Jeremy's Den: Westminster projection

Dominance And Submission

As expected the last batch of polls have taken an unexpected turn. Again. After a long period of Tory dominance we had a shortish and smallish Labour surge followed by the return to the ambiguous and awkward situation where the two major English parties are statistically tied. As was often the case in the past, public opinion tends to submit to the MSM's talking points, which are mostly outrageously biased to favour the Conservatives and will have kind words for Labour only if and when it helps scoring cheap points against the SNP. Note all the recent polls were fielded before the Tory confidence vote and it's too early to assess its impact on voting intentions.

Multiple variables will be at play in shaping future voting trends and they will contradict each other. Some will favour the Conservatives as Theresa May is oddly still considered a better choice for PM than Jeremy Corbyn. The 'not changing horses midstream' argument that worked in May's favour in the confidence vote might also work with public opinion even if it will look more and more like a variant of the 'devil you know' argument. Labour might want to play on May's abysmal approval rating (net -22% in most recent poll) but this could backfire as Corbyn's rating is even worse (net -32% in same poll).

The big problem for both parties is that their talking points include more negatives about the other one than positives about themselves. Which also explains why both are down from 2017 while other parties are all up. Not that Greens and UKIP being up means anything as both will fail to stand in most constituencies. Greens because the plan is to boost Labour vote as they did last year and UKIP because they will probably be down to fewer members than seats when the time comes. On the other hand LibDems and SNP gaining votes will definitely have some impact on the final result. In a very close election either of them might be able to deprive the winner of an outright majority and emerge as the kingmakers. Which is not the case, yet.

Hot Rails To Hell

My current super-sample includes the six most recent polls at the time of writing, fielded between 26 November and 7 December. Sample size is 9,275 with a 0.99% MOE. And despite a 1% swing to Tories since my last projection it still fails to deliver anything but a muddy outcome.

The differences between the 2017 vote and current voting intentions again show that neither of the two main parties has ground to celebrate. If anything current polls only add more uncertainty to an already unstable context.

The 'classic' definition of swing would sell this as a 0.7% swing from Conservatives to Labour as it factors in only the gap between the two leading parties. Of course this is far from the truth and the actual situation is more complex. Like a combination of a 2.5% swing from Labour to Greens and a 4% swing from Conservatives to UKIP with smaller swings from both to LibDems on top of that.

And interesting point here is that the combined Conservative and Labour vote under current polling would be 76%, which is a low point compared to the trends seen since 1945. During this period the combined vote for the two main parties reached an all-time high in 1955 on 96% and an all-time low in 2010 on 65%. 76% would be similar to what was witnessed in the late 1980s or early 1990s though the make-up of the 'third parties' vote has changed significantly since.

It is common knowledge that the Westminster System is not friendly to third parties or attempts to think outside the box. Back in the early 20th century it took Labour twenty-two years to emerge as the second party and another seven before they became the first party. And as we know they flubbed it then and did not recover until 1945. Since then the system has been even more unfriendly to alternate parties as even the Liberals' and then Liberal Democrats' surge from the mid-seventies to the early 21st century failed to get them to power, except for the Coalition's five years which ended up sinking them back to fringe status. Interestingly the only successful attempt to think outside the box and challenge the system was the SNP landslide in 2015. The dismal 2017 result does not negate this as discontent in the two main parties' Scottish Branch Offices is bound to boost the SNP's chances next time.

Redeemed

The projected result under current polling would be a major failure for both major parties, with only the LibDems and the SNP having grounds for celebration. Even the small shift towards Tories over the last week would not prevent another setback of the same magnitude as the 2017 one, with 17 seats gone. Again this would end up making the UK likely ungovernable.

For completeness sake I again compared my result to what Electoral Calculus and Election Polling would deliver when fed with the same data. As expected there are only minor differences and nothing that can't be blamed on the subtle nuances between the projection algorithms. All leading to the same conclusion: such a snap GE would only lead to an inextricable mess where forming a strong and stable government would be tantamount to squaring the circle to the power of three.

