UNS) processed by the Election Polling Scottish Parliament Swingometer. For once, my model is more favourable to the Yellow-Green Axis than UNS. Which is the effect of the weird combination of the regional crosstabs leaning towards the SNP on the list vote, and towards Labour on the constituency vote. That would be a quite interesting situation at a real election, as it makes the difference between a 5-seat Unionist majority and a 1-seat pro-Independence majority. On this poll's regional crosstabs for the constituency vote, the SNP would be safe in Glasgow, but suffer massive losses to Labour in the Central and West regions, and a few more in the South.

The seat projections from the Panelbase poll are much more of a fucking disaster for the SNP. And here my model agrees with UNS that the pro-Independence majority would be irremediably lost, with a 13-seat majority for the Unionist parties. And there is still a big difference between the two projections: the number of expected Labour seats. It is no surprise that factoring in the regional crosstabs favours Labour, it has become summat of a permanent fixture now. Even if the voting patterns here are different from the Westminster elections, there is obviously also a tipping point somewhere, past which Labour would bag more seats than the SNP on fewer votes. My model putting the SNP just three seats ahead of Labour is a hint that we may be uncomfortably close to it.

A sequence of polls predicting the demise of the pro-Independence majority should be food for thought at SNP HQ. But they are behaving more and more like CCHQ, locking themselves up inside an echo chamber of their variant of the hive mind. The main problem in both cases is that denial of reality does not make reality less real, or the need to listen to the people less urgent. Expelling Fergus Ewing for a crime of lèse majesté against Lorna Slater is certainly not the best way to gain back the people's trust. And let me be quite provocative about which doors the most recent batch of polls may have opened. Now that we have two Old Hutchesonians in charge of the SNP and Labour (Scottish Branch), surely they could figure out a way to strike a deal in EH99, the same way Old Etonians take blood oaths in SW1. In a more direct way, an SNP-Labour coalition government after the 2026 election. Don't dismiss it just yet as fucking impossible. Just remember that Scotland is the happy place where things that can't happen in a billion years do happen every other day. And that polls say that a SNP-Lab Pact would have the largest number of MSPs of any possible coalition. Just basic maths here, mates.

Sweep through the heather like deer in the glen, carry me back to the days I knew then

Nights when we sang like a heavenly choir of the life and the times of the Mull of Kintyre

(Paul McCartney, Mull Of Kintyre, 1977)

Let’s defend the principle of a society that cares for everyone and everyone cares for everyone else.

(Jeremy Corbyn)

There is a problem of trust in politicians in Scotland like everywhere else in Britain. Many will argue the root of it is that there is a problem with Scottish politicians. All have demonstrated an uncanny ability to totally ignore everything that anyone disagreeing with them says. Or, in the case of the Yellow-Green Axis, to denounce everything that goes against the tenets of their variant of wokeism as right-wing, bigoted or whatthefuckever. To the point that nobody gives a shit anymore about what most Scottish politicians have to say, as it has become more formulaic and predictable than Columbo screenplays. Their priority should instead be listening to the people, even when they don't like what they're hearing. Our last two Full Scottish polls have surveyed that, each in their own special way. First Savanta asking their panel what are the most important issues facing Scotland at the moment. And finding that there are lots of similarities to what an English panel would answer.

It's interesting to see that, apart from more interest for Brexit and Independence, the SNP voters do not think massively differently from the rest of the population, and identify pretty much the same major issues. The panel's replies also show that there is no Scottish exceptionalism when people are asked to identify their main concerns. Of course Savanta used a prepared list of prompts that, except for Independence, matches the one they use for similar GB-wide surveys. And the main concerns are obviously similar, as they also are in other countries across Europe. Now the logical follow-up question is what the government should do about all that. Panelbase went down that road, asking their panel which should be the priorities for the new SNP leader. Their words, not mine. He's not that new anymore, even looks tired already, but the replies are relevant nevertheless. And they do match the results of the Savanta survey quite nicely.

