More Trouble Every Day
General Election polling has steadily sent mixed messages over the last two months. The electorate in disarray does not come as a surprise in these troubled times when the new Frontbenchers' Game, both Tory and Labour, is to contradict each other at every opportunity and Prime Minister's Questions have turned into their own gag reel. There is nothing here that will restore faith in the Westminster System and its skulduggeries. Both major parties continue to lose votes compared to 2017, with their combined votes under 80%.
The most amazing part is that Labour prove unable to bag a sizeable lead and probably won't either in the foreseeable future (more on that below). The English Government are in a dire situation indeed with approval ratings no better than Gordon Brown's in 2008 or Margaret Thatcher's in 1990. But back then the winters of discontent offered the opposition a clear lead in voting intentions, not quite what we have right now. Looks like people just stopped paying attention to the acrobatics of the Westminster powerplay and will switch back on only three months from now. Picture it as Brexit-As-Root-Canal. People know it's gonna be messy and painful so let's just get it done and move on. And in the meantime pretend we still want Tories in charge to sort out the bùrach.
Of course there is no way of telling which way public opinion will go once they start paying attention again. Only sure thing is that there is not much of an appetite for a Labour majority these days and even less for PM Corbyn. Guess we will now have to wait until next year for more polling and see if we finally get past the stalemate. Because Saturnalia Season is not this time of the year when respectable pollsters overload the plebs with redundant voting intentions data. Rather it's that time of the year when England drinks and goes home for the yearly ritual of watching the latest instalment of the Lizzie Windsor Yuletide Show.
Because of course nothing lifts you up like watching a century-old billionaire benefit scrounger deliver platitudes about peace, love, understanding and togetherness while seated in front of a golden piano that even Elton John would find too camp-cheap to actually play on. At least Elizabeth seems to enjoy her £6 million pay raise, one that would cover the yearly wages of 164 Experienced Senior Paramedics on current NHS rates. By the way the cost of the taxpayer-funded refurbishment of Buckingham is higher than the GDP of Micronesia. Jist sayin for the benefit of the last few remaining Windsor worshippers.
The Torture Never Stops
Back in the real world of working and voting oiks, the current polling average looks pretty similar to what we had two weeks ago. Today's super-sample includes six polls fielded between 4 December and 20 December before pollsters too went into Christmas Recess. Sample size is 13,824 with a 0.81% MOE and it still delivers Tories and Labour basically nose to nose.
Note that the 'poll of polls' includes the YouGov Mega Poll for People's Vote fielded 14-15 December with a 5k sample size. YouGov polls are always slightly more Tory-friendly than others so this one probably skews the average towards Tories by about 1% but this does not make a big difference in the projected seat distribution as we remain anyway in the Twilight Zone where no party is strong enough for an outright majority.
The projected changes in vote shares from 2017 stick to the well-known pattern of both major parties losing votes in various directions, while only LibDems and SNP are in a situation where gaining votes actually translates into gaining seats.
Pick Me, I'm Clean
As you might expect indecisive polling would once again deliver a messy result. Even John McDonnell's Magic Plan of a Labour-DUP deal would fall far short of delivering a majority. Downside (or upside?) of such results would be that both Theresa May (or somebody else, see below) and Jeremy Corbyn would have to go as I can't imagine their respective parties still willing to have them as leaders after such debacles. Then new leadership (Rudd and Umunna anyone?) could go for some freakish out-of-the-box thinking like a German-like Grand Coalition. After all One-Nationers and post-Blairites already agree on the basics: fuck the 99% for the benefit of the 1% and privatize NHS while you're at it. Then there's just the small matter of Rudd actually holding her seat, which is not the likeliest of outcomes right now (see below too).
Basic maths say other combinations are indeed possible even if politically unlikely. Con-DUP would still get 308 seats so the next Tory leader might be willing to gamble a minority coalition knowing that Labour in shambles would make their life easier. On the other hand Lab-Lib-SNP would have a majority on 328 seats. PM McDonnell would rule this option out but possibly PM Starmer might be open to the suggestion. Odds are though that nothing would work but for a short time and the only way out of the bùrach-on-top-of-bùrach would be yet another snap GE, making 2019 the third Year-Of-Two-Elections in history.
Little House I Used To Live In
On this polling only 31 seats would change hands, again not a satisfactory situation for Labour and Conservatives as both would gain some and lose some. Again too only LibDems and SNP could call this a success though neither would bag anything like truly earth-shattering gains. If LibDems managed to get over 30 seats and SNP over 50 that would tell a different story but we're not there yet as the balance of gains and losses shows.
