Jeremy's Den: What's New On Election Day?

You can propose as many alternatives as you like in your referendum

We will propose only one option in ours

We deserve a vote too on whether we want to keep subsidising the Scots

Who are always complaining about being occupied

(Jim Hacker, Yes, Prime Minister: Scot Free, 2013)

The rest of the UK doesn’t see why the students in Scotland

Should get free university education but English students don’t

Even if they go to a Scottish university which we are paying for anyway

They don’t see why they should pay prescription charges but the Scots don’t

I have no doubt that the UK will vote for full independence now

(Jim Hacker, Yes, Prime Minister: Scot Free, 2013)

Election Day it is, and in-person voting is already underway as I put the finishing touches to this. The upside of delayed counts is that you can still post a late rant and projection on Election Day itself. The other upside of course being that you don't have to stage an all-nighter with the dug asking for extra walkies out of the usual schedule. The downside is that we won't know for sure what actually happened until probably lunchtime on Sunday when all the numbers are crunched and the final list results announced. It does not mean we can't have high hopes, but just keep in mind that, in 2016, even the very last poll was somewhat off, overestimating the SNP vote by 1.5% on the constituencies and underestimating it by 0.7% on the regional lists, and underestimating the Conservatives by 3% on both votes. Which looks acceptable at face value as it was within the standard margin of error, and it was much closer to the actual result than any earlier poll. But, if it had been duplicated on Election Day, the SNP would have bagged 67 seats and a 6-seat majority instead of 63 and 2 seats short, including 65 constituencies, and the failed "Both Votes SNP" would have been the least of Nicola Sturgeon's worries. As always, the devil is in the details, and it would be really ironic if we were faced with the same situation this year. Then I will have my fingers crossed, hoping this photo from The National was premonitionary, and we'll get a super-majority or close to it, with the Alba Party doing better than the Greens.

Actually, we could even tweet updates until lunchtime tomorrow as the first counts will start at 12:00, but I definitely won't do that. I will be just preparing for BBC One's coverage, which will start at noon sharp on Friday, when there won't be anything yet to announce. But of course we must allow the pundits some time to draw definite conclusions from what hasn't happened yet, mustn't we? They will have a full hour to do that, before News At One rubs Labour's nose in it with full gory details of how they lost the Hartlepool by-election. Then we'll go Full Scottish again, but only until 8pm as we wouldn't want to cancel EastEnders for just some more election coverage, would we? But of course we will have seven more hours on Saturday, from lunchtime to the Celebrity Mastermind slot. I wonder if the election officials all over Scotland have taken their cues from the Line Of Duty writers, as tomorrow will definitely end on a cliffhanger with no region having returned all constituencies. Oddly, West Scotland will have only one count on Saturday (Renfrewshire South) while the other regions will be split 5-4 or 4-5 between the two days. I'm just slightly gutted that Edinburgh Southern will count only on Saturday, so we will have to wait to celebrate Catriona McDonald ousting Ian Murray's sock-muppet Daniel Johnson. But I'm quite chuffed that election officials in Highlands and Islands have decided to play it safe, with all three island constituencies declared tomorrow. I just hope they kept the ferries at the ready anyway, so we'll get the results no matter the weather. Let's just hope the Election Days finale won't be a letdown as Line Of Duty's was, which was really a pity after Martin Compston had so brilliantly backed the SNP and Independence, and telt Conservatives tae git tae fuck.

Scarborough is very picture-postcard, much prettier than Dundee, I think

(Johnny Vegas, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2016)

Did you know that, in Wales, sheep outnumber people three to one?

