Westminster projection - 04.11.2018 update

Idiot Wind

Public opinion is a strange beast indeed. When you least expect it, and when all recent events should lead to the exact opposite, polls show an unmistakeable Conservative surge. And one that goes beyond the Labour surgelet we had in July. Unbelievable as it may seem, Tories would do better in a snap election held this week than they did in 2017.

Trends definitely show it. The Conservatives are back in the lead and with a higher margin than last year. Even the LibDems surge that could have damaged Conservatives' prospects seems to be now dead in its tracks, though they would still do a wee smitch better than at the last GE. And the SNP is no longer on an upward trend, though also still doing better than last year. Full Scottish polls fielded in October show it as I already discussed in my last Scottish Westminster update.

So it seems we reached this twilight zone where democracy ceases to be an educated choice and morphs into a cross between delusion and idiocy. Which by the way you can blame on the Little England voters only as they still are the ones most likely to fall for Tory propaganda.

Sitting on a Barbed Wire Fence

The oddest part of this polling is that 'None Of The Above' is still the preferred next PM if polls are to be believed. But once this is taken out, Theresa May still wins over Jeremy Corbyn. Though with like 40% of respondents sitting on the fence this one is still far from a resounding vote of confidence. But May saved her ass for now in front of the 1922 Committee so she might not in such a precarious position as she was a few weeks ago, whatever polls say.

But of course the most important part is current voting intentions. My updated super-sample includes six polls fielded between 11 October and 30 October, all after the Conference Season and enough to get a fairly good idea of its fallout. Sample size is 8,288 with a 1.04% MOE. And here is what it says:

Saying that the Labour Conference failed to make the desired effect would be the understatement of the year. A 4% Conservative lead is more than we've seen for months and more than in 2017. Don't ask me what went wrong. Ask Jeremy Corbyn. And now their muddled stance on tax thresholds certainly won't help either especially after 20 Labour MPs defied the whip and voted against Hammond's last batch of artistically crafted tax cuts for the wealthiest.

Changing of the Guards

On these numbers here is the House of Commons we would get. Nothing like a major upset. More like taking us back just a few years as it would look quite similar to the 2015 House.

This wouldn't be a realigning election like 1945, 1979 or 1997. More like a readjustment election like most GEs are. Tories would just get a small but sufficient majority just as in 2015 and the upside for them would be not needing the DUP crutch anymore and all the bribing and blackmailing that goes with it.

Now you might notice that Tories would get 333 seats. Which is exactly half of 666. Just make the hell what you want of that 👿😎. And Labour would get 237, which is the number of the haunted room in Stanley Kubrick's version of Stephen King's The Shining. But again don't read too much into this either.

It's All Over Now, Baby Blue

What current polling predicts is 31 seats changing hands, quite low by usual GE standards. Only 1951, 1955, October 1974 and 2001 saw a lower number of changes. And that low number of changes delivered a new majority only once in 1951. So we would be very far from an earthquake election even though the Conservatives would feel in a festive mood after gaining back a majority. Guess that the SNP and the Liberal Democrats would be more relieved than festive after such results as it could have ended up far worse for both.

There would be nothing too sensational in the list of MPs losing their seats. Though some of the changes might not happen depending on who is actually selected. I can't see Labour reselecting Woodcock or O'Mara so that might be a way to save both seats in spite of the math. Then Labour has de facto made reselection mandatory, and of course some deselected MPs might choose to stand as independents, which would totally reshuffle the deck. And certainly switch the seats because of split votes.

So no real Balls Moments to be expected here. Labour would lose just two members of the Shadow Cabinet: Lesley Laird and Paul Sweeney. And I guess Labour HQ would shrug it off anyway as acceptable collateral damage as both definitely failed to make a lasting impression either on their party or on Scottish public opinion.

Simple Twist of Fate

Then we would have 49 marginal seats overall where the winner's margin is within MOE. With an uncomfortably high proportion in Scotland and relatively few in England. Blame that on the number of safe seats the last GE delivered for both Conservatives and Labour.

