Jeremy's Den: This Island Sucks

The problem with practical jokes is that very often they get elected

(Will Rogers)

If you can’t be a good example, try to be a horrible warning

(Stephen Fry)

The First Big Thing this month, in case you have already forgotten how the whole shitstorm started, was of course the Owen Paterson case and Andrea Leadsom's pro-corruption amendment, that pretty much woodchipped Commons' Standards Committee and the last shreds of respectability the English Government claimed to have. For once, I found myself agreeing with Keir Starmer here. Though his points would carry more weight if 27 Labour MPs, including himself, hadn't failed to cast a vote on an amendment that passed by only 18 votes. Of course, nobody expected what happened the next day: Jacob Rees-Mogg performing the fastest handbrake U-turn amidst peak hour traffic since Dog domesticated Man, and letting Owen Paterson hanging out to dry under the Brexit bus, with no choice left but to resign. It was very unfortunate indeed for Labour that this collided with the sentencing of Claudia Webbe, in her trial for harassment and threats. Labour have expelled her from the party, but nobody can force her to stand down if she chooses to appeal, so the Tories will have a field day with her being the albatross around Starmer's neck for the foreseeable future. Some, on the progressive side of the punditariat, wanted to convince themselves that the Paterson thing was Johnson's Last Stunt because public opinion had had enough of it. And, much to my surprise, it looks like this was actually the last drop that broke the camel's back. Voters who had borne with the Conservatives and their shenanigans for months turned against them in droves, as the trend of recent polls shows.

I would gladly wager a tenner that nobody, especially not Johnson himself, predicted the Category Five Shitstorm that followed the opening of this particular Pandora's can of worms. Owen Paterson soon became a footnote in the Book of Revelation of various MPs', the huge majority of them Conservatives, second and third and fourth jobs that earn them more than their constituents-paid salaries. Something else probably did not register on most peoples' radars, but is more important in the long run than Paterson and Webbe. The English Government admitted, in the dark nether regions of the Autumn Spending Review, that they don't have any way of assessing the "success" of Brexit, and all they have is "narrative reporting on progress". In plain English: unverifiable porkies, and I'll have more on that later. Pretty much the same as Wunderkind Rishi Sunak's Autumn Statement, which is now proven to be built on quicksand, as the UK is actually heading straight to a recession. And inane fearmongering from the outgoing Head of the Armed Forces won't provide a cover story for this. The only surprise is that Boris Johnson is still ahead in the "Preferred First Minister of England" polling. Though his rating has gone down sharply, it only spawned more undecideds as Starmer's rating has also taken a plunge. Go figure.

More than anything else, this says a lot more about Starmer than about Johnson. According to Opinium's most recent poll, only 27% of Brits see him as a Prime Minister in waiting, while 46% don't. People still see Johnson as a stronger leader and more able to get things done, conveniently forgetting that it often means getting bullshit done. Starmer is considered more competent and more likeable, but lots of people are simply neutral or undecided on the traits that would qualify him as the best candidate for PM. To put it in layman's terms, Beige Is The New Red just doesn't work. But even this might no longer be a problem for Sly Keir quite soon. Because Johnson's only way out of the Autumn Of Discontent within his own party feels like squaring the circle. His only remaining foot soldiers would be the 2019 intake of Red Wall MPs, who "owe" him their seats, but are also quite likely to lose them after a Labour surge. So the actual way out would have to literally be the way out: Bozo standing down, with all the risks involved in a divisive leadership contest. Whoever wins it, and my tenner is still on Rishi Sunak, would be tempted to call a snap election, both to clean the Borisian Stables once and for all and to get a personal mandate for a full term. If that happens, as I still think it will in 2022, all clocks are reset and all bets are off.

I think he honestly believes that it is churlish of us not to regard him as an exception

One who should be free of the network of obligation which binds everyone else

(Boris Johnson’s school report, Eton, 1982)

An ignorant person is one who doesn’t know what you only just found out

(Will Rogers)

Boris Johnson might have thought that throwing Geoff Cox under the bus looked like a good idea at the time. But it massively backfired as the one earmarked to become the scapegoat actually became the symbol of the whole shambles, and fuelled the already widespread belief that all of them are corrupt and out of touch. former French President Jacques Chirac, who had a colourful career himself, once remarked that "les merdes volent en escadrilles" (shit flies in squadrons). That pretty much sums up what has been happening to Bozo over last two weeks, with one lousy headline after the other. And he can't even rely on COP26 to boost his image, as by all accounts it ended in unsatisfactory compromise and fell short of expectations. This also had some influence o the current snapshot of general polls, which shows Labour ahead for the first time this year. My Poll'O'Polls today includes the last two, fielded by Opinium and SavantaComres between 10 and 12 November. Super-sample size is 3,979, with a theoretical margin of error of 1.55%. It shows that Labour, for once, have visibly made progress on their 2019 vote share, while the Conservative are substantially down. Compared to what we had two weeks ago it also shows the Greens down, with every reason to believe that the missing votes switched to Labour. The Liberal Democrats have gone up slightly, though still not back up to their 2019 vote, and with hints that it involves tactical voting in some regions.