So there is not much to do except…. well…. things with sheep

(Jimmy Carr, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2015)

Before we deal with all the Scottish stuff, let's take a detour through Wales, where they have an election too. For the Senedd Cymru, formerly known as the National Assembly for Wales. The Senedd is elected on the same Additional Members System as the Scottish Parliament, with 40 Members of the Senedd (MS) elected in the constituencies and 20 on regional lists from five regions. The Welsh election has been polled far less than the Scottish election, and not generated the same level of interest in England. They have had only nine polls this year, while Scotland has had thirty-five, and two "last day" polls from Savanta Comres and YouGov, compared to our five from five different firms. Below you have the voting intentions based on the weighted average of these two polls, and the seat projection, factoring in the regional crosstabs of the polls like my Scottish projections. This is not all milk and honey for Welsh Labour, as their lead over the Conservatives has been cut by nearly half since the 2016 election. Five years ago, UKIP was the fourth party in Wales and then it imploded. Their MSs scattered to the four winds, some becoming independents, some joining the Brexit Party and then Reform UK, with a few founding the new nutjob party Abolish The Welsh Assembly (AWAP). But most of their voters switched to the Conservatives, a pattern Keir Starmer has seen elsewhere, hasn't he? Propel, formerly known as the Welsh National Party, are dissdents from Plaid Cymru. I guess the original name, which was rejected by the Electoral Commission, gives you a hint about where they get their inspiration from.. Though their poor performance in the polls makes them more like the Cardiff Variant of the Alba Party.

Despite some rollercoaster polling over the last five years, which at times pointed to a Conservative takeover of the Senedd, the last-day polling does not predict an earthquake in Cardiff. UKIP's seven seats will quite logically go to AWAP and the Conservatives. Labour are predicted to lose four constituencies to the Conservatives (Vale of Clwyd and Wrexham in the North, Vale of Glamorgan and Gower in the South) but will compensate in part with list seats, ending just two seats down. Plaid Cymru are predicted to gain one seat, and the Greens will enter Senedd for the first time with a list seat in the South Central region. Remember they are not the Welsh Greens, but part of the Green Party of England and Wales, the same as Caroline Lucas. And will gain their seat in a region that is mostly Cardiff and Cardiff's commuter belt. Guess they attract the same kind of metrocosmopolitan middle-class enlightened rainbow-socked youth as the ones we have North Of The Wall, or those they have Doon Sooth in the outskirts of Hampstead Heath. With such a make-up of the Senedd, it will be interesting to see how the coalition negotiations will go. Labour started the last term as a minority government in a coalition with the lone Liberal Democrat MS. Then First Minister Mark Drakeford beefed it up to a two-seat majority when a dissident from Plaid Cymru joined his government. Over the years, Welsh Labour have tried all the available options (minority government, coalition with the Liberal Democrats, coalition with Plaid Cymru), and are more open than Scottish Labour to exploring all possible options. So, if the election goes the way that the last-day polls indicate, my tenner is on a Lab-Plaid coalition for the next term.

Game Of Thrones is set in Westeros, a lawless country full of poverty,

Violence and dragons, like an upmarket Wales

(Richard Osman, 8 Out Of 10 Cats, 2019)

I recently bought a riverboat in Glasgow

Or, as we call it in England, a shopping trolley

(Jimmy Carr, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2014)

Pollsters have been quite active surveying the Scottish Parliament election and the hypothetical Second Independence Referendum, but also devoted some effort to the Commons voting intentions in Scotland. Which have not yet ceased to be relevant as I don't see any plausible scenario in which Scotland would be independent before 2 May 2024, which is by law the date for the next general election. Though of course the First Minister of England may choose to ignore it. Either by repealing the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, or by circumventing it in the same manner as in 2019. The same stunt, that was suggested by the Liberal Democrats and the SNP then, would work again if Boris Johnson saw a way to use it to his advantage. Which could definitely happen if UK-wide polls continue to show the Conservatives in the lead and Labour bound again for a disastrous crash-landing. The last snapshot of Scotland comes from Opinium, among dozens of items they surveyed between 28 April and 3 May for Sky News. It's fairly good for the SNP, though not their best this year. The Tories getting the same vote share as in December 2019 means there is technically a swing from them to the SNP, smallish but enough to switch their most vulnerable seats. But of course the SNP should be more worried about Labour increasing their voting intentions. The regional crosstabs also show Labour doing better than their national average in Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland. So Labour is still alive and kicking in the heartlands of the Auld Strathclyde, which could lead to some nasty surprises for the SNP.

