Just a short update to my Westminster projection. Two days ago I wondered 'is a change gonna come?'. Today with three more polls in there's definitely something in the air.
Today's super-sample is 7,940 (1.07% MOE) based on the six most recent UK-wide polls. Three fielded before the botched 'Chequers deal' and three after. Two of them were out in the field in part after Davis' and Johnson's resignations. Updated polling average:
Conservatives down to a 1% lead is in itself an upset. Factoring in MOE this basically amounts to a tie. Updated seat projection is pretty interesting too:
Even with DUP support Conservatives would still be 10 seats short of a majority. The summary of gains and losses and the list of seats projected to change hands confirm these have really been bad days for the Conservatives. A handful of Portillo moments in there.
Of course this is just a snapshot and we have to wait for more polls to see if this is just a momentary response to recent events or the beginning of a downward spiral for the Conservatives. You never know.
Stay tuned for further updates.
Saor Alba gu bràth
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