Westminster Projection - Last Of Twenty Eighteen

More Trouble Every Day

General Election polling has steadily sent mixed messages over the last two months. The electorate in disarray does not come as a surprise in these troubled times when the new Frontbenchers' Game, both Tory and Labour, is to contradict each other at every opportunity and Prime Minister's Questions have turned into their own gag reel. There is nothing here that will restore faith in the Westminster System and its skulduggeries. Both major parties continue to lose votes compared to 2017, with their combined votes under 80%.

The most amazing part is that Labour prove unable to bag a sizeable lead and probably won't either in the foreseeable future (more on that below). The English Government are in a dire situation indeed with approval ratings no better than Gordon Brown's in 2008 or Margaret Thatcher's in 1990. But back then the winters of discontent offered the opposition a clear lead in voting intentions, not quite what we have right now. Looks like people just stopped paying attention to the acrobatics of the Westminster powerplay and will switch back on only three months from now. Picture it as Brexit-As-Root-Canal. People know it's gonna be messy and painful so let's just get it done and move on. And in the meantime pretend we still want Tories in charge to sort out the bùrach.

Of course there is no way of telling which way public opinion will go once they start paying attention again. Only sure thing is that there is not much of an appetite for a Labour majority these days and even less for PM Corbyn. Guess we will now have to wait until next year for more polling and see if we finally get past the stalemate. Because Saturnalia Season is not this time of the year when respectable pollsters overload the plebs with redundant voting intentions data. Rather it's that time of the year when England drinks and goes home for the yearly ritual of watching the latest instalment of the Lizzie Windsor Yuletide Show.

Because of course nothing lifts you up like watching a century-old billionaire benefit scrounger deliver platitudes about peace, love, understanding and togetherness while seated in front of a golden piano that even Elton John would find too camp-cheap to actually play on. At least Elizabeth seems to enjoy her £6 million pay raise, one that would cover the yearly wages of 164 Experienced Senior Paramedics on current NHS rates. By the way the cost of the taxpayer-funded refurbishment of Buckingham is higher than the GDP of Micronesia. Jist sayin for the benefit of the last few remaining Windsor worshippers.

The Torture Never Stops

Back in the real world of working and voting oiks, the current polling average looks pretty similar to what we had two weeks ago. Today's super-sample includes six polls fielded between 4 December and 20 December before pollsters too went into Christmas Recess. Sample size is 13,824 with a 0.81% MOE and it still delivers Tories and Labour basically nose to nose.

Note that the 'poll of polls' includes the YouGov Mega Poll for People's Vote fielded 14-15 December with a 5k sample size. YouGov polls are always slightly more Tory-friendly than others so this one probably skews the average towards Tories by about 1% but this does not make a big difference in the projected seat distribution as we remain anyway in the Twilight Zone where no party is strong enough for an outright majority.

The projected changes in vote shares from 2017 stick to the well-known pattern of both major parties losing votes in various directions, while only LibDems and SNP are in a situation where gaining votes actually translates into gaining seats.

Pick Me, I'm Clean

As you might expect indecisive polling would once again deliver a messy result. Even John McDonnell's Magic Plan of a Labour-DUP deal would fall far short of delivering a majority. Downside (or upside?) of such results would be that both Theresa May (or somebody else, see below) and Jeremy Corbyn would have to go as I can't imagine their respective parties still willing to have them as leaders after such debacles. Then new leadership (Rudd and Umunna anyone?) could go for some freakish out-of-the-box thinking like a German-like Grand Coalition. After all One-Nationers and post-Blairites already agree on the basics: fuck the 99% for the benefit of the 1% and privatize NHS while you're at it. Then there's just the small matter of Rudd actually holding her seat, which is not the likeliest of outcomes right now (see below too).

Basic maths say other combinations are indeed possible even if politically unlikely. Con-DUP would still get 308 seats so the next Tory leader might be willing to gamble a minority coalition knowing that Labour in shambles would make their life easier. On the other hand Lab-Lib-SNP would have a majority on 328 seats. PM McDonnell would rule this option out but possibly PM Starmer might be open to the suggestion. Odds are though that nothing would work but for a short time and the only way out of the bùrach-on-top-of-bùrach would be yet another snap GE, making 2019 the third Year-Of-Two-Elections in history.

Little House I Used To Live In

On this polling only 31 seats would change hands, again not a satisfactory situation for Labour and Conservatives as both would gain some and lose some. Again too only LibDems and SNP could call this a success though neither would bag anything like truly earth-shattering gains. If LibDems managed to get over 30 seats and SNP over 50 that would tell a different story but we're not there yet as the balance of gains and losses shows.