What should worry the SNP is that a number of reputedly safe seats have turned into marginals. Among them is Airdrie and Shotts, and the SNP are definitely very unlucky to have a by-election there a week away. I won't bore you again with how they have really brought this on themselves, but I will not refrain from rubbing their nose in it if they lose it. Or not. You might remember that I rated this one as a 40-40 tie between the SNP and Labour when it was announced that it would not take place on the same day as the Scottish Parliament election. Polls since have confirmed this, as the one I had last week had it going 41-40 to Labour, and the most recent one is a 40-40ish tie. No cheating here, as the numbers purely reflect the national voting intentions, and how the regional crosstabs show Labour overperforming in Central Scotland. The most recent polls have the SNP's lead over Labour there on 10-15%, way below the national average of 25-28%, and of course projections for individual seats reflect just that. Especially in a seat with this profile, that Labour nearly gained back in 2017 with the Corbyn Surge. On top of this, Labour certainly improved their odds when they selected Kenneth Stevenson, Councillor for the Fortissat ward of the North Lanarkshire Council, instead of Pamela Nash, a former MP for the constituency and now CEO of the ultra-Unionist lobbyist organisation Scotland In Union. This might reflect the personal views of Labour members in the constituency, but is also a clever choice in an area that voted 51% Yes in 2014. Even the maths agree with that, with the most recent projection definitely making this a tougher than expected by-election for the SNP.

Oddly, the most disturbing news for the SNP have come from Northern England. A new Survation poll found Labour losing the Hartlepool b-election by 17%, with Keir Starmer also receiving dismal favourability ratings. This came on top of other polls showing Labour on their way to defeat in a couple of mayoral elections, also in Northern England. Keir Starmer tried to put on a brave face and play down too high hopes for Labour at the English local elections, but reliable sources say they basically have conceded defeat already and have withdrawn resources from the North. And have now unleashed the Red Stormtroopers on an unsuspecting Airdrie and Shotts. Gaining back a Commons Scottish seat is just what Sly Keir needs at the moment, when even a huge swath of his 2019 voters turned their back on him in Hartlepool. What actually happens in Airdrie and Shotts will hint at what could happen in some of the new marginal seats. Think Glasgow North East, Rutherglen and Hamilton West for those most obviously in the danger zone. Then Labour might just bide their time and wait until the next general election and the SNP fielding candidates against the Alba Party incumbents in East Lothian and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, which would switch both back to Labour with no specially strong effort involved. Just saying.

My plan shows that Scotland is an equal partner in the United Kingdom

And it’s full of marginal seats…. I mean depressed areas

(Jim Hacker, Yes Minister: The Official Visit, 1980)

Scotland is not at all that remote

It’s that pink bit about two feet above Potters Bar

(Jim Hacker, Yes Minister: The Official Visit, 1980)

