Technical note first. I have (at last) finished fine-tuning my own model for England (outside London) based on the same algorithms I already use for Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland and London. So I will no longer rely on Electoral Calculus for the English seats outside London. Expect some differences between their projections and mine as the methods are slightly different and we generally don't rely on the exact same poll-of-polls. But nothing too dramatic as we'll see later.
Perpetual Change
General Election polls are a never ending source of amazement. Here is what the September batch says. Anything from a 4% Labour lead to a 6% Conservative lead. Even polls fielded during the same week end up delivering vastly different results.
But what matters most are the trends these polls show over a longer period of time. Both major parties have had some slumplets and surgelets and in the end both are down from 2017. As was the case already a few weeks back, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats would benefit the most from this situation. UKIP are up too but not that it will do them any real good anyway (more on this later).
But what matters most are the trends these polls show over a longer period of time. Both major parties have had some slumplets and surgelets and in the end both are down from 2017. As was the case already a few weeks back, the SNP and the Liberal Democrats would benefit the most from this situation. UKIP are up too but not that it will do them any real good anyway (more on this later).
What this shows is that public opinion still has a hard time deciding which of the two main parties is the best choice. Both still appear as bad choices in the current context, even with no serious alternative in sight other than making the least bad educated choice.
The electorate being unable to form a strong and stable opinion about the two parties who will be in a position to form the next government is in itself a major issue. It only confirms that events of the last couple of years have really hurt democracy in the UK. Something nobody should take as good news. Especially as signs abound this has also been followed by a rise in sectarianism.
State of Play
My current super-sample includes six polls fielded between 18 and 25 September. Sample size is 11,185 with a 0.90% MOE. The voting intentions have not changed significantly over the last ten days but we have grown used to this, haven't we? So we're still in hung Parliament territory.
Interesting part in recent polling is that the numerous changes from one poll to the next tend to vanish from sight when we get to the rolling average. Differences cancel each other out in some weird way and we end up on the same trends as before, or very close.
As usual Conservatives have to rely heavily on Little England as their current voting intentions in London, Wales and Scotland are far from impressive. Though some would probably argue that they're still better than Tories actually deserve right now.
As usual Conservatives have to rely heavily on Little England as their current voting intentions in London, Wales and Scotland are far from impressive. Though some would probably argue that they're still better than Tories actually deserve right now.
Labour voting intentions are also rather unimpressive in all three cases. But the odd ways First Past The Post works mean that LibDems doing unexpectedly well in London, and also Plaid Cymru doing better than last year in Wales, would actually help Labour rather than hurt them.
Bring Me to the Power
As expected current polling once again delivers a hung Parliament with Tories 17 seats short of a majority and the Tory-DUP alliance 7 seats short. But Conservatives losing a dozen seats would not help Labour as changes would mostly benefit the Liberal Democrats (7 seats up, +58% from 2017) and the SNP (11 seats up, +31%).
The breakdown of projected seats by nation confirms where Labour's weakness lies. Potential gains in London or Wales are far from what they need for a majority and Scotland looks totally out of reach. And Scotland anyway was never the key to Downing Street except in 1964 and February 1974, two elections that were much closer then the next one is expected to be.
So again Labour should realize they have to allocate their most significant resources and energy in England outside London. They were 98 seats behind the Conservatives there last year and current projection has them still 92 seats behind. Prevailing in more marginals there is definitely the key to the election.
For the record, when fed with the exact same polling data Electoral Calculus' Regional Predictor projects this:
To Be Over
With this polling only 20 seats would change hands, again close to the all-time low in reliably recorded Parliamentary history. You certainly remember which one by now. Aye, December 1910.
Remarkably 11 of these 20 seats are in Scotland, with 2 other in London and only 7 in the rest of England. Wales and Northern Ireland would both return the same number of MPs for each party, even if possibly not the exact same MPs (think Ian Paisley Jr). Of course no big name appears on the list of those projected to lose their seats, so no juicy TV moment to be expected.
But seats mathematically projected to change hands are only part of the story. If past elections are any indication marginal seats might also provide some upsets. Though right now there are not enough of them to produce a political earthquake.
Close to the Edge
On current polling 49 seats overall would be in the danger zone. Meaning the swing required to switch them from the projected winner to the projected runner-up would be lower than the polls' MOE. Which differs from an area to the other as I rely on different polling data for each model.
Only 27 of the 49 marginals are in England where the real fight happens. And even if Labour did really well in all regions, they would gain at most 20 seats and this would be still far short of what they need for a majority.
And by the way you don't have to worry about the party leaders. Under current polling Theresa May would be re-elected with 60.3% (down 4.5%), Jeremy Corbyn with 64.7% (down 9.3%), Vince Cable with 66.3% (up 13.5%) and Ian Blackford with 43.3% (up 3.1%).