Panelbase were a bit mischievous in including the Gender Recognition Reform in their prompts. Because they have already polled their Scottish panel about it several times, and could have predicted where it was going. But I do like their brand of mischief here, as it clearly says that Scots don't give a fucking shit about the gender thing, and SNP voters are no exception. The Scottish Government has to focus on what does not work, or is being questioned by the public. Saying that it's still better than in England no longer cuts it. The Scottish public do have a right to expect better than simply average, and to hold the Scottish Government to account. A lot can be done even within the limits of devolution, no ifs and no buts. And we have a right to expect more and better than from the English Government. Using their failures as a shield from criticism is just smoke and mirrors, and is no longer acceptable, if it ever was.

I must confess it felt a bit odd, in retrospect, typing that part on the afternoon Winnie Ewing's death was announced. She was an inspiration for so many people of different generations and backgrounds, and that moment in 1999 is now forever part of our history and her legacy. As Alex Salmond wrote in his tribute, she was one of those few politicians who make the political weather. And she made it for many years after her retirement from active politics, as many others kept the flame alive. RIP Madame Écosse. You fought well. The dream will never die.

We can’t all be free spirits, floating around the world in search of enlightenment.

(Luke Dunlow, Midsomer Murders: For Death Prepare, 2023)

There’s a lot of TV shows about the disenfranchised North. I mean, it’s like, if you’re poor

and working class, you’re somehow more authentic artistically. I mean, since ‘Kes’.

(Sally Phillips, Meet the Richardsons, 2023)

After their presidential election in 1980, the American punditariat came up with the concept of 'Reagan Democrats'. Voters who had supported the Democratic Party for years, then switched to the Republican Party, based on the amalgamation of two feelings. That Ronald Reagan had a better vision for the sunlit uplands of a revived American Dream, and that Jimmy Carter did not have 'what it takes', whatever this actually means in practical terms. These voters came back to the fold only when they convinced themselves that the Democrats were at last offering a better alternative, and that was Bill Clinton. Similarities with British politics in the same period are quite obvious, so I won't spell them out. There is also a parallel with what we experienced in 2019, the emergence of a 'Johnson Labour' in the parts of the North and Midlands the punditariat then singled out as the Red Wall. But this odd coalition has a shorter half-life than the Reagan Democrats, as it is falling apart under our eyes just four years later. We've had more evidence of that in Redfield & Wilton's latest instalment of their Red Wall polling.

These results are not representative of the whole of the North and Midlands, as they are based on a selection of panelists from 40 constituencies that transitioned from Red to Blue during the Johnson Era. But are now ready to detransition, and are thusly quite representative of patterns seen elsewhere in these regions. Current generic polling implies that the swing towards Labour would be around 7% in the North West and North East, which is already quite remarkable in regions where Labour stayed ahead in 2019. And somewhere between 12% and 15% in Yorkshire, where Labour held a narrow majority of seats while the Conservatives came first in the popular vote. So a swing of nearly 16% in Redfield & Wilton's select panel definitely looks plausible and credible. But it does not mean voters are ready to grant Labour an unconditional blank cheque, as the poll found from another question about the level of trust their panel have in the two parties, on a number of issues that will surely feature prominently in the campaign.

On average, 41% of the panel trust Labour significantly or fairly, and 33% do not trust them at all. The proportions are reversed for the Conservatives, whom 33% of the panel trust and 42% distrust. So we have again this enduring and endearing paradox here, that fewer people trust Labour than would vote for them, but more people trust the Conservatives than would vote for them. Quite awkwardly for Labour, this pattern extends to the panel's assessment of the two rival leaders. Keir Starmer leads Rishi Sunak by only 9% as the best Prime Minister, while Labour lead the Conservatives by 22% in voting intentions. More significantly, Sunak beats Starmer on a few of the selected items that are supposed to define their abilities for the Big Dog slot.

Basically, Starmer gets summat like a C on many key issues, which is not the most encouraging verdict. He is not even really seen as representing change or offering hope for the future, which is definitely worrying for somebody who is supposed to do just that after thirteen years of failed Conservative governments. One explanation might be that people doubt his ability to keep his promises. Starmer can only blame himself for this, and the way he reneged on some important leadership campaign pledges. His willingness to compromise with a more centrist Weltanschauung might help him gather support within the Parliamentary Labour Party, but is not what Red Wall voters expect. Once again, Starmer is caught between a rock and a hard rock, the conflicting expectations of the various tribes within Labour's potential electorate. He just has to make sure that his exercise in tightrope walking does not end in a fatal fall.

