Scottish Westminster projection - November 2018

The road so far

Once again Somebody Doon South seems eager to feel Scotland's pulse in almost real time so we got three Scottish Westminster polls this month: Survation for Channel 4 (fielded 30 Oct to 2 November), Panelbase for Constitutional Commission (fielded 2 to 7 November) and Survation for Scotland In Union (fielded 9 to 13 November). The SNP's Westminster voting intentions here are quite close to the Holyrood constituency voting intentions in recent polls which definitely sends a mixed message as it means Westminster vote is up while Holyrood vote is down. Good news though is that the last three Westminster polls show a slight SNP surge from earlier polling.

Here are the voting intentions these three polls predict when taken individually and their weighted average. Current super-sample is 3,336 with 1.64% MOE.

Interestingly the most recent trend again shows a slight swing from Labour to the SNP. As usual this will project into devastating results for Labour, quite predictable when looking at the change in vote shares from 2017.

The main swing is from Labour to the SNP with LibDems too snatching some votes from Labour. Greens and UKIP are also doing better but I think this will not materialize in the actual election. Polls implicitly assume all parties would stand in all constituencies which was far from true in past elections. So I guess Greens and UKIP will actually not do better than in 2017 as they again will field candidates in only a small number of constituencies. The Conservatives will benefit from the lack of UKIP candidates and might get roughly the same vote share as in 2017. The SNP mostly and Labour to a lesser extent will benefit from the absence of Green candidates though I think the 2% swing from Labour to SNP will stay.

And where does that take us?

The SNP nearly 2% up and Labour 3% down is bound to trigger some significant changes. Remember 20 Scottish seats were marginals in 2017 including 14 decided by less than 2%. Labour's lead in the six seats they gained in 2017 was barely 2% while the Conservatives led by 9% in the twelve seats they gained. So again the SNP would do well against Labour on current voting intentions while Tory MPs would prove harder to unseat. For now.

Here are the seat projections for the three polls individually and on their weighted average. Illustrating the Scottish electoral paradox: 39% at a Westminster election is a success and gains seats while 39% at a Holyrood election is a setback and loses seats.

Weighted average says the SNP would take back five seats from Labour (Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath, Midlothian, Rutherglen and Hamilton West)  and one from the Conservatives (Stirling). Then the distribution of the 59 seats by SLLM rating is also pretty good for the SNP with 35 seats held or gained with a margin larger than the polls' MOE.

But of course the SNP should devote special attention to the marginal seats which might deliver either good news or bad news depending on which way the wind blows.

What might possibly go wrong?

Right now polls suggest we would have eleven marginals, down from twenty in 2017. Good news is that only three of the six projected SNP gains are in the danger zone. Bad news is that three seats currently held by the SNP are too.

Pete Wishart and Stephen Gethins might be in trouble which comes as no surprise as their seats were the two closest in 2017. Angela Crawley too as her seat was the closest three-way marginal in the whole UK last year. But as usual a lot will depend on whom stands against them. For example Murdo Fraser standing in Perth and North Perthshire would undoubtedly improve Pete Wishart's chances. And Tories might even be daft enough to actually select him.

Below are the ranges of seats that can be expected when moving the swingometer to the outer limits of MOE. These results confirm that Labour is in worse shape now than last year as they would lose at least three seats no matter what. And that Conservatives remain the clearest and presentest danger for the SNP though we can't rule out a Brexitocalypse backlash that would seriously weaken them especially in the North East. And possibly spell doom for The Rosses, aye this one (especially if Angus Robertson is willing to try a rematch) and that one.

And finally the fully seat breakdown as usual from worst to best for the SNP.

What to expect next?

Interestingly the most recent poll was fielded after 7 November, the SNP's dies horribilis in Holyrood and shows an improvement over the previous one fielded just before 7 November. So maybe I was mistaken in my assessment of that day's fallout or more probably public opinion make a clear distinction between Westminster elections and Holyrood elections and what matters most in each case. Doesn't mean the SNP shouldn't be vigilant about the state of mind of public opinion and act accordingly. Listen and explain, which does not mean bowing to public pressure. Clue: watch Macron and do the opposite.

