The big picture
There have been six UK-wide GE polls over the last two weeks and all have Labour leading from 1% to 5%. This is far from the big Labour surge of 2017 but still enough to make a Conservative victory the least likely outcome if the surprise snap GE of 2018 finally happens. For some reason Labour have done their best so far to prevent it so maybe some more favourable polls will make them change their minds.
Anyway here's what the weighted average of the last six polls says, with Labour now leading by 3%. Super-sample size is 10,620 with a 0.92% MOE.
And again this is not the result of Labour doing especially well as their vote share would be roughly the same as in 2017. It's about Conservatives doing awful and losing votes to both UKIP and Liberal Democrats. Fun part of course being that Brexit brought on UKIP's demise and is now the root of UKIP's rebirth. Guess the Brexit bùrach has taken its toll and will continue to do so. Current polling has about 1.4mil voters switching from the Conservatives to UKIP and 300k switching from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats, more than enough to offer Labour significant gains in marginal seats on a silver platter.
And here's the projected House of Commons on these numbers:
Quite an interesting situation with Labour as the first party but 25 seats short of a majority. Best they could probably do would be risking a minority coalition with the Liberal Democrats. Which would work only if Labour manage to reach some sort of agreement with Greens, Plaid Cymru and the SNP. Not a done deal but anything between full confidence and supply or just neutrality would have to be considered, especially with the Scottish Branch Office of the Labour Party down to two seats and no longer having much leverage.
Seats changing hands
Under current polling 50 seats would change hands including 40 from the Conservatives to Labour. Here are the summary of gains and losses and the complete list which includes some interesting potential Balls moments. This would be about the same number of changes as is 1966, 1987 and 1992. But none of these brought on a change of government while the snap election of 2018 might very well achieve just that.
Apart from the seven SNP gains the most significant projected change, and probably the one that would be most commented upon, would be Iain Duncan Smith losing Chingford and Woodford Green which he has held continuously since the seat's creation in 1997. Or even 1992 if you include its predecessor seat Chingford which had been Norman Tebbit's seat from 1974 to 1992.
But this is North East London where Labour usually do well. In 2017 Chingford and Woodford Green (outlined in yellow) was the odd blue spot in a red area. Also remember that IDS' margin shrunk from a peak 30% in 2010 to just above 5% in 2017. Enough to make it a credible Labour target under currently projected swing. And an upset that wouldn't be that much of an upset after all.
Alternate scenarios
On current polling fewer seats would find themselves in the 'danger zone' (winner's margin below MOE) than was the case in previous projections. About 20 against 40+ previously. Main reason is that a 3% Labour lead would switch the bulk of marginals and beyond to them and leave relatively few seats potentially switching either way on a smallish change in voting intentions.
And now the summary of gains and losses under the two 'extreme' scenarios and the possible coalitions (or lack thereof) the UK might end up with. Even the 'Labour Maximum' scenario would see 60 seats at most changing hands. So you can expect anything but a landslide and probably some interesting days of negotiation after the election.
Note that even in their best case scenario Labour would require a solid coalition deal with the Liberal Democrats if anything like that is even remotely possible. This is worth mentioning as, if this scenario becomes more likely, it would certainly revive the old 'vote SNP get Tory' mantra. I'm not implying it would work or even be statistically feasible but it's quite obvious the Scottish Branch Office of the Labour Party would use it.
Under the current 'Labour Maximum' scenario Labour would bag 303 seats in England and Wales but only 3 in Scotland. Which means they would need an additional 16 Scottish seats to get a one-seat majority and forget the LibDem deal. Achieving this would require a 3% swing from the 2017 result or a 6% swing from current Scottish polling. The SNP surge we have seen recently makes this highly unlikely but that certainly would not deter Labour from campaigning on it. We've been warned.
What about the 'Preferred Prime Minister' polling?
Not all pollsters ask this question and when they do they phrase it differently. But here's the trend anyway based on my usual six-point rolling average.
Theresa May has gone down five points in as many weeks but is still leading by ten points. This result still amazes me even if there are many reasons for it: the never-ending story of anti-semitism within the Labour Party, endless noisy infighting, ambiguity about Brexit, Corbyn's perceived lack of proper leadership, you name it and you get it. Pretty much the same arguments could be used against Theresa May but oddly the Conservatives manage to get away with it. So far.
What to expect next?
Public opinion is as volatile as ever and prone to overreact even to minor events. So nothing can be ruled out. For the foreseeable future my best educated guess is that polls could deliver anything between a 3% Conservative lead and a 5% Labour lead. So as much uncertainty as ever about the possible outcome.
Guess only the Liberal Democrats, UKIP and the SNP will find reasons to be happy with the results of the next batch of polls.
Stay tuned for further updates
Saor Alba gu bràth
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