You can’t just pretend you’re from the North. Not when you’ve never gone with a note to get your mam ten

fags. Not when you’ve not sat with a packet of Quavers for nine hours while your parents got pissed all day.

(Lucy Beaumont, Meet the Richardsons, 2023)

I think Nadine Dorries is very confused, because there is a process.

Which is, if nobody wants you to become a Peer, you don't become one.

(Ian Hislop, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Did you know that Ainsty is neither a town nor a village in Yorkshire? It's actually a medieval district, the wapentake of the Ainsty of York. Definitely a scent of Ye Olde Englande here, as in those mythical entities like the Chiltern Hundreds and the Manor of Northstead. And now we got a by-election there, prompted when Nigel Adams transitioned from MP for Selby and Ainsty to Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Manor of Northstead to show his unwavering loyalty to Boris Johnson. I'm gonna try my usual game here, comparing the Commons elections for this seat and the Council elections for the wards located within the constituency. It's in North Yorkshire, where Council elections were held in 2017 and 2022, so we have two snap generals to factor in between. The two results for 2017 are quite similar, but there are definitely hints of discontent in the 2022 Council results. And it's more than hints if you believe what The Hipstershire Gazette brought back from their trip through the sparsely populated posh wilderness around Downton Abbey. Recent polls, where Labour are credited with a double-digit lead all across England, say a razor-thin Labour gain there is the most likely outcome. And even more likely if Boris and the boys continue their pissing contest with Rishi Sunak, and confirm their status as Labour's most convincing electoral agents.

Now you can't have a by-election in the North without one in the South too. That's leveling down for you, mates, as the other one was triggered by Nadine Dorries standing down as MP for Mid Bedfordshire. Or not. Or maybe in a few days, just to play mind fuck with Rishi Sunak, also as a show of faith in Boris Johnson. But I'm ready to believe that Nadine was not being deliberately mischievous here, as she is not smart enough for that. And that she genuinely thought she was the victim here, and that the truth had to be told. At first glance, it would seem the situation is not as bad for the Conservatives as in Yorkshire, as the bulk of voters who go Independent at Council elections switch back to the Conservatives at generals. But the regional crosstabs of current polls consistently find Labour leading by a handful of points in East Anglia, where the Conservatives led by almost 33% in 2019. So the chemically pure maths also have this one as a narrow Labour gain. When, just a few months ago, this was widely rumoured as Boris Johnson's 'safe' fallback option in case Uxbridge and South Ruislip became too hot to handle. Tempus fugit.

And suddenly, totally out of the blue (pun intended), came yet another by-election. In Somerton and Frome, Somerset, apparently with no link to the whole Johnson brouhaha. It's more like sitting MP David Warburton feeling oppressed and marginalised by the Conservative Party while being investigated on several counts of sexual misconduct that also involved cocaine and Japanese whiskey, plus summat about concealing having received Russian dark money. So he jumped before he was pushed, though the investigation had revealed nothing really out of the ordinary for a Conservative MP. Recent Council elections down there are one of a kind. In 2019 they were fought for four District Councils, with wards from Mendip and South Somerset districts covering the constituency. In 2022 they were fought for one new unitary authority, Somerset County Council, with the number of seats cut by half. Another local oddity is that a lot of voters chose the LibDem for Council and the Conservatives for Commons in 2019. Now they have the opportunity to correct this and align their Commons vote on their last Council vote. To cut it short, in the current context, I can't predict anything but a LibDem gain here. Unless the LibDem candidate proves to be better at shooting herself in the foot than any third rate candidate the Conservatives come up with.

In the end, all calculations and extrapolations will be in vain, mark me. Supporters of Rishi Sunak seem to have got the gist of the stunt, though it took them a few days to get it, even if the plan was pretty transparent. The Yorkshire and Bedfordhire seats, and the one in London we'll discuss further down the line, were already lost the second the sitting MPs resigned. Not because Labour or the Liberal Democrats will do especially well, but because the name of the game is Throw The Election, to piss off Rishi and his fan-club. All three former MPs surely have enough supporters in the local Conservative Associations to make that happen, and I have no doubt it will. CCHQ have already resigned themselves to a hat-trick of a triple whammy, so voters should not disappoint them, should they? Losing the Somerset seat too will just be the icing on the cherry at the top of the tree. And, while we're here, methinks we shouldn't jump to a misogynistic conclusion about the way Nadine Dorries bullied poor Rishi Sunak, demanding the disclosure of her HOLAC assessment, which she knew was unlawful. She was not acting out of an entitled sense of privilege, she was just gathering material for her next novel.