With less than stellar results expected at the next Holyrood election, an indisputable victory at the next GE is more necessary than ever. The SNP have to focus their campaign on two major issues: Independence and Brexit fallout. Don't make the same mistakes as in 2017. Don't let yourselves be dragged into debating P1 tests, planning, potholes, bin collections or whatever outside reserved matters. This is a GE not a Scottish Parliament election or Council elections.

Stick to what makes the best case for Scotland and hurts Tories the most. Like reminding public opinion that Tories sold out Scottish fishing industry to get a better deal for Gibraltar only to get that deal vetoed by Spain and Spain de facto getting shared custody of Gibraltar. Then never fail to highlight Labour's never ending hypocrisy. Like when they voted against Full Fiscal Autonomy and devolving social security schemes and now urge the SNP to cure the fallout of Tory austerity Labour supported or abstained on. Make it the main talking point that both the Brexit bùrach and the Universal Credit disaster are the shared responsibility of Tories and Labour. And don't worry too much about LibDems as they will make the case for their own irrelevancy.

Above all make Indy a major campaign issue so that the first lock in the triple-lock mandate is not just renewed but strengthened by an increased number of seats. After all Thatcher herself made that point.

And as usual stay tuned for further upsets and broadcasts.

Cha togar m' fhearg gun dìoladh

Holyrood projection - November 2018 update

More Scottish Parliament polling again

Five Holyrood polls were fielded in October and November, including two after the SNP conference: Survation for the Sunday Post (fielded 28 September to 2 October), Panelbase for the Sunday Times (fielded 28 September to 4 October), Survation for the SNP (fielded 3 to 5 October), Survation for the Daily Record (fielded 18 to 21 October) and Panelbase for the Constitutional Convention (fielded 2 to 7 November). As always there are noticeable discrepancies between their results so each taken individually might lead to different conclusions. So first here are the voting intentions from all five:

I will not draw hasty conclusions from just one poll as John Curtice did in The Daily Record based on the 21 October poll only. As always we must take a step back and look at the bigger picture. Though the SNP should be worried that the two polls fielded after the conference are also the ones with their lowest voting intentions. Current super-sample is 5,136 with 1.33% MOE. So, with all the usual caveats, here are the current weighted averages:

This is a clear warning for the SNP. Being 5% down on the constituency vote and 7% down on the list vote from the previous election means bad news. But bear in mind the SNP won 53 of their 59 constituency seats with double-digit margins in 2016 so most seats remain likely or safe holds. Then we all know the list results are largely pre-determined by the constituency results. So the odd ways AMS works make a 7% loss on the list vote less of a threat that you might think at face value. But the combination of both is a giant step into the danger zone.

The constituency results

On this polling here is how the 73 constituencies project on SLLM rating.

On current polling six seats would change hands, all from the SNP to the Conservatives: Angus North and Mearns (Mairi Gougeon), Aberdeen South and North Kincardine (Maureen Watt), Edinburgh Pentlands (Gordon MacDonald), Moray (Richard Lochhead), Perthshire North (John Swinney), Perthshire South and Kinross-shire (Roseanna Cunningham). The first five would be marginal gains with less than 2% lead so odds are the SNP could in fact hold them with strong campaigning. Perthshire South would be trickier as the projected Tory margin would be almost 6%. Then we would also have six marginal seats that might go either way, including five of the projected Tory gains.

Raw math says that Graeme Dey might have a harder time holding his seat than expected though a Tory gain remains a remote possibility. The drop in SNP vote also puts the current Labour seats out of the danger zone though Labour would still be unable to gain any extra one.

The regional lists results

As usual the bizarre workings of AMS would trigger more changes on the list seats. Here are the results we get by region on current polling. This time the Liberal Democrats and Labour would come out as the winners with three gains and two gains respectively and no losses.

