Any appetite for a second EU referendum?

Earlier this week Iain Macwhirter published a piece in the Herald which starts with some not-so-convincing ramblings about a second Independence referendum. In the final section a somewhat clumsily worded sentence sounds like he's appealing to the SNP to come out in support of People's Vote, though he doesn't exactly say it explicitely in so many words. Part of his demonstration is self-contradictory but never mind. 

Besides there seems to be some confusion in his mind between People's Vote (which would be a referendum on the final Brexit deal only) and the so-called 'BrexitRef2' or 'think twice referendum' (which would be a rematch of the 2016 EU referendum in the same spirit as IndyRef2). Let's assume for now it's the first option, as I think there are some good reasons why the SNP, as an organisation, should never touch People's Vote with a sixty-foot barge pole, even if some members including MPs seem inclined to support it.

First Mcwhirter advising you to do it is reason enough to not do it. More seriously an obvious reason is that BrexitRef2 will never happen. Conservative and Labour united frontbenches will make sure of that. No matter how many signatures People's Vote get on their petition the only outcome will be Parliament voting on the final deal under the somewhat fuzzy provisions of 'meaningful vote'. So the SNP throwing its full weight behind People's Vote would just waste energy, resources and political capital to achieve fuck all.

Second reason is that right now People's Vote looks like an haphazard combination of some Liberal Democrats, a few Conservative strays and a handful of Labour backbenchers whose motivation might just be to piss off Corbyn (aye that's ye Chuka and Ian). No political parties officially support them, not even the LibDems or the Greens so it looks somewhat like some scaled-down Better Together. Brexiteers probably think of them as only a minor nuisance or else the Tory-owned MSM would already have blown them out of the water.

The third and probably most important reason for the SNP to stay out of it is that standing up for BrexitRef2 in whatever incarnation would be an unnecessary distraction from the real goal: holding IndyRef2 within a year and winning it. Independence is the first and foremost priority, I will even say the only priority. All other issues can be discussed and sorted out afterwards.

Let's assume now that Macwhirter is actually talking about a full Monty rematch of the 2016 EU referendum. For once I think the SNP should be extremely cautious before taking a stand on that. Because this option would be extremely hazardous, even more than the first one. To support this just factor in the demographics of the IndyRef and EURef votes. I don't have any crosstabs based on the actual votes but pollsters do crosstab current Indy voting intentions with 2014 and 2016 votes. Simply because 'recall questions' are an easy way to check the reliability of the current sample. Here is what we get from this year's IndyRef2 polls:

The reconstructed results of IndyRef and EURef based on the 'recall questions' from these polls fit with the actual results, meaning both are within MOE. Of course the most important part is that 30% of Yes voters also voted Leave. Which means that the SNP throwing massive support behind BrexitRef2 would be a huge strategic blunder with IndyRef2 within months of happening. I think even Nicola Sturgeon's pro-EU spads (those reportedly urging her to come out in favour of BrexitRef2 at the October Conference) can understand it would be adventurous at best, suicidal at worst to alienate even part of the Yes-Leave voters when Independence could be at stake in the foreseeable future.

At this point I would like to remind you of what I tweeted back then, some days before the EU referendum. Those who already followed me in 2016 might remember it. I don't remember the exact wording but the idea was 'vote Remain because it's the right thing to do NOW then get Indy and ask again'. Simply because Independence will open a lot of previously unexplored options. EU with or without Eurozone being just one choice and possibly not be the best one.

Fun (or sadly sloppy) part in Mcwhirter's article is when he urges Nicola Sturgeon to support BrexitRef2 because it would be 'seizing the political initiative and giving her party something concrete to do'. Which, apart from the patronizing tone, is utter cooshite. Not least because McWhirter starts his piece arguing that Sturgeon would shatter party unity if she doesn't launch the IndyRef2 campaign at the October Conference and goes on advising her to do the exact opposite. 

Obviously there is no better way to strengthen party unity, seize the initiative and give the party something concrete to do than starting the Move To IndyRef2 at the October Conference. I hope the prepared statement will not refer to 'lack of clarity on Brexit' as an excuse to procrastinate on Independence (again). The grassroots would hate it. But I trust we can rely on Keith Brown to inject some welcome boldness into the whole thing (and there is absolutely not the weest smitch of irony in this sentence).

Besides Dominic Raab and Michel Barnier can be of some help here. In his latest press statement Barnier mentioned that 'we both (EU and UK) want to conclude in October with a deal'. We can just hope that means early October as Raab will probably want the deal sealed before Commons return. So there is a reasonable chance the gory details will be revealed in time for the SNP Conference which happens to be the very last of this year's season. Then all excuses to hide behind Brexit would vanish and SNP leadership could only blame themselves for 'lack of clarity on Independence', if any.

As a conclusion I will borrow some lines from the great Paul Kavanagh. He nails it and says it all better than I could (full brilliant piece here). "The SNP needs to harness the energy and enthusiasm that is growing in the grassroots Indy movement. They need to get the Indy vote out, and that means giving it a reason, giving it a vision, giving it hope".

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Nemo me impune lacessit

© Lord Louis Freedman @shedboy23