No writer worth his salt can resist a good story. Just as no politician can resist making promises he can’t keep.

(Frank Underwood, House Of Cards: Chapter 31, 2015)

There was a brilliant tweet from one of Boris's supporters, James Duddridge, that said,

"What do people want, do they want to put him in the stocks? Do they want people pelting him

with rotten eggs?". And you thought, why ask a question that you already know the answer to?

(Helen Lewis, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Redfield & Wilton have also just updated their fortnightly Blue Wall polling. If anyone at Labour HQ read it, it must have been music to their eyes, and a worth-waiting-for coda to a sequence that saw them receive extremely good news from Scotland. Not only are they still leading the Conservatives in the once Blue and still Leafy South, but the poll found that their lead there has increased over the last two weeks, while it had been slowly but regularly going down for some time. Labour are not back to the crushing double-digit leads they enjoyed at the beginning of the year, but 7% ahead in a representative cross-section of that part of England is something that even Tony Blair did not achieve at any election. It is actually lower than current polls find in that part of England, and there is a visible reason for that. The Liberal Democrat vote is much higher than average in Redfield & Wilton's selection of Blue Wall constituencies, which bites into the Labour vote as many voters down there are quite open to tactical voting.

There are some compelling reasons why the once Leafy South is so convincingly rejecting the Conservatives. Just look at Cornwall, now receiving just about 5% in 'leveling up' funding of what they received in European Union subsidies. And literally seeing their beaches drenched in shit after every rainfall. That makes you think twice about voting for the same lot again, doesn't it? It translates into a staggering 18% swing from the Conservatives to Labour in the poll's selection of seats, which totally fits with what generic polls find, an average 21% swing all across the South. The higher Liberal Democrat vote again easily explains the lower swing to Labour. It does not get better for the Conservatives in the multi-item question about whom the panel trust or don't.

Quite ironically, the results here are better for Labour than what Redfield & Wilton found with their Red Wall panel. On average of all topics surveyed, only 35% of the Blue Wall panel trust the Conservatives and 38% don't, which is slightly less damning than the Red Wall panel. But 44% trust Labour and 28% don't, double the net positive found in the Red Wall poll. If you read between the lines, there is more than disappointment with inefficient MPs and Ministers here. It goes further and deeper than that, a genuine sense of betrayal by people who had been the Kings Of The Hill for times immemorial. Some parts of Hampshire or Surrey have known nothing but Tory MPs since 1885. It's in the people's blood and genes, and now they find out they've been taken for turnips just like the oiks in the North. People have murdered for less, and now the Conservatives are facing a bloodbath in Middle England too. Even Rishi Sunak, who should be the secret crush of all the pink-gin-sipping lilac-haired Miss Marples Doon Sooth, fails to make his case against Keir Starmer.

Interestingly, the average ratings are better than with the Red Wall panel for both men. 31% vs 27% for Rishi Sunak, 34% vs 33% for Keir Starmer. And Starmer still wins, in a way reminiscent of a lot of generic GB-wide 'Preferred Prime Minister' polls. I'm not saying there is no hope of a recovery for Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives in the Home Counties. They have rebounded in polls down there earlier this year. But only to fall again. And there is a sharp sense of incoming doom within their ranks, which is quite commonly a prelude to actual doom. The only monkey wrench in the cogs might be Keir Starmer again making an arse of himself, which he is quite prone to. Or Labour collectively losing the plot, because they are unable to reconcile the aspirations of vastly different tribes under the big tent. Been there, done that too already. The only mitigating factor is that current polling grants them a massive harvest of gains in the South, something that might prove impossible for the Conservatives to turn around.

Normally, we go through the Honours list looking for people who are dodgy.

This year, we went through looking for anyone who wasn't.

(Ian Hislop, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

Greenwich Council are set to vote on a ban of ice cream vans across a number of its parks. A spokesperson

told The Times that the vans cause "unacceptable levels of nuisance". Must be all those happy children.