Parallels
The alternate projections we have after reallocating the marginals are again not satisfactory for Labour. Not that Conservatives should feel happy either anyway.
Even if Conservatives managed a clean sweep of all ultra-marginals they would still be 4 seats short of majority and hostage to the DUP. We know now that the DUP are not content with a £1bn bribe but feel comfortable with blackmailing the Prime Minister on major political issues. Obviously many Tory MPs are not happy with this situation and having to live with it. But would still have to swallow it again if Tories managed to win the election by a hair only.
On the other hand even a 'peak Labour' result on current polling would not have them winning and would indeed produce more instability. Only the most unlikely event of a deal with the SNP would allow Labour a majority, and not necessarily a stable and lasting one even if Jeremy Corbyn doesn't rule out not ruling out (or something of the sort) a second Scottish Independence Referendum.
Five Percent For Nothing
An aside now about what might (or might not) happen to UKIP at the next GE. As you might remember they fielded candidates for a GE for the first time in 1997 when they were in direct competition with Jimmy Goldsmith's Referendum Party. Better results at later elections never got them more than one MP outside by-elections. Two at their peak with by-elections included.
UKIP vote plummeted after the EU referendum, probably the direct result of them ruling themselves irrelevant after the Leave victory. But now, two years and two leaders on, polls have them up again and they might very well end up on about 5% which would be 1.7 million votes on a similar turnout to 2017.
Recent polling has them anywhere from 1% to 8% and trend has them on 5%, which of course is far from what would be needed to make a real impression. Last year they fielded a candidate in only 288 constituencies and lost their deposit in 250. Their surge in recent weeks is certainly linked to the perceived shambolism in the way both the government and the Loyal Opposition handle Brexit. Not that turning back to UKIP would change anything, especially as they too have embroiled themselves in some infighting of their own.
Their only (remotely) possible shot at a seat now would be Thurrock, as both seats they previously held (Clacton, Rochester and Stroud) have drifted far beyond their reach. They managed to turn Thurrock into a three-way-marginal in 2015 and it is also one of only two seats where they received a double-digit share of the vote last year. But even with Tories and Labour both down, an upset in highly unlikely and UKIP will most probably have to content themselves with a marginally good national result and no seats at all.
Right now UKIP probably have a choice only between becoming the English muppets of Steve Bannon's The Movement, or becoming a single-issue anti-immigration party as Germany's Alternative für Deutschland now that single-issue anti-EU is out of the picture. Neither of which I see as anything but a dead end as neither would gain much traction outside Southern Little England. But future polls will certainly enlighten us.
Tempus Fugit
Events will certainly take a faster pace after the Conference Recess though it's not yet totally clear what will happen. Technically a late November snap election is still feasible if Commons vote down Chequers. But Theresa May's fate might very well hinge on how many MPs on both sides have last minute second thoughts and choose to abstain rather than trigger the showdown.
Labour certainly count on some post-Conference bounce but they have to do better than just 'not ruling out not ruling out' major decisions, especially on Brexit. Conservatives can only fear more infighting during the next two days and also should know better than bashing 'Moscow-loving' Corbyn when the Moscow they have in mind vanished almost 30 years ago.
And both sides are certainly aware that a snap GE actually being called would reshuffle voting intentions dramatically. Which is the only way to get out of the current stalemate where nobody can expect a decisive victory and a snap GE would only open the door for another snap GE in a matter of months. 1974 all over again.
Even the SNP should be careful what they wish for. Current polling is strongly favourable and projects 46 seats. But so was 2017 polling when it projected well above 40 seats, and we all know what actually happened. Scottish polling proved unreliable last year and there is no reason to think it has become more reliable now. So the SNP shouldn't take any vote for granted and be ready for some dirty campaigning from Unionists.
Labour certainly count on some post-Conference bounce but they have to do better than just 'not ruling out not ruling out' major decisions, especially on Brexit. Conservatives can only fear more infighting during the next two days and also should know better than bashing 'Moscow-loving' Corbyn when the Moscow they have in mind vanished almost 30 years ago.
And both sides are certainly aware that a snap GE actually being called would reshuffle voting intentions dramatically. Which is the only way to get out of the current stalemate where nobody can expect a decisive victory and a snap GE would only open the door for another snap GE in a matter of months. 1974 all over again.
Even the SNP should be careful what they wish for. Current polling is strongly favourable and projects 46 seats. But so was 2017 polling when it projected well above 40 seats, and we all know what actually happened. Scottish polling proved unreliable last year and there is no reason to think it has become more reliable now. So the SNP shouldn't take any vote for granted and be ready for some dirty campaigning from Unionists.
As always stay tuned for further broadcasts.
Cha togar m' fhearg gun dìoladh
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