Unless of course Labour are ready for a high-stakes gamble and outside-of-the-box thinking. And finally strike a deal with the SNP. Which is likely to happen the day after Labour convince Sinn Féin to take their seats to help oust the Tories. Provided Labour haven't struck a deal with the DUP first, which right now seems to be less of a pipe dream than you might think at face value.

Don't Fear The Reaper

On these numbers the body count would be relatively low with only 29 seats projected to change hands. Despite a poor showing overall Labour would still have their one PortiBalls moment unseating Amber Rudd, but otherwise would have to be content with only second-tier trophies (one whip and three PUSSs).

The overall balance of gains and losses would again only emphasize that Labour still have a long way to go before their MPs sit on John Bercow's right-hand side. Losing a handful of seats to the SNP is only to be expected and there's probably nothing they can do to avoid it. But losing some to Conservatives and LibDems too is definitely bad karma and there ain't no ready cure for that.

Wings Wetted Down

On current polling there would be only 50 marginal seats, confirming the next GE would be decided in only a small proportion of really competitive seats. More than two thirds of seats are still projected to be safe for the 2017 winner so there's no way a landslide election is likely to happen next time. Any scenario delivering a change of government would certainly be closer to 1951 than 1945 or 1997.

Right now Labour still have an opening for a symbolic gain in South Swindon, currently held by Solicitor General for England and Wales Robert Buckland. The seat is a bellwether held by Labour in a not too distant past. The way the Attorney General's Office handled the recent Article 50 ruling, and Buckland's own part in the process, should make him a prime target if Labour are 100% serious about getting the Tories out. Juist sayin'.

What Is Quicksand

Alternate scenarios under current polling are definitely bad for Labour as they reflect the slight swing towards Conservatives over the last two weeks. What was then the 'Labour minimum' scenario has become the likely outcome and the then median projection has shifted to 'Labour maximum' scenario. There is now a real possibility Conservatives could save their asses by a hair on a status quo result.

Labour need to do much better than current polling suggests if they want even a remote chance at ousting Conservatives at the next GE. Here is a rough estimate of Labour's number of seats in relation with how they fare on the popular vote:

Current voting patterns (including Labour slumps in London, Scotland and Wales) strongly work against Labour. Even an hypothetical Lab-Lib coalition would require a 5% lead over Conservatives and an outright majority roughly a 6.5% lead, which is only a very remote possibility right now. Labour's only consolation might be that it would be even worse if the proposed boundaries for a 600-seat House were enacted, which is obviously not a top priority for the government right now. But might become one sooner than expected.

Stairway To The Stars

There are many ways Labour could achieve a real success at the next GE but detailed data show that they're not there yet and by a wide margin. The road to Number 10 will certainly be a long and winding one with many failure factors all along.

Right now the breakdown of projected seats by Nation and English regions shows that the North-South divide still exists even with Labour doing marginally better than at the previous GE. Labour not only need to make a clean sweep, or close to, in the three Northern regions, which is far from a done deal. They also need major inroads in the Midlands where their position remains surprisingly weak. The three Southern regions are probably out of reach even if a few Canterburyish upsets can't be ruled out and would indeed be needed for a safe majority.

A lot has to be said too on how voting intentions have evolved since the last GE. UK-wide Labour and Conservatives are now tied. Which is in fact bad news for both as Labour are down 2% from 2017 and Conservatives down 4%. The breakdown by nation is also quite enlightening especially if you focus on who is the first party and by how much they lead.

What current voting intentions say about the first party in each nation and how well they do, or not:

London: Labour by 14%, down from 21% in 2017 and lose two seats

Rest of England: Conservatives by 3%, down from 7% in 2017 and lose seventeen seats

Northern Ireland: DUP by 4%, down from 7% in 2017 and lose one seat

Wales: Labour by 13%, down from 15% in 2017 but narrowly hold all their seats

Scotland: SNP by 11%, up from 8% in 2017 and gain six seats

Yes you read well, only one of the 2017 first parties has improved its position since: the SNP who (if you believe some sources) have been in a downward spiral for years. In their dreams.