(Clive Myrie, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

The Next Big Thing in London politics is the by-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, recently vacated by its MP of eight years, Boris Johnson, when he petulantly transitioned to Crown Steward and Bailiff of the Chiltern Hundreds of Stoke, Desborough and Burnham. Though actual time spent by Boris in the constituency is far below time elapsed, as he never lived there. Even his long-winded, self-serving and conspiracist resignation letter was sent from many a mile upriver, from a donor-funded retreat in Oxfordshire. As the final touch, we also have a poll conducted by Lord Ashcroft, a week before The Boris threw the toys out of the pram. Or, as the template used for the publication of results betrays, conducted by YouGov acting as Lord Mikey's proxy. The upside of that poll is that they used an actual list of known local candidates, not the usual generic list of party names. The downside is that it was fielded before Boris's histrionic exit-stage-left, and even so I have a hard time believing Bozo could still attract half the voters on his name only.

Admittedly, this is the most Conservative part of the most Conservative Borough in West London. Admittedly, Labour's candidate Danny Beales walks and quacks like a ticking time-bomb waiting to happen, and could very well end up as Keir Starmer's Jared O'Mara if he manages to get elected, an embarrassing maverick worse than even Lloyd Russell-Moyle. But, again, this trio of by-elections is not about numbers. Or fitness to represent a constituency you haven't been in, let alone lived in, for the last ten years because you were busy sitting in a Council halfway across London. Or personalities. Or even logic. Though I'm a strong believer in the logic of the Throw The Election game, and there is no better place to make it happen than this one. In the aforementioned totally impartial poll, Mikey Ashcroft also asked YouGov to poll the good people of Uxbridge and South Ruislip about their assessment of The Boris as Prime Minister and constituency MP. And it shows Boris Johnson still enjoying a fair level of support, and a very high one among local Conservatives. So my assessment is definitely that this seat is Boris's to win. For Labour.

Once this is behind us, the Next Next Big Things are the elections for the London Assembly and the Mayor of London. Both will be held on 2 May 2024, the same day as the next local elections in select parts of England. Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan will stand for an unprecedented third term as Mayor. This could be more difficult than he expects, thanks to a change in the electoral law from Supplementary Vote to the classic First Past The Post. Khan can thusly no longer count on reinforcements from Liberal Democrat and Green voters, that pushed him past the majority hurdle at the 2021 election. The Assembly elections have not been polled so far, but Redfield & Wilton have just published the first poll of the Mayoral race. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have not selected their candidates yet, so theirs are generic voting intentions at this stage. Redfield & Wilton have tested two scenarios, a classic one, and one with Jeremy Corbyn standing as an independent. Neither look fantastic for Khan, especially when you add the switches from the 2021 vote. A Corbyn candidacy would even put Khan within striking distance of the proverbial generic Conservative.

Labour HQ should not underestimate Corbyn's nuisance potential here. He has jack shit to lose now and they have fuck all leverage on him. There is also no law against Corbyn standing as an independent for Mayor and MP for Islington North at the same time. So there's summat of a danger zone ahead for Khan, if Corbyn decides to play Total Mind Fuck with him. In an odd move, that is not necessarily the best choice in an already confrontational environment, Khan has chosen to enforce his own variant of the vocabulary police on official documents. Let's be clear, I totally support removing 'illegal alien' from official publications, because of the too obvious subtext. Provided that stops short of censoring one Genesis song from the happy shiny 1980s. But banning 'male', 'female' and 'ladies and gentlemen'? What the fuck? I really feel bad having to say it, but I'm with the Conservatives here, who hit at that as out-of-touch elitist virtue-signalling. Which of course would be more credible if the Conservatives did not relish in their own out-of-touch nationalist dogwhistling. But you don't look a gift horse in the arse, do you? And Team Blue have a self-engineered problem of their own, finding a mayoral candidate that is neither a member of Rishi Sunak's government, nor a supporter of Boris Johnson. Maybe they should endorse Count Binface this time, instead of going on with a divisive selection that will end up delivering Mister Nobody.

Boris would have got a 90-day suspension, although they might now take away his free

pass to the Parliamentary Estate, so he won't be able to get reduced price canteen food.

(Helen Lewis, Have I Got News For You?, 16 June 2023)

If we never did anything we shouldn’t do, we’d never feel good about doing the things we should.

