Westminster projection - 09.10.2018 update

Eyes Wide Open

Conference Season often brings out the worse out of the parties and this year was no exception. So the LibDems want a second referendum but don't want the other. Tories still haven't made up their minds about austerity and when to throw their own PM under the bus. And Labour are like "we don't rule out not ruling out killing off the Nats, or not". Nice.

So the party currently in charge have lost all sense of direction except the one taking the whole UK over the cliff. And the ones challenging them know no better than bashing Scotland because they finally realized many of their English members actually have a sympathetic view of the SNP and what they stand for. Sad.

Then all have been expecting some sort of Conference bounce. But looks like the Brighton bounce was wiped out by the Liverpool bounce which in turn died down after the Birmingham bounce. And in the end we're pretty much where we were not so long ago. Again.

Polls continue to paint a bizarre picture, swinging back and forth between the two main parties almost at random. Though they now do show a smallish Conference bounce for Labour, but not enough for a decisive victory. Yet?

Trends definitely show Labour closing in on the Tories but at a sluggish pace. They still end up in second place and at this rate they would need months to finish first. And they certainly don't have that sort of time if the snap GE actually happens in the wake of Brexitocalypse. Or earlier if Mogglodytes finally make up their minds on their home movie version of Night of the Long Knives and when to stage it.

Now more than ever it's up to Little England to make up their minds. London, Wales and Scotland have already chosen. London and Wales want to be represented by Labour. Scotland wants to be represented by the SNP. Only Little England is still sitting on the fence and still won't swing decisively one way or the other. More on this later.

Pictures of a City

My updated super-sample includes six polls fielded between 26 September and 5 October, so partly overlapping the Conference season. Sample size is 10,364 with a 0.93% MOE. And here is what we get:

Statistically we have a tie between Labour and Tories. We've been down this road before and already know it doesn't end well. And again only the SNP and the Liberal Democrats are doing well enough to improve their representation significantly.

Of course the current uncertainty also has a lot to do with how people see the Lady In Charge and the Pretender. This one is still really not good for Jeremy Corbyn as 'Preferred PM' polling shows. And these are the numbers after undecideds have been cleaned off. Because the actual preferred PM is either 'None of the above' or 'Don't know' depending on which poll you read last.

So public opinion send a mixed message. Not really sure they still want Tories in charge but still sure Jeremy Corbyn is a worse pick than Theresa May. Public opinion not really sure of what they want is no novelty and MSM these days are certainly not helping. When all you're after is soundbites all you get is soundbite politics and a soundbite answer to that.

One More Red Nightmare

Now here is the projected House of Commons on this polling. Tories 25 seats down but still the first party and Labour only 7 seats up so not yet on a winning streak. As was the case a while ago when we already had a tie between Tories and Labour, the net effect would be to make the UK ungovernable unless some unholy alliance happened. Like a formal Lab-Lib coalition loosely supported by the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Greens.

Such a result would only be an invitation to hold another snap election quickly to get a working majority. So 2019 could become one of those Years Of Two Elections like 1910 and 1974. Not that a second election would necessarily deliver a much different result, December 1910 did not. But Tories and Labour would probably agree on holding one anyway.

For the record, and one last time, here is what Electoral Calculus' Regional Predcitor projects when fed with the same polling data. Better for the Conservatives at face value but it's not like five seats would make much of a difference in this kind of stalemate situation. They would if they were the last five seats needed for a majority. Which in this case they aren't.

Just like last time only a few seats away from my models, and still showing mine just a wee smitch better for the SNP and LibDems.

Fallen Angel

Under current polling just 32 seats would be changing hands. Still far below what is needed for a clean change. And again the SNP being 11 seats up and the Liberal Democrats 6 seats up would make them the winners in comparison to the 2017 results. Unfortunately for Labour these would probably make them gaining only 7 seats overall less of a headline.

Even with Labour starting to make inroads deeper into Tory territory no senior member of the Cabinet would be in real danger. Just a few PPSs or PUSSs going down would not be a political earthquake especially when they hold positions the general public doesn't even know exist. And would anyway wonder 'what the fuck is that for?' if they knew they existed. And don't even get me started on what people might think a PUSS does for a living.

So MSM would have to be content with former glories like Soubry, Villiers and Rudd going down for their headlines. Though we all know some sort of totally unexpected upset might happen and probably will under the proper circumstances. Possibly in Wales or London if Labour somehow get their act together there.

Due to the lack of even a few juicy Portiballs moments, the most interesting situation here might be East Devon. There Councillor Claire Wright already stood twice against scandal-prone Tory MP Hugo Swire on an anti-austerity and environmentalist platform. Third might be a charm if she stands again so she might very well unseat Swire next time.

Technically Wright stands as an Independent but she sits in the same group as the Greens on Devon County Council, which is why I added her to the Greens' tally in my summary. And if she chooses not to stand next time, there is still a strong possibility Liberal Democrats could swing the seat as their voters provided the bulk of Wright's votes both times she stood.