Under the proper local circumstances Labour might still find a way to unseat Iain Duncan Smith in London or Stephen Crabb in Wales. But Boris Johnson's seat is definitely out of reach and now even Anna Soubry and Amber Rudd are squarely out of the danger zone. That is until polls take another unexpected turn, which might still happen sooner than later.

Don't Think Twice, It's All Right

Alternate scenarios after reallocating the marginals to the runner-up don't really change the big picture. Worst case scenario for the Conservatives would basically be a repeat 2017 which, except for the DUP thorn in their side, would be almost just as good as a repeat 2015, considering. Guess Theresa May's spad team could spin even the status quo as a victory.

Even the Conservatives' best case scenario would not be a Titanic disaster for Labour as it would not be much worse than a repeat 2015. At least nothing they can't recover from with the right strategies. Which might include taking a real and united stand on major issues and voting accordingly. Including not abstaining. But maybe I'm asking for too much here. By the way stopping obsessing over Scotland and starting concentrating on England might be a good idea too. Juist sayin.

Union Sundown

Much has already been said about Brexit increasing the likelihood of Scottish Independence and Irish Reunification. Time will tell. But already current polling confirms the deep geographical divide between the nations and also a deepening rift within England itself.

Don't be flabbergasted by the massive Tory lead in England. Just remember that in 2017 Tories won England by 4% overall, and by 7% with London taken out. So it's more like history repeating itself with just a swing to the worse for Labour in some English regions. The slightly better LibDem result certainly doesn't help either in competitive seats. UKIP's surge too is not such good news for Labour as we already know they're likely to take as many votes from Labour as from the Conservatives especially in Labour-Leave constituencies.

Current polling confirms widely different patterns from one English region to the other. Voting intentions did not move in the exact same directions since last year but the North-South divide is still here. And possibly stronger with Midlands having moved slightly towards Labour. What the future may bring is hard to tell. Only that England falling apart is not as far fetched a scenario as might have been a few years ago. Minimal devolution within England has already started and you can only expect more demand for it. Until the Union sundown turns into a full Union breakdown.

Just think twenty years ahead. Independent Scotland. Independent Wales. Reunited Ireland. And a Federal England with maximum devolution to all its nine constituent regions. Don't tell me it wouldn't work. That's the way the United States have worked since 1776 and Germany since 1949. Only Little Englander spirits could stop that from happening. And alas probably would.

But one can dream. Or can't he?

Going, Going, Gone

Not so long ago the question was: when will May be gone? Now it seems to have become: will she go at all? It's common knowledge the Mogglodytes already have the 48 signatures needed to trigger a leadership contest. Only they have chosen not to forward them to the 1922 Committee for now. Because you never know how it could end. Again it's all about Tory factions and not the best interests of the UK.

Soubrynistas don't have the numbers to trigger a leadership contest and probably wouldn't if they had them, as the winner would be Johnson or Rees-Mogg and they don't want either as the next PM. Johnsonites and Mogglodytes might feel trigger-happy at times but then the leader of the other faction might win and that's reason enough to take a step back and think it through before blowing the place up.

Then May might get help from where you least expect it (or do you?): Labour. 'Westminster grapevine' has it that some 45 Labour MPs would defy the whip and back the PM on Chequers or whatever other variant of the 'no-deal deal' she tables for a Commons vote some time in November. And on top of that you'd probably have like a dozen Labour abstainers. Which might be just enough to counterbalance the Mogglodytes' and Soubrynistas' defections and grant May the get-out-of-jail-free card she needs.

If May wins the Brexitocalypse 'no-deal deal' vote even by only a handful of votes, she can easily spin it into a major success. No matter where the votes came from and why, that would make her immune to a leadership challenge for at least some months. So don't hold your breath. May might very well be in a position to hold a snap election at a date of her choosing. Or not hold it at all.

But as usual expect the unexpected. And stay tuned for further updates.

Wha daur meddle wi' me

It's Alright Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)
© Bob Dylan, 1964