I've seen that movie too
Polls come and polls go. At the peak of the (smallish) Labour surge about a month ago Labour led by 3%. Then the momentum kind of died down for various reasons and now we're back to a tie. Current super-sample is based on six polls fielded between 20 July and 13 August with 8,982 respondents and 1% MOE.
Note that these polls were in the field before the wreath controversy and the Westminster attack so the impact of both will be seen only in the next batch. Right now I just wonder what the polls would say if MSM devoted as much space to Tory islamophobia and dark money as they do to alleged Labour antisemitism. Ironically Labour are just getting a taste of their own medicine after years of using similar methods against the SNP. One can only hope that someday political debate will veer away from the smear-lie-slander-repeat cycle. Juist sayin.
A House Divided
On current polling we find ourselves once more with a hung Parliament and both major parties far from a majority. 1910 all over again. Again. But it might very well end up being 1974 all over again.
If the actual result were to reflect this projection, the outcome would be a complete deadlock. Conservatives, though the first party, wouldn't pass their Queen's Speech as the SNP would vote against it. Bur Labour wouldn't pass theirs either as the SNP would not vote for it. But there's always the possibility that Labour would allow a Conservative minority government as interim caretakers for a few months until another snap election is called. Weirdest things have happened.
Changing of the guards
In this projection only 34 seats would change hands including a net gain of 12 seats for Labour. Far short of the 60+ needed for a majority. This is due in part to differential turnout on current boundaries giving Conservatives an in-built bonus of about 20 seats.
The complete list of seats changing hands is not much different from what we had the last time, give or take a few. Only noticeable new item is LibDems gaining back Sheffield Hallam from Labour. This is just a statistical result, but I guess Jared O'Mara's shenanigans make that a distinct possibility even if Labour were doing better overall.
For the record Electoral Calculus have 43 seats changing hands and a slightly different projection than mine. Main reason is that they apply the UK-wide swing also to Wales and London while I process both separately. Thus their results in both cases are better for Labour because recent polling in Wales and London is less than stellar for Labour who might even lose a seat each in both areas. They also use a different set of polls going further back in the past so the July Labour surge is still factored in in their sample.
Land of confusion
The alternate scenarios based on current polling are not really more satisfying than the median projection as neither would deliver an outright majority for either major party. Labour and Conservatives tied on the popular vote means that only part of the marginals switch to Labour in the median projection. A 1% swing would then displace about 20 seats but the geography of the marginals implies it would be more complex than just Con-Lab/Lab-Con switches and anyway not enough to deliver anything but a hung Parliament.
But both Conservatives and Labour could try some risky minority coalition based on the seat projections of my two extreme scenarios. On the 'Lab minimum' scenario the Conservatives could get away with a DUP deal again, which would probably cost another £1bn bribe. Being only four seats short of a majority all they would need to go through a full term would be a handful of Labstainers on key legislation, which they would certainly get. It would be trickier for Labour on the 'Lab maximum' scenario as the only option would be a Rainbow coalition which is unlikely to succeed unless they do a full U-turn on Brexit combined with a stronger commitment to tackle climate change. Both unlikely to happen.
Who knows what tomorrow may bring
The next batch of polls will show the fallout of the wreath controversy and this will likely be bad for Labour. A recent BMG poll shows that 60% of respondents feel Labour handled the situation badly or vey badly. Some on Twitter even believe and spread that Corbyn actually admitted to laying a wreath on the Münich terrorists' graves. Can't get worse than that. Or can it?
Of course Labour's problems go deeper than MSM's made-up controversies. They gave Theresa May a free pass on Brexit and there are no electoral dividends in this. They appear directionless and unconvincing even to life-long supporters like Patrick Stewart. It's unlikely they can recover in time for a snap election if there ever is one.
Stay tuned for further updates
Saor Alba gu bràth
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