Remember that last year 60 of the 318 Tory seats were won by less than 10%. The exact number of seats Labour need to gain for a majority. But that would require a 5% swing from Conservatives to Labour and Labour not losing any of their current seats, quite unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future. And now we have today's projected losers:

Labour's only real satisfaction would be unseating Amber Rudd, which would shatter once and for all any dream she might have of ever becoming Prime Minister. But the margin would only be 2% so Rudd might miraculously hold the seat by the skin of her teeth whatever the national context. I also suspect some in Labour would secretly rejoice at the prospect of mavericks O'Mara and Dent Coad losing their seats. Just as some others might find it a better strategy to let Soubry hold her seat just for the fun of seeing her again voicing what should be Labour talking points from the Tory backbenches.

Any Way The Wind Blows

Right now 51 seats would be decided within MOE, which varies from area to area as numbers of available polls and sample sizes differ. 22 projected Conservative seats, 19 projected Labour seats and 5 projected SNP seats qualify but usual small swings in voting intentions would substantially change the list.

This does not mean that only 51 seats are potentially competitive. Many more are as the standard definition of 'Marginal' is broader than simply 'within MOE'. And even 'Lean' seats can become competitive if local factors work strongly against the sitting MP. The 2017 results in Scotland are a textbook case with a 13.4% swing from the SNP to the Conservatives, unseating some SNP MPs who had gained or held their seats by double digits in 2015. SLLM breakdown is as follows (2017 result compared to current 2022 projection):

The number of potentially competitive seats (Marginal + Lean) is stable at about 150. Closer polling results also mean the number of safe seats goes down but Labour can still count on about 200 such seats and Conservatives on about 180 (down from about 220 and about 245 respectively in 2017). This of course does not mean any safe seats have become competitive as those 'demoted' switched to 'Likely' which still means a strong double digit margin and majorities mostly over 10k. Bear in mind massive swings like Scotland 2015 are 'once in a generation' events. Or not….

Would You Go All The Way?

Possible alternate outcomes are not really better than the basic projection as we would still be in the now familiar territory where the choice is between no majority and a weak majority. Hardly anything has changed over the last two weeks and getting a workable coalition is still a case of squaring the circle.

Of course a continuation of the Con-DUP deal is still a possibility and would have a 3-seat majority if Tories do really well and Labour really bad. But it depends on how many Tory Grandees would still be willing to put up with Arlene Foster's whims for any length of time. My best guess is that few would even if that meant risking a minority government.

At the other end of the seat range Labour could boast being the first party, even by just one seat, and try passing a Queen's Speech of their own. Which would probably fail as LibDems, Plaid Cymru and Greens would demand a firm commitment to a People's Vote or even a full repeat EU referendum and Labour are definitely not going down that road (more below). Ironically even the elephant-in-the-roomish Labour-SNP deal would fall one seat short of a majority and would not even be a fantasy option. So get ready for the Second Snap Election Of 2019 in a matter of months.

Broken Hearts Are For Assholes

The Frank Zappa songbook offers several valuable options for the title of this section. 'Treacherous Cretins' and 'Dumb All Over' would have nailed it nice and neat too. Because, you guessed it, this is about Jeremy Corbyn going full-Brexit and John McDonnell advocating a deal with DUP rather than with Plaid Cymru, the Greens and the SNP. This has already triggered a huge backlash from Labour supporters and the electoral fallout will certainly leave them heartbroken when the body count rises by the score. Then they have only their own party to blame for choosing the surest path to a GE defeat. The proverbial 'snatching defeat from the jaws of victory' doesn't even cover the sheer idiocy of it all. Who are the 'stupid people' now?

Two YouGov polls this month tested the 'Labour Goes Brexit' scenario. First the aforementioned poll for People's Vote, fielded 12-14 December. Then another one for Hope Not Hate, fielded 14-15 December. Both start with the usual voting intentions question with the results slightly more Tory-leaning than average, as is usual with YouGov. Then come the 'Brexit Options' asking respondents (roughly) how they would vote with only Conservatives backing Brexit and all others backing a People's Vote, or alternatively if both Conservatives and Labour backed Brexit and the others did not. The 'Con-only Brexit' option is kind of a mixed bag but the 'Con and Lab Brexit' option definitely sends Labour down Motorway To Hell. 

Corbyn's Praetorian Guard will now argue he did the right thing because 64% of Labour constituencies voted Leave. Which is disingenuous and a blatant distorsion of what actually happened. Sorry for the reality check, comrades, but constituencies don't vote, people do. Back then 63% of all constituencies 'voted Leave' but only 52% of people did. And only some 35% of your own chose Leave. Which is probably why the extreme scenarios in both polls show Labour losing about a third of their 2017 seats. But 'thanks' to the odd workings of First Past The Post this would not translate into a LibDems tsunami as they would only get at best third party status, almost tied with the SNP.

