The big picture
Only three more polls since my last projection and all have Labour and the Conservatives nose to nose on 38%. These results are quite disappointing for Labour after the surge we saw in the aftermath of the Tory Brexit debacle but I think there is a pattern here. As soon as Labour do better in opinion polls Tory cronies in the MSM come back with some 'new' stories about Labour's alleged antisemitism and infighting, plus some personal attacks aimed at Jeremy Corbyn.
In a ironic twist of fate Tories use the same tactics against Corbyn as Scottish Labour against the SNP: smear, lie, slander, repeat. Some may think there's a kind of immanent justice at work here but I don't. Actually I feel sorry for Jeremy Corbyn. The man has a lot of political faults from blind support of Unionism to ambiguity on Brexit. But I do believe he is a decent man deep down and certainly does not deserve the thrashing he gets from MSM and sometimes from within his own party.
Just between you and me if I was English (and blissfully clueless about Scottish matters as most of them are) I would most certainly have joined Labour and Momentum. And also been part of the recent #WeAreCorbyn twitterstorm. But now let's forget this (and I will deny having ever said it anyway 😁) and go back to the matter at hand: what do polls say? Super-sample size is 9,726 with 0.96% MOE.
Labour's projected lead is down to just over 1% from 3% ten days ago. But Conservatives still appear to lose votes on both sides to UKIP and LibDems. The SNP is still doing well as full Scottish polls already told us, as are the LibDems thanks to some Tory Remainers switching sides.
Faced with such numbers you have to try and find why Labour fails to get any momentum (wretched pun fully intended). So I dug out the voting intentions / social grade crosstabs from 20+ polls going back to June. Average voting intentions are of course different than the current super-sample as I covered a longer period. The results are enlightening.
Of course as a socialist I beg to differ. I do believe classes (not the neutered statistical concept of 'social grades') still exist and probably today more than ever over the last 30 years. If you don't believe classes exist just listen to Jacob Rees-Mogg for a reminder that they actually do. And there is definitely a class war going on. The working class may not always be totally aware of it but the ruling class are. Because they started it. And are winning it. So far.
The real thing, not Billy Bragg's 'revision'
And where does this take us?
The projected result would be one of most awkward and potentially unmanageable in UK electoral history. Both major parties some 40 seats short of a majority and no credible government coalition in sight either. Even with Labour slightly ahead on the popular vote the Conservatives would bag the most seats by a nose. Thanks in part to both differential turnout and the high number of Labour sinkholes which automatically generate a higher number of wasted votes.
Only the two 1910 elections show a similar pattern with both main parties on 40-41% of the seats, while 1929 and February 1974 come close with the first party winning only 46% of the seats. It's also worth remembering that in 1910 H.H. Asquith sought an received support from the Irish Parliamentary Party which in today's context would be quite similar to Labour seeking SNP support. Juist sayin.
On these numbers only 38 seats would change hands including 18 from Conservatives to Labour. While Labour need 60+ to be on the safe side.
The smaller number of changes also greatly reduces the number of potential Balls moments. And I also have a hunch that Labour might find it convenient to spare a couple of the names on that list because they would be more useful as rebel Tory backbenchers. As to which ones, your guess is as good as mine.
The alternate scenarios
As usual about 20 seats would move one way or the other as we go from one scenario to the next. But on current polling even the 'Labour maximum' scenario is not that good for them. Being 25 seats ahead of the second party and still 25 seats short of a majority is not what anyone would call a 'best case scenario'. Yet it is the best Labour can hope for under current polling.
The summary of all possible coalitions or combinations shows it. It would be fairly easy to keep the Tories out but far more difficult to get Labour in.
Even on their best projected result Labour would have to risk a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Which would be hard to swallow for many on both sides and is probably not the likeliest outcome. But you never know. To make it safer some form of confidence and supply deal with the Greens and Plaid Cymru would be a bonus but is also quite unlikely to happen. And I won't even mention the SNP deal. All considered if current polling became reality that would be the recipe for yet another snap election within months if not weeks.
What would happen if there was no Scotland?
For some time many have wondered aloud what would happen to the House of Commons if Scotland was already an independent nation by the time of the next GE. To answer this we first need a 'point zero' which would be the 2017 election. Here is the breakdown of seats by nation with and without Scotland. Remember that without Scotland Commons have only 591 seats. So 293 seats is the de facto majority as long as Sinn Féin won't take their seats.
At face value this looks good for the Conservatives who would have achieved a 12-seat majority and could have done away with the DUP deal. But don't jump to the conclusion that Scotland not being there would always benefit the Tories.
Let's see now what we get on the projected results of the next GE. I picked up my 'Labour maximum' scenario as it is the one that best supports my point. Here is what we have on current polling. First with Scotland in and then with Scotland out.
The projection has Labour on 298 seats, far from a majority and bound to deliver at best a weak minority government. But with Scotland out Labour gets a two-seat majority. Just because right now Labour are doing very poorly in Scotland and so would lose only a few seats.
The final word is that the party who wins the election will benefit from Scotland being out only if they also do poorly in Scotland. Otherwise a Scotland-less Commons will help the opposition. See the sequence from 1997 to a projected 2022 to see how it works.
Labour win three elections while doing extremely well in Scotland, so losing the Scottish seats lowers their simulated share of seats. It works exactly the other way round with the Conservatives winning the other three elections while doing badly in Scotland. They get a higher share of seats but the impact is less visible in 2017 when they did better than usual in Scotland.
Of course Labour were the dominant party in Scotland for the best part of the last 60 years so it was easy to conclude that a Scotland-less Commons would always benefit the Tories. But this was just a confusion between the result and the way by which it is achieved. Now that Labour have become something of a fringe party in Scotland, Scottish independence is bound to benefit them in any future GE. Could even help them get a majority in a close election that would deliver only a plurality in the current Commons.
One more Scottish paradox.
And then what next?
There will probably be fewer polls in August except the usual weekly YouGov for The Times. Next batch of polls will show the impact of Boris Johnson's islamophobia scandal. Possibly Bojo has now lost the Conservative leadership contest before it even began. So public opinion will have to get used to the idea that Jacob Rees-Mogg will be the next PM once the 1922 Committee is done with Theresa May.
When and how it will happen is widely open to conjecture as this is part of an uncertain future. A no-confidence vote between the Summer Recess and the Conference Recess would not necessarily be the most convenient option for JRM, especially as Commons will sit for only eight days and whatever could be done would have to be rushed. A leadership contest during the recess is another option, with the Conference having the final say.
Stay tuned for further developments.
Wha daur meddle wi' me
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