This snapshot is unmitigatedly disastrous for the Conservatives, though the backstory is quite revealing of the opposition's current state. It has more to do with Johnson pulling a reverse Churchill, single-handedly defeating himself, that with Labour actually making the case for alternative policies. The only question now is whether next week's polls will be even worse. Which is quite a plausibility, with Jennifer Arcuri dragged downstage centre again, and apparently not against her will. Not that we will really learn something we didn't already know, but it's always fun to have all the juicy details exposed. Pretty much in the same league, Matt Hancock's story, about how he single-handedly defeated Covid on the beaches and in the streets, might be a good read. Though it now looks like this one is again a "Deal Or No Deal" story. And finally, the never ending list of Tory sleazers now includes Jacob Rees-Mogg and Douglas Ross. Who'd have thunk? I guess Bozo will now have to kick Jake under the bus, because he won't have the opportunity to use Doogie as a decoy, as the Scottish Tories will deal with him before that, as unceremoniously as they dealt with Jackson Carlaw. Interestingly Doogie's chronic incompetence has now boosted the SNP vote to an unexpected level, even bagging back voters who had previously switched to Labour. Nicola Sturgeon will certainly miss Doogie when he's gone, as he was reliably the SNP's best asset. Though I have a hunch that the Tories' next choice will be just as awful, so Nicola can keep using the proverbial argument that "at least, we're not as bad as the other lot".

Notwithstanding the huge amount of bad PR, there are still some blue islands here and there on this island. Like the one where the local Conservative Club think Geoff Cox is actually a clever fox, and praise him for the way he fed his stash. There's massive irony in this happening in Esher and Walton, Dim Dom Raab's constituency, as he would be among the first to bite the dust after a massive collapse of the Conservative vote. Of course the real test is not Labour doing better than in 2019, as it is the case everywhere except in Scotland, which is a lost cause for them anyway. The key is whether or not they do better than in 2017, and you already know the answer is "no" as they are roughly 2% below GB-wide. Right now Labour is 8% below 2017 in Wales, 4% below in the North, 2% below in the Midlands and 5% below in London. The only exception, and one we've seen coming for quite a while, is a bounce of 4% above 2017 in the Leafy Bluesy South, which accounts for a massive 43% of English seats outwith Greater London. The factor that helps Labour is that the Conservatives have gone down faster and further than Labour went up, everywhere across England but especially in the South. Partly because the Liberal Democrats are not doing as badly as you might think. They might be below their 2019 results everywhere, but they're also above their 2017 results, having kept votes they once snatched from the Conservatives here and there. So the various criss-crosses of a volatile electorate between parties end up giving Labour better chances at gains that you might intuitively think.

There are better things in the world than alcohol

But alcohol sort of compensates for not getting them

(Terry Pratchett)

This version recorded live at the Royal Albert Hall, London, 13 March 2020

Everyone is ignorant, only on different subjects

(Will Rogers)

The seat projection, as you might expect, is a massive disaster for the Conservatives. But a 3.3% lead is still not enough to grant Labour a majority of seats. Ironically, and you probably have guessed it already, the key here is Scotland. If Labour could still count on 40 Scottish seats being delivered at every election, a lead of about 3.5% GB-wide would be enough to overcome the amount of pro-Tory gerrymandering already present in the current boundaries. But, without their old Scottish seats, they need a lead of about 10% GB-wide to secure a majority, and it will only get worse if the Boundary Review's proposals are implemented without amendments. Which is of course the cornerstone of the Conservatives' masterplan to stay in power past their shelf date, the neutering of the Electoral Commission at Michael Gove's capable hands being only the icing on the pudding. Now, you surely remember that the bar, in terms of seats, is not set on 2017 (262) but on 2005 (316 when you deduct the Scottish seats except Edinburgh South), that would allow either a minority Labour government, or a majority coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Current polling says Labour would be one-third of the way between the two bars, meaning any viable government coalition would need a deal with the SNP. And that's where the fun begins, wondering which one would outbluff the other on the terms of the agreement.