The Law of Maximum Distress

Right now we have 52 ultra-marginal seats that might swing the election either way, 30 of them in England outside London. But it's not necessarily good news for Labour as Tories might have better chances for a majority in most of the English marginals.

Of course Labour might have some good moments like gaining back Copeland or Morley and Outwood. Best one could be unseating Iain Duncan Smith. But the general climate right now makes these less likely than Tories holding a few of these marginals by a hair.

Three of a Perfect Pair

Even with all the marginals reallocated to one side or the other, current polling still delivers an unstable situation with all possible majorities coming out of likely shaky deals.

Even a peak Tory performance would fail to get them a majority and the continuation of the DUP deal would only result in a three-seat majority. And in the end it might very well hinge only on DUP actually unseating Sylvia Hermon in North Down and the Lady might prove resilient enough to avoid just that.

Not that a peak Labour performance would look better. Being the first party would deliver fuck all unless they find a way to some loose big tent coalition. Which might be the recipe for an early failure to get anything done and pave the way to yet another snap election.

Fracture

Let's have a look now at the Geographical Divide across the UK. It's just as obvious now as in was in 2015 and 2017, even with voters slowly switching against the Tories. Scotland is still decisively yellow and London and Wales different shades of red. While England has somewhat moved away from Tory heartland to opposition-not-too-unfriendly territory, but not in the way that would benefit Labour most.

I left out Northern Ireland as different rules and voting patterns apply there, as Karen Bradley recently discovered. Anyway their 18 seats would not change the general landscape dramatically except for the amount of bribe the DUP would need and the kind of blackmailing they would allow themselves to indulge in to keep a Tory government on life support on a month-by-month basis.

Even if the Conservatives' lead in England outside London has shrunk dramatically from 2017 (1% down from 8%), Liberal Democrats are the ones actually snatching most of the disgruntled Tory voters (bagging 10% up from 4%) as Labour are barely level with their 2017 vote there. Which of course doesn't help gaining the number of seats needed for a successful UK-wide upset and confirms what kind of new direction Labour strategy should take.

Note too that Scotland has the highest anti-Tory voting intentions in all of the UK outside of London. Too bad Scottish Labour choose to ignore it and make the right decisions as they keep thinking that bashing the SNP and bedding with Tories on Councils is their best strategy. When it obviously isn't as they're still losing ground across all possible crosstabs pollsters can think of.

By the way we also know that Scotland is the most politically aware of all. Official statistics show we have the highest voter registration of all the UK though unfortunately it does not always translate into higher turnout. Which is something the SNP especially have to work on if we want actual election results to reflect the polls. And I can't help mentioning we also have the highest membership population-wise for any party. That is the SNP with 125k members or 3.2% of the Scottish Electorate.

The Divide is actually not just between England and the rest of us, neatly following Offa's Dyke and Hadrian's Wall. It actually neatly cuts midway through England. BMG Research routinely crosstab voting intentions with the NUTS-1 regions, aka the now defunct European Parliament constituencies. And here is what the average of their last four polls delivers, with the usual caveats about smaller subsamples. Plus the fact that BMG tend to be more Labour-friendly than others like YouGov so the actual situation might be 1 or 2 points more Tory-leaning depending on the region.

So we see the Divide again between Southern Little England and the Northern Powerhouse, broadly along the Severn-Wash Line as we've already noticed. And the more you move up towards The Wall, the more you wander into Labour heartlands. From deep blue South to still slightly purplish Midlands to rust red North.

Just bear in mind that Southern Little England has 44% of the English electorate outside London while the Labour-leaning North has only 33% and Midlands 23%. So a massive Tory victory in Little England, which FPTP makes more than likely, might be just enough to keep them in power no matter what.

We'll Let You Know

What will happen next is as always a matter of conjecture. The next batch of polls might actually show a Labour bounce big enough to get out of the current deadlock. Recent polling also shows that Boris Johnson becoming PM would boost the Labour vote. And so would Labour firmly committing themselves to a second EU referendum, whatever this would actually mean.

The combined effect of all these factors would probably be a 3% to 5% swing from Tories to Labour. And all of this happening more or less simultaneously is not that far fetched when you think it through. The irony being that it could actually mean the next GE would be decided by just a few votes and a few seats. And Scotland might turn up being the key to Number 10. Like 1974 all over again.

So the SNP might find themselves in the unique and bizarre situation of having to wish for Labour doing extremely well in England. Like a tsunami of Blairite proportions that would make half a dozen Scottish seats irrelevant as the outcome would already have been decided elsewhere. And even that might not be the weirdest situation facing us. Guess we have some interesting moments coming up before the next GE.

Best educated advice is to stay away from Ladbrokes for now. Odds are roughly 6-to-4 for Tories and going down, ain't good enough to risk serious dough. Just wait for further polling if we see some more solid direction in the next batch.

So stay tuned for further broadcasts.

Wha daur meddle wi' me

Umphrey's McGee's tribute to John Wetton (1949-2017)

© Robert Fripp, 1974