As you surely know by now, the Magic Number today is 65. The number of seats the SNP need for an outright majority and no need for a government coalition, though the decision on this will be purely political and not dictated by the numbers. Then I guess the bookies' favourite this week was whether of not the SNP could reach the Magic Number on the constituencies only. Which is definitely a "mibbes aye, mibbes naw" situation, as polls have been going in all possible directions. Seat projections from the most recent polls say the SNP could bag anywhere from 59 to 68 constituencies. Odds are they will not lose any of those they bagged in 2016, save for special local circumstances. Yet there is also a plausible scenario where "no change" could actually be more of a zero-sum game, with the SNP losing a couple to the Conservatives while gaining a couple from Labour. At face value, the trend of the constituency voting intentions does not predict a doomsday scenario for the SNP as we have a whole batch of polls pointing to a vote share around 50%. If Labour end up on Election Day at the high end of their polling, the SNP might find themselves in tighter than expected races in a few seats like Glasgow Pollok, Glasgow Provan or Rutherglen. At the other end, a strong showing by the Conservatives is unlikely to endanger many SNP seats. except possibly Perthshire South and Kinross-shire. But its main effect would be to jeopardize possible SNP gains, especially in the South Scotland region, which might unexpectedly hold the key to the whole election. Three Conservative seats (Ayr, Dumfriesshire, Galloway and West Dumfries) and one Labour seat (East Lothian) there are clearly on the SNP's top targets list. Gaining all four would put the SNP three-quarters of the way to a majority on the constituencies only, and there are credible hints the SNP's lead over the Conservatives in the region might increase from a measly 8% in 2016, one-third the national average, to double digits. Which would still make it something of a Tory heartland, but would put their vulnerable seats within reach.

Some of key battlegrounds will shed light on one of the SNP's major contradictions in this campaign. Their sheepish acceptance of Green vanity candidacies in twelve constituencies. Will the Little Green Men hand Edinburgh Central to the Conservatives on a silver platter again? Will they jeopardise a possible SNP gain in Galloway and West Dumfries? Will they make the long wait for the results more stressful for the SNP in Edinburgh Northern and Leith, or in Paisley? Then don't expect any retaliation or even significant whining from the SNP if some trainwreck happens. They need cuddling the Greens for an agreement on a government coalition, don't they? Of course, there is another Magic Number out there. 86, the number of seats needed for a super-majority. Though bagging it, on a combination of the SNP, the Greens and the Alba Party, would mostly have symbolic value. Legally, it is needed only to change the electoral law, something no party has seriously proposed so far, and would be highly controversial anyway. Hoping that a super-majority could force Boris Johnson's hand, and make him agree to a Section 30 Order, looks delusional to me, though other political arguments for it do have weight. Then of course the likelihood of such an outcome will be determined by the list votes, and that's another and more complicated story. And this might be the point where the SNP regret having relentlessly savaged the Alba Party all along the campaign. Just saying.

The English don’t care about Scotland one way or the other

When you gave us devolution, you gave us certain powers

You don’t like our choices, so now you’re having a wee tantrum

Threatening to go home and take your ball with you

(Deputy Prime Minister Rory McAlister, Yes, Prime Minister: Scot Free, 2013)

Did you know, for example, hurkle-durkle is an old Scottish term

Meaning "to lounge in bed all day"

Hey, Scottish people, you can't lie in bed all day unless, of course

You've given the Domino delivery guy his own key

(Jimmy Carr, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2017)

The trend of voting intentions for the regional lists is definitely troubling for the SNP. Instead of the small surge seen in the constituency voting intentions, here we have an uninterrupted descent into the mid-to-high 30s. The very last poll from YouGov has 19% of the SNP's constituency voters shifting to the Greens and 4% to the Alba Party on the lists. The same poll says that two-thirds of the Greens' list vote comes from SNP voters on the constituencies, the other third being mostly Labour voters with a tiny group of LibDems thrown in for good measure. But we all expect that Alex Salmond and Alba will be blamed for any lousy results here, don't we? Even more so if the Alba Party overperform and reach a higher vote share than the 2-3% predicted by the last batch of polls. If they do, expect Big Eck to be once more savaged for "endangering independence", even it the math proves conclusively that Alba nicked a handful of seats from the Unionist parties and not from the SNP. And of course I would not object if Alba happened to nick a couple of list seats from the Greens too. Then the Tories might also face a challenge from George Galloway's All For Unity, who have basically turned into the British National Party in Scotland. There's actually a high probability they would nick enough votes off the Tories to secure a seat for Catman himself, in the Borders or on the Border, once he has sorted out which is which.