The LibDems' problem is obviously that the 2015 and 2017 GEs reduced them to nearly fringe status and there's nothing even a massive swing towards them can cure overnight. Even in Scotland where these polls predict them up to 19% of the popular vote this would gain them only one seat (North East Fife) from the SNP. The irony is that the increased LibDem vote would actually benefit the Conservatives in England by taking away a fair amount of Remain voters from Labour. A similar pattern would emerge in Scotland with opposite effect as LibDems would be more 'successful' in the North East where they once did rather well. But here this would favour the SNP in competitive seats by scraping just enough votes off the Conservative share to make them lose up to 10 of their 2017 seats.

To be honest there is something odd in Labour taking such a drubbing as current EU referendum polling is not that straightforward. Admittedly recent polls show that Remain would win by 4 to 6% but so did polls fielded in the fortnight before the 2016 vote, so there is every reason to be sceptical about it. Moreover recent polling also shows public opinion have more or less resigned themselves to seeing Brexit happen in whatever form be it bad, badder or baddest. Only about 30% actually want a second EU referendum and 10% want to see the matter resolved by a snap GE. 15-20% would support a renegotiation if the May Deal fails as expected, 20-25% would go for hard Brexit and only about 10% would support revoking Article 50.

The only reason why public opinion would want to inflict such harsh punishment on Labour is a sense of betrayal. You probably don't remember but I just checked and back in 2016 only 11 Labour MPs supported Leave while 221 supported Remain. Even Jeremy Corbyn publicly supported Remain whatever his Inner Socialist might have whispered in his ear. Tories can get away with lies and deceit and betrayal because they can't help it, it's the very nature of the Nasty Party and people don't expect anything else from them. But I have a hunch public opinion actually held Corbyn's Labour to higher standards. Then Labour failed them and now have forfeited any claim they might have had of being a true alternative, so the potential punishment matches the perceived betrayal.

We've Got To Get Into Something Real

All things considered, psephology is to an actual election pretty much what wanking is to intercourse. A nice enough substitute for a while but nothing beats the real thing. And we might be closer than we think to the real thing, that is the (First?) Snap Election Of 2019. What happens in Commons on 14 January will set the tone and probably decide the fate of some major players. Theresa May has bought herself a 12-month stay of execution by friendly fire if the rumour is true that her entourage actually encouraged some cautious rebel MPs to send their no confidence letters, knowing that the huge number of MPs on government payroll would save her even if a majority of backbenchers voted against her.

But 14 January is still likely to be May's Day Of Reckoning as the odds of her not-that-much-of-a-deal passing are just as slim as they were before the Christmas Recess. Guardian have stopped updating their headcount and are still predicting the deal going down 425-214. My opinion is that it will be even worse even allowing for a substantial number of Tory abstentions. I think Tory MPs have precious fuck all in the way of incentives to change their vote and if they had a shift from opposing to abstaining is much more likely that from opposing to supporting, and even then only very few would.

Theresa May could probably try strongarming, bribing or blackmailing some MPs into changing their vote but the latter would require some News-Of-The-World-grade material. Strongarming might backfire as everybody remembers that even Arlene Foster is better at it than Treeza. Bribes are no longer what they once were now that we know even Twiggy and Harry Kane are eligible to a New Year's Trinket, so John Redwood might feel entitled to something more substantial. And old-fashioned blackmail might fail now that David Mundell has liked a tweet about sucking dick for Christmas, so the bar is high and any blackmailable material would have to be truly radioactive and then some.

As I see it Theresa May's future is far from bright despite the 'almost confidence' vote. We already know that 'Britannia ruled the waves but Tories waive the rules'. The 1922 Committee can and certainly will move the goalposts and oust May no matter what if the Best-Of-The-Only-Deal vote proves to be too much of a trainwreck. Best educated guess is that they are already working on it and will trigger Mayxit some time in late January. Then it will be the Night of the Long Knives for the sharks already circling the Mayboat. And the very thought of Sleekit Gove possibly being the dark horse winning the race by a nostril makes you think that you can 'bury the rag most deep in your face for now is the time for your tears'.

This concludes my last entry for 2018. As the cliché goes 'hope for the best but be ready for the worse' next year. But don't fool yourself, there is no reason to believe 2019 will be any better than 2018 whoever the tenant of Number Ten is. Quite the opposite in fact as it's a safe bet that Brexitocalypse will bring out the worst out of Little England. And always bear in mind that, whatever the outcome of the Snap Election(s) Of 2019, we already know what it means for Scotland.

Indulge in some French champagne on New Year's Day because next year all we might have left is Sussex Champagne and stay tuned for more ramblings.

With love to all IndyDugs and their Moms and Dads.


