Before I start, a quick reminder. For these projections I use only full Scottish polls, that is ones fielded in Scotland only and with a credible sample size (> 1,000). I don't use subsamples from UK-wide polls as they have too big a margin of error (MOE) and also deliver highly volatile results.
Of course there are far fewer Scottish polls than UK-wide polls for the next General Election. Only twelve so far since the 2017 GE. Then all of a sudden we get three in June which will be my super-sample for this projection, see details here.
I think it's far from a coincidence these three polls were fielded in quick succession last month in the middle of political turmoil (SNP walkout, 'power grab' controversy). Surely someone wanted to feel Scotland's pulse on a more regular basis.
The weighted average of these three polls results in these voting intentions (super-sample size 3,114, MOE 1.7%):
That means SNP up 1.8%, Conservatives down 1.6% and Labour down 2.1% from the 2017 GE. Only caveat is that Scottish Greens' and UKIP's voting intentions are based on the premise that both would field candidates in every constituency. If 2017 is any indication this will not happen and these theoretical votes will switch to other candidates. My best estimate is that the tiny UKIP vote will switch to Conservatives. And the Green vote will split roughly 2-1 between the SNP and Labour.
And now the seat projection (detail by SLLM rating and summary):
It's not as spectacular a shift as 2015 or 2017. But 10% of seats changing hands is already quite an achievement when current UK-wide polling predicts next to no change at next GE in the rest of the UK. Below are the six seats projected to change hands. One from Conservatives to SNP. Five from Labour to SNP.
Remember that in 2017 Labour's average margin in the six seats they gained was only 2.14%. So they're highly vulnerable even to small swings in voting intentions. Conservatives' average margin in the twelve seats they gained was 9.04% so gaining them back is quite an uphill battle for the SNP in most cases.
Then of course there remains some uncertainty because of the 1.7% MOE we have with current polling average. The way I see it eight seats are in some sort of 'danger zone'. Meaning a swing roughly equal to the current MOE might tilt them either way and change the outcome. Here they are:
Remarkably only two of the SNP's projected gains are within the danger zone. The swing from 2017 in current polling is enough to make the other four 'Lean SNP' rather than marginals. And only one of the seats currently held by the SNP appears vulnerable (North East Fife) as it was held by only two votes last year.
So here are the possible ranges of seats once we factor in MOE. Remarkably even in my 'SNP min' scenario the SNP would still bag a net gain of three seats. Liberal Democrats also do well as their average margin in the three seats they gained in 2017 was 7.53%. So it would take more than current swing for the SNP to gain any back.
And finally the projected seats breakdown from 'SNP Min' to 'SNP Max' scenario, compared to 2017 results:
Next update will be next time we get further Scottish Westminster polling.
Might be next week. Might be two months from now.
Saor Alba gu bràth
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