There still are a couple of trick questions about the list votes. What would be the best choice in Highlands and Islands? Andy Wightman or Alba? What would be the best choice in Mid Scotland and Fife? Martin Keatings or Alba? I would definitely go for Alba in Highlands and Islands. Wightman may have earned some badge of honour when he left the Greens seconds before being kicked out for opposing their genderist obsession. But deep down his stance on "local powers" is definitely devolutionist, close to Labour's "Double Devo" plan. His earlier statement, when he still was a Green MSP for the Lothian region, seems clear enough. But maybe he's embarrassed by it now, in the middle of a campaign where he has to seduce a fair number of Yes voters to get a seat in his new region. Which is not a valid reason to ignore a legitimate question about this, when asked already three times and still failing to give a straight yes-or-no answer. Pun fully intended and free of charge.

The choice is trickier in Mid and Fife. Keatings has definitely done a great job on the Section 30 case, and there is no doubt he is fully committed to Independence. He has also made a number of strong points supporting his candidacy as an independent with no ties to any party. So I would be split if I lived there, even though I would probably go Alba in the end. Not that it actually matters now, just hours away from the polling places closing. But, before all this big circus comes to an end, I must say I really appreciated the exchanges with Martin on Twitter. He did not shy away from trick questions, and managed to make his case in a very civil way, you might even say in a professional way. And in the end quite convincingly, even if you disagreed with him at first. Quite different to Andy and, if I may, better value for votes.

I wouldn’t stay at a spit-and-sawdust place in the East End of Glasgow

Not that there’s anything wrong with that

(Kevin Bridges, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2017)

A recent survey revealed that 61% of Brits can’t speak a second language

And in Glasgow, many people can’t even speak their first

(Jimmy Carr, 8 Out Of 10 Cats Does Countdown, 2015)

There has been quite a frenzy of polling in the run-up to the election, with seven polls released between the last two debates. Five of them were released on Tuesday and Wednesday, and could provide an interesting snapshot if they agreed. But of course they don't and the tiny differences between one poll and the next mean there is still massive uncertainty about the SNP bagging an outright majority or not. My own projection, based on the weighted average of last five polls and factoring in the regional crosstabs for over and underperformances, happens to be quite close to what you get on uniform national swing. As usual the larger sample tends to iron out the differences you find in individual polls. Both predict the SNP will win and end up with a two-seat majority. 65-63 if the next Presiding Officer comes from one of the opposition parties. But they might also argue that the past rota of POs means that it's again "the SNP's turn", so we would have an unwelcome 64-64 tie. Unless the SNP pull a stunt and offer the Chair to one of the Green MSPs. Don't rule that out just yet, just think twice about it and you will easily find the arguments SNP HQ could make up to support this. And stranger things have happened already, haven't they? Or we could actually have the dreaded government coalition, and it would not really matter if the headcount was 77-51 or 76-52, so even more reasons to cuddle the Greenies with that Chair and all its perks.

Of course this is, as always, a projection and not a prediction. Democratic elections are like a series of accidents waiting to happen, and you never know for sure what will come out of them, even if you have excellent polls. Finally, the last updated version of my projection of seats by region. The usual caveats apply here, more than ever, as we can't possibly account for all local factors that would trigger some upsets. One seat in particular has unexpectedly made its way up my to-watch list: Banffshire and Buchan Coast, that the SNP held on 55% of the vote in 2016. But the partly overlapping Commons seat, Banff and Buchan, is now the safest Conservative seat in Scotland. It is also the only Scottish constituency that voted to leave the European Union, though it is within the Aberdeenshire Council area that voted to remain, but much less strongly than the national average. On top of this, the SNP incumbent Stewart Stevenson, who succeeded Alex Salmond as the area's MSP in 2001, has decided to retire. This goes beyond removing the proverbial incumbency bonus from the SNP, as their new candidate Karen Adam has ruffled many a feather with her unwavering support for the genderist clique within the party. So I don't rule out some voters' rebellion that would deliver an unexpectedly high vote share to Restore Scotland's candidate David McHutchon despite their Eurosceptic and socially conservative manifesto. Then it might be enough to swing some of the never-mentioned SNP-Leave voters, plus a sizeable part of the anti-genderist SNP voters. If just one seat switches to the Tories, my tenner is on this one. Count there is scheduled for tomorrow, so the suspense won't last long.