Wha daur meddle wi' me

© Frank Zappa, 1976

Westminster projection - 16.12.2018 update

Dominance And Submission

As expected the last batch of polls have taken an unexpected turn. Again. After a long period of Tory dominance we had a shortish and smallish Labour surge followed by the return to the ambiguous and awkward situation where the two major English parties are statistically tied. As was often the case in the past, public opinion tends to submit to the MSM's talking points, which are mostly outrageously biased to favour the Conservatives and will have kind words for Labour only if and when it helps scoring cheap points against the SNP. Note all the recent polls were fielded before the Tory confidence vote and it's too early to assess its impact on voting intentions.

Multiple variables will be at play in shaping future voting trends and they will contradict each other. Some will favour the Conservatives as Theresa May is oddly still considered a better choice for PM than Jeremy Corbyn. The 'not changing horses midstream' argument that worked in May's favour in the confidence vote might also work with public opinion even if it will look more and more like a variant of the 'devil you know' argument. Labour might want to play on May's abysmal approval rating (net -22% in most recent poll) but this could backfire as Corbyn's rating is even worse (net -32% in same poll).

The big problem for both parties is that their talking points include more negatives about the other one than positives about themselves. Which also explains why both are down from 2017 while other parties are all up. Not that Greens and UKIP being up means anything as both will fail to stand in most constituencies. Greens because the plan is to boost Labour vote as they did last year and UKIP because they will probably be down to fewer members than seats when the time comes. On the other hand LibDems and SNP gaining votes will definitely have some impact on the final result. In a very close election either of them might be able to deprive the winner of an outright majority and emerge as the kingmakers. Which is not the case, yet.

Hot Rails To Hell

My current super-sample includes the six most recent polls at the time of writing, fielded between 26 November and 7 December. Sample size is 9,275 with a 0.99% MOE. And despite a 1% swing to Tories since my last projection it still fails to deliver anything but a muddy outcome.

The differences between the 2017 vote and current voting intentions again show that neither of the two main parties has ground to celebrate. If anything current polls only add more uncertainty to an already unstable context.

The 'classic' definition of swing would sell this as a 0.7% swing from Conservatives to Labour as it factors in only the gap between the two leading parties. Of course this is far from the truth and the actual situation is more complex. Like a combination of a 2.5% swing from Labour to Greens and a 4% swing from Conservatives to UKIP with smaller swings from both to LibDems on top of that.

And interesting point here is that the combined Conservative and Labour vote under current polling would be 76%, which is a low point compared to the trends seen since 1945. During this period the combined vote for the two main parties reached an all-time high in 1955 on 96% and an all-time low in 2010 on 65%. 76% would be similar to what was witnessed in the late 1980s or early 1990s though the make-up of the 'third parties' vote has changed significantly since.

It is common knowledge that the Westminster System is not friendly to third parties or attempts to think outside the box. Back in the early 20th century it took Labour twenty-two years to emerge as the second party and another seven before they became the first party. And as we know they flubbed it then and did not recover until 1945. Since then the system has been even more unfriendly to alternate parties as even the Liberals' and then Liberal Democrats' surge from the mid-seventies to the early 21st century failed to get them to power, except for the Coalition's five years which ended up sinking them back to fringe status. Interestingly the only successful attempt to think outside the box and challenge the system was the SNP landslide in 2015. The dismal 2017 result does not negate this as discontent in the two main parties' Scottish Branch Offices is bound to boost the SNP's chances next time.

Redeemed

The projected result under current polling would be a major failure for both major parties, with only the LibDems and the SNP having grounds for celebration. Even the small shift towards Tories over the last week would not prevent another setback of the same magnitude as the 2017 one, with 17 seats gone. Again this would end up making the UK likely ungovernable.

For completeness sake I again compared my result to what Electoral Calculus and Election Polling would deliver when fed with the same data. As expected there are only minor differences and nothing that can't be blamed on the subtle nuances between the projection algorithms. All leading to the same conclusion: such a snap GE would only lead to an inextricable mess where forming a strong and stable government would be tantamount to squaring the circle to the power of three.

Unless of course Labour are ready for a high-stakes gamble and outside-of-the-box thinking. And finally strike a deal with the SNP. Which is likely to happen the day after Labour convince Sinn Féin to take their seats to help oust the Tories. Provided Labour haven't struck a deal with the DUP first, which right now seems to be less of a pipe dream than you might think at face value.

Don't Fear The Reaper

On these numbers the body count would be relatively low with only 29 seats projected to change hands. Despite a poor showing overall Labour would still have their one PortiBalls moment unseating Amber Rudd, but otherwise would have to be content with only second-tier trophies (one whip and three PUSSs).