For the other parties there would again be some sort of musical chairs with nine seats overall changing hands. Right now the list MSPs notionally losing there seats would be Ross Greer (Greens), Maree Todd, Paul Wheelhouse (SNP), Alison Harris, Jeremy Balfour, Alexander Stewart, Dean Lockhart, Peter Chapman and Tom Mason (Conservatives).

Interestingly five of the potentially defeated Tory list MSPs (Balfour, Stewart, Lockhart, Chapman, Mason) might even keep their day job if they're lucky enough to be selected in one of the constituencies Tories are projected to gain in their respective regions. Though one of them would have to throw Murdo Fraser under the bus to get selected in Perthshire North. And two of the potentially defeated SNP constituency MSPs (MacDonald, Gougeon or Watt) might be just as lucky if they top the list in their regions. The 'compensatory seats for FPTP losers' part of AMS.

The big picture

Finally here is what the next Scottish Parliament would look like on this polling, and how the parties would perform in terms of net gains and losses. The Liberal Democrats and Labour would score only gains, while the other parties would have a mix of gains and losses. And the end result is quite distressing.

These results would be an unmitigated disaster for both the SNP and the Yes Movement as a whole. Switching from a nine-seat pro-Independence majority to a one-seat Unionist majority would blow up two of the locks in the triple-lock mandate to seek Independence. Now just picture the electoral schedule if no snap GE happens in the meantime: Holyrood elections in 2021 and 2026, Westminster elections in 2022 and 2027. Provided the pro-Independence majority comes back in 2026, the first realistic window of opportunity for another Section 30 order would be 2028. Meaning independence pushed back to 2030 at best, if ever. Let that sink in and you will realize why the SNP definitely need to up their game and do it quick (more on this below). Of course that also means SNP voters need to get their asses out of the couch and get the fuck out to vote. With all due respect.

But as usual there is more here that meets the eye at first glance. So I tried to determine which alternate scenarios are possible under current polling. It's quite easy to figure out which constituency seats are marginals but a wee smitch trickier for marginal list seats. I simply added a feature to my model that swings the list vote shares to the outer limits of MOE, uniformly across all regions. It's admittedly a rather crude approach but it delivers a rough estimate of what could happen with both the FPTP and the list vote moving to the edges of MOE:

The pro-Independence parties could now be anywhere between 60 and 68 seats. Which doesn't mean a pro-Independence majority could be held that easily. Odds are more like 3-to-2 in favour of a Unionist majority. Labour and the SNP are the two most impacted by small swings and for the exact opposite reasons. Labour because they rely almost exclusively on list seats and the SNP because they rely almost exclusively on FPTP seats, so both are more sensitive to even small swings in either category. Conservatives have a more balanced representation so fall in the grey zone where changes in FPTP seats are roughly compensated by changes in the other direction in list seats.

Finally the usual breakdown of seats by region.

Just remember that some surprises may happen with the seventh list seats as some would be allocated with less than 1% margin. AMS delivers marginal list seats just like FPTP delivers marginal constituencies. For example Ross Greer would lose his West Scotland seat by barely 2k votes out of an estimated 300k turnout, while Greens would miss a seat in South Scotland by about 800 votes and hold one in Mid Scotland and Fife by about 700 votes. And the surprise SNP seats in Lothian and North East would be gained by 300 and 700 votes respectively.

Can election projection models be trusted?

Questions are often asked about the reliability of projection models and the results they deliver. All legitimate questions as the seat projections often make headlines and undoubtedly influence the parties' campaign strategies. Besides my own model I know of two sites who currently offer a prediction tool for Scottish Parliament: Scotland Votes and Election Polling. I have explained in a previous post how my own model works. I don't know the exact algorithms used by the other two models but the results they deliver give strong hints about how they work.

So here is what my model projects from the five polls taken individually and their weighted average:

Same using Scotland Votes:

Same using Election Polling:

Finally how the three models allocate constituency and list seats, based on the weighted average:

The results from all three models are quite similar as might be expected. The differences in constituency seats come from the relative weight of Uniform National Swing (UNS) versus Proportional National Swing (PNS) used in the algorithms. The differences between UNS and PNS are explained here. I have done various simulations that show Scotland Votes uses pure PNS and Election Polling uses pure UNS while my own model uses 30% PNS + 70% UNS. UNS is slightly more favourable for the SNP while PNS is slightly more favourable for the Tories.