So I will use this over the next two days, to check if the polls clearly reflected the true state of mind of the Scottish electorate. Which of course is again a "mebbes aye, mebbes naw" nail-biter. The most important part is of course the constituency seats. And any different outcome in the constituencies will mechanically reshuffle the list seats, so the number of list seats is the result to check here, rather than the exact order of allocation. Unfortunately we will not have returns from all the key battlegrounds tomorrow, but don't let that lay waste to your supper and a good night's sleep. Let's just hope everything will proceed smoothly all over the country and we have the final good news and bad news around suppertime Saturday. And bear in mind that whatever happens is just the beginning. And that the next five years will be quite interesting, to say the least. Be seeing you next week with the post-mortem.

Hopeless battles can be won, but only if you fight them

Even if you believe you are going to lose, you have to carry on

(Norman Tebbit)

Unfinished business tends to be something more life-affirming

Than beating someone up, just not if you’re Scottish

(Alex Millar, Being Human: The War Child, 2012)

The most recent Indyref polls have been quite a rollercoaster again, and mostly disappointing for the Yes camp. I have no doubt the Scottish Parliament campaign has had some influence here. The SNP and most of all the Greens have been known to make a better case for Independence in the past. Then the Unionist parties insisting on a "recovery first" priority in the short term may have influenced some "soft Yes" voters. Getting a referendum within the next two years is definitely no longer at the top of the electorate's priorities. But there is still strong support for holding it within the next Holyrood term, which might in the end prove a blessing for the SNP. They would have more time to rebuild a strong case for an Independent Scotland having better opportunities to deal with a slow recovery during the post-pandemic period. It would also give the whole Yes movement enough time to restructure itself, as new fault lines have appeared during the Holyrood campaign. I'm not usually one for too much caution, but it might pay dividends in the current context. Better get it right than get it right now.

The very last polls are also the least favourable, unfortunately. If you isolate just the last three, that were released in May, you get 47.7% Yes to 52.3% No when the fence-sitters are expunged. Factor in a 3% margin of error, and you can easily see that an hypothetical Yes victory would not be just far-fetched, but also narrow indeed. I'm quite sure the Unionists would be satisfied and rub our nose in it even if No won by the weeest of rat's ass' hairs. And then tell us tae git tae fuck noo, it was a one-in-seven-generations, so be seeing you in 2235. But we Yessers know that we would need a much wider margin to get the ball rolling without the fear of a "Florida 2000" scenario with, ye ken, recounts and court actions and the Full Monty and his python. We don't need to just win it, we need to smash it. Or, as the denizens of the Former Colonies would say, score a fucking slam dunk. I do think that the "we need a steady 60% in the polls before we do it" message should be kept quiet for now, as it may sound discouraging for some Yes activists, but 60% is probably what we would need to be on the safe side and avoid rearguard actions.

They want independence for Scotland? Give it to them.

It’s just that the balance of advantages and disadvantages of certain constitutional arrangements can become so unfavourable to the major entity as opposed to the minor or peripheral ethnicity that a judicious integration of possible disembarkation of the relations should be pre-emptively instigated by the former rather than attempting the perpetuation of a relationship which is inherently and indeed incontrovertibly prejudicial both to our own political interests and economic prospects.

(Sir Humphrey Appleby, Yes, Prime Minister: Scot Free, 2013)

Jeremy's Den

06/05/2021

What's New On Election Day?

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