The overall balance of gains and losses would again only emphasize that Labour still have a long way to go before their MPs sit on John Bercow's right-hand side. Losing a handful of seats to the SNP is only to be expected and there's probably nothing they can do to avoid it. But losing some to Conservatives and LibDems too is definitely bad karma and there ain't no ready cure for that.

Wings Wetted Down

On current polling there would be only 50 marginal seats, confirming the next GE would be decided in only a small proportion of really competitive seats. More than two thirds of seats are still projected to be safe for the 2017 winner so there's no way a landslide election is likely to happen next time. Any scenario delivering a change of government would certainly be closer to 1951 than 1945 or 1997.

Right now Labour still have an opening for a symbolic gain in South Swindon, currently held by Solicitor General for England and Wales Robert Buckland. The seat is a bellwether held by Labour in a not too distant past. The way the Attorney General's Office handled the recent Article 50 ruling, and Buckland's own part in the process, should make him a prime target if Labour are 100% serious about getting the Tories out. Juist sayin'.

What Is Quicksand

Alternate scenarios under current polling are definitely bad for Labour as they reflect the slight swing towards Conservatives over the last two weeks. What was then the 'Labour minimum' scenario has become the likely outcome and the then median projection has shifted to 'Labour maximum' scenario. There is now a real possibility Conservatives could save their asses by a hair on a status quo result.

Labour need to do much better than current polling suggests if they want even a remote chance at ousting Conservatives at the next GE. Here is a rough estimate of Labour's number of seats in relation with how they fare on the popular vote:

Current voting patterns (including Labour slumps in London, Scotland and Wales) strongly work against Labour. Even an hypothetical Lab-Lib coalition would require a 5% lead over Conservatives and an outright majority roughly a 6.5% lead, which is only a very remote possibility right now. Labour's only consolation might be that it would be even worse if the proposed boundaries for a 600-seat House were enacted, which is obviously not a top priority for the government right now. But might become one sooner than expected.

Stairway To The Stars

There are many ways Labour could achieve a real success at the next GE but detailed data show that they're not there yet and by a wide margin. The road to Number 10 will certainly be a long and winding one with many failure factors all along.

Right now the breakdown of projected seats by Nation and English regions shows that the North-South divide still exists even with Labour doing marginally better than at the previous GE. Labour not only need to make a clean sweep, or close to, in the three Northern regions, which is far from a done deal. They also need major inroads in the Midlands where their position remains surprisingly weak. The three Southern regions are probably out of reach even if a few Canterburyish upsets can't be ruled out and would indeed be needed for a safe majority.

A lot has to be said too on how voting intentions have evolved since the last GE. UK-wide Labour and Conservatives are now tied. Which is in fact bad news for both as Labour are down 2% from 2017 and Conservatives down 4%. The breakdown by nation is also quite enlightening especially if you focus on who is the first party and by how much they lead.

What current voting intentions say about the first party in each nation and how well they do, or not:

• London: Labour by 14%, down from 21% in 2017 and lose two seats
• Rest of England: Conservatives by 3%, down from 7% in 2017 and lose seventeen seats
• Northern Ireland: DUP by 4%, down from 7% in 2017 and lose one seat
• Wales: Labour by 13%, down from 15% in 2017 but narrowly hold all their seats
• Scotland: SNP by 11%, up from 8% in 2017 and gain six seats

Yes you read well, only one of the 2017 first parties has improved its position since: the SNP who (if you believe some sources) have been in a downward spiral for years. In their dreams.

The breakdown of current voting intentions by English regions confirms how risky the next GE might be for Labour. The trends here are fairly similar to what we see UK-wide. Labour don't actually do well as they're nearly 2% down from 2017 on average. They would score some marginal gains only because the Conservatives are doing even worse and have their lead seriously cut down. But Labour losing votes even in their Northern heartlands would possibly put even some long-held seats in jeopardy. Remember these are the lads who managed to lose Morley and Outwood at the 2015 GE and then Copeland in a by-election.

Amazingly Labour still haven't realized that the 'for the many not for the few' talking points don't really get through. Quite simply because voters don't have goldfish memories and a long record of Labstaining on Tory austerity just doesn't cut it. Comes as no surprise that talking points that don't work in Shettleston don't work either in Easington or Knowsley. Labour maintaining ambiguity on Brexit and procrastinating on a non-confidence vote certainly don't help either. Up to them to up their game and at last behave like the true opposition.

Then Came The Last Days Of May

The events of the last few days have made all previous scenarios and speculation irrelevant. The only certainty left is that the Conservative Party and the UK find themselves chest-deep in the kind of heavy shit that could have been easily avoided if the last three years had not been all about scoring cheap points in never ending Tory infighting. On top of that the last weeks have proved only Nicola Sturgeon and Caroline Lucas faced the chaos with statesmanlike attitude while Labour were embroiled in their own brand of infighting and unable to get past their contradictions and ambiguity.