Differences in the list seats results come from the way the raw data are processed. Both Scotland Votes and Election Polling appear to use full UNS across al regions. I rely instead on regional crosstabs when they exist (Survation) and full UNS only when the pollster does not publish regional crosstabs of the list vote (Panelbase). Then I can only state the obvious again: projections are only as good as the polls they use. And we all know UK polls in general and Scottish polls specifically are not exactly the most reliable in the galaxy.

Of course what really matters is that all three models show an Unionist majority. Whether it's by one seat or three seats is irrelevant. The point is that these results, plus the fact that the most recent polls are also the worst, should raise huge red flags for everyone in the SNP. The next Holyrood election is three-and-a-half years away and already Unionists are on the offensive on all fronts. So should the SNP lest they be doomed to suffer a major setback.

And now what can possibly go wronger?

I am less optimistic right now about the SNP's future prospects than I was a month or two ago. This is not just because of the less than stellar voting intentions in the most recent polls as we don't know yet if this is the start of a real downward trend or not. It has more to do with what happened in Holyrood two weeks ago and how the SNP fumbled it on two major issues. Two major political fuckups, one of which is already a PR disaster and the other a timebomb.

First we had the SNP voting down Labour and Green amendments to the Planning Bill. The story has already been told so I won't repeat it, and all the hard facts are in the Official Committee Report anyway. You could call that one an own goal. When even The National publishes a highly critical article on the issue, you should realize something went wrong. Unless of course if you think pissing off environmentalists and community activists, who otherwise might have felt inclined to support you, while handing out ready-to-use live ammunition to the oppositions is a viable option.

On the afternoon of the same day Scottish Parliament passed the infamous People's Vote amendment, which made an already bad day even worse. This story too has been told repeatedly with all sorts of spin by everyone from Patrick Harvie to Andrew Adonis. As usual all the gory details are duly recorded in the Official Chamber Report. If you read the full motion as amended it is quite obvious that Tavish Scott's amendement is not actually one. Rather it's a rider (non-germane amendment in parliamentary lingo). And quite obviously appending it to Richard Lochhead's motion was a trick to ensure it would pass, as SNP MSP's would find it more important to support the motion than to question the amendment. And it worked though some reportedly have buyer's remorse now. But too late. 

You might remember that I explained why the SNP supporting People's Vote would be very bad idea. That was three months ago. Others on Twitter sent strong warnings too at about the same time, long before the SNP conference. A lot of SNP MPs, former MPs, MSPs and local branches are on Twitter and quite a number of them follow me and other 'concerned Yes tweeps' who addressed the issue back then. So it's not like the SNP can pretend they haven't been warned. As much as I hate going into 'I told you so' mode, I guess that's just the thing to do this time. 

Then we had Pete Wishart and Angus MacNeil voicing concern about how support to People's Vote could harm the second Independence referendum. When both the 'cautious path to Indy' guy and the 'bold path to Indy' guy raise the same objections, it should flash a massive red light and give reason to think it through. Especially when you remember that Wishart tweeted early in August that he was 'open to the idea' of supporting People's Vote and then obviously fully assessed the downside. That all of this did not set off an alarm invites the obvious question: what are Sturgeon's ulterior motives here?

Because of course nothing beats pissing off SNP-Leave voters and Yes-Leave voters in a single blow. Except possibly drawing flak from your own parliamentarians while going squarely against public opinion who don't support the SNP's stand here. The National had an online poll on the very issue after the ScotParl vote and here is what it says:

I see a disturbing similarity with the 2010 coalition deal here. Just like Nicola Sturgeon with People's Vote, Nick Clegg had made up his mind beforehand to ram the coalition deal down his party's throat not matter what. And it did not exactly end well for the Liberal Democrats and Clegg himself. Let's just hope the similarity will not go that far for the SNP.

More than ever stay tuned for further upsets and further broadcasts.