Remember that last year 60 of the 318 Tory seats were won by less than 10%. The exact number of seats Labour need to gain for a majority. But that would require a 5% swing from Conservatives to Labour and Labour not losing any of their current seats, quite unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. And now we have today's projected losers:
Labour's only real satisfaction would be unseating Amber Rudd, which would shatter once and for all any dream she might have of ever becoming Prime Minister. But the margin would only be 2% so Rudd might miraculously hold the seat by the skin of her teeth whatever the national context. I also suspect some in Labour would secretly rejoice at the prospect of mavericks O'Mara and Dent Coad losing their seats. Just as some others might find it a better strategy to let Soubry hold her seat just for the fun of seeing her again voicing what should be Labour talking points from the Tory backbenches.
Any Way The Wind Blows
Right now 51 seats would be decided within MOE, which varies from area to area as numbers of available polls and sample sizes differ. 22 projected Conservative seats, 19 projected Labour seats and 5 projected SNP seats qualify but usual small swings in voting intentions would substantially change the list.
This does not mean that only 51 seats are potentially competitive. Many more are as the standard definition of 'Marginal' is broader than simply 'within MOE'. And even 'Lean' seats can become competitive if local factors work strongly against the sitting MP. The 2017 results in Scotland are a textbook case with a 13.4% swing from the SNP to the Conservatives, unseating some SNP MPs who had gained or held their seats by double digits in 2015. SLLM breakdown is as follows (2017 result compared to current 2022 projection):
The number of potentially competitive seats (Marginal + Lean) is stable at about 150. Closer polling results also mean the number of safe seats goes down but Labour can still count on about 200 such seats and Conservatives on about 180 (down from about 220 and about 245 respectively in 2017). This of course does not mean any safe seats have become competitive as those 'demoted' switched to 'Likely' which still means a strong double digit margin and majorities mostly over 10k. Bear in mind massive swings like Scotland 2015 are 'once in a generation' events. Or not….
Would You Go All The Way?
Possible alternate outcomes are not really better than the basic projection as we would still be in the now familiar territory where the choice is between no majority and a weak majority. Hardly anything has changed over the last two weeks and getting a workable coalition is still a case of squaring the circle.
Of course a continuation of the Con-DUP deal is still a possibility and would have a 3-seat majority if Tories do really well and Labour really bad. But it depends on how many Tory Grandees would still be willing to put up with Arlene Foster's whims for any length of time. My best guess is that few would even if that meant risking a minority government.
At the other end of the seat range Labour could boast being the first party, even by just one seat, and try passing a Queen's Speech of their own. Which would probably fail as LibDems, Plaid Cymru and Greens would demand a firm commitment to a People's Vote or even a full repeat EU referendum and Labour are definitely not going down that road (more below). Ironically even the elephant-in-the-roomish Labour-SNP deal would fall one seat short of a majority and would not even be a fantasy option. So get ready for the Second Snap Election Of 2019 in a matter of months.
Broken Hearts Are For Assholes
The Frank Zappa songbook offers several valuable options for the title of this section. 'Treacherous Cretins' and 'Dumb All Over' would have nailed it nice and neat too. Because, you guessed it, this is about Jeremy Corbyn going full-Brexit and John McDonnell advocating a deal with DUP rather than with Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the SNP. This has already triggered a huge backlash from Labour supporters and the electoral fallout will certainly leave them heartbroken when the body count rises by the score. Then they have only their own party to blame for choosing the surest path to a GE defeat. The proverbial 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory' doesn't even cover the sheer idiocy of it all. Who are the 'stupid people' now?
Two YouGov polls this month tested the 'Labour Goes Brexit' scenario. First the aforementioned poll for People's Vote, fielded 12-14 December. Then another one for Hope Not Hate, fielded 14-15 December. Both start with the usual voting intentions question with the results slightly more Tory-leaning than average, as is usual with YouGov. Then come the 'Brexit Options' asking respondents (roughly) how they would vote with only Conservatives backing Brexit and all others backing a People's Vote, or alternatively if both Conservatives and Labour backed Brexit and the others did not. The 'Con-only Brexit' option is kind of a mixed bag but the 'Con and Lab Brexit' option definitely sends Labour down Motorway To Hell.
Corbyn's Praetorian Guard will now argue he did the right thing because 64% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. Which is disingenuous and a blatant distorsion of what actually happened. Sorry for the reality check, comrades, but constituencies don't vote, people do. Back then 63% of all constituencies 'voted Leave' but only 52% of people did. And only some 35% of your own chose Leave. Which is probably why the extreme scenarios in both polls show Labour losing about a third of their 2017 seats. But 'thanks' to the odd workings of First Past The Post this would not translate into a LibDems tsunami as they would only get at best third party status, almost tied with the SNP.
