Scottish Westminster update - 15.07.2018

A bit of history first

Since last GE thirteen Scottish Westminster polls have been published over thirteen months. Which does not mean 'a poll a month' as we have had four in quick succession over the last six weeks. 'Somebody somewhere' definitely wants to feel Scotland's pulse in almost real time since the SNP walkout from the House of Commons and the power-grab controversy.

Not all of these polls have been good news for the SNP. Some were even catastrophic. But the overall trend is getting better recently. Culminating with a Survation poll this week that projects into an unprecedented (since last GE) 49 seats for the SNP. Here is the full history of Scottish Westminster polling over the past months (voting intentions first and then seat projections). Rolling average is based on the last four polls published in June and July.

But all this doesn't tell us what the likely result would be if a surprise snap GE were to happen next week. So let's dig a little deeper.

What do the polls say?

Weighted average of the last four polls says this:

The SNP are 2.6% up from their 2017 result while Labour are 2.6% down and Conservatives 2.3% down. The Liberal Democrats also do relatively well as they're roughly level with their 2017 vote. Usual caveat applies to Greens' and UKIP's voting intentions, both being obviously overestimated. But it actually doesn't matter as my projection model has an inbuilt 'auto-correct' that factors in Greens and UKIP actually standing in only a small number of seats.

Trend also shows the SNP with a strong lead while both Labour and Conservatives have gone down in recent polling. But of course the SNP should not take anything for granted as any future GE campaign will obviously be hard-fought. Also Liberal Democrats could prove tougher competitors than expected as they manage to hold their 2017 votes and could even do a wee smitch better.

Where does that take us?

Here's the projected breakdown of seats by SLLM rating under current polling. Summary is: SNP 42, Conservatives 11, Liberal Democrats 4, Labour 2.

As expected Labour seats prove easier for the SNP to gain back as most of them were won with tiny margins at last GE. Conservative and above all LibDem seats are tougher as most of them saw a double-digit swing away from the SNP last year. The SNP would need to score well above 40% of the vote to have a good shot at most of these seats. Mind you it can be done though probably not in time for this year's surprise snap GE.

Right now seven seats are projected to switch back to the SNP, five from Labour and two from the Conservatives. And in most cases the SNP would have bigger margins than Labour or Conservatives had last year when they gained these same seats.

Alternate scenarios

Seven seats qualify as 'ultra-marginals' and are in the 'danger zone', meaning the winner's margin is within MOE. Remarkably only two of the SNP's projected gains and one current SNP seat fall into that category. This means current polling credits the SNP with a solid electoral base. Of course the surprise snap GE is still at least two months away which is like an eternity in politics. Public opinion could possibly change their collective mind but I honestly don't see that happening anytime soon, at least not on a massive scale.

Even on their 'worst case scenario' the SNP would still manage a projected net gain of four seats (five gains and one loss). Which is no mean feat in the current climate when everything the SNP do or don't do is fair game for a flurry of #SNPBad tweets and brass-necked criticism from the opposition.

I certainly don't want to sound over-optimistic but the Scottish Branch Office of the Labour Party still have a long way to go before they can mount a credible challenge to the SNP's dominant position. They were 10% behind at the 2017 GE and are now projected 15% behind on average and even a massive 19% in the last Survation poll. 

This also applies to the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party who were 'only' 8% behind last year but are now projected 13% behind on average and 18% in the Survation poll.

Right now only the Liberal Democrats can be expected to hold all their seats and maybe even gain one from the SNP (North East Fife). A remote possibility but yet it can't be totally ruled out. Just being cautious here.

Seats breakdown

I know lots of my readers are eager to know which way their own constituency would go. So here's the full list, as usual from worst case to best case scenario for the SNP.

A few steps ahead

Seeing how SNP voting intentions have risen recently I tried a 'what if?' simulation. The point of reference is current polling average with the SNP on 39.5%. I then projected what would happen with SNP vote varying from 38% to 50%. Guess even the SNP can't get much higher than that.

Note that David Mundell would not be the last Conservative MP to go. John Lamont would. Mundell goes down when the SNP reach 49% and Lamont only when the SNP hit 50%. And even with the SNP on 50% Ian Murray and Alistair Carmichael stay. Guess these two have some sort of secret lucky charm.

Also note that there is a noticeable return on investment for the SNP up to 46%. There's not much to be gained beyond that as it is a typical case of diminishing returns:

• up from 38% to 42% = 9 seats
• up from 42% to 46% = 5 seats
• up from 46% to 50% = 3 seats

Most probably the extra cost in campaign expenses would not be worth the extra gains. Except of course for the sheer pleasure of unseating the last two Scottish Tories.

What comes next?

Your guess is as good as mine. Right now my tenner is on at least another poll before the end of the month. With this year's snap election fast approaching and August the worst month for serious polling, I guess 'somebody somewhere' will want an update on Scotland's state of mind quite soon. 

Stay tuned.

Saor Alba gu bràth