Scottish Westminster projection - October 2018 Revisited

Background: yet another new Scottish poll

Contrary to my expectations, we have a fourth full Scottish poll this month. First batch are still here: Survation for the Sunday Post (fielded 28 September to 2 October), Panelbase for the Sunday Times (fielded 28 September to 4 October) and Survation for the SNP (fielded 3 to 5 October). And now the new one: Survation for the Daily Record (fielded 18 to 21 October).

Here is what the four individual polls say and their weighted average. We've seen better results for the SNP recently. Especially the most recent poll, fielded after the SNP Conference, is clearly worrying. But bear in mind the weighted rolling average still remains better for the SNP than the 2017 results.

And here are the seat projections each poll delivers and what the rolling average says. Rolling average based on a super-sample of 4,090 with 1.49% MOE.

'Good' news is that even the worst recent poll would return basically a remake of the 2017 election. The SNP would lose North East Fife to LibDems but gain back Stirling from Conservatives. Bad news is that it also means SNP could end up with a net loss of seats if the actual vote is down to the lower edge of MOE.

But who's gonna be my MP now?

Here is what these four October polls would deliver. Seats by SLLM rating first and then the summary.

Just like with early October polling six seats would change hands. Five from Labour to the SNP and one from the Conservatives to the SNP. But the last poll also adds more uncertainty into the mix so nothing should be taken for granted, now less than ever.

Ending up six seats up from the last GE is obviously an excellent result for the SNP at face value. But, as usual, there are other sides to the story. Darker ones.

So what could go wrong?

On this updated polling 16 Scottish seats qualify as marginals. Including all six projected SNP gains. And this time five sitting SNP MPs are in the danger zone instead of just one in my last projection. David Linden, Chris Stephens, Angela Crawley, Stephen Gethins and Pete Wishart might find the next GE a tougher fight than expected.

This is of course still better than the 2017 result when 14 SNP seats were marginals, but definitely a more precarious situation than was projected from earlier 2018 polls. The frontier between marginals and safer seats has moved back into SNP territory but five Unionist seats are still endangered besides the six already projected to switch to the SNP.

After reallocating the marginals here are the possible ranges of seats current polling delivers for each party. Not as good for the SNP as previous projections as the worst case scenario would see them losing seats. Current odds are it wouldn't get that bad and the SNP would gain some seats anyway but the most recent poll should also ring an alarm.

And finally the full breakdown of seats, as usual from the worst to the best projected results for the SNP.

What to expect now?

As I said in my previous projection, we all know how quickly a seemingly favourable situation might take a turn for the worse. Which is just what the most recent poll confirmed. I certainly don't want to be overly alarming but the polls' trends are not what they used to be. The SNP steadily did better from the beginning of the year until summer. But now there's definitely a slump. And one that for once benefits both Conservatives and Labour, not just Labour as it did in the past. Reason enough to be more prepared than ever for any further upset.

So the two major steps I mentioned last time remain valid: massive GOTV effort and keep the GE campaign focused on the relevant issues. The SNP obviously can't afford to be dragged down to 30 seats as might be possible under today's worstest case scenario. Technically it would still be a majority of Scottish seats. But obviously the immediate Unionist reaction would be that getting barely 51% of the seats annuls the triple-lock mandate on holding a second Independence referendum.

Strong campaigning and a strong media presence are just as necessary as ever. Or else we might want to brace ourselves for more unpleasant news. More on this when we have some more full Scottish polls available.

So as always stay tuned for further broadcasts.

Cha togar m' fhearg gun dìoladh