(Frank Underwood, House Of Cards: Chapter 17, 2014)

I would be in dereliction of duty if I did not tell you more about Boris Johnson's latest adventures. Boris can't live without being the centre of attention, and has managed to keep himself part of the news cycle, though everything about him sounds like old news by now. It's not unlike Philip Schofield making the rounds on breakfast TV with endless self-pitying sob stories. Or Nadine Dorries entertaining the same with previews of her next novel about that working-class girl whose most cherished dream was crushed by a jealous Establishment patriarchy. But there is a lot of Schadenfreude in watching Boris becoming a better electoral agent for Labour than Owen Jones for the Conservatives, and relentlessly broadsiding what's left of Rishi Sunak's sinking ship. Thank Dog we have YouGov to keep us posted about what the British public think of The Boris. Acting as their true selves this time, not as the front for the staffless Mikey Ashcroft. First things first, the people's feelings about what was at the heart of the House of Commons' inquiries, and how Conservative and London voters differ from the average Brit. Or not.

It's good to see that even Conservative voters have a hard time believing that the Privileges Committee acted as a kangaroo court pursuing a witch-hunt. And also quite entertaining to see how few of them concede that the inquiry was fair, when many more admit that Boris was guilty as charged, and of more than was on the table during the proceedings. We know now that the sanction would have been a 90-day suspension. It could have been worse, as the Committee has the power to recommend longer suspensions or expulsion from Commons, and the confirmation vote in the full House is usually just a formality. The last time a sitting MP was expelled was in 1954, as all who would have faced expulsion since, usually because of criminal charges, were graceful enough to resign before the sanction was announced, or sly enough to appeal a guilty verdict, which suspends proceedings in the House. Boris' 90-day suspension is the second longest since 1945. The record holder is Keith Vaz, former Labour MP for Leicester East, who was suspended for six months for having proposed to pay male prostitutes with cocaine. Having established that the Privileges Committee was not a kangaroo court, let's see now what the British public think of the sanction itself, on a scale from 'not harsh enough' to 'too harsh'.

The significant number is how many think the sanction was not harsh enough. There are many reasons why so many people would think so. Having seen loved ones die alone of Covid while wild parties were happening in Downing Street is one. Though I think the tipping point for many was remembering the picture of Queen Elizabeth sitting alone in the Windsor chapel during Prince Philip's funeral, and then discovering that, at the same moment, Downing Street staff were busy clearing up empty bottles, used condoms and puke in bins left over from an all-night rampage where Boris was seen. There is unforgivable, and then there is fucking unforgivable. The Boris had certainly realised that, and also that he was as out of road as Wile E. Coyote, when he advised his last couple of supporters not to fight against approval of the Partygate Report in Commons. The other items YouGov surveyed cover Boris' political status and future career, if any. And the verdict is again merciless for Big Dog.

To put it bluntly, people are happy to see the back of him and hope he won't come back. Not really a surprise. Even Conservative voters think so, though they probably feel more relieved than actually joyful that he is finally gone. Probably with a tinge of nostalgia, as they were led to believe for so long that he was the solution to all the party's problems and the Bringer Of Hope. Then it turned out he was the problem with no solution, and the House Of Boris fell faster than it had been erected. The odds of Boris coming back are now basically nil. Rishi Sunak has the power to block his selection in any seat ahead of the incoming snap general. And, just like the proverbial dog licking his baws, he will do it just because he can. Look no further. And Boris has damaged himself even more with that job at The Daily Fail, that puts him at odds again with the ethical standards of public life. Even Boris' two remaining allies boasting that enemy-of-the-people MPs, who colluded in the witch-hunt, will be deselected sounds like hollow chest-thumping that will go nowhere. They no longer have that kind of leverage and they know it. You surely remember that time when a defiant Boris claimed that he would rather be dead in a ditch than not Getting Brexit Done. Turns out Partygate was his ditch after all.

There was a steaming mist in all the hollows, and it had roamed in its forlornness up the hill, like an evil

spirit, seeking rest and finding none. A clammy and intensely cold mist, it made its slow way through the

air in ripples that visibly followed and overspread one another, as waves of an unwholesome sea might do.

(Charles Dickens, A Tale Of Two Cities, 1859)

Jeremy's Den

23/06/2023

Goodbye To The Past

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