Saor Alba Gu Bràth

Westminster projection - 04.11.2018 update

Idiot Wind

Public opinion is a strange beast indeed. When you least expect it, and when all recent events should lead to the exact opposite, polls show an unmistakeable Conservative surge. And one that goes beyond the Labour surgelet we had in July. Unbelievable as it may seem, Tories would do better in a snap election held this week than they did in 2017.

Trends definitely show it. The Conservatives are back in the lead and with a higher margin than last year. Even the LibDems surge that could have damaged Conservatives' prospects seems to be now dead in its tracks, though they would still do a wee smitch better than at the last GE. And the SNP is no longer on an upward trend, though also still doing better than last year. Full Scottish polls fielded in October show it as I already discussed in my last Scottish Westminster update.

So it seems we reached this twilight zone where democracy ceases to be an educated choice and morphs into a cross between delusion and idiocy. Which by the way you can blame on the Little England voters only as they still are the ones most likely to fall for Tory propaganda.

Sitting on a Barbed Wire Fence

The oddest part of this polling is that 'None Of The Above' is still the preferred next PM if polls are to be believed. But once this is taken out, Theresa May still wins over Jeremy Corbyn. Though with like 40% of respondents sitting on the fence this one is still far from a resounding vote of confidence. But May saved her ass for now in front of the 1922 Committee so she might not in such a precarious position as she was a few weeks ago, whatever polls say.

But of course the most important part is current voting intentions. My updated super-sample includes six polls fielded between 11 October and 30 October, all after the Conference Season and enough to get a fairly good idea of its fallout. Sample size is 8,288 with a 1.04% MOE. And here is what it says:

Saying that the Labour Conference failed to make the desired effect would be the understatement of the year. A 4% Conservative lead is more than we've seen for months and more than in 2017. Don't ask me what went wrong. Ask Jeremy Corbyn. And now their muddled stance on tax thresholds certainly won't help either especially after 20 Labour MPs defied the whip and voted against Hammond's last batch of artistically crafted tax cuts for the wealthiest.

Changing of the Guards

On these numbers here is the House of Commons we would get. Nothing like a major upset. More like taking us back just a few years as it would look quite similar to the 2015 House.

This wouldn't be a realigning election like 1945, 1979 or 1997. More like a readjustment election like most GEs are. Tories would just get a small but sufficient majority just as in 2015 and the upside for them would be not needing the DUP crutch anymore and all the bribing and blackmailing that goes with it.

Now you might notice that Tories would get 333 seats. Which is exactly half of 666. Just make the hell what you want of that 👿😎. And Labour would get 237, which is the number of the haunted room in Stanley Kubrick's version of Stephen King's The Shining. But again don't read too much into this either.

It's All Over Now, Baby Blue

What current polling predicts is 31 seats changing hands, quite low by usual GE standards. Only 1951, 1955, October 1974 and 2001 saw a lower number of changes. And that low number of changes delivered a new majority only once in 1951. So we would be very far from an earthquake election even though the Conservatives would feel in a festive mood after gaining back a majority. Guess that the SNP and the Liberal Democrats would be more relieved than festive after such results as it could have ended up far worse for both.

There would be nothing too sensational in the list of MPs losing their seats. Though some of the changes might not happen depending on who is actually selected. I can't see Labour reselecting Woodcock or O'Mara so that might be a way to save both seats in spite of the math. Then Labour has de facto made reselection mandatory, and of course some deselected MPs might choose to stand as independents, which would totally reshuffle the deck. And certainly switch the seats because of split votes.

So no real Balls Moments to be expected here. Labour would lose just two members of the Shadow Cabinet: Lesley Laird and Paul Sweeney. And I guess Labour HQ would shrug it off anyway as acceptable collateral damage as both definitely failed to make a lasting impression either on their party or on Scottish public opinion.

Simple Twist of Fate

Then we would have 49 marginal seats overall where the winner's margin is within MOE. With an uncomfortably high proportion in Scotland and relatively few in England. Blame that on the number of safe seats the last GE delivered for both Conservatives and Labour.