On the other hand the result of the Tory confidence vote is far from ambiguous. Remember that more than a third of Tory MPs hold government positions or are on the government payroll in one capacity or another, from the Prime Minister down to PPSs and Assistant Whips. So the 200-117 result actually means Theresa May no longer has the confidence of a majority of her own backbenchers. This will be the key to the May Deal vote which will happen before 21 January no matter what. As Nicola Sturgeon said the 'confidence' vote is 'barely even a Pyrrhic victory' for May as the Brexit Deal vote will certainly be even worse for the Government than previously anticipated.

The 117 who voted against May can be counted on to vote down the May Deal too. The remaining eight Soubrynistas supported May but would vote against the May Deal. Only eleven other MPs remain as possible abstentions. Below is my estimate on the May Deal vote (updated after the confidence vote) compared to Guardian's (last update before the vote). If the 11 potential abstainers make up their minds and vote the end result would be 441-198 against the government. A resounding defeat that would leave very few options open.

In the aftermath of Mayxit English Labour and their Edinburgh Branch Office will have to talk between themselves and decide once and for all whether they 'categorically' oppose another Independence referendum or are ready to 'consider whatever proposals come from Scotland'. Surely the SNP including IndyRef2 in the snap GE manifesto and making it a major campaign issue would help Labour make up their mind. But of course Labour might want to clarify their position about Brexit first in view of the latest developments.

This week's major event is of course the European Court if Justice's ruling on Article 50. This is the one major game-changer that offers the opportunity for a quick and clean way out of the Brexitocalypse bùrach. All it takes is a vote in Commons but it will probably never happen as Labour are trapped by their pledge to respect the referendum result no matter what. Both major parties are likely to disregard the change in public opinion and the dozens of polls predicting that Remain would now prevail. But the ruling has given new momentum to a People's Vote that even senior Tories are now supporting. Theresa May would then be under strong pressure to turn it into a three-way question which would also see Remain win hands down. Time will tell.

Then the Supreme Court issued their ruling on the Scottish Continuity Bill. It has been described as 'ambiguous' and initially I agreed with this. But it is ambiguous only if you don't factor in that the English Government changed the rules while the game was still being played. Otherwise the ruling would have been even more of a blow for them than it already is. There's a case to be made that the Supreme Court issued a political ruling and not a strictly legal one when they made the ex post facto Westminster power-grab legal.

Obviously Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament are thorns in the asses of the English Government and Westminster Establishment, Tories and Labour combined, and hopefully will continue to be so. The Westminster Establishment certainly regret they deprived themselves of their nuclear option when the Scotland Act 2016 was passed. Part 1 Section 1 of the Act clearly says that both ScotParl and ScotGov can be abolished only if the Scottish people decide so in a referendum. Which is as likely to happen as David Cameron coming back to frontline politics.

Till then stay tuned for more updates and hat tricks.

Wha daur meddle wi' me

Flaming Telepaths © Eric Bloom, Albert Bouchard, Donald Roeser, Sandy Pearlman

Astronomy © Albert Bouchard, Joe Bouchard, Sandy Pearlman
Blue Öyster Cult, Secret Treaties, 1974

Westminster projection - 03.12.2018 update

Battle For Britain

General Election polls never cease to amaze me. Or, more exactly, the mood swings of the English electorate do. They make up 84% of the overall electorate so they hold the key to any GE and should take 84% of the blame if the end result is unmitigated disaster. After a long period of Tory lead which would have given them an outright majority, we're now back to alternating Labour and Tory leads. We have been down that road before and already know it's a dead end street leading to a deadlock.

Trends definitely show Labour closing in on Tories but at slower pace than the last time it happened. Recent YouGov polls, as usual rather Tory-friendly, might explain this in part. But there also some mixed messages in there. Like some LibDem voters switching back to Tories to keep Corbyn out while some others switch to Labour perhaps mistakenly believing that somehow Labour could mitigate the fallout of Brexitocalypse, which they obviously can't.

UKIP are still trending around 5% which will gain them nothing except the dubious pleasure of jeopardizing Tories' chances in a few marginal seats. Finally the SNP are still doing well which strengthens their position both as Scotland's dominant party and as the ones with a mandate for Independence.

Where Are We Now?

My current super-sample includes the last six polls, fielded between 2 November and 27 November. Super-sample size is 9,784 with a 0.96% MOE and it delivers an almost perfect tie between Labour and the Conservatives. Which is where problems begin.

Because of course nothing says 'Trouble Ahead' better than the two main parties both losing votes from the last GE and the number of potentially wasted votes increasing.