The breakdown of current voting intentions by English regions confirms how risky the next GE might be for Labour. The trends here are fairly similar to what we see UK-wide. Labour don't actually do well as they're nearly 2% down from 2017 on average. They would score some marginal gains only because the Conservatives are doing even worse and have their lead seriously cut down. But Labour losing votes even in their Northern heartlands would possibly put even some long-held seats in jeopardy. Remember these are the lads who managed to lose Morley and Outwood at the 2015 GE and then Copeland in a by-election.

Amazingly Labour still haven't realized that the 'for the many not for the few' talking points don't really get through. Quite simply because voters don't have goldfish memories and a long record of Labstaining on Tory austerity just doesn't cut it. Comes as no surprise that talking points that don't work in Shettleston don't work either in Easington or Knowsley. Labour maintaining ambiguity on Brexit and procrastinating on a non-confidence vote certainly don't help either. Up to them to up their game and at last behave like the true opposition.

Then Came The Last Days Of May

The events of the last few days have made all previous scenarios and speculation irrelevant. The only certainty left is that the Conservative Party and the UK find themselves chest-deep in the kind of heavy shit that could have been easily avoided if the last three years had not been all about scoring cheap points in never ending Tory infighting. On top of that the last weeks have proved only Nicola Sturgeon and Caroline Lucas faced the chaos with statesmanlike attitude while Labour were embroiled in their own brand of infighting and unable to get past their contradictions and ambiguity.

On the other hand the result of the Tory confidence vote is far from ambiguous. Remember that more than a third of Tory MPs hold government positions or are on the government payroll in one capacity or another, from the Prime Minister down to PPSs and Assistant Whips. So the 200-117 result actually means Theresa May no longer has the confidence of a majority of her own backbenchers. This will be the key to the May Deal vote which will happen before 21 January no matter what. As Nicola Sturgeon said the 'confidence' vote is 'barely even a Pyrrhic victory' for May as the Brexit Deal vote will certainly be even worse for the Government than previously anticipated.

The 117 who voted against May can be counted on to vote down the May Deal too. The remaining eight Soubrynistas supported May but would vote against the May Deal. Only eleven other MPs remain as possible abstentions. Below is my estimate on the May Deal vote (updated after the confidence vote) compared to Guardian's (last update before the vote). If the 11 potential abstainers make up their minds and vote the end result would be 441-198 against the government. A resounding defeat that would leave very few options open.

In the aftermath of Mayxit English Labour and their Edinburgh Branch Office will have to talk between themselves and decide once and for all whether they 'categorically' oppose another Independence referendum or are ready to 'consider whatever proposals come from Scotland'. Surely the SNP including IndyRef2 in the snap GE manifesto and making it a major campaign issue would help Labour make up their mind. But of course Labour might want to clarify their position about Brexit first in view of the latest developments.

This week's major event is of course the European Court if Justice's ruling on Article 50. This is the one major game-changer that offers the opportunity for a quick and clean way out of the Brexitocalypse bùrach. All it takes is a vote in Commons but it will probably never happen as Labour are trapped by their pledge to respect the referendum result no matter what. Both major parties are likely to disregard the change in public opinion and the dozens of polls predicting that Remain would now prevail. But the ruling has given new momentum to a People's Vote that even senior Tories are now supporting. Theresa May would then be under strong pressure to turn it into a three-way question which would also see Remain win hands down. Time will tell.

Then the Supreme Court issued their ruling on the Scottish Continuity Bill. It has been described as 'ambiguous' and initially I agreed with this. But it is ambiguous only if you don't factor in that the English Government changed the rules while the game was still being played. Otherwise the ruling would have been even more of a blow for them than it already is. There's a case to be made that the Supreme Court issued a political ruling and not a strictly legal one when they made the ex post facto Westminster power-grab legal.

Obviously Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament are thorns in the asses of the English Government and Westminster Establishment, Tories and Labour combined, and hopefully will continue to be so. The Westminster Establishment certainly regret they deprived themselves of their nuclear option when the Scotland Act 2016 was passed. Part 1 Section 1 of the Act clearly says that both ScotParl and ScotGov can be abolished only if the Scottish people decide so in a referendum. Which is as likely to happen as David Cameron coming back to frontline politics.

Till then stay tuned for more updates and hat tricks.

Wha daur meddle wi' me

Jeremy's Den

16/12/2018

Westminster projection - 16.12.2018 update