The other projection models are more Labour-friendly, with an average of 287 Lab, 269 Con, 54 SNP, 17 LibDems, 4 Plaid Cymru and 1 Green, based on Electoral Calculus, Election Polling and Flavible, fed with the same polling data. But even with the least damaging variant, the list of Tory fatalities remains impressive. I won't bore you with all the 88 names, as many are actually just obscure backbenchers, but just mention the most remarkable ones, who would deserve their Portillo Moment, or Balls Moment depending on your preferences. They are a mash of former stars, current grandees and assorted minor members of recent past Governments. First perennial pests Douglas Ross and Andrew Bowie in Scotland, where the Tories remain strong enough to save their other useless four. Then Theresa Villiers and Iain Duncan Smith in London, and I have no doubt the latter would trigger massive festivities at Labour HQ and elsewhere all across the UK. There's also Alun Cairns in Wales, who fell from grace in 2019 after interfering with a rape trial, obviously not on the side of the victim. Plus an assorted Pick And Mix of 75 in England outwith London, including past and present glories like Steve Baker, Tobias Elwood, Conor Burns, Alex Chalk, Will Quince, Amanda Solloway, Chloe Smith, Chris Skidmore, Maria Caulfield, Iain Stewart, Michael Ellis, Stuart Andrew, Stephen McPartland, Steve Brine, Robin Walker, Tom Pursglove and Robert Buckland. And the best for last: Alok Sharma, George Eustice, Grant Shapps and Dim Dom Raab. The harder they fall...

With my model, the breakdown of seats by nation and region shows the impact of different voting patterns, that can be seen in the polls' regional crosstabs. And of course quite clearly where Labour's strengths and weaknesses are, which is not where you probably expect them if you're thinking in pre-2019 terms. I won't even mention Scotland, though I'm doing just that right now, because it's clear that Labour are stuck on just one seat for the rest of time, far from their 2005 and 2017 results. At the far end of the spectrum, Labour are predicted to be really successful in London on 52 seats (vs 49 in 2017 and 44 in 2005) and in Wales (29 seats vs 22 and 29 respectively), when they were down on even the 2019 result in both not so long ago. Another success in the South comes as no surprise, as it was already in the cards earlier, but has reached a new high with 43 seats vs just 22 in 2017, and almost matching the 45 they bagged down there in 2005. The Midlands are a mixed bag with 42 predicted seats vs 39 in 2017, but still far from the 64 held in 2005. Finally, the historically Labour-leaning North is a major letdown with 113 predicted seats, not even matching the 2017 result, and a long way down from 2005 (117 and 133 respectively). There the weaknesses are in the North East and the North West, as Labour would do better than in 2017 in Yorkshire and The Humber. Something that I saw coming too, since the Batley and Spen by-election, and is supported by recent polling.

Labour gaining ground in London, from an already very favourable position, might explain why the Conservatives feel nervous about the by-election in Old Bexley and Sidcup, though it is statistically one of the least likely to switch to Labour. But of course major upsets can happen, so I won't risk a wager on that one. For now. More damaging to Boris Johnson would be the loss of 32 Red-To-Blue Wall seats of the 2019 intake, 11 in the Midlands and 21 in the North. And that's toodle-pip to Bozo's Praetorian Guard of drooling ill-trained newbies. Just imagine the look on Bozo's face when he finds out his most articulate and experienced support up there is now Ben Bradley. The other 56 lost seats would probably matter less to him personally, as most of the defeated MPs would likely not have supported him in a leadership contest. Especially those from the South, who are much more likely to have been allies of Cameron and then May, and supportive of Rishi Sunak, or possibly Jeremy Hunt, to restore the traditional values of One Nation Conservatism.

