Wot's…. uh the deal?
Recent polling is quite surprising with all the twists and turns. Here is the sequence since late June (only three main parties included on purpose) and trendlines since last GE.
It's not just a case of Labour being shot down by MSM's smear-lie-slander-repeat tactics. After all the SNP are the target of even worse abuse and they still get 40% of Scottish voting intentions and a solid majority of Scottish seats. Labour should sit back and take a deep breath and then admit that a lot of the damage was self-inflicted: ambiguity on Brexit, willing abettors or abstainers on Tory austerity plans, rumours of a possible SDP-like scenario in the near future,....
Then you have the 'Corbyn Factor'. At some point politics always get personal and Corbyn steadily loses the 'Preferred Prime Minister' competition. Of course polls mostly say that the people's choice would be 'None of the above'. But once you factor that out May wins hands down like 6-to-4. Corbyn is not only unpopular he's also considered unfit for the position. And that's a hard one to overcome especially when a lot of the seeds of doubt have been planted by your own camp.
An interesting feature of the latest batch of polls is that they predict anything from a 3% Labour lead to a 3% Conservative lead. A 6% spread in polls fielded in quick succession is beyond MOE. But it doesn't means the polls are unreliable. Only that we should be really careful in interpreting them.
Let there be more light
Let's see now what the most recent polls tell us. Today's super-sample is based on six polls fielded between 9 August and 21 August. Super-sample size is 10,404 with a 0.93% MOE.
Labour and Conservatives are statistically tied, which means Labour would fail to gain a truly significant number of marginals and Conservatives would still come out as the first party thanks to voting patterns on current boundaries.
I also had a quick look at the Scottish subsamples. I don't use them in my Scottish projections but it's still worth checking them once in a while to know whether or not they follow the trend of full Scottish polls. In this case they do with the SNP on 37-42%. With all the usual caveats about the large MOE this would deliver, give or take a few, SNP 41-48, Conservatives 8-12, LibDems 2-4, Labour 1-3.
I also had a quick look at the Scottish subsamples. I don't use them in my Scottish projections but it's still worth checking them once in a while to know whether or not they follow the trend of full Scottish polls. In this case they do with the SNP on 37-42%. With all the usual caveats about the large MOE this would deliver, give or take a few, SNP 41-48, Conservatives 8-12, LibDems 2-4, Labour 1-3.
The narrow way
The seat projection based on my current super-sample would again deliver a rather awkward situation. Neither Labour nor the Conservatives would get a majority and any 'coalition combination' would be risky. On the other hand such a Parliament could possibly trigger a 1974ish scenario rather than a 1910ish scenario.
Based on this projection a hypothetical snap election would deliver 308 seats to the Con-DUP coalition and 268 to Labour. Even though the number of seats differ this could very well open the door for a 1974ish scenario. Like Labour giving Tories a free pass on a minimalist Queen's Speech dealing only with Brexit and Tories agreeing to another snap election within a year.
Which sounds far fetched but might actually not be. Odds are that in such a context Labour wouldn't even have to strongarm the Conservatives into a post-Brexit snap election. Mogglodytes would force Theresa May to call it. And probably will anyway sooner than later during current Parliament.
Based on this projection a hypothetical snap election would deliver 308 seats to the Con-DUP coalition and 268 to Labour. Even though the number of seats differ this could very well open the door for a 1974ish scenario. Like Labour giving Tories a free pass on a minimalist Queen's Speech dealing only with Brexit and Tories agreeing to another snap election within a year.
Which sounds far fetched but might actually not be. Odds are that in such a context Labour wouldn't even have to strongarm the Conservatives into a post-Brexit snap election. Mogglodytes would force Theresa May to call it. And probably will anyway sooner than later during current Parliament.
Us and them
As in any very close election only a small number of seats would change hands. Only 26 on current numbers with 11 in Scotland only, due to the SNP gaining back enough votes from Labour to kick them out of all their six 2017 gains and gaining back some Con-SNP marginals too.
Under current polling damage would be actually minimal for the Conservatives. Most of the defeated MPs would be backbenchers or past big names no longer holding Cabinet posts. Only 'mini Balls moments' would be two third-tier Ministers (Smith and Doyle-Price) and two Assistant Whips (Whittaker and Andrew) losing their seats. Nothing to write home about.
But there would be a truckload of irony in these results for Labour. Jeremy Corbyn would have to reinstate Ian Murray as Shadow Scottish Secretary despite there being little love lost between them. Just because Murray would be Labour's last man standing anywhere in Scotland. Too good not to wish for.
But there would be a truckload of irony in these results for Labour. Jeremy Corbyn would have to reinstate Ian Murray as Shadow Scottish Secretary despite there being little love lost between them. Just because Murray would be Labour's last man standing anywhere in Scotland. Too good not to wish for.
If
Right now even my alternate scenarios would not be really satisfying as none would deliver anything like a stable government. Even 'Labour minimum' would see the current Con-DUP alliance down to a majority of just two seats. The kind of fringe situation that would make them even more vulnerable than they are right now to any sort of Mogglodyte offensive or Remainer defection or possibly a combination of both.
While the Conservatives staying in power would require them squaring the circle, current House of Commons projections are even worse for Labour. Even on 'Labour maximum' Conservatives would still be the first party and have the first shot at delivering a Queen's Speech. Which would not pass unless Labour choose the 1974ish approach I described earlier.
