Battle For Britain
General Election polls never cease to amaze me. Or, more exactly, the mood swings of the English electorate do. They make up 84% of the overall electorate so they hold the key to any GE and should take 84% of the blame if the end result is unmitigated disaster. After a long period of Tory lead which would have given them an outright majority, we're now back to alternating Labour and Tory leads. We have been down that road before and already know it's a dead end street leading to a deadlock.
Trends definitely show Labour closing in on Tories but at slower pace than the last time it happened. Recent YouGov polls, as usual rather Tory-friendly, might explain this in part. But there also some mixed messages in there. Like some LibDem voters switching back to Tories to keep Corbyn out while some others switch to Labour perhaps mistakenly believing that somehow Labour could mitigate the fallout of Brexitocalypse, which they obviously can't.
UKIP are still trending around 5% which will gain them nothing except the dubious pleasure of jeopardizing Tories' chances in a few marginal seats. Finally the SNP are still doing well which strengthens their position both as Scotland's dominant party and as the ones with a mandate for Independence.
Where Are We Now?
My current super-sample includes the last six polls, fielded between 2 November and 27 November. Super-sample size is 9,784 with a 0.96% MOE and it delivers an almost perfect tie between Labour and the Conservatives. Which is where problems begin.
Because of course nothing says 'Trouble Ahead' better than the two main parties both losing votes from the last GE and the number of potentially wasted votes increasing.
The Next Day
As expected crappy voting intentions deliver a crappy seat projection. Full speed ahead into a deadlock with Conservatives bagging 45% of the seats and Labour 43%. As usual different voting patterns translate into a bonus for Conservatives on similar vote shares. But more to the point neither of the two main parties is in a position to form a strong and stable government no matter what combination you try.
The aftermath of such and outcome would be interesting to watch as it is one of these rare situations where both major parties actually lose the election. Guess that both Jeremy Corbyn and the then Tory leader, whoever that might be, would be handed their P45s in no time for failing to deliver. Which of course would do nothing to solve the problem. But there's nothing here that another snap election couldn't cure. Or not. Depending on which way it goes: 1910ish into another dead end that would require extreme solutions (like that deal John McDonnell pledges will never happen) or 1974ish into the narrowest of majorities.
Ashes To Ashes
On this projection the body count would be 37. Labour would get their PortiBalls Moment unseating Amber Rudd. Which is why her chances in a leadership election are close to absolute zero. Tories just wouldn't choose a leader who held her seat by just 346 votes and is at the top of Labour's hit list. Or would they? Second-tier trophies would two Ministers of State (Eustice and Lancaster). Third tier would be three whips (Whittaker, Pursglove, Stephenson) and four PUSS (Smith, Andrew, Doyle-Price, Harrington). And yes you might want to look up the last one before getting any naughty ideas about what it really is.
But the overall balance of gains and losses is far from stellar for Labour. A net gain of just 16 seats is far from the 60 they need for a majority. I fully expect them to blame it on Scotland and I will just stress that current polling has them 49 seats behind Tories in England outside London. A 50-50 split of seats down there would do the trick and it requires 'only' a 3-4% additional swing to Labour. They've done better than this in 2017 so what can possibly be the problem?
Incidentally doing better in London than current polling predicts (down 6% and two seats) would also help Labour, at least symbolically, even if it would possibly switch only a handful of seats. Losing their two unexpected and highly symbolic 2017 gains (Battersea and Kensington) would be a blow to Corbyn in his own backyard. Guess London Labour would put up a serious fight to at least hold these two even if they fail to make further inroads into Tory territory there.
Quicksand
Current polling would deliver 43 marginal seats within MOE, down from 66 in 2017. With only 22 of them in England outside London. Voting patterns Doon Sooth would make a large number of seats more competitive but 313 of the 460 Little England seats (68%) remain safe including 147 current Labour seats and 162 current Conservative seats. Which makes a 1997ish landslide unlikely for the time being unless the cumulative effect of Mayxit, a leadership free-for-all and Brexit triggers some sort of collective Tory meltdown even in their heartlands.
Even without a full Tory meltdown Labour still have two high profile targets worth putting up a fight to turn them into first-tier trophies. Solicitor General for England and Wales Robert Buckland in South Swindon, a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 and considered a bellwether. Minister of State for Employment Alok Sharma, Amber Rudd's right-hand man at DWP, in charge of Universal Credit and sanctions, which should make him a first priority target. Just like South Swindon, his Reading West seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010 and is also considered a bellwether.
Wild Is The Wind
Even after reallocating marginals to the runner-ups, this batch of polls would deliver a quite chaotic situation. At one end of the spectrum Conservatives would be 20 seats short of a majority. I think a resurrection of the Con-DUP deal is highly unlikely as the whole Brexit bùrach has left many open wounds, especially the backstop fiasco. Unless of course DUP can be appeased by another bribe, say £2bn this time. At the other end, even the unlikely Lab-Lib coalition would be 12 seats short of a majority and could probably deliver no better than a short term caretaker government until the second 2019 snap GE. Unless of course Corbyn chooses to boldly go where no Labour PM has gone before….
…. and at last have some adult conversation with the SNP. Right now Labour seem confused about this. Emily Thornberry is ready for a deal to pass an alternate Brexit plan. John McDonnell rules it our for fear it would imply granting a Section 30 order. But his point might be moot anyway as a strong legal case can be made that the Claim of Right, as agreed by Commons last July, gives Scottish Government full authority to call a referendum without a Section 30 order. Would be interesting to try it and see what the Supreme Court has to say.