A secret ballot would be inconsistent with the manly spirit

And the free avowal of opinion that distinguish the people of England

(King William IV)

Piano introduction © Colin Good, 2001

This version recorded live at the Apollo, London, 2 October 2001

Everything is funny eventually, it just takes time

(Roisin Conaty)

There is another major issue, and another major embarrassment for the First Minister of England, that has faded into the background right now: Brexit. Which, if you remember the previous episodes, was the cornerstone of Boris Johnson's Presidency... oops... sorry... Premiership, and the one issue that killed Labour in 2019. But pollsters have not forgotten about it, even if voters have. YouGov first asked respondents how they felt the English Government had handled Brexit. Unsurprisingly only Conservative voters give Bozo a clean bill of health on this one, as even Leave voters are more of mixed bag. All other political orientations concur that it was a fucking mess, a view also widely spread across all regions of England, and massively in Scotland. Even the South, who voted Leave more than the UK-wide average, are definitely unhappy about the results. Possibly because they have been on the frontline, and had to endure such absurdities as the massive and unused Brexit Lorry Park in Kent, or the red-taped queues at various ports. I have no doubt this played a part in them becoming Labour's biggest reserve of potential votes, as well as the site of many a major Tory trainwreck.

So the majority opinion is definitely that Boris and his sidekicks really fucked it up, and then fucked it up again. Which gives an interesting twist to the massive involvement of Leave supporters in the Paterson debacle, and how mashing the two together can become a great talking point for the opposition in the incoming snap election campaign. On top of all this, toning down the rhetoric a few notches about the Northern Ireland Protocol will probably help in the short term, but is unlikely to alter the British public's perception of the omnishambles. YouGov then asked their pool if the UK had been right or wrong to leave the European Union, and the results are again merciless for the Brexiteers in charge. The surprise here is how many Leave voters still think it was a good idea, when a large number of them think the goods were not delivered. Surely there is some warped causality at work here. Again, there is clear dissatisfaction in all the leave-voting regions of England, with strong pluralities thinking it was the bad decision, even if it looked like a good idea at the time.

The widespread buyer's remorse here obviously doesn't help. It's not like anyone has the keys to the DeLorean and we can hit Rewind. So YouGov stopped short of asking the £1 million question. But SavantaComres did ask it: what if we had the option to vote in a referendum about rejoining the European Union? The results are less clear-cut than you might expect from the vast amount of discontent and buyer's remorse shown by the YouGov poll. There is a strong plurality in favour of rejoining, but not yet a majority. The breakdown by the actual votes at the 2019 general election and 2016 referendum nevertheless shows an interesting side story. People who did not vote at either strongly favour rejoining, and are probably the ones who would carry the Rejoin option past the finish line, if an actual referendum ever happened. Since those are likely to be mostly younger voters, you might conclude that time is on the Rejoiners' side. But that might also be a hasty conclusion.

Because this is a rhetorical question about a highly hypothetical scenario, as nobody seriously expects such a referendum to be held in the near future, or even ever. Especially now that Keir Starmer has made it part of his "serious plan for government" to "make Brexit work", whatever the fuck that may mean after the massive failures we have seen so far. Sly Keir might have thought it made sense to shed Corbyn's ambiguity on the issue, but he has probably chosen the wrong way to do it. His own voters, and also those of all parties he would need for a government coalition, massively favour rejoining. Surely Keir wanted to avoid reopening fresh wounds, and pushing a divisive issue to centre stage again. But he also might have painted himself into the wrong corner here, just to avoid toxic headlines from the Murdoch fish-wrappers. Anyway, and just this once, I want my non-binary choice here. Not just Brexit vs EU, but Brexit vs EFTA vs EU. Then nobody will put that one on the table, will they?

If you’re going to make rubbish, be the best rubbish in it

(Richard Burton)

This version recorded live at the Royal Albert Hall, London, 19 December 1974

Light travels faster than sound, and isn’t that why

Some people appear bright until you hear them speak?

(Steve Wright)

Of course, pollsters thought the post-Paterson week was just the right moment to survey the electorate's view of corruption in UK politics. Definitely quite relevant now, when more and more people see Boris Johnson for what he is, a bent fly-by-night with the morals of a tomcat. YouGov asked their panel to what extent they think there is corruption in the UK, and their answer is merciless. There is a clear political divide here: the more to the left you vote, the more likely you are to acknowledge the reality of corruption, while Conservative voters are more likely than average to be in denial about it. No real surprise here, and it explains the geographical differences in the perception of corruption. Areas with a higher vote for left-wing parties are more likely to see corruption where it exists. The only exception is London, which pretty much fits the average profile of respondents. I have no doubt this is a key factor in the shift in voting intentions we have seen earlier.

Actually, the only amazement here is that only 80% of Brits see corruption embedded in the system. Especially now that the Conservatives have all their dirty linen waving in the breeze. YouGov asked only about a concept and didn't name names, probably fearing it would hurt the feelings of their friends in the Conservative Party. But Opinium had no such hangups and directly asked about some persons and organisations. And the result is devastating for Boris Johnson, his government and his party. Rishi Sunak does somewhat better, as people have probably noticed he did not cast a vote on Andrea Leadsom's pro-corruption amendment. So people probably grant him the benefit of the doubt, which is not the most comfortable position in such a debate.

