The road so far
Once again Somebody Doon South seems eager to feel Scotland's pulse in almost real time so we got three Scottish Westminster polls this month: Survation for Channel 4 (fielded 30 Oct to 2 November), Panelbase for Constitutional Commission (fielded 2 to 7 November) and Survation for Scotland In Union (fielded 9 to 13 November). The SNP's Westminster voting intentions here are quite close to the Holyrood constituency voting intentions in recent polls which definitely sends a mixed message as it means Westminster vote is up while Holyrood vote is down. Good news though is that the last three Westminster polls show a slight SNP surge from earlier polling.
Here are the voting intentions these three polls predict when taken individually and their weighted average. Current super-sample is 3,336 with 1.64% MOE.
Interestingly the most recent trend again shows a slight swing from Labour to the SNP. As usual this will project into devastating results for Labour, quite predictable when looking at the change in vote shares from 2017.
The main swing is from Labour to the SNP with LibDems too snatching some votes from Labour. Greens and UKIP are also doing better but I think this will not materialize in the actual election. Polls implicitly assume all parties would stand in all constituencies which was far from true in past elections. So I guess Greens and UKIP will actually not do better than in 2017 as they again will field candidates in only a small number of constituencies. The Conservatives will benefit from the lack of UKIP candidates and might get roughly the same vote share as in 2017. The SNP mostly and Labour to a lesser extent will benefit from the absence of Green candidates though I think the 2% swing from Labour to SNP will stay.
And where does that take us?
The SNP nearly 2% up and Labour 3% down is bound to trigger some significant changes. Remember 20 Scottish seats were marginals in 2017 including 14 decided by less than 2%. Labour's lead in the six seats they gained in 2017 was barely 2% while the Conservatives led by 9% in the twelve seats they gained. So again the SNP would do well against Labour on current voting intentions while Tory MPs would prove harder to unseat. For now.
Here are the seat projections for the three polls individually and on their weighted average. Illustrating the Scottish electoral paradox: 39% at a Westminster election is a success and gains seats while 39% at a Holyrood election is a setback and loses seats.
Weighted average says the SNP would take back five seats from Labour (Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West) and one from the Conservatives (Stirling). Then the distribution of the 59 seats by SLLM rating is also pretty good for the SNP with 35 seats held or gained with a margin larger than the polls' MOE.
But of course the SNP should devote special attention to the marginal seats which might deliver either good news or bad news depending on which way the wind blows.
What might possibly go wrong?
Right now polls suggest we would have eleven marginals, down from twenty in 2017. Good news is that only three of the six projected SNP gains are in the danger zone. Bad news is that three seats currently held by the SNP are too.
Pete Wishart and Stephen Gethins might be in trouble which comes as no surprise as their seats were the two closest in 2017. Angela Crawley too as her seat was the closest three-way marginal in the whole UK last year. But as usual a lot will depend on whom stands against them. For example Murdo Fraser standing in Perth and North Perthshire would undoubtedly improve Pete Wishart's chances. And Tories might even be daft enough to actually select him.
Below are the ranges of seats that can be expected when moving the swingometer to the outer limits of MOE. These results confirm that Labour is in worse shape now than last year as they would lose at least three seats no matter what. And that Conservatives remain the clearest and presentest danger for the SNP though we can't rule out a Brexitocalypse backlash that would seriously weaken them especially in the North East. And possibly spell doom for The Rosses, aye this one (especially if Angus Robertson is willing to try a rematch) and that one.
And finally the fully seat breakdown as usual from worst to best for the SNP.
What to expect next?
Interestingly the most recent poll was fielded after 7 November, the SNP's dies horribilis in Holyrood and shows an improvement over the previous one fielded just before 7 November. So maybe I was mistaken in my assessment of that day's fallout or more probably public opinion make a clear distinction between Westminster elections and Holyrood elections and what matters most in each case. Doesn't mean the SNP shouldn't be vigilant about the state of mind of public opinion and act accordingly. Listen and explain, which does not mean bowing to public pressure. Clue: watch Macron and do the opposite.
With less than stellar results expected at the next Holyrood election, an indisputable victory at the next GE is more necessary than ever. The SNP have to focus their campaign on two major issues: Independence and Brexit fallout. Don't make the same mistakes as in 2017. Don't let yourselves be dragged into debating P1 tests, planning, potholes, bin collections or whatever outside reserved matters. This is a GE not a Scottish Parliament election or Council elections.
Stick to what makes the best case for Scotland and hurts Tories the most. Like reminding public opinion that Tories sold out Scottish fishing industry to get a better deal for Gibraltar only to get that deal vetoed by Spain and Spain de facto getting shared custody of Gibraltar. Then never fail to highlight Labour's never ending hypocrisy. Like when they voted against Full Fiscal Autonomy and devolving social security schemes and now urge the SNP to cure the fallout of Tory austerity Labour supported or abstained on. Make it the main talking point that both the Brexit bùrach and the Universal Credit disaster are the shared responsibility of Tories and Labour. And don't worry too much about LibDems as they will make the case for their own irrelevancy.
Above all make Indy a major campaign issue so that the first lock in the triple-lock mandate is not just renewed but strengthened by an increased number of seats. After all Thatcher herself made that point.
And as usual stay tuned for further upsets and broadcasts.
Cha togar m' fhearg gun dìoladh
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