As an aside I compared my projection with the results you get when using the two projection models currently available online (Electoral Calculus and Election Polling) as I did earlier with the Scottish Parliament projections. As expected the differences between the three models are minimal. Nothing here that can't be explained by the slight differences between the algorithms when moving from pure UNS (Election Polling) to slightly tweaked UNS (Electoral Calculus) to UNS-PNS mix (my model).
A difference of 5-6 seats does not change the conclusions with the current batch of polls. It would become relevant if we had something like 'Labour projected 4 seats shy of majority'. But of course such a result would revive the old debate about Scotland holding the key to Number 10, which is a wholly different story.
Sense Of Doubt
Early last month Survation released a Jumbo Poll (20k sample) soon followed by its breakdown by nation and region. Polls with such a huge sample don't happen often and regular polls usually have 1k-2k samples. Such a huge poll would definitely act as a black hole warping the time-space continuum if it was included in a 'poll of polls'. Whatever other polls fielded over the same period say the Jumbo Poll would dominate and swing the weighted averages to values almost identical to its own results.
When the Survation Jumbo was released I had more than reasonable doubt as it showed Labour leading by 1% while earlier polls had the Conservatives leading for over a month. Which begged the obvious question: what if the Jumbo Poll is the outlier and will totally distort any results and conclusions? Which is the reason why I postponed any update of my projections until I had at least another six polls fielded later that would help assessing the actual trends.
As it turned out the Survation Jumbo was not an outlier but an advance warning of a shift that was broadly confirmed by later polls. Here is the seat projection it would have delivered combined with its regional sub-polls (samples are big enough to not call them just 'subsamples').
This projection is quite close to the one based on my current super-sample. Only noticeable difference is in Northern Ireland where Survation sees SDLP and UUP coming back with two seats each. Which might or might not happen. There haven't been any full scale polls of Northern Ireland since the last GE and the Survation sample is only 555 and down to 394 when undecideds and refusers are removed, not enough to draw conclusions. So for the moment I will discount it and wait until further NI polling reliably shows massive changes from 2017.
So now we are back to the 'business as usual' reasonable doubt about the reliability of all polls. Which I can address only with the alternate scenarios moving the swingometer to the outer limits of MOE. Might be enough or might not, only actual election results will tell.
Something In The Air
From my days in France I remember an expression that always made my day: la niche est tombée sur le chien. Of course a lot is lost in translation as 'the kennel fell on the dog' is certainly less dramatic than 'the walls came tumbling down'. Then this week in Theresa May's life really made me think the kennel had fallen on her and this might very well be just the Prelude To Mayxit.
Next week will undoubtedly be even worse as the English Government is headed to a massive defeat in Commons. Last Government talking point is that 'under the Brexit deal we have agreed to strike an ambitious new flexible and scalable relationship that allows us to combine resources worldwide for maximum impact' (Steve Barclays's own words). Which doesn't mean fuck all in plain English and certainly won't help clarify what's really in the 585-page agreement.
May winning the vote on 11 December would be a major upset. But odds are heavily against her. Below is my take on what the vote might deliver, and how Guardian sees it as of 3/12, might still change before the vote. I have reallocated all 'independents' (withdrawn the whip mostly) to their original parties and left some room for abstentions as some MPs might actually have last minute second thoughts. But the verdict is clear: FAIL.
Unfortunately what the oppositions have to offer just doesn't cut it. In their own words Labour "respect the referendum result but don't respect the Tories' botched Brexit negotiations". Their alternative is a 'comprehensive and permanent Customs Union' coupled with a 'strong Single Market relationship'. That would be some sort of 'Norway Option' while the SNP's proposal as described some days ago by Ian Blackford would be 'Norway Plus'. Problem is that both are but a pipe dream as EU has made it abundantly clear there will be no further negotiation and it's now decision time. Donald Tusk put it bluntly: if the May Deal is voted down then it's either No Deal or No Brexit. Though the latter sounds to me like way outside the bounds of plausibility as it would require revoking Article 50 and nobody has the weest clue how to get it done clean and quick.
I have a hunch the Tory vote of no confidence in May will then become irrelevant as she will resign (even if Guardian says otherwise) rather than face another predictable and humiliating defeat. Her successor, whoever it might be (and my guts say it won't be Johnson) will then have little choice but to at last call the Long Awaited Snap GE, which technically can still happen before Brexit Day. Some Tories have already expressed concern that it might be a 1997ish debacle, but I'm sure some others secretly with they lose it so that Labour will have to clean up their mess. Time will tell.
If the snap GE happens, looks to me like the SNP's manifesto is already written for them: seek a mandate for Independence while hammering home what a disaster the Labour-assisted Tory Brexitocalypse is for Scotland. And stay on course. Don't let Labour drag you into a debate on how ScotGov could mitigate the impact of Tory policies Labour helped pass. Don't let Tories get away with their betrayal of Scotland and how they lied even to their core electorate. Get the message home at all hustings, especially in areas likely to suffer most from Brexit and where seats lost in 2017 can be taken back this time. Think Moray, Gordon, Banff and Buchan, Dumfries and Galloway, Aberdeen South and be bold. Juist sayin….
And as usual stay tuned for further upsets and updates.
Saor Alba Gu Bràth
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