The Next Day

As expected crappy voting intentions deliver a crappy seat projection. Full speed ahead into a deadlock with Conservatives bagging 45% of the seats and Labour 43%. As usual different voting patterns translate into a bonus for Conservatives on similar vote shares. But more to the point neither of the two main parties is in a position to form a strong and stable government no matter what combination you try.

The aftermath of such and outcome would be interesting to watch as it is one of these rare situations where both major parties actually lose the election. Guess that both Jeremy Corbyn and the then Tory leader, whoever that might be, would be handed their P45s in no time for failing to deliver. Which of course would do nothing to solve the problem. But there's nothing here that another snap election couldn't cure. Or not. Depending on which way it goes: 1910ish into another dead end that would require extreme solutions (like that deal John McDonnell pledges will never happen) or 1974ish into the narrowest of majorities.

Ashes To Ashes

On this projection the body count would be 37. Labour would get their PortiBalls Moment unseating Amber Rudd. Which is why her chances in a leadership election are close to absolute zero. Tories just wouldn't choose a leader who held her seat by just 346 votes and is at the top of Labour's hit list. Or would they? Second-tier trophies would two Ministers of State (Eustice and Lancaster). Third tier would be three whips (Whittaker, Pursglove, Stephenson) and four PUSS (Smith, Andrew, Doyle-Price, Harrington). And yes you might want to look up the last one before getting any naughty ideas about what it really is.

But the overall balance of gains and losses is far from stellar for Labour. A net gain of just 16 seats is far from the 60 they need for a majority. I fully expect them to blame it on Scotland and I will just stress that current polling has them 49 seats behind Tories in England outside London. A 50-50 split of seats down there would do the trick and it requires 'only' a 3-4% additional swing to Labour. They've done better than this in 2017 so what can possibly be the problem?

Incidentally doing better in London than current polling predicts (down 6% and two seats) would also help Labour, at least symbolically, even if it would possibly switch only a handful of seats. Losing their two unexpected and highly symbolic 2017 gains (Battersea and Kensington) would be a blow to Corbyn in his own backyard. Guess London Labour would put up a serious fight to at least hold these two even if they fail to make further inroads into Tory territory there.

Quicksand

Current polling would deliver 43 marginal seats within MOE, down from 66 in 2017. With only 22 of them in England outside London. Voting patterns Doon Sooth would make a large number of seats more competitive but 313 of the 460 Little England seats (68%) remain safe including 147 current Labour seats and 162 current Conservative seats. Which makes a 1997ish landslide unlikely for the time being unless the cumulative effect of Mayxit, a leadership free-for-all and Brexit triggers some sort of collective Tory meltdown even in their heartlands.

Even without a full Tory meltdown Labour still have two high profile targets worth putting up a fight to turn them into first-tier trophies. Solicitor General for England and Wales Robert Buckland in South Swindon, a Labour seat from 1997 to 2010 and considered a bellwether. Minister of State for Employment Alok Sharma, Amber Rudd's right-hand man at DWP, in charge of Universal Credit and sanctions, which should make him a first priority target. Just like South Swindon, his Reading West seat was held by Labour from 1997 to 2010 and is also considered a bellwether.

Wild Is The Wind

Even after reallocating marginals to the runner-ups, this batch of polls would deliver a quite chaotic situation. At one end of the spectrum Conservatives would be 20 seats short of a majority. I think a resurrection of the Con-DUP deal is highly unlikely as the whole Brexit bùrach has left many open wounds, especially the backstop fiasco. Unless of course DUP can be appeased by another bribe, say £2bn this time. At the other end, even the unlikely Lab-Lib coalition would be 12 seats short of a majority and could probably deliver no better than a short term caretaker government until the second 2019 snap GE. Unless of course Corbyn chooses to boldly go where no Labour PM has gone before….

…. and at last have some adult conversation with the SNP. Right now Labour seem confused about this. Emily Thornberry is ready for a deal to pass an alternate Brexit plan. John McDonnell rules it our for fear it would imply granting a Section 30 order. But his point might be moot anyway as a strong legal case can be made that the Claim of Right, as agreed by Commons last July, gives Scottish Government full authority to call a referendum without a Section 30 order. Would be interesting to try it and see what the Supreme Court has to say.

As an aside I compared my projection with the results you get when using the two projection models currently available online (Electoral Calculus and Election Polling) as I did earlier with the Scottish Parliament projections. As expected the differences between the three models are minimal. Nothing here that can't be explained by the slight differences between the algorithms when moving from pure UNS (Election Polling) to slightly tweaked UNS (Electoral Calculus) to UNS-PNS mix (my model).

A difference of 5-6 seats does not change the conclusions with the current batch of polls. It would become relevant if we had something like 'Labour projected 4 seats shy of majority'. But of course such a result would revive the old debate about Scotland holding the key to Number 10, which is a wholly different story.