Under the proper local circumstances Labour might still find a way to unseat Iain Duncan Smith in London or Stephen Crabb in Wales. But Boris Johnson's seat is definitely out of reach and now even Anna Soubry and Amber Rudd are squarely out of the danger zone. That is until polls take another unexpected turn, which might still happen sooner than later.

Don't Think Twice, It's All Right

Alternate scenarios after reallocating the marginals to the runner-up don't really change the big picture. Worst case scenario for the Conservatives would basically be a repeat 2017 which, except for the DUP thorn in their side, would be almost just as good as a repeat 2015, considering. Guess Theresa May's spad team could spin even the status quo as a victory.

Even the Conservatives' best case scenario would not be a Titanic disaster for Labour as it would not be much worse than a repeat 2015. At least nothing they can't recover from with the right strategies. Which might include taking a real and united stand on major issues and voting accordingly. Including not abstaining. But maybe I'm asking for too much here. By the way stopping obsessing over Scotland and starting concentrating on England might be a good idea too. Juist sayin.

Union Sundown

Much has already been said about Brexit increasing the likelihood of Scottish Independence and Irish Reunification. Time will tell. But already current polling confirms the deep geographical divide between the nations and also a deepening rift within England itself.

Don't be flabbergasted by the massive Tory lead in England. Just remember that in 2017 Tories won England by 4% overall, and by 7% with London taken out. So it's more like history repeating itself with just a swing to the worse for Labour in some English regions. The slightly better LibDem result certainly doesn't help either in competitive seats. UKIP's surge too is not such good news for Labour as we already know they're likely to take as many votes from Labour as from the Conservatives especially in Labour-Leave constituencies.

Current polling confirms widely different patterns from one English region to the other. Voting intentions did not move in the exact same directions since last year but the North-South divide is still here. And possibly stronger with Midlands having moved slightly towards Labour. What the future may bring is hard to tell. Only that England falling apart is not as far fetched a scenario as might have been a few years ago. Minimal devolution within England has already started and you can only expect more demand for it. Until the Union sundown turns into a full Union breakdown.

Just think twenty years ahead. Independent Scotland. Independent Wales. Reunited Ireland. And a Federal England with maximum devolution to all its nine constituent regions. Don't tell me it wouldn't work. That's the way the United States have worked since 1776 and Germany since 1949. Only Little Englander spirits could stop that from happening. And alas probably would.

But one can dream. Or can't he?

Going, Going, Gone

Not so long ago the question was: when will May be gone? Now it seems to have become: will she go at all? It's common knowledge the Mogglodytes already have the 48 signatures needed to trigger a leadership contest. Only they have chosen not to forward them to the 1922 Committee for now. Because you never know how it could end. Again it's all about Tory factions and not the best interests of the UK.

Soubrynistas don't have the numbers to trigger a leadership contest and probably wouldn't if they had them, as the winner would be Johnson or Rees-Mogg and they don't want either as the next PM. Johnsonites and Mogglodytes might feel trigger-happy at times but then the leader of the other faction might win and that's reason enough to take a step back and think it through before blowing the place up.

Then May might get help from where you least expect it (or do you?): Labour. 'Westminster grapevine' has it that some 45 Labour MPs would defy the whip and back the PM on Chequers or whatever other variant of the 'no-deal deal' she tables for a Commons vote some time in November. And on top of that you'd probably have like a dozen Labour abstainers. Which might be just enough to counterbalance the Mogglodytes' and Soubrynistas' defections and grant May the get-out-of-jail-free card she needs.

If May wins the Brexitocalypse 'no-deal deal' vote even by only a handful of votes, she can easily spin it into a major success. No matter where the votes came from and why, that would make her immune to a leadership challenge for at least some months. So don't hold your breath. May might very well be in a position to hold a snap election at a date of her choosing. Or not hold it at all.

But as usual expect the unexpected. And stay tuned for further updates.

Wha daur meddle wi' me

It's Alright Ma (I'm Only Bleeding)
© Bob Dylan, 1964