Personally, I believe that Keir Starmer is not corrupt, in the monetary sense of the term. But, unfortunately, you can't say the same about the Labour Party as a whole. Just one word: Liverpool. I'm not so sure about Rishi Sunak, as I don't believe in the common wisdom that wealth makes you immune to corruption. On the other hand, Wunderkind has probably hoarded enough IOUs to last him a lifetime in his earlier career before politics, which would potentially make him more of a corrupter than a corruptee. Then I agree that the respondents got it right when they identified the English Government as an entity, the Conservative Party as an entity, and Boris Johnson personally as the worst offenders. And yet huge swathes of rural England, who can smell a rat when they see one, and should be the first to uphold "traditional British values" like honesty and whatsnot, are still ready to give the Conservatives a plurality of their votes, albeit by only a hare's breath. And I have a hunch even more would if the Tories ditched Bozo and propelled Wonder Rishi to the top rung of the food chain. One despairs.

The British people are degenerating into a nation of halfwits, someone has to act

(Sir Michael Fielding, Midsomer Murders: Master Class, 2010)

This version recorded live at the Royal Albert Hall, London, 19 December 1974

Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away

(Philip K. Dick)

Savanta Comres have also conducted the latest instalment of their Scottish Barometer for The Scotsman between 22 and 28 October. I have already mentioned the part about IndyRef2, as The Scotsman headlined with it ahead of the disclosure of the full detailed results. So let's turn now to the part about Holyrood voting intentions, and how it translates into seats. Obviously there is no buyer's remorse here, as the Yellow-Green coalition would be confirmed, and probably strengthened, if an election was held next week. I think a lot has to do with Nicola Sturgeon's personal image. Despite all the twitterstorms of disapproval, she still has excellent ratings in Scotland, where the most recent Opinium poll awards her a net positive of +16%. She is even seen more favourably than Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson GB-wide, where people are certainly influenced by her carefully crafted public persona. The numerous photo ops at COP26 did help here after all.

The most amazing part is that voters fail to see the kinks in the SNP's armour. I won't blame them here, as I also believed for quite a long time that it was better to "wheesht for Indy", even after I had started seeing some obvious cracks in Nicola Sturgeon's progressive-feminist makeup, and also identified some SNP MPs and MSPs as the bottom feeders they are. Don't ask me to name names, you all know the list as well as me. Now this last poll does not come as an actual surprise, as we had three in September which went pretty much the same way. Of course the next election is years away, and the Scottish political landscape will probably have changed dramatically in the meanwhile. The SNP will probably have lost their main asset, Douglas Ross, when the Conservatives fully acknowledge what a hopeless chancer he is, and dump him as unceremoniously as they dumped Jackson Carlaw. Another key factor will obviously be how far down the road to Independence the SNP have progressed, which might very well be "not an inch" and cost them dearly. So the result of the next election will be decided within the next two years, depending on what happens on that front, or does not.

The campaign for next year's Council elections promises to be interesting. And there will surely be a lot of irrelevant factors at play in it. The SNP will certainly try and make it a vote about Independence, though it has fuck all to do with it, as it's the only way to avoid being judged on their actual performance as councillors. There are many reasons to believe such a judgment would be quite harsh in many cases, Glasgow and Edinburgh being only the most obvious examples of gross incompetence. The various opposition parties will certainly try and make it a vote on the Scottish Government's policies, also totally irrelevant, but they might score some points doing that. Labour might find they have a good angle of attack with the chronic underfunding of Councils, and blaming it on everybody else, while the Conservatives would struggle with that one, as most of it actually comes from decisions made in London, rather than any made in Edinburgh. What might increase the uncertainty in these elections, is the number of voters who will use their vote to send a message about the management of schools, which is legally within the remit of Councils. The factor here is obviously the "inclusive" guidelines for schools issued by the the Scottish Government, and their blatant bias towards hardline gender ideology. One of the keys will be how many parents, even among SNP voters, will be incensed enough by these to vote accordingly, which would favour the Conservatives. Or how many pinch their nose and return SNP councillors despite their support for the Stonewall-compliant policies.

Surely just being around me makes you cleverer by osmosis

(The Doctor, Doctor Who: Under The Lake, 2015)

Jeremy's Den

15/11/2021

This Island Sucks

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