Unless of course Labour take a giant leap of faith into the unknown (aye ah ken, mixed metaphor). When Asquith and Redmond struck a deal in 1910 the Liberals were committed to delivering Irish Home Rule against vociferous Conservative opposition. Today, with English parties joined at the hip by blind Unionism, any deal with the SNP would be a gamble. But it might have some upsides too if played well.
Corbyn agreeing to grant a Section 30 order would be like Cameron agreeing to the AV referendum of 2011. Allow it then actively campaign against it to deflect criticism. But realistically odds are he wouldn't dare it as too risky. After all he has recently made it a habit of backpedalling when facing criticism and is targeted by a rebellion that would destroy Labour as we know it. So self-preservation is bound to win the day. Also of course Yes might win.
When the tigers broke free
There has been a lot of speculation lately about an 'inevitable' Labour split. Most of it is based on rumours and circumstantial evidence which makes the split possible or even plausible rather than outright inevitable. Let's just assume for now that it does indeed happen and that the 'Jeremy Corbyn Party' and the 'Chuka Umunna Party' compete for the center-left vote at the next GE.
There is obviously no way to predict the exact outcome of such a competition. That would require knowing which MPs would choose which side, whether or not the two parties would stand against each other in every constituency, what kind of alliances could possibly emerge from the split, etc etc. With all these caveats duly accounted for, Electoral Calculus includes a 'Labour split' simulation in the advanced options on his prediction page.
To be on more solid ground I started from the 2017 results and simulated what might happen with NewLab (the 'Chuka Umunna Party') on 10, 15 and 20%. This is obviously just a very rough approximation but still an insight into how major a disaster the split would be for Labour.
Another option is to test what could possibly happen if NewLab went straight into an alliance or merger with the Liberal Democrats. In this case I added the possible NewLab vote to the 2017 LibDem vote. The results are less spectacular because of the way the prediction algorithm works but the number of projected 'New Alliance' MPs is nevertheless strikingly close to the actual 1983 and 1987 results. A hint that this Alliance would be just as 'successful' as the first one proving history can only repeat itself. But in this case the second time would be the tragedy as in 'three more shambolic Tory terms after Brexit disaster'.
There is obviously no way to predict the exact outcome of such a competition. That would require knowing which MPs would choose which side, whether or not the two parties would stand against each other in every constituency, what kind of alliances could possibly emerge from the split, etc etc. With all these caveats duly accounted for, Electoral Calculus includes a 'Labour split' simulation in the advanced options on his prediction page.
To be on more solid ground I started from the 2017 results and simulated what might happen with NewLab (the 'Chuka Umunna Party') on 10, 15 and 20%. This is obviously just a very rough approximation but still an insight into how major a disaster the split would be for Labour.
Another option is to test what could possibly happen if NewLab went straight into an alliance or merger with the Liberal Democrats. In this case I added the possible NewLab vote to the 2017 LibDem vote. The results are less spectacular because of the way the prediction algorithm works but the number of projected 'New Alliance' MPs is nevertheless strikingly close to the actual 1983 and 1987 results. A hint that this Alliance would be just as 'successful' as the first one proving history can only repeat itself. But in this case the second time would be the tragedy as in 'three more shambolic Tory terms after Brexit disaster'.
I guess the Umunnistas can do the math as well as me and know what their best option is. Bagging up to 80 seats as a standalone party is obviously better than a meagre 12-15 as part of a wobbly coalition. Downsides of course are that this would crash-land Labour for good and relegate the Corbynista brand of 'class politics' to fringe status up to the seventh generation. But wait…. naw. For them both of these would actually be upsides.
In any case the Labour split would offer the Conservatives a Thatcher-like or even Blair-like majority on a silver platter. One that would extremely difficult to overturn in any future GE. But I don't think Labour rebels think things out that far ahead. I guess they're only concentrated on kicking out Corbyn whatever the consequences and don't have any credible long-term plans. Resurrecting the Blairite Party is certainly not one anyway.
In any case the Labour split would offer the Conservatives a Thatcher-like or even Blair-like majority on a silver platter. One that would extremely difficult to overturn in any future GE. But I don't think Labour rebels think things out that far ahead. I guess they're only concentrated on kicking out Corbyn whatever the consequences and don't have any credible long-term plans. Resurrecting the Blairite Party is certainly not one anyway.
One of these days
UK and the EU will agree on some Brexit 'no-deal' deal. It now seems that the 'when' is not even set in stone while the 'what and how' have already been a matter of conjecture for quite a while now. The English government are obviously playing for time, which sounds odd as last month they seemed eager to reach a quick conclusion. Obviously Brexit is once again used to try and solve issues that concern only the Conservative Party, not to take care of the UK's best interests.
Pushing the 'meaningful vote' until after the Conference Recess is an obvious way to avoid any leadership challenge at the Conference. Which in turn means that the Surprise Snap Election Of 2018 will never happen and Theresa May gets away with it for a few more months. If the Mogglodytes are ready to wait until November or December to stage their coup, then they must also be ready to wait until 29 March. Then the floodgates will open and the walls will come tumbling down. Aye mixed metaphor again.
Conservative spads must also be counting on the 'NewLab' scenario actually happening. Then even a divided and directionless Conservative Party would cruise to a massive victory (see above). All things considered my best educated guess is that we might get a Surprise Snap Election Of 2019 some time in May or June. Which would have the additional 'upside' of jeopardizing any plans for an early Second Scottish Independence Referendum, if there ever were any.
Cha togar m' fhearg gun dìoladh
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