Sense Of Doubt

Early last month Survation released a Jumbo Poll (20k sample) soon followed by its breakdown by nation and region. Polls with such a huge sample don't happen often and regular polls usually have 1k-2k samples. Such a huge poll would definitely act as a black hole warping the time-space continuum if it was included in a 'poll of polls'. Whatever other polls fielded over the same period say the Jumbo Poll would dominate and swing the weighted averages to values almost identical to its own results.

When the Survation Jumbo was released I had more than reasonable doubt as it showed Labour leading by 1% while earlier polls had the Conservatives leading for over a month. Which begged the obvious question: what if the Jumbo Poll is the outlier and will totally distort any results and conclusions? Which is the reason why I postponed any update of my projections until I had at least another six polls fielded later that would help assessing the actual trends.

As it turned out the Survation Jumbo was not an outlier but an advance warning of a shift that was broadly confirmed by later polls. Here is the seat projection it would have delivered combined with its regional sub-polls (samples are big enough to not call them just 'subsamples').

This projection is quite close to the one based on my current super-sample. Only noticeable difference is in Northern Ireland where Survation sees SDLP and UUP coming back with two seats each. Which might or might not happen. There haven't been any full scale polls of Northern Ireland since the last GE and the Survation sample is only 555 and down to 394 when undecideds and refusers are removed, not enough to draw conclusions. So for the moment I will discount it and wait until further NI polling reliably shows massive changes from 2017.

So now we are back to the 'business as usual' reasonable doubt about the reliability of all polls. Which I can address only with the alternate scenarios moving the swingometer to the outer limits of MOE. Might be enough or might not, only actual election results will tell.

Something In The Air

From my days in France I remember an expression that always made my day: la niche est tombée sur le chien. Of course a lot is lost in translation as 'the kennel fell on the dog' is certainly less dramatic than 'the walls came tumbling down'. Then this week in Theresa May's life really made me think the kennel had fallen on her and this might very well be just the Prelude To Mayxit. 

Next week will undoubtedly be even worse as the English Government is headed to a massive defeat in Commons. Last Government talking point is that 'under the Brexit deal we have agreed to strike an ambitious new flexible and scalable relationship that allows us to combine resources worldwide for maximum impact' (Steve Barclays's own words). Which doesn't mean fuck all in plain English and certainly won't help clarify what's really in the 585-page agreement.

May winning the vote on 11 December would be a major upset. But odds are heavily against her. Below is my take on what the vote might deliver, and how Guardian sees it as of 3/12, might still change before the vote. I have reallocated all 'independents' (withdrawn the whip mostly) to their original parties and left some room for abstentions as some MPs might actually have last minute second thoughts. But the verdict is clear: FAIL.

Unfortunately what the oppositions have to offer just doesn't cut it. In their own words Labour "respect the referendum result but don't respect the Tories' botched Brexit negotiations". Their alternative is a 'comprehensive and permanent Customs Union' coupled with a 'strong Single Market relationship'. That would be some sort of 'Norway Option' while the SNP's proposal as described some days ago by Ian Blackford would be 'Norway Plus'. Problem is that both are but a pipe dream as EU has made it abundantly clear there will be no further negotiation and it's now decision time. Donald Tusk put it bluntly: if the May Deal is voted down then it's either No Deal or No Brexit. Though the latter sounds to me like way outside the bounds of plausibility as it would require revoking Article 50 and nobody has the weest clue how to get it done clean and quick.

I have a hunch the Tory vote of no confidence in May will then become irrelevant as she will resign (even if Guardian says otherwise) rather than face another predictable and humiliating defeat. Her successor, whoever it might be (and my guts say it won't be Johnson) will then have little choice but to at last call the Long Awaited Snap GE, which technically can still happen before Brexit Day. Some Tories have already expressed concern that it might be a 1997ish debacle, but I'm sure some others secretly with they lose it so that Labour will have to clean up their mess. Time will tell.

If the snap GE happens, looks to me like the SNP's manifesto is already written for them: seek a mandate for Independence while hammering home what a disaster the Labour-assisted Tory Brexitocalypse is for Scotland. And stay on course. Don't let Labour drag you into a debate on how ScotGov could mitigate the impact of Tory policies Labour helped pass. Don't let Tories get away with their betrayal of Scotland and how they lied even to their core electorate. Get the message home at all hustings, especially in areas likely to suffer most from Brexit and where seats lost in 2017 can be taken back this time. Think Moray, Gordon, Banff and Buchan, Dumfries and Galloway, Aberdeen South and be bold. Juist sayin….

And as usual stay tuned for further upsets and updates.

Saor Alba Gu Bràth