The big picture:
I have not updated my Westminster projection for a while simply because recent polling was like Groundhog Day Déjà Vu All Over Again Rerun. Poll after poll after poll sent the same message: Conservatives leading by 2-3% and seat projection almost a repeat of 2017. Then Survation released a new poll on Saturday that has Labour in the lead for the first time in a month.
Of course it might be just an outlier and we definitely need more polls to assess the impact of recent developments (the half-boiled 'Chequers Deal', the shockwave of Boris Johnson's and David Davis' resignations and how all this will wreak havoc within the Conservative Party). But it might also be the first hint of a real change in voting intentions. We'll see…. Anyway weighted average of last six UK-wide polls now says this:
Super-sample size is 8,354 (1.04% MOE). Labour and Conservatives are both slightly down, with Conservative leading by 1.9% (down from 2.4% at 2017 GE). Updated polling also confirms SNP surge that I already discussed in a previous post.
Where does that take us?
On these numbers projected House of Commons (HofC) would look like this:
Obviously this is not an upset but it would put Theresa May in a very uncomfortable position anyway, with Conservative-DUP coalition one seat short of a majority. Such a result would undoubtedly add momentum to any ongoing backbenchers' revolt within the Conservative Party. Also for the first time in weeks Labour would almost make up for their losses in Scotland with a handful of gains in England.
Now bear with me for a second and do the math. A 'Magic Rainbow' coalition of Labour + Greens + LibDems + Plaid Cymru + SNP would also get 321 seats. Leaving Sylvia Hermon to decide who becomes the next PM. Well one can dream. Or can't he?
Back in the real world, here's the summary of projected gains and losses and the list of seats projected to change hands:
With only 12 seats (1.85% of HofC) changing hands this would be an all-time low in
reliably recorded parliamentary history. Only previous GE that came as close to
a status quo as this is December 1910 when only 13 seats changed hands.
Coincidentally that election too delivered an awkward result for the government
of the day (Liberals) and they too had to seek support in Ireland (though from
a wholly different side).
Alternate scenarios
I have two basic alternate scenarios: 'Labour minimum' and 'Labour maximum'. The method is simple: just swing the Labour vote to the lower edge of MOE or the higher edge of MOE respectively, with the Conservative vote swung in the other direction and see what happens. The only exception (as always) is Scotland. I input data from my 'SNP max' scenario into 'Labour minimum' and data from my 'SNP min' scenario into 'Labour maximum'. For a reminder of what's behind 'SNP min' and 'SNP max' see my previous Scottish Westminster projection post.
So here are the statistically possible ranges of seats under current polling and the summary of projected gains and losses under the two 'extreme' scenarios:
Note that even the two 'extreme' scenarios would have only a relatively low number of seats changing hands (24 or 33). 24 would be a record-low since 2001 when only 27 seats changed hands. Wee smitch of useless trivia: in 1951 too only 27 seats changed hands and it's the only time such a record-low number of changes brought on a change of government.
Finally the kind of coalition we might get under my three scenarios:
It's pretty clear for me that Conservatives have run out of options. The only one they have left is further life-support from the DUP. If I were Arlene Foster I would not let Tories get away with a one-shot £1bn bribe. I would go for a yearly £1bn donation for the duration of the term.
Meanwhile Labour have a lot of options open, if only they were bold enough to go all the way. Meaning a truce with the SNP in return for confidence and supply. Even if that means eating their collective hat and disavowing everything the Scottish Branch Office has stood for in the last six years. Throwing Richard Leonard under the bus would be a small price to pay to get Jeremy Corbyn to Number 10.
Breakdown by nation/region:
The projected breakdown of seats by nation/region confirms what we already knew. Labour's weaknesses are in England outside London. They were 98 seats behind Conservatives there in 2017 and are still projected to be 95 seats behind on current polling.
So that's where the battleground is, not in Scotland. It is also quite clear that most Conservatives seats in the South West, South East and Anglia are uphill battles for Labour. Their best gain opportunities are somewhere between the Severn-Wash line and Hadrian's Wall. Surely Labour should prioritize marginals in this area when they allocate campaign resources.
And where do we go from here?
I wish I knew. Next batch of polls will tell us.
After Conservatives' 'septimana horribila' I wouldn't be surprised to see them down a couple of points again. With polling average a tie or even a tiny Labour lead.
Time will tell.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Saor Alba gu bràth
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