The LibDems' problem is obviously that the 2015 and 2017 GEs reduced them to nearly fringe status and there's nothing even a massive swing towards them can cure overnight. Even in Scotland where these polls predict them up to 19% of the popular vote this would gain them only one seat (North East Fife) from the SNP. The irony is that the increased LibDem vote would actually benefit the Conservatives in England by taking away a fair amount of Remain voters from Labour. A similar pattern would emerge in Scotland with opposite effect as LibDems would be more 'successful' in the North East where they once did rather well. But here this would favour the SNP in competitive seats by scraping just enough votes off the Conservative share to make them lose up to 10 of their 2017 seats.
To be honest there is something odd in Labour taking such a drubbing as current EU referendum polling is not that straightforward. Admittedly recent polls show that Remain would win by 4 to 6% but so did polls fielded in the fortnight before the 2016 vote, so there is every reason to be sceptical about it. Moreover recent polling also shows public opinion have more or less resigned themselves to seeing Brexit happen in whatever form be it bad, badder or baddest. Only about 30% actually want a second EU referendum and 10% want to see the matter resolved by a snap GE. 15-20% would support a renegotiation if the May Deal fails as expected, 20-25% would go for hard Brexit and only about 10% would support revoking Article 50.
The only reason why public opinion would want to inflict such harsh punishment on Labour is a sense of betrayal. You probably don't remember but I just checked and back in 2016 only 11 Labour MPs supported Leave while 221 supported Remain. Even Jeremy Corbyn publicly supported Remain whatever his Inner Socialist might have whispered in his ear. Tories can get away with lies and deceit and betrayal because they can't help it, it's the very nature of the Nasty Party and people don't expect anything else from them. But I have a hunch public opinion actually held Corbyn's Labour to higher standards. Then Labour failed them and now have forfeited any claim they might have had of being a true alternative, so the potential punishment matches the perceived betrayal.
We've Got To Get Into Something Real
All things considered, psephology is to an actual election pretty much what wanking is to intercourse. A nice enough substitute for a while but nothing beats the real thing. And we might be closer than we think to the real thing, that is the (First?) Snap Election Of 2019. What happens in Commons on 14 January will set the tone and probably decide the fate of some major players. Theresa May has bought herself a 12-month stay of execution by friendly fire if the rumour is true that her entourage actually encouraged some cautious rebel MPs to send their no confidence letters, knowing that the huge number of MPs on government payroll would save her even if a majority of backbenchers voted against her.
But 14 January is still likely to be May's Day Of Reckoning as the odds of her not-that-much-of-a-deal passing are just as slim as they were before the Christmas Recess. Guardian have stopped updating their headcount and are still predicting the deal going down 425-214. My opinion is that it will be even worse even allowing for a substantial number of Tory abstentions. I think Tory MPs have precious fuck all in the way of incentives to change their vote and if they had a shift from opposing to abstaining is much more likely that from opposing to supporting, and even then only very few would.
Theresa May could probably try strongarming, bribing or blackmailing some MPs into changing their vote but the latter would require some News-Of-The-World-grade material. Strongarming might backfire as everybody remembers that even Arlene Foster is better at it than Treeza. Bribes are no longer what they once were now that we know even Twiggy and Harry Kane are eligible to a New Year's Trinket, so John Redwood might feel entitled to something more substantial. And old-fashioned blackmail might fail now that David Mundell has liked a tweet about sucking dick for Christmas, so the bar is high and any blackmailable material would have to be truly radioactive and then some.
As I see it Theresa May's future is far from bright despite the 'almost confidence' vote. We already know that 'Britannia ruled the waves but Tories waive the rules'. The 1922 Committee can and certainly will move the goalposts and oust May no matter what if the Best-Of-The-Only-Deal vote proves to be too much of a trainwreck. Best educated guess is that they are already working on it and will trigger Mayxit some time in late January. Then it will be the Night of the Long Knives for the sharks already circling the Mayboat. And the very thought of Sleekit Gove possibly being the dark horse winning the race by a nostril makes you think that you can 'bury the rag most deep in your face for now is the time for your tears'.
This concludes my last entry for 2018. As the cliché goes 'hope for the best but be ready for the worse' next year. But don't fool yourself, there is no reason to believe 2019 will be any better than 2018 whoever the tenant of Number Ten is. Quite the opposite in fact as it's a safe bet that Brexitocalypse will bring out the worst out of Little England. And always bear in mind that, whatever the outcome of the Snap Election(s) Of 2019, we already know what it means for Scotland.
Indulge in some French champagne on New Year's Day because next year all we might have left is Sussex Champagne and stay tuned for more ramblings.
With love to all IndyDugs and their Moms and Dads.
Wha daur meddle wi' me
© Frank Zappa, 1976
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